Latest News
-
Japan will release part of its oil reserves before IEA decision, says PM
Sanae Takaichi, Japan's Prime Minister, said that Japan will release 15 days of private sector oil reserves as well as one month of state oil reserves. This is in preparation for the International Energy Agency's action. She said that to avoid a disruption in gasoline and other petroleum products supplies, Japan would tap its reserves with the G7 and IEA. However, they will start releasing them 'from 16 March. Takaichi, in a broadcast, said that Japan would act before waiting for formal IEA?approval?of a coordinated release of international reserves to ease the global energy'market supply and?demand. It will release reserves as soon as?the 16th of this month. Around 95% of Japan's oil is sourced from the Middle East. The government and industry released data on Wednesday showing that the retail price of gasoline in Japan?rose? to its highest level since December, and refineries reduced their production last week. This was the first 'week?of the U.S./Israeli war against Iran. We will deliver as soon as possible '15 days' of private sector reserves and one month's worth of national reserves to domestic refiners. Takaichi stated that we will also quickly use joint reserves with oil producing nations. Japan has a total of 254 days worth of emergency oil reserves, which includes national stocks (146 days), private sector reserves (101 days), and joint stockpiles held with other producing countries (7days). (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens, Kantaro Kommiya, Katya Glubkova)
-
Meloni, an Italian critic, says that the US war against Iran is part of a dangerous trend
Giorgia meloni, the Italian Prime Minister, delivered her strongest criticism to date of the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran on Wednesday. She described it as a dangerous trend of "interventions outside the scope of international laws". Her comments to the parliament followed repeated accusations by the opposition that her government's right-wing had been "too soft" toward its allies. Spain is the only notable exception. Most European nations have not criticised the U.S. or Israeli attacks directly, instead calling for restraint. Meloni, who is close to U.S. president Donald Trump, also stated that Iran should not be allowed develop nuclear weapons as this would end the non-proliferation regime with "dramatic consequences for global security", exposing?Italy & Europe to a potential nuclear threat by Tehran. As the Middle East war entered its 12th day the U.S., Israel and Iran traded airstrikes with Iran. The conflict has stopped the flow of a fifth of the world's gas and oil supplies. Meloni, who addressed the parliament about the crisis, drew parallels with the conflict in the Middle East and Russia's invasion of Ukraine 2022, which, she said, triggered a wider global destabilisation. She told the Senate that "it is within this context of structural crisis in the international system where threats are increasing and 'unilateral interventions' outside the scope of international laws are multiplying" that we should also place the American-Israeli intervention against the Iranian regime. Meloni stated that Rome is providing air-defense assets to Gulf nations hit by attacks from Tehran. "This is because they are strategic allies of Italy and friendly nations, but there are also tens of thousand of Italians in that region who we need to protect. Not to mention that there are around 2,000 Italian troops stationed there." (Reporting and editing by Angelo Amante, Giuseppe Fonte)
-
Aluminium rallies bring Middle East turmoil to the forefront
After a brief selloff caused by comments made by U.S. President Donald Trump about the Iran war, the focus shifted to 'pricing global supply losses due to the Middle East conflict. At 1018 GMT, benchmark aluminium at the London Metal Exchange had risen 1% to $3,439 per metric tonne. It reached $3,544 per ton earlier this week, its highest level since April 2022. Around seven?million tons of aluminum smelting is located in the Middle East, which represents 9% of global capacity. Trump predicted on Monday that the conflict would be over well before the four-week timeline he had set out. The war has frozen global supplies of aluminum used for transport, construction, and packaging. Last week, Aluminum Bahrain, or 'Alba', which operates one of the largest smelters in the world, declared force majeure, warning customers of delays. Meanwhile, Qatari smelter Qatalum began to shut down. Aluminium stocks in LME approved warehouses are a source of concern about supply. . On Tuesday, the number of cancelled warrants and metals destined for delivery was 177,325, which is 40%, up from 9% the previous day, before the Middle East turmoil began. Concerns about tight?aluminum?supplies has created a premium for the cash contract?over the three month?forward?on the LME. The soaring dollar and oil prices are causing concern about the global economy. The dollar's value is inflated by a rising U.S. currency, making metals priced in dollars more expensive to holders of other currencies. This could reduce demand. The inflation data due on Wednesday could provide clues about U.S.?monetary policy, and the dollar?s prospects. Copper fell 1.1% to $12,997 per ton. Zinc was down 0.6% at $3,326, while lead dropped 0.2% to 1,940. Tin declined 1.3% to $48,800, and nickel was down 0.4% at $17,425.
