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Nigeria's biggest refinery imports UAE crude for first time, traders say
Nigeria's 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote refinery has imported ?2 million barrels of crude ?from ADNOC of the United Arab Emirates, ?traders told , ?marking its first ?such purchases ?of crude from the Middle Eastern producer. As demand in Asia has weakened and global crude markets have weakened dramatically, the purchases are being made at a time when the Middle East crude market is able to supply more Middle Eastern crude due to the 'U.S. Iran ceasefire' earlier this month. Three sources have confirmed that Dangote imported a cargo of Umm Lulu oil and another?of Das or Murban in June. The Dangote refinery refused to comment while ADNOC didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. The refinery receives five to seven crude carloads a week from NNPC (Nigeria’s state-owned oil company), benefitting from lower shipping rates. However, it has stated that they require 'about 13 to fifteen cargoes a week. According to Kpler data, the Dangote refinery, which has become a major supplier of middle distillates into Europe because of fuel shortages caused by disruptions in shipping through the Strait, also imported up to 65,000 barrels per day (bpd)?of Libyan oil in 'May. Isaac Anyaogu and Seher Dareen in Lagos, Robert Harvey in London. (Editing by Alex Lawler, Mark Potter and Mark Potter).
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Heatwave tests Ukraine soldiers' Soviet-era tanks
The searing heat of a record-breaking European heatwave, which spilled over into Ukraine, slammed down on soldiers trapped inside a massive steel tank from the Soviet era. The scorching temperatures across Europe have caused power outages, infrastructure damage and overwhelmed healthcare systems. The heat of the battle in Ukraine has created its own challenges. The vehicle becomes very hot when it has completed its mission. The temperature inside can get really hot, said the chief sergeant for the 65th Separate Mechanized Brigade's tank battalion using "Sympatiaha" as his call sign on Sunday. This tank does not have air conditioning, unlike the Western-supplied?Abrams?, Challenger? and Leopard? tanks. Under the summer sun, Soviet-era T-72 battle tanks that weigh between 41-45 tons can become heat traps. Sympatiaha and her fellow soldiers sat on top of their tank in a leafy area, trying to cool off by splashing water onto their faces from a bottle. The temperatures in the area hovered around 30 degrees Celsius over the weekend. They are expected to reach 36 C by Tuesday. The crew remained committed despite the scorching heat to stopping Russian troops from moving forward. "Despite the harsh conditions of the weather - scorching temperatures now, freezing temperature and mud in winter – we are still holding on," he said. "We continue to fight against the Russian forces. We're trying to stop them from advancing, and?push? them out?of?here." Ukrainians in other parts of the country were preparing for a return to hourly power outages as temperatures rose, driving up electricity usage - largely because air conditioners are more popular. (Writing and editing by Ros Russell; Anna Pruchnicka)
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The Fed's hawkish stance on gold could lead to the worst quarter-end loss for gold in 13 years
Gold eased on Monday and was on course for its biggest?quarterly? decline in 13 years as inflation fears stemming out of the Middle East conflict fueled expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would raise interest rates. Gold spot dropped by 0.2%, to $4.008.94 an ounce at 8:59 am. ET (1258 GMT), after reaching its lowest level in November. Prices have fallen 11.3% so far in June. U.S. gold futures fell -0.4% per ounce to $4,022.70. The precious metal is headed for its first quarter decline since 2024, and its steepest quarterly drop since the June quarter of 2013 when inflation fears were stoked by the Gulf conflict. Gold is often seen as a "hedge" against inflation. However, rising rates can weigh heavily on this non-yielding material. Edward Meir of?Marex said that the markets were a bit uneasy over the stability of the?MOU and gold was under pressure because they didn't see much light at the end of the tunnel. A Qatari official has said that top U.S. diplomats in Doha won't hold a meeting at a high level with Iran. This casts doubt on progress made to end the Iran War. The U.S. readings on inflation remain stubbornly high, and far above the Fed's target of 2%. The markets expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high for a long time and even consider rate increases, Meir stated. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders?price in about a 66% chance of a rate hike in September. Investors will now be watching the ADP Employment Data due on Wednesday, and the U.S. nonfarm payrolls due on Thursday to gauge the Fed's policy stance. A recent OMFIF study revealed that central banks were more likely to reduce their U.S. Dollar exposure in the coming decade, due to increased geopolitical worries, and increase their gold holdings. Silver spot fell 0.8%, to $58.2585 an ounce. This is the biggest quarterly decline since the first quarter 2020. Palladium increased 0.2%, to $1,215.94, while platinum fell 0.7%, to $1564.34. Both metals are on course to record monthly and quarterly losses.
