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US yields rise after Middle East data
U.S. treasury yields rose modestly on the day following a flurry economic data as investors 'kept a keen eye on any Middle East developments that could threaten the current truce in?Iran War. U.S. crude jumped 8.55% to $100.42 a barrel and Brent shot up to $99.30 up 4.8%, as concerns over a fragile two-week Middle East truce raised fears that energy flow through the Strait of Hormuz would remain restricted. Shippers were reluctant to resume transit. The traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was well below 10% of its normal volume on Thursday despite a U.S. - Iran ceasefire. Tehran asserted control by warning vessels to stay within its territorial waters. Israel has bombed additional targets in Lebanon which Tehran claims must be included in the truce, further jeopardizing it. The Federal Reserve finds it hard to justify rate cuts when oil prices are high. The Treasury market has completely handed over the reins to the commodity sector and the energy space. Thomas Urano is co-chief investment officers at Sage Advisory in Austin. It's not good that oil prices will be in the hundreds or even the 90s. This will keep inflation high. It will be very hard for the new Fed Chair to say that we need two rate cuts. TREASURY YIELDS EDGED?HIGER The yield of the benchmark U.S. Treasury?note has increased 2.2 basis points, to 4.313%. The yields increased after Commerce Department data revealed that gross domestic product grew at a 0.5% annualized pace, down from 0.7% previously reported and below the 0.7% estimated by economists. The 30-year bond yield rose by 2.4 basis points, to 4.91%. The personal consumption expenditures index rose 0.4% in February, which was expected, following a 0.3% increase unrevised in January. Initial jobless claims for the week increased by 16,000, to 219,000 seasonally adjusted, exceeding the 210,000 estimated. The part of the U.S. Treasury curve that is closely watched, measuring the difference between yields of two-year and 10-year Treasury bills, as an indicator of expectations for economic growth, was positive by 51.9 basis points. The week's sales will be capped on Thursday by $22 billion in 30-year bonds. RATE CUT?PROSPECTS MINING The two-year U.S. Treasury?yield (which typically moves in line with interest rate expectation for the Fed) eased by 0.2 basis points, to 3.792%. The Fed's top officials warned earlier this week about the inflation risk posed by the rapid rise in oil due to the "war" even though it slowed the economy and labor market. The minutes of the Fed's March 17-18 meeting were released on Wednesday. They showed that a growing number of policymakers believed that higher interest rates might be necessary to combat inflation, which continues to exceed the central banks' 2% target. According to CME's FedWatch Tool the markets are pricing in 23.3% of a chance that the Fed will cut rates by at least 25 basis points during its December meeting. This is about on par with expectations a week earlier, but down from 82.5 percent a month before. The five-year U.S. Treasury inflation-protected Securities (TIPS), which are backed by the Treasury, have a breakeven rate of 2.610%. This was down from 2.598% in April. The 10-year TIPS Breakeven Rate was at 2,351% last, which means the market expects inflation to average 2.4% per year over the next decade.
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USA Rare Earth is considering building a French magnet plant
USA Rare Earth is considering building a permanent magnetic?plant? in France, according to its CEO, who announced the decision on Thursday after paying 40 million euros ($47m) for a stake of French rare earth processing company Carester. The United States, Europe, and other countries are working to secure domestic supplies of rare Earths. These are essential for green energy, electronics, and defence, and they want to reduce their dependence on China, the world's largest producer. The company announced that as part of its efforts to create an integrated rare-earths operation,?which includes mining, processing, and magnet manufacturing, USA Rare Earth would purchase a 12.5% share in Carester. Carester is currently constructing a processing facility in southern France. InfraVia will buy the same stake in Carester, which is a crucial?minerals funds seeded by France, according to the statement. Barbara Humpton, CEO of the company, told investors that "they (the French government), are interested in... supporting a possible USA Rare 'Earth magnet-making plant in southern France." Robert Steele, CFO, declined to provide any further information or timeline. USA Rare Earth received a $1.6billion debt-and equity funding package from the U.S. Government in January. It has a magnet manufacturing plant in Stillwater Oklahoma that is expected to open later this year. Carester's French facility will produce heavy rare Earths which are needed for magnets. However, analysts expect that they may be hard to find due to expected shortages. In the deal, USA Rare Earth will receive 15-year supply agreements and offtake agreements. This allows it to send materials from its Round Top Mine in Texas for processing, then buy the processed heavy rare earth oxides. USA Rare Earth, through its unit Less Common Metals, which is a British company that manufactures rare earth alloys and metallics, signed a contract with Carester last May to build a facility in France. Carester has received 216 millions euros from Japanese sources and the French government for its Caremag unit. This unit is expected to produce 1,400 tons of rare earth oxydes a year using recycled magnets and mining concentrations.