-
Russian oil prices used to tax state revenues exceed budget targets
Calculations showed that the price of Russian crude oil, used to tax the country, has exceeded the budget target?for the first time since Jan 2025?because?of?the rise in global prices due to the Iran War. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, in 2022, Russia has increased its military spending, increasing its deficit. In January-February, it was 3.45 trillion Russian roubles (43.70 billion dollars), or 1.5%. The Iran War, which involved U.S., Israeli and Iranian strikes on Iran, and Iranian strikes against Israel and U.S. military bases, as well as Gulf states has fueled a significant increase in demand for Russian gas and oil,?boosting the exports that had been affected by sanctions related to the war in Ukraine. To highlight the boost in Russian revenue, traders said on Friday that Russian flagship Urals delivered to Indian ports for the?first time sold?at a higher price than Brent crude, which is the international benchmark. Based on industry data, calculations show that the Russian oil used to calculate taxation on Monday reached 6,105 Russian roubles a barrel, an 82% increase from the 27th of February, just a day prior to the United States' and Israel's military campaign against Iran. This is more than the assumed price of $5,440 per barrel (or $59 per barrel) at a rouble exchange rate of $92, per U.S. dollars, in the federal budget for 2026. The Russian oil trade above budget targets may be short-lived due to a drop in the price of oil globally and the strong rouble. The price of Russian oil on Wednesday was around $62 per barrel, after reports of possible oil stockpile releases to reduce the oil deficit due to a blockage of Strait of Hormuz. This is an important route used for oil flow globally. According to data from the Finance Ministry, the state's?oil-and-gas revenues in February fell by 44% to 432.3 billion Russian roubles compared to the same month last year. This was due to lower oil prices and the stronger rouble.
-
Minister says oil producers should invest in Nigeria in order to diversify their supply during times of crisis.
Yusuf Tuggar, the Foreign Minister, told?that the Middle -East conflict shows that Gulf oil and gas companies should view Nigeria as a 'partner, not a rival' to help diversify their supply in times of crisis. The remarks coincide with the war in Iran, which has disrupted shipments through Strait of Hormuz. This corridor accounts for about a quarter of global supplies, forcing exporters and price spikes. Tuggar stated that Nigeria's untapped oil and gas reserves provide Gulf States with an alternative source at a moment when global flows of crude are vulnerable. The demand for hydrocarbons will?remain high for many years to come, he added. He said, "It is in line with our advocacy - that other countries who might consider us competitors?should partner with and invest with us so they can increase their market share by working with us." NIGERIA'S TOTAL OUTPUT HAS BEEN RAISED TO ABOUT 1.7 MILLION BPDS Nigeria's long-hampered economy has been impacted by theft, pipeline vandalism and underinvestment. The total production is now 1.7 million barrels a day, up from 1.4 million in 2023, when Bola Tinubu assumed office. Tuggar said that the country could increase its output further with more capital for pipelines and fields. Tuggar says the opposite may also be true. Some analysts believe that U.S., Israeli and Iranian strikes against Iran and Tehran's attacks against Gulf states could cause the region to delay African bets. It could cause them to want to work with oil-rich countries like Nigeria to diversify the market for both countries' benefit, or it could cause them to hold back. Nigeria and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) signed the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement in January. Abuja claims that the agreement will unlock trade and investments. Qatari investors also have plans to invest in gas in Nigeria, but timelines are unclear. Analysts Flag Long Approval Cycles, Execution Risks Analysts warn that headline investment promises often face long approval cycles and execution risk in Nigeria. Tuggar stated that Nigeria felt