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Treasury's Bessent says that "we are watching" as it urges gas retailers in the US to lower prices on their 250th anniversary.
?U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday urged gasoline retailers to lower their prices in honor of the?U.S. The United States celebrates its 250th birthday. President Donald?Trump reiterates his message that "we are watching." Bessent, in an interview with Fox News, said: "I'd encourage all gasoline retailers. Some of them are owned and operated by Big Oil. Others are independent. And some are international convenience stores." "I'd encourage them to act responsibly, particularly?during the 250th anniversary because we are watching." Bessent reiterated his boss's warning to gas stations Monday that they must lower their prices immediately, or else face "big issues." "If Retailers do not?do that, then big problems are ahead!" Trump said in a post on social media that he would "start focusing around the $2.50 per gallon number". The United States will celebrate its founding on Saturday as part of the holiday celebrating the 4th of July. After the U.S., Israel, and other countries launched strikes against Iran in late-February and Iran responded by attacking Israel and Gulf states that have U.S. bases, oil prices spiked. Bessent stated that the Trump administration is expecting gas prices to follow the global price drop. Bessent told "Fox & Friends" that the administration would hold the other side accountable. As the president and his Republican colleagues fight to maintain a narrow majority in Congress, consumers have expressed concern over high gasoline prices.
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Treasury's Bessent says that "we are watching" as it urges gas retailers in the US to lower prices on their 250th anniversary.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday urged gasoline'retailers' to lower prices in celebration of the U.S.'s 250th birthday, reinforcing 'Trump's message with a warning 'we're monitoring' Bessent, in an interview with Fox News, said: "I'd encourage all gasoline retailers. Some of them are owned and operated by Big Oil. Others are independent. And some are international convenience stores." "I'd encourage them to act responsibly, especially during the 250th anniversary of the?Oil Industry, because we are watching." Bessent repeated his boss's warning to gas stations Monday that they must lower their prices immediately, or else face "big issues." "If Retailers don't do ?this, big problems lie ahead! Trump wrote on social media that "start focusing around the $2.50 per gallon number." The United States will celebrate its founding on Saturday as part of the holiday celebrating the 4th of July. The U.S., Israel and Gulf?states that have U.S. bases attacked Israel and the oil prices spiked after late February when Israel and the U.S. launched strikes on Iran. Bessent stated that the Trump administration expected gas prices to follow suit after a 'first agreement' was signed this month. Bessent told "Fox & Friends" that the administration would hold the other side accountable. As the president and his Republican colleagues fight to maintain a narrow majority in Congress, consumers have expressed concern over high gasoline prices.
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GRAPHIC-Volkswagen crisis in five charts
Oliver Blume, the head of Volkswagen, is planning a historic overhaul to adapt to structural changes in the global automotive market. Rising Chinese competitors, tariffs, and weak demand for cars in Europe are all affecting its business model. The crisis has increased scrutiny on Europe's largest automaker. It has been struggling for years with a complex structural design, a weak share performance, and some stakeholders' resistance to painful costs cuts. PARALYSED CONGLOMERATED Volkswagen's "governance" and "structure and ownership" are unique to the auto industry. They combine powerful unions and the billionaire Porsche-Piech family, who control the majority of the voting rights, but not the majority of the equity. The 89-year old group employing more than 657, 000 people still looks like a traditional conglomerate. Some investors believe that this set-up weighs down its valuation. Big Trouble in China Volkswagen's problems are most visible in China, which is the largest auto market in the world and has been a major source of profit for the company for many years. But those days are over. The profits in China have fallen by more than 80% during the last decade. This has led to a greater focus on Europe where the demand is expected remain below the pre-COVID level, and the United States where tariffs cost the company billions. The competition has also intensified. Volkswagen, China's largest automaker for many years, has fallen to third position as domestic competitors with more advanced technology have gained market shares. Porsche, the car that?Volkswagen listed four years ago in a landmark IPO, was among the most?hard-hit. Its margins dropped from 18% to 1.1% in the year following the IPO. Profits Under Pressure Volkswagen's profit margins have more than halved from 2021 to 2025. This is due to fiercer competition, rising labour and energy prices, a weak European market, and growing trade barriers. The company is still the second largest automaker in the world by number of cars sold, after Japan's Toyota. ROCK BOTTOM Volkswagen shares, which have fallen to their lowest levels since July 2010, are also being battered by the upheaval in the auto industry. Stocks are now trading below the levels reached a decade earlier during the Dieselgate Scandal, which is widely considered to be the biggest corporate crisis of the group's history.