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Greenland's prime minister rejects Trump's remarks as NATO tensions increase
Greenland's Premier Jens-Frederik Nielsen stated on Thursday that he represents an?advanced nation seeking to?maintain the global order. He was responding to the latest remarks about the Arctic Island by U.S. president Donald Trump. Trump vented his frustration on Wednesday with NATO, as relations reached a point of crisis?over Iran war. He stated that the military alliance wasn't?around when it was needed and that he remembered Greenland still, a "BIG POORLY RUN, PIECE ICE". Nielsen said: "What's important to us is maintaining the 'world community' that we built after World War Two, where we have a defence alliance that we respect and where international law is respected by everyone." "These things are under attack now and I believe that allies should work together to try to maintain them. He said, "I hope that this will happen." NATO allies were already scrambling earlier this year to keep the alliance together after Trump renewed his bid to seize Greenland, from Denmark, another NATO member. Nielsen reacted on Thursday to Trump's characterization of his country. "We aren't some piece of ice. He said that we are "a proud population of 57, 000?people who work every day as good global citizens with full respect for our allies." (Reporting and editing by Louise Rasmussen, Terje Solsvik, Stine Jacobsen)
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Hong Kong provides diesel subsidies and toll waivers in order to reduce fuel costs
Hong Kong has taken'steps to help the transport sector - with rising fuel prices - on Thursday. A HK$3 per litre'subsidy is being offered on 'diesel used by commercial vehicles and vessels, and a 50% discount on tolls for commercial traffic that uses government tunnels. Hong Kong, which imports almost all of its energy, relies on fossil fuels for ?power generation and has some of the world's highest gasoline prices, ?according to globalpetrolprices.com. The government announced that the measures would support diesel-powered?public and commercial vehicles?, vessels?and related industries for a period of two months. They will cost approximately HK$1.8 billion (US$230?million). The statement said that private cars and motorcycles will not be included in the 'tunnel toll reduction. This is expected to cost HK$160m in revenue. The Inter-departmental fuel supply monitoring task force told John Lee, Hong Kong's leader, that 80% of the petroleum products imported into the city are from mainland China. Its government is in constant communication with Beijing, to ensure stable energy supplies. Hong Kong's transportation sector is being affected by rising fuel prices and concerns about supply, as some shuttle buses and ferries reduce services. A task force for public transport will be?also?established?to?fast-track operators like?public buses?and ferries?who are seeking flexibility in managing higher fuel costs.
