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Oil prices rise in the Gulf amid confusion and Asian stock markets edge higher
The Asian share market matched Wall Street's gains on Monday, after a weak U.S. employment report reduced the risk of an increase in borrowing costs near-term. However, a lack progress?in Gulf Peace talks led to oil prices?creeping?higher. Iran announced on Sunday that it was nearing the final stages of a deal that would define new shipping lanes for the Strait of Hormuz. However, the Iranian government reiterated that this waterway will only be reopened once the United States meets other conditions. Brent crude increased by 0.9% to $84.32 per barrel, as the shipping volume through this vital waterway was minimal. U.S. crude rose by 0.7% to $79.74 per barrel. Fuel costs are on the rise again, raising the stakes for Wednesday's U.S. consumer price report. Analysts expect a 0.1% increase in the headline figure and 0.2% for the core. A positive surprise could reignite speculation about a Federal Reserve hike next month. Michael Feroli is the chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan. He said that our forecast of core CPI at 0.22% was "probably not firm enough" to trigger a Fed hike at its September meeting. However, repeated readings closer to 0.3% might do the trick. We are looking for a rebound in the prices of core goods after a period of two months where they have fallen. The futures markets has reduced the probability of a move in September to 44% from 67% one week ago. Wall Street closed at new records on Friday as the pullback in interest rate risk helped Treasuries rally. Japan's Nikkei jumped 0.6% Monday while South Korea gained 0.5%. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan grew by 0.3%. DOUBLE DIGIT GROWTH IN EARNINGS In Europe, EUROSTOXX Futures 50 and DAX Futures both fell by 0.1% while FTSE Futures dropped 0.4%. S&P futures fell 0.1% while Nasdaq was little changed after a week of positive earnings reports. Analysts from BofA stated that earnings per share were up 30% over the previous year, even after Alphabet's and Amazon's investment gains had been excluded. The 76% EPS rate was the highest since 2021. In a note, they said: "AI is still the leader, with median earnings growth of 28%, compared to 12% for non AI related stocks. However, consensus expects AI's growth to slow down to 16% in the next quarter." This week's earnings are lower, but semiconductor maker Applied Materials and networking equipment?maker Cisco as well as cloud infrastructure technology provider CoreWeave all have positive results. Bond markets saw yields for 10-year Treasuries a little higher, at 4.673%. The market is bracing itself for $125 billion of new issuance in the coming week. The U.S. Dollar had fallen sharply due to the drop in yields, and a general improvement of risk. Investors are still wary about intervening if the yen falls too low. The drop in yields has helped gold that does not pay interest to hold its $4,342 per ounce price after it had risen more than 7% over the last week. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam.)
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Taylor Farms recalls salsa and guacamole over salmonella risk
Taylor Farms announced on Sunday that it was recalling from retailers more than 12 'prepared food items' containing jalapenos. This includes salsas and guacamole. The California-based provider said that it had voluntarily pulled products with jalapeno in them due to a recall by Coast Citrus Distributors. It also stated that it was "no more" sourcing the peppers from a Mexican farmer who?supplied Coast Citrus, while it searches for alternative suppliers. The recall is being conducted as U.S. authorities investigate an outbreak of Salmonella linked to imported jalapeno peppers from Mexico. This outbreak, which began earlier this week, sickened 345 people in 27 states and resulted in 36 hospitalizations. Chipotle Mexican Grill, QDOBA and other restaurant chains have stopped using the peppers. Coast Citrus has recalled and informed customers of the remaining product. Taylor 'Farms has not received any reports of illnesses related to the voluntary recalled products, the statement added. Salmonella infections cause diarrhea, fever and stomach cramps, which can be severe for young children, elderly people, or those with weakened immune systems. The recall is being conducted amid increased scrutiny on food safety following an outbreak of cyclosporiasis, a parasitic disease linked to iceberg lettuce served by Taco Bell. It also coincides with renewed attention given to Chipotle’s previous foodborne illness outbreaks.