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McGeever: Why Trump's tariffs have a lot of bark but little bite
Donald Trump's favourite word is "tariff", and his continued use of the term last year caused fear in the markets, as the U.S. administration unilaterally implemented the most protectionist trade policies since 1930s. The bark was worse than the bite. Just over a month has passed since Trump declared "Liberation Day" and the average U.S. Tariff rate is lower in April 2025 than many had feared. The daily effective pre-substitution rate, at just over 10%, is four times higher than it was at the end of 2024. Tariffs are barely a?record in today's financial markets. This is partly because investors are more concerned about real wars than trade wars. The economic impact of Trump’s tariffs is also not as bad as many people feared. This could be because the trade war coincided a technological boom. Perhaps that is too simplistic. It may be years before the full impact of the redrawing of geopolitical and trade alliances in the world is known. Unexpected negative shocks could be on the way. The fact that STATISTICALLY INSIGNIFICANT tariffs have had a muted impact on the economy over the last year is partly explained by a simple fact: Actual levies were lower than statutory rate. This is the main argument of a Brookings Institution article by Pablo D. Fajgelbaum of University of California, and Amit Khandelwal of Yale University. By December of last year, the authors found that 57% or so of U.S. imported goods were still duty-free. This includes the majority of goods imported from Canada and Mexico, under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The Trump administration will formally?declare Wednesday that it won't extend the 32-year old North American Free Trade Zone. But that only starts a new review process. Tariffs at the border are often lower than headline rates due to legal loopholes or special agreements. The retaliation to Trump's tariffs was mostly modest or short lived, with China being the only major trading partners who offered a firm and sustained response. Hyperscalers invested hundreds of millions of dollars in infrastructure and chips to boost global trade. According to the Brookings article, the net effect of tariffs has been only between 0.1% and 0.1% of GDP until December. The Brookings paper says that these?findings are in line with the analysis done by The Budget Lab, a Yale-based research group. It estimates that tariffs will cause the U.S. to be 0.1% less prosperous in the long term, which is the equivalent of $30 billion in 2025 dollars. Other words, statistically significant, but not at all in the near future. Markets vs Real Economy Try telling that to U.S. customers, who are forced to pay 90% of Trump's Tariffs. In an April Federal Reserve report, the paper found that tariffs are solely responsible for the excess inflation of core goods from January 2025. The same paper, however, also indicated that the tariff pass-through is now essentially complete. It was, in other words, a price increase that happened only once, as the Trump Administration had claimed. If true, this would be good news for Americans whose personal savings rate, which has fallen to the lowest level in four years due to higher prices, is now below 3%. There is also another side to the story. Tariffs are taxes that fall on the person who pays them. Usually, this is the consumer. They are a direct source of revenue for the government, reaching $264 billion in 2017. This is more than three times the revenue in 2024 and represents 0.83% GDP, which is the highest since over a century. Theoretically, the revenue generated by tax cuts and higher spending should be able to offset some of the impact on consumers. SLOW BURN? But investors shouldn't become complacent. Although trade uncertainty has decreased, it is still very high. According to the Tax Foundation, the U.S. tariff policies have changed more than fifty times since the start of Trump's second tenure. There's no reason to think that this is the end, considering the Trump administration's willingness to use tariffs to threaten foreign policy negotiations. Investors have mostly ignored these concerns. Rebecca Harding, trade economist and writer whose latest book "The World at Economic War" was published in late 2012, says that markets have become detached from the reality of the economy. The cost of doing business internationally will continue to rise as a result of increased trade uncertainty. Small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) will struggle to keep up with the demands. It's clear that the predictions of tariff doom by many economists have been wrong, but it could be just a question of timing. Brexit is a cautionary tale. The UK economy didn't immediately crash after Britain voted in 2016 to leave the European Union. There is no doubt that 10 years later, the economic damage has been severe. It is still unclear whether the slow-burning economic impact of tariffs on the U.S. will be similar. However, it's worth asking. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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EU announces new steel import quotas in order to protect the industry from overcapacity
The European Commission announced quotas for the new system to limit duty-free imports of steel into the EU. This move was aimed at protecting the steel industry in the bloc and increasing its capacity utilization. The new rules reduce the annual EU tariff-free import quotas by 47%, to 18,3 million metric tonnes, and introduce a 50% duty for steel products that are imported outside of the quota. The Commission stated that the rules will come into force on Wednesday and aim to increase the steel capacity utilization within the EU to 80%. Eurofer, the European steel association, says that the new rules will only increase capacity utilization from 67% to 73%-75%. Eurofer's Director General, Axel Eggert said that the EU steelmakers will likely recover 15 million metric tonnes of production. This is about half of what they have lost in recent years. The import quotas are divided into two parts: one half is reserved for partners in free-trade agreements (FTAs) and the other half is available to all trading parties, including those who have an FTA. The Commission said that many of these partners would receive country-specific quotes proportionate to the volume they have historically produced. It said that "most of the EU FTA partners' market access will be reduced by a significant amount compared to the average 47% reduction foreseen in the Steel Regulation." The Commission stated that a "significant number" (?) of partners has provisionally agreed with these allocations. The Commission stated that the rules are needed to "protect the European Steel Industry from Overcapacity and Dumping Practices elsewhere in the World". It said that "persistent global steel overcapacity?remains as a serious problem on a global scale and continues to distort the international markets." The measure "restores fair competition on a market that has been affected by distortions due to overcapacity", it said. Eggert, Eurofer, said that to have a more significant impact on the steel industry, it may be necessary to extend the measure to downstream industries, such as those who laminate steel or stamp out sheets for cars. Bart Meijer and Phil Blenkinsop; Inti Landauro, Hugo Lhomedet, and Susan Fenton, edited by Sudip K. Gupta.
