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Congo and M23 sign peace framework in Qatar. More steps are needed
On Saturday, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and M23 rebels signed a framework deal for a peace agreement aimed at ending the fighting in eastern Congo which has claimed thousands of lives and forced hundreds of thousands to flee their homes this year. Representatives from both sides signed the agreement at a Doha, Qatar ceremony. The document was one of many signed in the last few months to support efforts by the United States of America and Qatar to end the decades long conflict in Congo, which has threatened to escalate to a full-blown war in the region. Officials from the United States and Qatar described the framework as an important step towards peace, but only one of many to come. Many details still need to be worked out Massad Boulos, the top U.S. ambassador to the region said that the framework included eight protocols and that there was still work to be done on how to implement the six of them. Boulos acknowledged, too, that the implementation of the two first protocols, concerning the exchange and monitoring of prisoners, which were agreed on in the last few months, was slow. After the signing, he said to reporters: "Yes they were a bit slow in their first few weeks." "Yes, there were people who expected to see immediate results, but it is a long process." It's not like a light switch you can turn on and off. M23, the latest in a series of actions supported and backed by Rwanda, captured Goma in eastern Congo in January. It then made gains in North Kivu, South Kivu, and other provinces. Rwanda has denied for years that it helped M23 seize more territory in Congo. CONFLICT CONTINUES TO BREAKOUT IN CONGO AS TALKS GO FORWARD The violence in Congo has continued despite the diplomatic efforts of Washington and Doha. Local officials in the eastern North Kivu Province reported that at least 28 people were killed on Friday by militants affiliated with Islamic State. Qatar has hosted several rounds of direct negotiations between the Congolese government and rebels dating back to April. However, they were mainly focused on preconditions and building confidence. In July, the two sides reached an agreement on a statement of principles which left unresolved many of the key issues that are at the heart of the conflict. They also agreed to monitor a ceasefire in October. Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Al-Khulaifi, Qatar's State Minister for Foreign Affairs, said that the agreement reached on Saturday put the parties back on the road to peace. He said that "peace cannot be enforced through force but can only be built by mutual respect, confidence and sincere commitment."
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Australian Energy Minister pushes for COP31 to be hosted at Brazil Climate Summit
Chris Bowen, Australia's energy minister, said he will travel to Brazil on Saturday for the COP30 summit to press Australia to host the summit next year. This is despite a dispute with Turkey over hosting rights. Since then, both Australia and Turkey have refused to compromise on the issue. This month, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese wrote to Turkish President Tayyip Erdoan in an effort to resolve the longstanding tussle. Bowen told reporters at Sydney Airport that a decision would be taken at COP30. He also asserted "Australia has the overwhelming backing of the world" to host the conference next year. Bowen, in a press release, said that he would be promoting Australia's clean energy sector at the summit to be held in the Amazonian city of Belem. Bowen stated that Australia was keen to host the summit next year with Pacific Island nations and demonstrate how they can work together to combat the "existential danger" of climate changes. He added, "Our nation faces a number of challenges when it comes climate change. But every effort we make will help us avert the worst effects." The Pacific Islands Forum is a regional diplomatic bloc made up of 18 countries that supports Australia's bid. The rising seas are a threat to several Pacific island nations. Australia is aiming to be a "superpower of renewable energy" and has shifted away from coal, gas and nuclear power. It is now seeking investment for critical minerals, green-steel and transition technologies, such as batteries. The Turkish government wants a COP – or Conference of the Parties – that focuses more on financing climate initiatives in developing countries, while showcasing the progress Turkey has made towards its 2053 target of net-zero emission. Over the years, the annual COP has evolved from a diplomatic gathering into a vast trade show where the host countries can showcase their economic prospects.
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Director Raizen says that the company has locked in prices for half its production for 2026/27.
Phillipe Casale, director of investor relations at Raizen and one of the top sugar producers in the world, said on Friday that the company has already locked in prices for half the volume of sugar it expects to make in the 2026/27 harvest. Casale, a Brazilian company, said that the Brazilian firm had so far achieved prices of 114 cents real ($0.2110) per kilogram. He added that the price of sugar for the crop year 2025/26 is set at 111 cents real per pound. According to Raizen, weather problems will cause his sugarcane crushing to be lower than the 72-75 million tons he had forecasted for 2025/26. * The director of the company said that the company expects to see potential productivity gains in next crop year. This is due to replanting areas damaged by wildfires and better weather conditions. * The executives also stated that the firm's divestment program is not yet complete, and further developments will be expected to reduce the net debt. * Raizen reported a net loss in the second quarter for the 2025/26 harvest of 2.3 billion reals ($425.6 millions). ($1 = 5.4039 Reais) (Reporting and Writing by Roberto Samora, Editing and Proofreading by Natalia Siniawski).
