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Dollar increases as US-Iran failed peace talks spark safe haven demand

Investors sought relative safety in the dollar against other major currencies during early Asia trading Monday. This was after marathon talks between Washington, D.C. and Tehran failed to produce a peace agreement, plunging the?markets into uncertainty for a seventh consecutive week.

Donald Trump said on Sunday that the U.S. Navy will begin blockingading the Strait of Hormuz. This is a choke point for 20% of daily energy supplies in the world, which?Iran has effectively shut down since the start of the war late February. This has caused oil prices to rise by more than 30%, and fueled fears of inflation.

As Asian markets opened, the dollar rose, which had acted as a haven due to the limited exposure the United States has to import energy-price inflation. The euro fell 0.53% to $1.1663, while the Japanese yen gained 0.1% to trade at 159.43.

US stock futures dropped?more that 1% late on Sunday in U.S. trading.

After last week's announcement of a ceasefire, the S&P 500 recovered this week as the market hoped that the Middle East conflict was nearing an end. By Friday, the S&P 500 had recovered nearly all of its losses since the U.S. began military strikes with Israel in late February.

Investors initially reacted positively to the announcement of a ceasefire between the U.S.A. and Iran, which was made on April 7, by selling some oil and investing some money in risk assets like stocks. Concern over the fragility has led to a unwinding of these trades.

Fiona Cincotta, senior market analyst at City Index, said: "This is a complete unwinding of any optimism going into the peace negotiations?into this play of dollar safe-haven oil jumping and selling everything else."

On the other hand we've seen markets exaggerate at times. "I think the market struggles to price this scenario correctly because there's so much uncertainty and so many unknowns."

The Australian dollar and the sterling, which are more risk-sensitive currencies, have been under pressure. They fell by 1.1% and 0.5% respectively.

Investors have priced in the possibility that several central banks such as the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England will be inclined to raise interest rates in this year. This is in stark contrast to expectations before the war, when borrowing rates were expected to remain unchanged or even fall.

The global equities are still around 2% lower than they were before the war broke out. This is despite optimism that the United States and Iran would reach a resolution.

Since late February, gold has dropped about 10% as investors now prefer the dollar to gold as a safe haven.

The market has returned to its pre-ceasefire conditions, with the exception that the US is blocking the remaining Iranian-linked oil flows of up to 2 million barrels through the Strait of Hormuz. This was confirmed by Saul Kavonic of MST Marquee, an analyst based in Sydney.

The key question remains whether the U.S. The key question is whether the U.S.

Trump acknowledged on Sunday the possible political consequences of the war by saying that oil and gasoline prices may remain high until the midterm elections in November.

(source: Reuters)