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EU scientists predict that 2025 will be the second or third hottest year in history.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service of the European Union (C3S), said Tuesday, that this year will be the second or third warmest in history, possibly only surpassed by the record-breaking heat in 2024. The latest data from C3S is the result of last month's climate?summit at which governments failed to agree on substantial new measures to cut greenhouse gas emissions. This reflects strained geopolitics, as the U.S. rolled back its efforts and some countries sought to weaken CO2-cutting mechanisms. C3S stated in a bulletin that this year is likely to be the last of the three-year period where the average global temperature has exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius. (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). This was the time when humans first began using fossil fuels in industrial quantities, between 1850-1900. Samantha Burgess is the strategic lead for Climate at C3S. She said, "These milestones do not reflect abstract figures - they show how climate change is accelerating." Extreme weather has continued to affect?regions across the globe in this year. Last month, Typhoon Kalmaegi caused the deaths of more than 200 people in the Philippines. Spain suffered the worst wildfires in 30 years due to weather conditions scientists said were more likely because of climate change. The planet was at its hottest ever last year. Scientists have confirmed that the primary cause of global warming over time is greenhouse gas emission from fossil fuels. World Meteorological Organization reported earlier this year that the last decade has been the 10 hottest years since records began. The Paris Climate Agreement of 2015 set a global warming threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius as the limit that countries would try to avoid, in order to avoid the worst consequences of climate change. Technically, the world hasn't yet?breached this target. This refers to a global average temperature of 1.5 Celsius for decades. The U.N. stated this year that the 1.5 Celsius target is no longer achievable and encouraged governments to reduce CO2 emissions more quickly to avoid overshooting. C3S records date back to 1940 and are cross-checked against global temperature records dating back to 1850. (Reporting and editing by Michael Perry; Kate Abnett)
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Gold prices drop as markets prepare for Fed's hawkish tone
Gold ?edged down on Tuesday as investors, having mostly priced ?in ?a Federal Reserve rate cut, looked ahead for clues that the U.S. central bank might opt for a gentler-than-expected easing cycle when its two-day policy meeting begins later in the day. As of 0609 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.3% at $4,174.91 an ounce. U.S. gold futures for delivery in December fell 0.4% to $4.202.70 an ounce. Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, said that investors are largely repositioning themselves ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting. During his press conference earlier in the month, Jerome Powell signaled hawkish guidance on rate cuts. Investors in the U.S. Treasury Market are now adjusting their "positions." The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields in the United States held close to a peak reached?on Monday, which was a two-and-a half month high. Analysts expect to see a "hawkish" cut this week, accompanied by forecasts and guidance that indicate a high threshold of further easing next year. The U.S. The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), was in line with expectations. Consumer sentiment also improved in December. The private payrolls for November recorded their sharpest decline in over 2-1/2 years. However, jobless claims for the week ending November 28 fell to a 3-year low. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, the markets now give an 89% chance of a quarter point cut at the Fed’s meeting on December 9-10. Gold is a non-yielding asset that tends to be favoured by lower interest rates. Silver fell by?0.6%, to $57.76 an ounce. The white metal reached a record high of $59.32 per ounce on Friday. Wong stated that silver was a more risky play than gold, due to its low inventories, high industrial demand and the expectation of Fed rate reductions. Palladium fell 0.4%, to $1459.78, while platinum lost 0.2%, to $1638.35. (Reporting and editing by Sumana Aich, Rashmi aich and Sherry J. Phillips in Bengaluru)
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Russell: China's steel exports are up, but its aluminium exports are down.
