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MORNING BID EUROPE - Baseball, golf and Nobel Prizes

Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.

Today, U.S. president Donald Trump is in Tokyo. The talk revolves around baseball, golf, Nobel Peace Prizes and the odd deal involving rare earths.

This is at least a welcome change from the usual invective of the trade war and it keeps the hope alive for a rapprochement between China and the United States later this week.

The Asian markets have been able to consolidate the majority of Monday's gains, with all three indexes nearing record highs. Data showing that the economy exceeded forecasts for the third quarter was a major boost to the latter.

China's Shanghai Index also broke through 4,000 for first time since 2015. Beijing has signed a free-trade agreement with Southeast Asian bloc ASEAN.

The European and Wall Street Futures are largely flat. This is not surprising, given that the mega-caps have much to live up to this week.

The Street is expecting high expectations, given that 85% of S&P companies have reported so far and surpassed the Street in EPS. Options suggest that share prices could move up or down by 6% depending on the results.

Bonds and the dollar also await with bated breath to see how dovish or not the Federal Reserve will be on Wednesday. Investors are waiting to see if their bets on another cut in December and two next year will come true.

Please, stop reducing the balance sheet of the Fed. Please, no more QT.

The Bank of Japan is betting on no rate increase for Thursday. However, there is the risk that at least two members will vote in favor of a rate rise due to stubborn inflation.

A real hike would trigger a massive sell-off of the dollar/yen. This suggests that the risk-averse BOJ may be laying the foundation for a tightening by December or January.

The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Tuesday.

- ECB bank lending survey

Dallas Fed Services Survey, U.S. Conference Board Consumer confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for October, August house prices

(source: Reuters)