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The price of 2026 diesel is higher at major Asian refineries
According to several trade sources, major Asian refineries have signed term agreements for diesel exports by 2026, at a higher premium than the benchmark Singapore prices this year. This is supported by the firmer prices of November. The spot premiums for refiners’?sales? of 10ppm diesel in December were at their highest level in two years as the?prompt?supplies tightened because refinery outages exceeded expectations and year-end demand by regional importers increased, traders reported. The higher premiums on 2026 supply indicates that traders are still bullish about the prospects for motor and industrial fuel in the coming year. Three sources familiar with this matter claim that the Taiwanese refiner Formosa Petrochemical Corp. (FPCC), sold two cargoes of 750,000 barrels per month at 10ppm sulphur to a Western trading house for a premium of 60-70c a barrel. They added that two more?buyers can load a 750,000-barrel shipment every quarter for a premium of up to 80 cents a barrel. The contract prices for this year were higher by 20-40 cents a barrel. The 'premiums' for diesel and jet-fuel are largely up on an annual basis due to'stronger forecasts of supply-demand next year', said FPCC spokesperson KY Lin. However, he declined comment on the deal. He added, "We expect global supply-demand fundamentals to be better than this year for most oil products such as diesel and jet fuel due to some refinery closures and shutdowns since the second half of this year." Some refineries in Asia have experienced longer than expected outages. Others on the West Coast of the U.S. West Coast refineries have permanently closed due to high cost. SK Energy (a unit of SK Innovation) and GS Caltex, two South Korean oil companies, have been selling?several cargoes of 10ppm sulphur-free diesel per month? to a few Western trading houses as well as regional end users at a premium of 30 cents a barrel?, compared to around 20 cents a barrel this year? SK Energy and GS Caltex didn't immediately respond to our requests for comment. Two sources confirmed that Japan-origin barriques were also being discussed, with premiums of 30-50 cents per barrique. However, further details couldn't be confirmed. Traders said that FPCC?and GS Caltex jet fuel and kerosene were both sold at a premium of 80 cents up to $1 per barrel compared to FOB Singapore prices. Several buyers took advantage of this opportunity to lock in supplies, expecting a stronger heating demand through the first quarter next year. Reporting by Trixie YAP. Joyce Lee contributed additional reporting. Mark Potter (Editor)
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Copper prices rise on the prospect of support for Chinese real estate sector
On Wednesday, copper prices rose, returning to record levels on the back of hopes for more stimulus, particularly in China's battered real estate sector. Benchmark three-month Copper on the London Metal Exchange rose?1.2%?to $11,624 per metric ton at 1005 GMT, after falling by 1.3% Tuesday. It had reached a record high of $11,771 one day earlier. The shares of China's real estate sector soared on Wednesday, amid unsubstantiated market rumours about a government mortgage subsidy package worth 400 billion yuan (56.63 billion dollars). Property is one of the largest consumers of industrial metals, including copper. Dan Smith, managing Director?at Commodity Market Analytics, said: "A lot of?data from China recently was pretty abysmal in construction. It wouldn't?surprise me at all if there will be more stimulus for that part of economy to continue to grow." Analysts said that a stimulus for the Chinese economy as a whole was needed. Data on Wednesday revealed?that domestic demand is still weak and deflationary pressures persist. LME copper prices have risen 32% in this year, on fears of mine disruptions leading to deficits. Also, the flow of metals into the U.S. has tightened the supply of the rest of world. "I think that the risk for now is still on the upside. Smith stated that he had a "hunch" we would reach $12,000 by the end of the calendar year. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract closed the daytime trade down 0.2%, at 91.850 yuan per ton. The U.S. Federal Reserve, expected to cut rates on Wednesday afternoon, may also dampen expectations for further rate cuts. Analysts at Chinese broker Jinrui stated that investors have'scaled back their positions due to the uncertainty of future rate cuts. The expected supply pressure outside of the U.S. keeps prices high and volatile. Other metals saw a 0.3% rise in LME aluminium to $2,863.50 per ton. Lead rose by 0.2% at $1,983, Nickel increased 0.2% at $14,760. Tin gained 1.4% at $40,400, while zinc fell 0.1% to 3,086.50.