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Australian Energy Minister pushes for COP31 to be hosted at Brazil Climate Summit
Chris Bowen, Australia's energy minister, said he will travel to Brazil on Saturday for the COP30 summit to press Australia to host the summit next year. This is despite a dispute with Turkey over hosting rights. Both Australia and Turkey bid in 2022 for the United Nations Climate Conference and have refused to give up their positions ever since. This month, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese wrote to Turkish president Tayyip Erdoan in an effort to resolve the longstanding dispute. Bowen stated in a press release that he will advocate strongly for Australia at the summit to be held in the Amazonian city of Belem and would highlight the clean energy industry. Bowen stated that Australia wished to host the summit of Pacific Island Nations next year and demonstrate how they can fight together against the "existential danger" of climate changes. He added, "Our nation faces a number of challenges when it comes climate change. But every effort we make will help us avert the worst effects." The Pacific Islands Forum is a regional diplomatic bloc made up of 18 countries that supports Australia's bid. The rising seas are a threat to several Pacific island nations. Australia is aiming to be a "superpower of renewable energy" and has shifted away from coal, gas and nuclear power. It is now seeking investment for critical minerals, green-steel and transition technologies, such as batteries. The Turkish government wants a COP – or Conference of the Parties – that focuses more on financing climate initiatives in developing countries, while showcasing the progress Turkey has made towards its 2053 target of net-zero emission. Over the years, the annual COP has evolved from diplomatic gatherings to vast trade shows, where host countries are able to promote their economic prospects.
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S&P Upgrades South Africa For First Time In Nearly 20 Years As Reforms Gain Ground
S&P Global upgraded South Africa's long-term foreign currency sovereign rating from "BB-" to "BB", citing improved growth prospects, an improved fiscal outlook, and reduced contingent liability following better performance by state-owned power utility Eskom. The National Treasury worked to stop the rising debt and restore credibility fiscally to put the nation back on a path of growth. Recent mid-term budget reviews showed that debt to GDP stabilized at 77.9% in this financial year, and that the budget deficit would shrink to 4.7% in 2025/26 compared to 4.8% in the may budget. As the reform agenda of the country gains momentum, state-owned entities engaged in power and freight logistics have also improved. S&P stated in a press release that it expects South Africa’s GDP to grow at a rate of 1.1% by 2025, after a subdued growth of 0.5% in 2024. It also expects the growth to be 1.5% on average through 2026-2028 due to electricity and other sectors supporting growth. Fiscal revenue exceeded budget targets in the first quarter of fiscal 2025. The agency expects to see successive years with primary surpluses, as well as continued fiscal consolidation until 2028. South Africa's foreign currency rating is now two notchs below investment grade. In 2017, the African economy with the highest industrialisation was downgraded for the first time to junk status following the firing by the then president Jacob Zuma of the well-respected Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan and the subsequent policy instability. S&P has rated the outlook for the country as "positive".
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S&P upgrades Nigeria's outlook as reforms begin to take root
S&P Global Ratings changed its outlook for Nigeria from "stable" to "positive" on Friday. They backed the ongoing reforms in the economy and affirmed that the country was rated "B-/B". S&P stated in a press release that "the monetary, fiscal, and economic reforms being implemented" by the Nigerian authorities would yield positive results over the medium-term. Moody's upgraded Nigeria's credit rating in May by one notch, from "Caa1" to "B3", citing significant improvements in the external and fiscal position of the country. Fitch, on its part, maintained a "B" rating with a "stable outlook" last month. Bola Tinubu, Nigeria's President, launched the boldest reforms since decades in 2023. He scrapped the expensive petrol subsidy, and removed currency trading restrictions, to boost growth and attract foreign investments. Analysts say that if these reforms are sustained, they could support economic growth on a long-term basis, although implementation hurdles as well as volatility in the global oil prices still pose risks. Nigeria has turned towards debt markets to bridge its fiscal gap. Last week, Nigeria raised $2.35bn through an Eurobond issue to help finance the budget deficit for 2025, while still borrowing domestically. (Reporting and editing by AnushkaChourasia, ChijiokeOhuocha.