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British Columbia receives federal assistance when wildfires force evacuations
The Canadian federal Government said that it would assist British Columbia in the wake of a raging wildfire forcing thousands to flee. It will provide shelter and accommodation for residents who are displaced around Summerland, Peachland. Bald Range Wildfire has spread over 10,300 hectares as firefighters continue to fight the fire. Eleanor Olszewski is Canada's Minister of Emergency Management and Community Resilience. She said in a post on social media that she approved British Columbia's request for federal assistance to provide accommodation for those who were forced to flee their homes because of wildfires. The minister stated that he had asked federal officials to work with the provincial government to make sure the support reached those in need. Wildfire Service of British Columbia said that the hot, dry weather in southern British Columbia has continued to cause fires to spread. It said that poor visibility and "increasing" fires created new challenges for aviation and ground crew response. The turbulence, thick smoke and large fires hampered the operation of ten helicopters, including a night vision helicopter. It said that the province has 34 firefighters from Australia, five from New Zealand and 214 from Mexico who support 'hundreds' of provincial firefighter. Additional international resources are expected to arrive in the next few days. Reporting by Nivedita Balu, Toronto; Editing and proofreading by Alison Williams
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After 18 months of negotiations, Syria and Russia have reached an agreement on the future of Tartous & Hmeimim Bases
After?18 months? of intensive negotiating, Syria and Russia have reached an agreement to settle the future of Russian base?at Tartous?and Hmeimim?, according the Syrian Foreign Ministry. The ministry announced that the Syrian state will take over the management of civil facilities, such as Hmeimim Airport and the commercial berth at Tartous Port, allowing for their gradual integration into the civilian administration. The military sites would be converted into joint training and qualification centres, under new arrangements that preserve the interests of both parties. This transition was to be completed in three months. The Russian naval base at Hmeimim and?Tartous air?base has long been Moscow's main military footholds throughout the Middle East and Mediterranean. Since former President Bashar Al-Assad's ouster in December 2024, their future has been a subject of negotiation with Syria’s new leadership. In a separate statement, Syria's General Authority for Ports and Customs announced that Syria would assume control of the commercial sites operated by Russia in Tartous Port, including Pier No. In a separate?statement, Syria's General Authority for Ports and Customs said that the country would take over the commercial sites previously operated?by Russia at Tartous port, including Pier No. Last month, it was reported that Russia wanted to create a 'commercial logistics hub' at Tartous Port using the pier No. The restricted zone 4 is located outside the naval base. Both sides agreed that the hub would remain under Syrian control and all operations would be subject to approval from Syria's General Authority for Ports and Customs. Reporting by Tala Ramadan, Kinda Makieh, and Feras Dalatey; editing by Alison Williams
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Aramco Jazan facility fire extinguished, Saudi Arabia reports
The Saudi Energy Ministry reported that firefighters extinguished the fire at Saudi Aramco Jazan refinery, which broke out early Sunday morning. The fire was brought under control by Aramco's Industrial Security Teams and the authorities are completing the procedures to handle the incident. This is what the Saudi Energy Ministry said on X. The ministry did not say what started the fire. Jazan lies on the Red Sea, near the border of Yemen. Aramco closed its 400,000 barrels-per-day Jazan'refinery' on July 27, following an attack from Yemen's Houthi militants, which damaged the plant’s Integrated 'Gasification Combined Cycle' (IGCC) and tank farm 'area. The Houthis claimed to have struck Aramco facilities in Jazan and Yanbu at the time. The attacks raised concerns that the U.S./Israeli war on Iran, and Iranian attacks against shipping around the Strait of Hormuz could cause global disruptions. Amin Nasser, Aramco's chief executive officer, said that recent attacks on Aramco facilities caused production interruptions. However, he is confident that operations can be quickly restored. He claimed that the attacks had no financial or operational impact. Houthis have declared a blockade on Saudi Arabia at the Red Sea in response to what they claim is a Saudi siege against Yemen. Riyadh has denied this allegation. Reporting by Hatem Mahar; Editing and proofreading by William Mallard & Lincoln Feast.