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A Chinese rare earth manufacturer receives a streamlined license for magnet exports
Ningbo Jintian Copper, a Chinese rare earth producer, announced on Wednesday that it had obtained streamlined export?licences. After a meeting in late October between Donald Trump, the U.S. counterpart of President Xi Jinping, and Xi's Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, the?new general licences? are intended to allow individual customers more exports with year-long permits. On an investor interactive platform, Ningbo Jintian Copper said that its rare earth magnets are used in electric cars, wind turbines and robots as well as consumer electronics, medical equipment, and consumer electronic products. Last week, it was reported that three Chinese rare-earth magnet manufacturers including JL Mag Rare Earth Ningbo Yunsheng High-Tech and Beijing Zhongke San Huan High-Tech secured the licenses which would allow them to speed up exports to certain customers. Beijing added several rare earth elements and magnets in early April to its export control list, requiring dual-use licenses for export. China's exports of rare-earth magnets plummeted in April and may, forcing automakers to shut down parts of their production. The dual-use license regime will continue to exist. Reporting by Beijing Newsroom. (Editing by Jan Harvey, Mark Potter and Jan Harvey)
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Intel wins reduced fine after losing its challenge to EU antitrust ruling
Intel, the U.S. chipmaker, lost its appeal against a 376 million euro ($438 millions) EU antitrust penalty imposed two years earlier for 'thwarting competitors.' But it gained some comfort as Europe’s second highest court reduced the fine by a third. The European Commission (which is the EU's competition enforcer) handed out the fine in 2023, after the court threw out an earlier penalty of 1.06 billion euro imposed by the tribunal in 2009 for blocking Advanced Micro Devices. The 376 million Euro fine was a result of payments Intel made to HP, Acer and Lenovo between November 2002 and December 2006 to stop or delay competing?products. These payments are often referred to as "naked restrictions" and are frowned upon by regulators. The Luxembourg-based tribunal stated that "the General Court upholds Commission 2023's decision against Intel, but reduces fine by about?140million euros." The judges said that a fine of 237 million euros is more appropriate in light of the severity and duration of the violation at issue. The company cited the limited number of computers that were affected by Intel?s restrictions and the 12-month interval between?some of these anti-competitive activities. On legal issues, the Commission and Intel may appeal to the European Court of Justice (the highest court in Europe), which is Europe's highest. T-1129/23 Intel Corporation V Commission.
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Silver extends rally beyond $60; gold steady ahead of Fed rate-cut decision
Investors awaited comments from Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, on future policy decisions, as gold prices remained unchanged. Silver extended its historic rally over $60 an ounce. As of 0844 GMT, spot gold dropped 0.2% to $4199.92 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery fell 0.2% to $4.228.10 an ounce. Spot silver rose 1.2% to $61.37/oz after hitting an all-time record of $61.61 earlier. Silver broke above the $60 an ounce mark, luring in more short-term traders and trend followers. Carsten Menke, Julius Baer's analyst, said that this also reflects a narrative of "physical tightness" in the silver markets. White metal prices have risen 113% in the past year. This is due to a combination of factors, including a decline in inventories and the United States' designation of it as a "critical" mineral. Today, the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting ends. A rate-cutting decision is expected at 1900 GMT. Powell will then make his remarks at 1930 GMT. The markets assign an 88% chance of a 25 basis-point cut. In the last few weeks, investors' demand for gold measured by holdings in physically-backed products was not as high as silver. Menke said that this is the primary factor holding gold back. Holdings of the largest gold-backed ?exchange-traded-fund (ETF), New York's SPDR Gold Trust, fell 0.1% on Tuesday, while New York's iShares ?Silver Trust, gained 0.53%. Kevin Hassett is the White House's economic advisor and a frontrunner for replacing Powell as Fed Chair. He said on Tuesday that "there was plenty of room" to lower interest rates further. However, rising inflation may change this calculation. Gold is a non-yielding asset that tends to be favoured by lower interest rates. RBC Capital Markets has raised its long-term forecasts for gold prices to an average $4,600 per 1 ounce by 2026, and $5,100 in 2027. They cited geopolitical risk, a softer monetary policies, and persistent deficits. Palladium dropped 0.3%, to 1,501.71, and platinum fell 1.2%, to $1670.70. (Reporting and editing by Alexandra Hudson in Bengaluru, with reporting by Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru)
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Ambassadors of EU countries approve phase-out of Russian gas imports
The ambassadors of EU countries approved the bloc's plan on Wednesday to 'phase out' Russian gas imports in 2027. A spokesperson for Denmark's EU Presidency said that this was the last legal hurdle before the ban can become law. Last week, the EU reached a 'deal' on a new law that will cut ties with Russia, Europe's former largest gas supplier. They had vowed to do so following Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. According to the agreement, the EU must stop Russian imports of liquefied gas by 2026. Pipeline gas will be stopped by 2027. Before it becomes law, the 'Russian gas ban' still needs to be approved by the European Parliament and a meeting of EU ministers. The EU Ministers will formally ratify the ban in early 2019. EU officials expect that both will approve the deal, despite Hungary and Slovakia's opposition. (Reporting and editing by Louise Breusch Rasmussen, with Kate Abnett)
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Kazakhmys Copper announces new controlling shareholder
Kazakhmys, a Kazakh copper producer, announced on Wednesday that it had signed an?framework contract? which would transfer the control of?company? to a new investor. The?signing?of?the document marks the beginning of the transfer of the control. The company stated that all the necessary obligations and measures under the agreement would be completed in the near future 'according to established procedures. This will then be followed by the signing a'share purchase agreement. Vladimir Kim and Eduard?Ogay, the board chairman of Kazakhmys, signed the agreement. Kazakhmys has not said who will take control. Local media reported that Nurlan Artykbayev founded Qazaq Stroy and is its majority owner. Local media reported that the preliminary transaction value was $3.85billion. Kazakhmys refused to identify the new owner when asked by journalists and referred them to its published statement. Qazaq Stroy didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. Kazakhmys is ranked 20th in the world in terms of copper concentrator production. It produces 271,000 tonnes per year. Kazakhmys stated that the change in shareholder will not affect production or contractual obligations.