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Colorado State forecasters see below-average hurricane season
Colorado State University weather forecasters said that the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane'season is expected to be below historic averges because an 'El Nino' formation will send?winds through the southern U.S. which could tear tropical storms apart. The CSU team predicts that an El Nino of moderate to strong intensity is likely at the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, which is August-October. The Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1, and lasts until November 30. The fiercest storms are usually seen between August and October. Colorado State's closely-watched forecast predicts that two major hurricanes with wind speeds exceeding 111 miles per hours (179 kph) will develop in 2026, out of the total of six named tropical storms. Between 1991 and 2020, the 'average hurricane season' produced three major hurricanes from a total of seven hurricanes. In the eastern tropical Atlantic, sea surface temperatures are also cooler than normal. In the western tropical Atlantic, sea surface temperatures are above average. This could help storm development. Four of the five hurricanes in 2025 will be deemed major. In 2025 there were 13 named storms, which caused more than $9 billion worth of damage and claimed 126 lives. (Reporting and editing by Jan Harvey; Erwin Seba)
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Polestar CEO speaks up for used car market as fuel prices rise and EVs become cheaper
?Polestar's CEO Michael Lohscheller stated on Thursday that used car sales are exceeding new vehicle sales, due to a rise in gasoline and diesel costs from the war in Iran driving customers towards less expensive EV options. Online car platforms reported last month that the war in Iran has boosted used electric vehicle sales in Europe. "Used cars are growing faster than brand new vehicles, especially since so many people have come forward and said, "we are price-sensitive." Lohscheller said after the company announced its first-quarter results: "We prefer used cars and look at electric vehicles." Polestar's sales of used cars?rose 47% during the quarter. The overall sales increased 7%, to 13,126 vehicles. Polestar stated in February that it expected a low-double-digit growth in volume this year, without giving any financial forecast. The company announced on Thursday that it will disclose its outlook when it releases its fourth-quarter results. It is required to do so by the end of April, but the exact date has not been set. Polestar has been focusing its strategic efforts on the European'market,' a move it made in the last year to increase?margins? and revenue?amid an uncertain global EV market and a rise in costs?and widening losses? Lohscheller said that there is a growing market for electric vehicles in southern Europe, which still has low EV penetration but also large markets that could soon overtake Sweden. The company's performance in Europe is still strong, but it has struggled in other markets, such as the U.S., where the company sold only 735 cars during the third quarter. This represents just 5.6% of the total sales, compared to 11.1% in the previous year.
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Gold prices continue to rise, but focus is on the US-Iran ceasefire data and CPI data
The gold price rose?on Friday as the?U.S. dollar weakened. Dollar lent support as?investors assessed?the durability of a fragile truce between Washington and Tehran, and awaited U.S. Consumer Price Index results. At 9:16 am, spot gold was up by 0.9% to $4,755.99 an ounce. ET (1316 GMT), after reaching a high of nearly three weeks in the previous session. U.S. Gold Futures rose 0.1% to $4.781.80. The U.S. Dollar index fell. The dollar is weaker, making bullion more affordable for buyers who use other currencies. Bob Haberkorn is a senior market strategist with RJO Futures. He said that the weaker dollar helped gold to regain its footing. However, there was caution on the market, as traders tried to interpret the meaning of the ceasefire. He added that "the ceasefire headlines for 'gold were very bullish, but prices are pulling back from recent highs because cracks have shown." Tehran claims that Israel must include more targets in Lebanon in the ceasefire. However, there is no evidence to suggest Iran has lifted its blockade of Strait of Hormuz. The Federal Reserve could be forced to raise rates longer if negotiations break down and the war flares up again. This would reduce the appeal for non-yielding, gold, even though it is a 'traditional inflation hedge. Since the U.S. and Israel's war against Iran began on February 28, spot gold has fallen by nearly 10%. The U.S. Consumer Price Index - March data is also expected to be released this Friday. Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, grew by 2.8% over the past 12 months, according to estimates, and is likely to rise further in March. Silver spot gained 0.5%, to $74.46 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.8%, to $2,046.54 per ounce. Palladium fell 0.4%, to $1,548.23. (Reporting and editing by Kirby Donovan in Bengaluru, Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru)
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Andy Home: The drop in copper imports from China marks a change in the market's power.