Exports of China's steel products are surging this year, as the domestic demand – particularly in property development – is slumping. However, those of aluminum have fallen due to increased activity in the manufacturing and energy sector. China produces more steel and aluminum than the rest of the world combined. Beijing has set informal production ceilings for both sectors in order to curb overcapacity. Informally, steel production is limited to no more than 1.005 billion metric tonnes. Given that production for the first ten months of this year was 817.87 millions tons, 2025 production will likely dip below 1 billion metric tons. This would be the first time since 2019. Steel mills are trying to compensate for the soft demand by increasing exports. Customs data released on Monday shows that China's steel exports increased 6.7% in the first eleven months of this year, compared with the same period of 2024. If December exports are on par with the average of the year, then China's steel shipment will be around 117 million tonnes, which would?mark an all-time high, surpassing the 112,39 million tons in 2015. Steel mills are currently able to benefit from exports as domestic prices have been near their lowest levels in five years. On Monday, Shanghai exchange rebar ended at 3,128 Yuan ($442.43) per?ton, after trading mostly sideways, since the low of 3,012 Yuan was reached early June. Chinese steel is competitively priced against other benchmarks. Last week, LME contracts for Turkish rebar ended at $560.50 per ton. China has been able to increase steel exports, despite the fact that several countries have placed tariffs on imports to protect domestic producers. Buying cheaper Chinese steel is a good idea, as much of China's production goes to other Asian nations, particularly those with limited steel production. ALUMINIUM SLUMP China's exports of refined aluminum and its products, which have fallen by 9.2% in the first 11 month of the year, totalled 5.59 million tonnes. China's aluminum production is expected to be very close to the 45-million-ton annual cap. More demand for metal from the manufacturing and energy sectors of the country has also led to less available metal to export. Loss of Chinese aluminum on global markets pushed benchmark London prices up to $2,920 per?ton in December 5th. This was the highest price since May 2022. The contract has increased by 27% from its early April 2025 low price of $2,300. The rising prices of metals have provided some relief to Western based smelters that have been struggling to stay competitive in the past few years. This is especially true for those in Europe and Australia who have had to contend with increasing energy costs. Beijing's annual aluminum output cap of 45 million tons is likely to further tighten global supply in 2026. It is a question of whether China's Steel sector will follow in the footsteps of aluminium. It will depend on the speed of recovery in domestic demand if Beijing limits annual steel production at a maximum 1 billion tons. While construction is a drag on China's steel industry, the mills are likely to continue trying to reduce capacity or export their way to profitability by retiring old furnaces. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of a columnist who writes for.
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Stocks drop as nervous markets await Fed decision, rates outlook
Investors worried about the direction U.S. interest rates could take next year amid fears about a divided Central Bank. Asian stocks dropped while the dollar remained steady on Tuesday. Investor sentiment was cautious after a shaky start to the week, with key central bank meetings. Markets are looking for clarity on the outlook of global interest rates. Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates unchanged as expected on February 2, ruling out any further policy easing. They warned that the next step could be an increase if inflation pressures remain stubborn. The Australian dollar traded just below a three-month high. Bank of Canada, Swiss National Bank, and the Federal Reserve are expected to keep rates unchanged this week. Many Wall Street banks predict that the Fed will not cut interest rates as much in 2026 due to lingering concerns about inflation and expectations for a stronger U.S. economic recovery. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell by 0.65% after a weak session overnight on Wall Street. European futures point to a subdued opening as a cautious air grips the markets. Prashant Nnewnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rate strategist at TD Securities, said that "the low-hanging fruits from risk management reductions are likely over" and that Chair Powell's upcoming press conference is likely to reflect a more conservative approach in the future regarding policy recalibration. The dot plot is likely to show a single cut in 2026. If the dot plot indicates two cuts next year, this would be considered dovish. According to LSEG, traders are pricing in 77 basis point of easing at the end of the next year. Some strategists believe that the Fed's Policy Committee could be deeply divided. The meeting is also being held in the context of increased market interest about who will replace Powell as Fed chair when his current term ends next May. Kevin Hassett, White House Economic Advisor and leading contender for the Fed chair role, said in an exclusive interview that the Fed should continue to reduce interest rates. Xiao Cui is a senior U.S. economics from Pictet Wealth Management. He expects that a solid economy, inflation above target, and a slowing labor market will increase the internal divisions within the FOMC, making 2026 a challenging year for policymakers. We see risks that Fed reductions are delayed until the second half 2026. Asian chip stocks sank after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that the United States would allow Nvidia to export its H200 processors -?its second best artificial intelligence chips - to China, and charge a 25% tax on these sales. China's CSI Semiconductor Industry Index fell 0.5%, while the broader CSI300 Index dropped 0.47%. The dollar was stable on Tuesday. The euro was last trading at $1.1649, while the pound sterling was up 0.11% to $1.3336. The Aussie dollar was up 0.33% at $0.6646. It is hovering near its highest level since September after RBA Governor Michele Bullock warned of the possibility of an increase in interest rates due to inflationary forces. The yen remained unchanged at 155.91 to the dollar, after a sharp decline immediately following a powerful earthquake in Japan. The Japanese authorities lifted the tsunami warnings Tuesday, hours after a powerful 7.5-magnitude quake shook Japan's northeastern region, injuring 30 people at least and forcing 90,000 residents from their homes. Oil prices continued to fall in commodities after a 2% drop in the previous session, as traders kept an eye on the peace talks that were taking place in Ukraine to end Russia's conflict. Brent crude futures fell 0.3% to $62.32 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was down by 0.41% at $58.64. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam in Singapore)