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Wildfires are causing wildfires to spread in British Columbia’s wine region.
On Saturday, a wildfire that was rapidly spreading in the western part of Canada forced thousands of residents to leave their homes. Bald Range was out of control, and had grown to approximately 9,500 hectares (23,500 acres). This prompted evacuation orders for Summerland, Peachland, and other districts located west of Okanagan Lake. This region produces the majority of B.C. The?region produces most of B.C. Summerland declared a state-of-emergency and has a population of 12,000 people according to the census of 2021. Peachland has a population of 6,500. "A?lot of farms were affected. We do not know how many buildings have been destroyed. Summerland Mayor Doug Holmes told a reporter that firefighters were still fighting the fire. "We must prepare for the worst." Terry Fries, of Summerland?was watching a game of football on Friday night. A neighbor told him to prepare a bag as the fire was growing. He said that at the time the fire was further back and could be seen behind the hills. B.C. When B.C. Summerland District, located about 45km (28miles) away from Kelowna lost power due to a wildfire on Saturday. Residents were issued a boil-water notice. The municipality stated that untreated water entered the system because it bypassed a water treatment plant due to the wildfire. This year, wildfires have raged in several Canadian provinces including Ontario and Quebec due to hot, dry weather. Firefighters from Mexico and Australia have been helping to fight the fires. About 1,500 firefighters are on the ground in B.C. where dry and hot conditions increase the danger of fires spreading. The province has issued 39 alerts and 38 orders of evacuation in relation to more than 100 fires. According to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre, fires have consumed 4 million hectares (9.9 millions acres) of land in Canada so far this year. Paige Taylor White reported from Penticton in British Columbia, and Nivedita Bali in Toronto. Susan Fenton and Rod Nickel edited the story.
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Fijian Rugby player dies in Japan after suspected heatstroke
The Fijian side said that Saimoni 'Vunilagi', a professional rugby player, died on Saturday after suffering from a'suspected case of heatstroke? while training with his team in southern Japan. After training with his Fukuoka-based team,?Kyushu Electric Power Kyuden Voltex - also known as Kyushu KV, the back rower was admitted to hospital with symptoms of severe heatstroke on Monday. The club confirmed that he died on Friday morning. In recent weeks, Japan has experienced a heatwave with temperatures in some cities exceeding 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit). The government has now designated this as a "brutally warm day." The club in Japan's second division said that "Saimoni has only just joined Kyushu KV but his generous spirit and powerful playing style have raised high expectations for his contribution in the coming season." The club said: "We extend our sincere condolences and pray for his soul's repose." Japan's national team?suffered a narrow defeat to Australia in an evening match on Saturday, played in humid conditions?in Osaka. Due to the extreme heat, both teams took mandatory water breaks in between each half. (Reporting and editing by Pritha Sakar in Osaka)
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British Columbia district issues evacuation orders amid wildfires
The district of Summerland in British Columbia declared a state of emergency early Saturday morning as a rapidly-moving fire swept across western Canada forcing thousands of residents to evacuate. As of early Saturday morning, the 'Bald Range' wildfire had spread to approximately 5,000 hectares and prompted evacuation orders for other districts in this region. According to BC Wildfire Service, the fire began about 15 kilometers (9 miles) west of Summerland. Summerland district, which is located about 45 km from Kelowna said that it lost power due to wildfires on Saturday. It also issued a boil-water notice to residents, saying that untreated water entered the system when the water treatment plant had been bypassed because of the threat of wildfire. According to the census of 2021, Summerland's population is approximately 12,000 people. This year, wildfires have raged in several regions of Canada including Ontario and Quebec due to hot, dry conditions. Mexico, Australia France and New Zealand have all offered assistance to Canada in the fight against these fires. Around 1,500 firefighters are on the ground in British Columbia where hot, dry conditions can increase the likelihood of new fires. Lightning could also spark old fires. The province has also issued 49 alerts and 39 orders of evacuation. Premier David Eby stated earlier this week that he was prepared with additional international?and national firefighters and aircraft. According to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre, fires have consumed 3.9 million hectares of land in Canada so far this year. (Reporting and editing by Susan Fenton in Toronto, Nivedita Balu from Toronto)
Mike Dolan: The boom in stock-pay increases the US economy's drumbeat
Stock market gains are not the real economy but they offer more than just a warm fuzzy feeling for many families. Stock-based compensation for workers may be a factor that helps bind them'more closely'
The U.S. economy has remained stable despite a turbulent post-pandemic period of high inflation, rising interest rates and political and trade uncertainty.