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Sources say that Barrick Mining is considering splitting into two separate entities.
Barrick is considering splitting into Africa and North America focused entities Discussion on the sale of African assets, including Reko Diq Mine Barrick's performance in the record gold rally is undervalued by investors. By Divya Rajagopal Four sources familiar with Barrick Mining's thinking said that the board has discussed the possibility of splitting Barrick Mining into two separate companies, one focusing on North America, and the other focusing on Africa and Asia. Sources say that a split could include the sale of Barrick Africa's assets, as well as the Reko diq mine in Pakistan once financing is secured. Sources said that Barrick wants to settle a dispute in Mali with the African nation’s military administration prior to selling the asset. Barrick's spokesperson did not respond immediately to comments. Interim CEO Mark Hill responded on Monday to a question about a possible division by saying that the company doesn't comment on speculation. Sources said that talks are still ongoing and nothing is finalized. If the plans are implemented, they would reverse Barrick's merger in 2019 with Randgold and eliminate assets acquired by former CEO Mark Bristow. One source said that the company's focus in North America would help to ensure Barrick is not undervalued if a takeover bid were made. This includes Fourmile, an undeveloped major gold mine in Nevada. The Fourmile mine is not expected to begin production until 2029. Hill announced earlier this week the company's shift to North America. Analysts at Jefferies, among others, upgraded its ratings on its shares. Following the report, Barrick's shares rose on the Toronto Stock Exchange. They closed up 3%. Investors say Barrick's stock is undervalued, and they have asked the company how it can take advantage of gold prices that are experiencing a historic rise. Barrick's shares are up 130% in this year but its returns over the past five years have been less than those of its peers. Agnico Eagle, for example, has gained 142%. Investors proposed to divide the company into two divisions, with one with more stable assets, such as Nevada, Fourmile and Reko Diq. The other would have riskier assets, like those in Africa, Papua New Guinea and Reko Diq. Investors say that Barrick, as one of few gold mining companies to have assets on multiple continents and in volatile political regions, is at risk. Barrick's most profitable mine in Mali was taken over by another company earlier this year. This led to a $1 Billion write-off. Three metric tons (three metric tons) of gold were seized and a temporary administrator was appointed to run the mine after a dispute over the new mining tax code in the country. The Malian government has still imprisoned four Barrick employees. One Barrick investor said, "There was a perception that Nevada had a great deal of value." The investor, who asked not to be named because they weren't authorized to speak with the media, added that if the Nevada mine was a publicly-listed company, it would be among the largest gold mining companies in the world. Investor said that the company had resisted splitting up in the past, because its other mines would be worthless without Nevada. Barrick operates the Nevada gold mine with Newmont Corp. The company also has mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Papua New Guinea. It also operates gold mines in Tanzania, Dominican Republic and Tanzania. (Divyarajagopal reported from Toronto; Veronica Brown, Lisa Shumaker, and Edmund Klamann edited the story)
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Gold falls 3% after Fed remarks that are hawkish spark a market sell-off
Gold prices fell 3% on the Friday, as a result of a wider market sell-off sparked off by hawkish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials. This dimmed hopes for an interest rate reduction in December. As of 02:33 pm, spot gold dropped 1.9%, to $4,092.72 an ounce. ET (1933 GMT) after falling more than 3% earlier in session. But bullion has gained 2.3% this week. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 2.4% lower at $4,094.20. David Meger is the director of metals at High Ridge Futures. He said that the idea that there will be a lower likelihood of a Fed cut in December has taken some of the wind from the silver and gold markets. The equity markets fell after the global sell-off caused by Fed hawkish signals. The Fed and traders are now in the dark ahead of the next policy meeting due to the longest U.S. shutdown. Investors were hoping that fresh data would indicate a slowing of the economy, giving the Fed the room to reduce rates in December. This would boost the appeal for non-yielding metals like gold. These expectations dwindled as more Fed policymakers took a cautious approach to additional monetary ease. The FedWatch tool of CME Group showed that market expectations for a rate cut of 25 basis points next month dropped to almost 46% from 50% earlier in the week. Gold that does not yield tends to do well in periods of economic instability and low interest rates. When margin calls or liquidations occur, traders will close all positions to release margin. In this environment of risk-off, even gold prices are down. This is partly explained by Fawad Rasaqzada's note, a market analyst for City Index and FOREX.com. The demand for physical gold in major Asian markets has been subdued over the past week. Silver spot fell 2.8%, to $50.84 an ounce, but is still on course for a 5.2% weekly gain. Palladium fell 2.8%, to $1,387.25, while platinum dropped 2.1%, to $1,547.30. Both metals have been on the rise for this week. (Reporting from Noel John in Bengalur; Additional reporting by Sarah Qureshi, Editing by Leroy Leo & Diane Craft).