The two-week ceasefire of the Iran War has helped to dispel some of the macroeconomic doom that had been enveloping copper prices, but the problem could be even worse for copper bulls. China, as the largest consumer of copper in the world, has shown that it will not pay the high prices of January when the London Metal Exchange's three-month contract for copper reached a nominal record of $14,527.50 metric tons. According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics which compiles trade data based on official customs statistics, the country's net copper imports fell?to 125350?tons during February. This is the lowest monthly total since April 2011. It is natural for buyers to react to high prices in any commodity. However, China's influence over copper prices is increasing steadily, due to its growing domestic production capacity. Import SLUMP, Export Surge Since September, the LME copper prices have been rising and reaching their January peak. Inbound shipments continued to slow, falling to 454,000 tonnes in the first two month of 2026. This is a drop of 25% compared to the same period in 2025. Chinese smelters are also increasing exports to take advantage of the strong price. The outbound shipments increased to 172,000 tonnes in January-February, up from 49,000 tons during the same period last year. China's net copper draw from the rest of the world in January and February was only 283,000 tonnes, the lowest start to any year since 2006. Some exports to Europe and the U.S. likely came from China's warehouse stocks, as traders filled the supply-chain gap left by the U.S. trade tariffs last year, which brought metal into the United States. Chinese metal is also flowing directly to LME storage in South Korea, Taiwan and other countries. According to the LME monthly report, the amount of Chinese-brand Copper on LME warrant increased from 87.475 tons at end December to 155.600 tons at end February. The big changes in China's trade in copper are a major reason why LME stocks of 385.275 tons have now risen above their peak in 2018 and returned to levels last seen in 2013 HOLIDAY HIGH The massive build-up of copper in Chinese domestic stocks is remarkable given the sharp decline in imports. Shanghai Futures Exchange's (ShFE) stock always increases around the Lunar New Year period, but this year was more than usual. Early March saw a peak of 433,500 tonnes, up from a holiday record of 268,300 last year. The previous record for the season was 380,000 tonnes in 2020 when holidays coincided in China with COVID-19. ShFE stocks are down to 301,000 tonnes. There's still plenty of metal left to be used before we can start importing. The Yangshan copper is a premium The usual bounce after the holidays has been seen in, an indicator closely watched of spot demand for imported vehicles. Shanghai Metal Market, a local data provider, estimates the premium over LME base prices at $65 per tonne, up from $ 20 in January but still a long way off $ 89 this time last year. The Chinese manufacturing sector has grown for four months in a row, but the impact of this growth on the copper markets has been mitigated due to high inventories. GROWING POWER China's increasing resilience to high prices is based on the continued expansion of domestic smelting capacities. Macquarie Bank estimates that the country's?production of refined copper will grow by 9% annually in 2025. This translates into an additional million tons metal. Chinese smelters consistently outbid Western counterparts to secure raw materials in a competitive copper concentrates market. Macquarie estimates global mined production will grow by 1.8% annually in 2025. China's copper concentrate imports increased by 7.8% during the same time period. Imports for recyclable copper, another possible refinery feedstock, rose by 4% on an annual basis. China's ability, to secure enough raw materials to fuel the country's rising self-sufficiency of refined copper at a price for everyone else. Macquarie estimates that Western smelter output will shrink by 5.1% between 2025 and 2030. This shift in China's production power increases its ability to withstand higher prices by being able both to reduce?imports or to increase exports. The?copperbulls' will return to full cry if the Iran war de-escalates. Don't expect China will follow the bull script. Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
Barclays: Brent price forecasts are at risk of being higher than expected if the flow from Hormuz is delayed.
Barclays said on Thursday that a rapid normalization of the 'flows through Strait of Hormuz' aligns with its forecast of Brent crude oil at $85 per barrel in 2026. However, it warned that delays or further escalation of prices could cause them to rise from their current levels. Amarpreet Singh said that despite the ceasefire, the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz has remained subdued. Recent data confirms their estimate of the supply disruptions of around 13-14 millions barrels per day.
There has been some pushback, however. Some market participants have pointed to inventory data and suggested that the demand may have already?adjusted enough to keep prices in check. "We do not believe so."
The bank noted that its base scenario allowed for a demand compression of more than 1.2 million?bpd compared to the estimates made before the conflict.
It still believes that Brent prices could rise this year, if demand slows down.
The price of oil rose by over 3% on Thursday, as concerns about the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East that lasted for two weeks raised fears over energy flow restrictions through Strait of Hormuz.
On the hope that the ceasefire will lead to a reopening of strait, both benchmarks dropped below $100 a barrel during the previous trading session. WTI recorded its largest decline since April 2020. There was no indication that Iran had lifted its blockade of strait of Hormuz which caused the biggest disruption in?global energy supply history.
Barclays expects Brent to be $80/bbl by the end of this year, according to its base scenario. It also suggested that the markets have likely been priced for a normalization outcome. Reporting by Ishaan Verma and Swati Arora in Bengaluru Editing Keith Weir
(source: Reuters)