Mike Dolan: The boom in stock-pay increases the US economy's drumbeat
Stock market gains are not the real economy but they offer more than just a warm fuzzy feeling for many families. Stock-based compensation for workers may be a factor that helps bind them'more closely'
The U.S. economy has remained stable despite a turbulent post-pandemic period of high inflation, rising interest rates and political and trade uncertainty.
Many theories have been put forward, ranging from robust corporate and household finances to tax "cuts" and a three-year old AI investment boom. One of the most popular is that the stock market's resilience has boosted the so-called "wealth effect" and kept the consumption on track.
The direct impact on compensation of workers of the rising stock price is worth considering, regardless of the merits.
Morgan Stanley released a report this week that quantified some of the impacts of stock-based compensation.
SBC has also risen to record levels, up 9% per year to reach a quarter of a trillion dollar through the last year.
It said that "the technology sector was the largest issuer of SBC (but) practically every sector increased their usage of SBC during the past year."
The report revealed that, over the next 15 years, technology firms will be the largest users of stock-based compensation, with SBC increasing across retail, electronic and tech sectors.
SBC growth varies from 8% for manufacturing to 28% for utilities.
Information technology and communication remain the focus of the awards, with the largest concentration. The 25% increase in expenses last year was equivalent to over $170 billion, or 3.9% of the combined sector revenue.
The aggregate picture is consistent with the anecdotal reports of astronomical tech compensation packages. It may even be understated, given some of those eye-popping tales.
SBC will continue to grow as a result of the IPOs that are expected in this year's AI sector.
Critics argue that SBC is concentrated in the hands of the richest people and that focusing on this issue only amplifies the fears of an expanding income gap and a "K"-shaped economy, as tech stocks soar to new heights.
Although broad economic indicators such as retail sales and GDP may simply register SBC linked income as a part of the mix, they are increasingly registering it as a growing heat.
Consumer spending accounts for almost 70% of the GDP, and it is dominated by the top 20% of income earners in America.
'HUMAN CAPITALISTS'
SBC exploded in popularity when it became an expense for tax and accounting purposes, 20 years ago. SBC accounts for 10% of total compensation but is on the rise. In the tech industry, this share can reach 30%.
Wall Street's fortunes are becoming more closely tied to Main Street. At least, from the perspective of a helicopter.
In recent years, many studies have linked the increase in SBC with what they see as an enigmatic and persistent decline of labor's share in national income.
The 2021 paper by Andrea Eisfeldt,?MindyXiaolan, and Fed board economist Antonio Falato traced the increase in equity-based compensation since the 1980s. It found that this represented 36% of the total compensation for high-skilled workers in U.S. Manufacturing.
The paper concluded that equity-based compensation is not included in macroeconomic models for labor's share, which leads to mismeasurement. SBC in manufacturing almost eliminates the decline of the high-skilled share of labor and reduces it by one-third.
They wrote: "The growing and widespread use of equity-based pay has transformed high-skilled workers from a simple labor input into a class called 'human capitalists.'"
Since then, those findings have become even more relevant.
Stock market?doesn't capture the complexity, diversification and difficulty of real economy. Nor does focusing only on its richest beneficiaries solve those underlying issues.
The stock market has become an increasingly important part of the economy. Not only for companies listed on the stock exchange, but also for employees and households who are paid in equity.
Stock prices may seem to be thriving on the economic fundamentals that Wall Street is based on, but you should always be cautious when they go into reverse.
The opinions expressed are those of Mike Dolan a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
(source: Reuters)