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Iron ore prices rise as China's weak data boosts demand
Iron ore futures rose on Wednesday, ending multiple sessions of losses. This was after soft factory data in China, the top consumer, raised hopes for a new stimulus to boost economic growth by 2026. After falling by 0.7% on the previous day, the?most-traded contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed its daytime trading 1.85% higher. As of 0748 GMT, the benchmark January iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was up 0.84% at $102.65 per ton. China's factory gate deflation has accelerated in the third year of its existence, and last month it reached a new high. This indicates a weakening domestic demand, which is not expected to improve soon. Official data revealed that the producer price index (PPI), which measures prices for goods and services, fell by?2.2% in November compared to a fall of 2.1% in October. This was worse than expected, as the official data predicted a drop of?2%. Analysts expect Beijing to take some measures to support growth in the first three months of 2026. Iron ore prices rose despite the fact that analysts from China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG), a state-owned company, argued that current trends were not in line with fundamentals. In a Tuesday statement posted on the WeChat page of the state-backed Steel Association, CMRG analysts said that "speculative activity among traders has amplified price fluctuation." Prices are not likely to trend up in the fourth-quarter due to a backdrop of increasing supply and weakening consumer demand." CMRG was 'established in 2022 for the centralisation of iron ore - purchases and to win better terms with miners. Coking coal, another steelmaking ingredient, fell by 1.29%, while adding 0.36%. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have gained ground. Rebar grew by 0.97%. Hot-rolled coils climbed by 0.58%. Wire rod jumped 0.27%. Stainless steel gained 0.24%. ($1 = 7.0617 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson and Harikrishnan Nair).
OPEC+ limits output for now as fears of an oil glut increase
Sources within the group stated that OPEC+ countries chose to only increase their November production modestly due to fears of a global glut. Non-OPEC oil supply is also increasing while fuel demand growth is slowing.
The group announced on Sunday that it would increase its monthly production by 137,000 barrels a day in November. This is a continuation of the increases begun in April.
Three OPEC+ source said that was the smallest option the group had discussed. They cited concerns over an upcoming surplus.
OPEC declined comment. The Saudi Arabian government did not reply to a comment request.
Jorge Leon, a former OPEC employee and Rystad Energy executive, said that "OPEC+ stepped cautiously after seeing how nervous market was becoming."
Brent benchmark oil prices dropped 8% last week to less than $65 per barrel after media reports that OPEC+ would consider higher increases.
Brent is now trading at $60-$70 per barrel since OPEC+ started its production increases in April. This compares to $82 per barrel at the beginning of 2025.
Leon added that the oil market's futures structure for monthly also changed last week. This could indicate possible oversupply and may have influenced OPEC+ decisions.
Brent's immediate price premium over six month futures
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The group claims that its market strategy is driven not by oil price targets, but fundamental factors of supply and demand.
Sources familiar with OPEC+ talks say that Saudi Arabia, the leader of OPEC+, is de facto prioritising regaining share on rival producers.
The OPEC+ group's planned production increases from April to November total more than 2.7 millions barrels of oil per day or 2.5% global demand. However, the group has not been able to reach them in full.
Data and analysts have shown that OPEC+ is on track to reach about 75% of its goal, as the majority of producers are already at capacity.
The extra supply has been absorbed by China's stockpiling and the summer fuel demand.
Many analysts believe that the market will face a surplus in the coming months as the summer driving period and the autumn harvest of the northern hemisphere ends, and as supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers such as the United States and Brazil increases.
Paris-based International Energy Agency forecasts a surplus of twice that amount in 2026 - 3.3 millions bpd.
Calculations show that OPEC's most recent forecasts indicate a 700 000 bpd shortfall for 2026 if it maintains its output at the same level as August.
Since August, OPEC's output quotas have already been raised by 821,000 bpd.
JP Morgan reported that the global oil and liquids inventories - including crude oil stored on water - have increased every week during September. 123 million additional barrels were added in this month.
China accounted for over a third of global liquid inventory growth in the first nine-month period.
JP Morgan stated that the increase in Middle Eastern crude exports and Russian crude imports in September will contribute to the surplus.
Kpler reported that oil exports from Russia and Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, and Oman increased by 1.3m bpd compared to August.
Analysts polled said that it is difficult to predict future disruptions in Russian exports because of sanctions, Ukrainian attacks and China stockpiling. These factors could lead to a tightening of supply and a rise in demand.
(source: Reuters)