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US military develops small refineries for critical mineral substances
The U.S. Military said it plans to build a fleet small-scale refineries that will produce the critical minerals needed to manufacture bullets, armor, and other types of weaponry. This is a step to create domestic sources of niche materials, which Chinese miners have 'long controlled. Plans, not previously announced, are being developed jointly by the U.S. Army, the Idaho National Laboratory, and the antimony and gold mining company Perpetua Resources. Antimony is the first mineral that the military wants to refine. The Army has said that it will not produce large quantities of minerals for private consumption. However, a small-scale approach could provide a constant stream of building blocks, without having to rely on commercial refineries which are often much larger and primarily focused on bulk commodities, such as copper and iron ore. Washington hopes to refine other minerals, such as?tungsten and rare earths, which the U.S. government considers critical. Mark Mezger is a U.S. Army munitions adviser. He said, "We must find a way of making our own critical minerals that we can control and monitor within our borders." The Army spent $30,000,000 over several years developing the refinery programme for antimony. Westpro Machinery, a private company, designed a refinery which can be transported within four shipping containers. The refinery is able to produce between 7 and 10 metric tons of trisulfide (a type of antimony) annually, which is far less than what a commercial refinery could produce. However, it's enough to supply the Army in peacetime. Mezger stated that if a conflict breaks out, the Army could expand processing by adding more mini-refineries for ore from Perpetua’s Idaho mine. He added that the Army was in discussions with other U.S. Antimony Projects to source additional antimony. Primers, which are the explosive caps at the base of a bullet, are made from antimony trisulfide. The United States hasn't produced this version of antimony since the 1960s. "You can't make primers without antimony trisulfide." Without primers you cannot make bullets. "An army without bullets would be a mere parade," Mezger said. Idaho National Laboratory is testing the facility over the next six-months and if it passes muster will be operating it for Perpetua and the Army. Perpetua is backed both by JPMorgan Chase and the billionaire investor John Paulson. Officials said that refineries for other minerals could be situated on military bases or government properties. In March, was the first to report that the Trump Administration was considering placing metal refining plants on U.S. Military bases. The portable refinery will perform steps that are common in larger facilities, such as crushing rock. The type of mineral produced will determine the chemicals that are used. INL will also be involved in ensuring that the facility is not only a copy of existing refinery standards, but is also cleaner and more efficient. In 2021, the Army learned that China had stopped shipping Trisulfide. This triggered a rapid drawdown of its one-year supply and a rush to find alternative supplies in India. Mezger explained that the refinery plan was borne out of a recognition that a domestic alternative was essential. Jon Cherry, Perpetua CEO, said that the development of the plant should "pave a way for sustainable American mineral independence and resilient." (Reporting and editing by Ernest Scheyder)
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Bezos Earth Fund increases marine conservation by $24.5 million
Head of Nature of the world's largest climate philanthropy, gave $24.5 million for coastal ecosystem protection as part of a plan that aims to create a cross-border marine Biosphere Reserve. The Bezos Earth Fund has awarded four grants to local communities in Costa Rica and Panama. Colombia and Ecuador will also receive a grant. The grants are part of a $1 billion plan to protect 30% of the land and oceans of the planet by 2030. The group of donors aims to contribute $5 billion in the same time period as part of the "Protecting Our Planet Challenge" with 10 other philanthropies. The Bezos?Earth?Fund, and the wider coalition have deployed more than $3.5 billion of the $5 billion total. Re:wild, an organization that helps partners establish and strengthen coastal reserves for turtles, hammerheads sharks and other marine species. Cristian Samper, the Bezos Earth Fund’s director of nature, stated that "it's an extremely important area for species migration." "The only way to protect this area is by doing it transboundary." He said that in two years, the four countries tripled the size?of the protected seas, to more than 600,00 square kilometres (231,660 square miles), across 10 different areas. The goal now is to create a biosphere reserve. "That'll be the first of its kind in the world," said Samper, adding that the Fund is also examining a similar?"reserve" in the Pacific which would be five times as large as the continental United States. The fund agreed to spend 100?million dollars helping the Pacific Region implement the global biodiversity goals and would announce the second set of grant in 2026. This is the kind of work that you should be doing to move the needle toward 30 by 30. (Reporting and editing by William Maclean, Simon Jessop)
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Saudi crude oil supplies to China in January are set to reach a three-month high following price drops
Sources said that Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports to China are set to reach a record high in January, after it lowered its official selling prices for Asia. Saudi Aramco, the state oil company, will send about 49.5 millions barrels or 1.60 million barrels a day to China in January, according to a list of allotments to Chinese refiners. According to records, the allocation volume is up from the two previous months when it was?under 40 millions barrels. It's also the highest since last October. Sources said that PetroChina, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Shenghong Petrochemical were among the companies who planned to increase Saudi crude shipments next month. CNOOC, Hengli Petrochemical and others will lift less this month than the previous month. Saudi Aramco has not yet commented on the allocation of January to China. Last week, the state-owned producer released its official January selling prices. The price of the Arab Light crude oil to Asia was cut by 60 cents per barrel, compared with the average for Oman/Dubai, which is the lowest in five years. Two sources stated that the lower price attracted term buyers to lift more. OSPs were also cheaper than spot benchmarks, which also boosted demand. Late November, Chinese independent refiners received their first shipment of import quotas for 2026.
