Latest News

Mike Dolan: The boom in stock-pay increases the US economy's drumbeat

Stock market gains are not the real economy but they offer more than just a warm fuzzy feeling for many families. Stock-based compensation for workers may be a factor that helps bind them'more closely'

The U.S. economy has remained stable despite a turbulent post-pandemic period of high inflation, rising interest rates and political and trade uncertainty.

Many theories have been put forward, ranging from robust corporate and household finances to tax "cuts" and a three-year old AI investment boom. One of the most popular is that the stock market's resilience has boosted the so-called "wealth effect" and kept the consumption on track.

The direct impact on compensation of workers of the rising stock price is worth considering, regardless of the merits.

Morgan Stanley released a report this week that quantified some of the impacts of stock-based compensation.

SBC has also risen to record levels, up 9% per year to reach a quarter of a trillion dollar through the last year.

It said that "the technology sector was the largest issuer of SBC (but) practically every sector increased their usage of SBC during the past year."

The report revealed that, over the next 15 years, technology firms will be the largest users of stock-based compensation, with SBC increasing across retail, electronic and tech sectors.

SBC growth varies from 8% for manufacturing to 28% for utilities.

Information technology and communication remain the focus of the awards, with the largest concentration. The 25% increase in expenses last year was equivalent to over $170 billion, or 3.9% of the combined sector revenue.

The aggregate picture is consistent with the anecdotal reports of astronomical tech compensation packages. It may even be understated, given some of those eye-popping tales.

SBC will continue to grow as a result of the IPOs that are expected in this year's AI sector.

Critics argue that SBC is concentrated in the hands of the richest people and that focusing on this issue only amplifies the fears of an expanding income gap and a "K"-shaped economy, as tech stocks soar to new heights.

Although broad economic indicators such as retail sales and GDP may simply register SBC linked income as a part of the mix, they are increasingly registering it as a growing heat.

Consumer spending accounts for almost 70% of the GDP, and it is dominated by the top 20% of income earners in America.

'HUMAN CAPITALISTS'

SBC exploded in popularity when it became an expense for tax and accounting purposes, 20 years ago. SBC accounts for 10% of total compensation but is on the rise. In the tech industry, this share can reach 30%.

Wall Street's fortunes are becoming more closely tied to Main Street. At least, from the perspective of a helicopter.

In recent years, many studies have linked the increase in SBC with what they see as an enigmatic and persistent decline of labor's share in national income.

The 2021 paper by Andrea Eisfeldt,?MindyXiaolan, and Fed board economist Antonio Falato traced the increase in equity-based compensation since the 1980s. It found that this represented 36% of the total compensation for high-skilled workers in U.S. Manufacturing.

The paper concluded that equity-based compensation is not included in macroeconomic models for labor's share, which leads to mismeasurement. SBC in manufacturing almost eliminates the decline of the high-skilled share of labor and reduces it by one-third.

They wrote: "The growing and widespread use of equity-based pay has transformed high-skilled workers from a simple labor input into a class called 'human capitalists.'"

Since then, those findings have become even more relevant.

Stock market?doesn't capture the complexity, diversification and difficulty of real economy. Nor does focusing only on its richest beneficiaries solve those underlying issues.

The stock market has become an increasingly important part of the economy. Not only for companies listed on the stock exchange, but also for employees and households who are paid in equity.

Stock prices may seem to be thriving on the economic fundamentals that Wall Street is based on, but you should always be cautious when they go into reverse.

The opinions expressed are those of Mike Dolan a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)