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Morning Bid Europe-Powell’s punch back shocks markets

Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets

Investors still can't wrap their minds around the latest escalation of the fight between U.S. president Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve. Chair Jerome Powell is fighting back against the "effort" to control interest rates and the Fed.

The growing unrest in Iran where, according to an international rights group, more than 500 people were killed, underscored also the geopolitical issues that markets will be navigating by the beginning of 2026. This is why safe-haven assets are well supported.

The markets opened trading on Monday after the Trump administration announced that it had threatened to prosecute?Powell for Congressional testimony he made last summer regarding a Fed building remodeling project. Powell claims it's "a pretext" for him to gain influence over the central banks and monetary policies.

Powell stated that the question is whether or not the Fed can continue to set rates of interest based on economic and evidence-based criteria, or if instead "monetary policy" will be dictated by political pressures or intimidation.

Although the immediate market reaction was to sell dollars and lower stock futures, what this means for interest rates wasn't clear. Investors sought safety as gold prices broke $4,600 an ounce for first time.

The news was disturbing, but the market's reaction was measured. Investors waited for clarity about the Fed's autonomy, and the direction of rates in the short term.

Markets may now expect that the Fed will kowtow and freely cut rates once the new Fed head settles in after May, when Powell's tenure ends. Futures pricing shows two rate cuts for the year.

As the Japanese markets were closed on Monday, no cash trading was conducted in Treasuries during Asian hours. Once London opens, the focus will shift to the Treasury market.

Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact

Economic event - Germany balance account for November and euro zone sentix for January

(source: Reuters)