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Orangutans in danger as Indonesia floods destroy habitat
Amran Siagian (39), a resident of Sipirok in North Sumatra province, met Tapanuli Orangutans frequently on a hill. Siagian who has been working at the Orangutan Center (OIC), as a ranger, to protect this endangered animal for at least five year, recalls that the orangutans loved eating durians and other fruits grown in the surrounding area. Orangutans have disappeared from Sipirok after the landslides. As of Tuesday, 962 people had died from the cyclone-induced flooding and landslides. 291 are still missing. Storms in southern Thailand and Malaysia also claimed the lives of?about 200 other people. "They must have gone further and farther away." I could not hear their voices," Siagian said. Local leaders and green groups have said that?deforestation caused by mining and logging has exacerbated the impact of floods and land slides. Large trees were cut down in Sipirok, which is a village located in South Tapanuli, and was one of the worst hit areas by the disaster. Siagian claimed that a company has been logging the area for more than a year. He said that the deforestation affected orangutans before the floods. Orangutans live by moving from branch to branch between the forest canopy. Siagian stated that if the forest was sparse, they would have a difficult time. OIC founder Panud Hadisiswoyo stated that there were approximately 760 orangutans living in the Tapanuli Region. He said that the biggest threat to forests is due to plantations, and extractive industries. According to World Wildlife Fund, there are 119,000 orangutans in Indonesia and Malaysia. Orangutans may become extinct in this area if the government does not step up. Siagian added that the deforestation was a major factor. (Reporting and writing by Ahmad Luqman Ismail in South Tapanuli, Ananda Teresia, Editing by Stephen Coates.
MORNING BID EUROPE: Markets racked with anxiety as we approach the day of Fed
Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets
Investors are on edge about the U.S. financial policy outlook, ahead of the?expected Federal Reserve rate cut this week. A divided central 'bank and the prospect that a dovish Fed Chair will replace?Jerome Powell have investors worried.
Welcome to the almost-Fed Day! The traders are almost certain that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. Let's face it, most traders are focused on what Powell says and how many rate reductions the dot plot for 2026 will show.
The markets are predicting 77 basis point easing by the end of 2026. This means that two more price cuts will remain after December.
This week, the Fed is expected to adopt a semihawkish tone and warn that the next rate cut bar will be raised. Anything that sounds even vaguely dovish is a surprise, and could cause a lot of volatility.
Bond investors are preparing for a short-term easing cycle by reducing their exposure to Treasuries with long maturities and rotating into intermediate maturities in order to get a better return.
White House economist Kevin Hassett said that the Fed should lower interest rates in an interview. This added yet another layer to a likely complex Fed decision-making day.
Jamie McGeever, Open Interest Markets columnist, writes that the markets aren't so sure.
Stocks are largely trading sideways in the'skittish' mood. European futures suggest a lacklustre start to the year. However, chip stocks may be worth watching.
Donald Trump announced on Monday that the United States would allow Nvidia H200 processors to be exported to China, and charge a 25%?fee? for such sales.
The Australian dollar also fluctuated after the central bank of Australia kept interest rates the same as expected.
After a brief period of weakness, the yen remained steady as soon as news of a powerful quake in Japan began to filter through. The impact of the earthquake has been minimal, as Japanese authorities have lifted tsunami warnings.
The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Tuesday.
Exports and imports of Germany for October
(source: Reuters)