Many theories have been put forward, ranging from robust corporate and household finances to tax "cuts" and a three-year old AI investment boom. One of the most popular is that the stock market's resilience has boosted the so-called "wealth effect" and kept the consumption on track.
The direct impact on compensation of workers of the rising stock price is worth considering, regardless of the merits.
Morgan Stanley released a report this week that quantified some of the impacts of stock-based compensation.
SBC has also risen to record levels, up 9% per year to reach a quarter of a trillion dollar through the last year.
It said that "the technology sector was the largest issuer of SBC (but) practically every sector increased their usage of SBC during the past year."
The report revealed that, over the next 15 years, technology firms will be the largest users of stock-based compensation, with SBC increasing across retail, electronic and tech sectors.
SBC growth varies from 8% for manufacturing to 28% for utilities.
Information technology and communication remain the focus of the awards, with the largest concentration. The 25% increase in expenses last year was equivalent to over $170 billion, or 3.9% of the combined sector revenue.
The aggregate picture is consistent with the anecdotal reports of astronomical tech compensation packages. It may even be understated, given some of those eye-popping tales.
SBC will continue to grow as a result of the IPOs that are expected in this year's AI sector.
Critics argue that SBC is concentrated in the hands of the richest people and that focusing on this issue only amplifies the fears of an expanding income gap and a "K"-shaped economy, as tech stocks soar to new heights.
Although broad economic indicators such as retail sales and GDP may simply register SBC linked income as a part of the mix, they are increasingly registering it as a growing heat.
Consumer spending accounts for almost 70% of the GDP, and it is dominated by the top 20% of income earners in America.
'HUMAN CAPITALISTS'
SBC exploded in popularity when it became an expense for tax and accounting purposes, 20 years ago. SBC accounts for 10% of total compensation but is on the rise. In the tech industry, this share can reach 30%.
Wall Street's fortunes are becoming more closely tied to Main Street. At least, from the perspective of a helicopter.
In recent years, many studies have linked the increase in SBC with what they see as an enigmatic and persistent decline of labor's share in national income.
The 2021 paper by Andrea Eisfeldt,?MindyXiaolan, and Fed board economist Antonio Falato traced the increase in equity-based compensation since the 1980s. It found that this represented 36% of the total compensation for high-skilled workers in U.S. Manufacturing.
The paper concluded that equity-based compensation is not included in macroeconomic models for labor's share, which leads to mismeasurement. SBC in manufacturing almost eliminates the decline of the high-skilled share of labor and reduces it by one-third.
They wrote: "The growing and widespread use of equity-based pay has transformed high-skilled workers from a simple labor input into a class called 'human capitalists.'"
Since then, those findings have become even more relevant.
Stock market?doesn't capture the complexity, diversification and difficulty of real economy. Nor does focusing only on its richest beneficiaries solve those underlying issues.
The stock market has become an increasingly important part of the economy. Not only for companies listed on the stock exchange, but also for employees and households who are paid in equity.
Stock prices may seem to be thriving on the economic fundamentals that Wall Street is based on, but you should always be cautious when they go into reverse.
The opinions expressed are those of Mike Dolan a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
(source: Reuters)