Take Five: Low Visibility Ahead
Even though the U.S. Government is shut down, this has not stopped stocks from reaching new highs. They are confident that rate cuts that favor bulls will continue to keep momentum. One problem is that it's difficult to see what's happening with the economy. Here is your week ahead from Alden Bentley, Rocky Swift and Amanda Cooper, in London, and Alun, Dhara and Amanda Ranasinghe in New York.
1/ DOLLAR BEAR SHARPENS THEIR CLAWS
The dollar is in a good position to start the final quarter of 2025. After falling in the first two quarterly periods, due to criticism of U.S. exceptionalism, the dollar ended Q3 with an 1% increase against major competitors. The greenback is still down 10% this year, but its stabilisation has brought some calm to the nearly $10 trillion a day FX markets. The immediate threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve, a source of potential dollar stress, has abated. The weak labour market adds to Fed rate cut bets. Dollar bears are unlikely to hibernate long, especially if the U.S. shutdown continues. Experts in FX say that the yen is particularly attractive, while the euro may still reach $1.20, which it was so close to reaching last month.
2/ WHO NEEDS DATA? The U.S. data schedule for next week is light. This means that further market disruptions from the shutdown of the federal government should be minimal. Also, the U.S. Treasury Department will conduct a normal note and bond auction.
The market is likely to make due without the U.S. International Trade Report on Tuesday and Friday's preliminary University of Michigan October sentiment index.
Treasury will sell $58 billion in notes for three years on Tuesday, $39 Billion in 10-year notes on Wednesday, and $22 Billion in 30-year bonds Thursday. Bond market cannot yet calculate the fiscal impact of a furlough of federal employees indefinitely. Demand could be strong as long as the benchmark yield on 10-year bonds is above 4%.
The earnings parade for Wall Street's largest banks will begin the following week with the announcement of the third-quarter results by Delta Airlines, Levi Strauss and other companies.
3/ A SHOT IN THE ARROW Global pharmaceutical stocks that were in trouble have received a boost thanks to a deal struck between Pfizer, the U.S. and Medicaid in which the price of prescription drugs will be lowered in exchange for tariff reductions. U.S. president Donald Trump took aim at the industry over high U.S. drug prices, which sent shares of drugmakers to multi-decades lows. Investors now believe that the agreement, which is more benign, will lead to more deals.
The U.S. Healthcare stocks have gained 5.6% in the past week, their largest weekly gain since over three years. European healthcare stocks are up 7.6% and on track to their best week ever.
It's now time to wait and see if the deals come to fruition, and if they justify this optimism. The U.S. also imposed tariffs on imported kitchen cabinets, furniture and timber. Trump has said that he will impose a 100 percent tariff on all films made overseas which are sent to the U.S.
The oil industry is struggling to cope with the hefty global supply, which only seems to increase. Demand also does not seem to be able to keep up. According to the International Energy Agency, there may be a surplus of 3 million barrels a day by 2026 compared to an excess of 600,000. The OPEC+ Group, which includes OPEC, other exporters, including Russia, met at the weekend. It is expected that the group will accelerate its pace of unwinding production curbs imposed by the pandemic.
Around $65 per barrel, the price of crude oil is about half that it was in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. Geopolitics will continue to be the wildcard for producers, consumers and forecasters alike.
5/ DIRECTION UNDER DOWN
It is almost certain that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rates will be cut next week. How much will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates?
In August, the RBNZ cut interest rates to a low of just 3%. This was the lowest rate in three years. Last month, data showed that New Zealand's second-quarter economy shrank by 0.9% due to uncertainty over tariffs and a weakening housing market. Money markets are fully pricing in a quarter point cut to 2.5% at the RBNZ meeting on October 8. However, the likelihood of a half-point drop has risen to 44.5% compared to about 25% one week ago. The RBNZ's policy divergence from the Reserve Bank of Australia which held rates at the same level in September could cause further weakness for the kiwi. It is already down three years against the Antipodean counterpart.
(source: Reuters)