the impact of higher oil prices because it imports large quantities of refined products. This has led to a rise in transport and food costs, particularly during Ramadan when muslims fast. He said Nigeria would be better able to handle longer-term shocks, as the domestic refining industry expands. Dangote, a privately-owned refinery, says that it operates at a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day. This is enough to meet the domestic demand. Tuggar said that oil will "remain relevant for many years." At the moment, the world consumes between 105 and 106 million barrels of oil per day. I don't think that will change anytime soon. We need to work together in order to have enough hydrocarbons. (Reporting and editing by Clarence Fernandez; David Lewis is the reporter)
-
UK gilts suffer new decline as investors focus on oil reserves
The price of British government bonds?fell dramatically in early trade on Tuesday, as the markets questioned if the plans for a record releasing?of oil reserve could offset any potential supply shocks resulting from the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. As of 0906 GMT the short-dated gilt yields were up around 12 basis points, completely erasing Tuesday's large drops. Investors have also reduced their bets for a Bank of England rate cut in this year. The probability is now?roughly 20 percent, down from 50 percent a day ago. The British public is more vulnerable to a shock in energy prices than many other European countries, due to the 'weakness of its finances and its heavy dependence on gas. The yield on two-year bonds is 46 basis points higher than the equivalent French, German, and U.S. debts. Investors have been watching developments in the Strait of Hormuz. This is a major artery that accounts for about 20% of global oil and natural gas supplies. It has fallen 'rapidly' since the Iran conflict started on February 28. Emma Wall, chief investment strategist of Hargreaves Lansdown, said that the Strait of Hormuz is a major factor in determining long-term impact on equity markets, bond markets, inflation, and economic growth. The Treasury Committee of Parliament will be asking questions to the Finance Minister Rachel Reeves at 945 GMT. Andy Bruce is reporting; Suban Abdulla is editing.
-
Sources: Rio Tinto increases Q2 Japan Aluminium Premium Offer
Rio Tinto increased its offer of a?aluminum premium to?Japanese customers to $350 per ton for April-June primary shipments. This is up 79% compared to the current quarter. The revised offer, which is 40% more than Rio's prior proposal of $250, would, if accepted by the client, be the highest premium since the April-June 2015 quarter, when it reached $380 per ton. Japan is the largest?Asian metal importer and the premiums it agrees to pay each quarter for primary metal shipments over the London Metal Exchange cash price are the benchmarks for the region. Global?producers in late February offered Japanese buyers premiums ranging from $220 to $250 per ton of metal for the April-June period, up 13%-28% on the current quarter. They pulled the offer or let it expire as they assessed the risks of the Middle East conflict on cargoes that transit the Strait of Hormuz. One source involved directly in the quarterly talks stated that the reason for the higher offer was the stronger European and U.S. Premiums, as well as the rising freight and insurance cost. Due to the sensitive nature of the issue, the sources refused to give their names. Rio Tinto refused to comment. The Middle East war, which is responsible for 9% of the global aluminum?supply has shook the light metal market, effectively freezing shipments through the Strait. The Qatari smelter Qatalum has begun shutting down its production, and Aluminium -Bahrain which operates one of the largest smelters in the world, declared force majeure. In 2025, Japan will import about 20% of its primary aluminium ingots. Since the end of February, premiums for aluminium have increased dramatically in South Korea. Japan's quarterly price negotiations began last March and are expected continue until late March. (Reporting from Yuka Obayashi, in Tokyo; Additional reporting from Melanie Burton in Melbourne. Editing by Christian Schmollinger, Saad Sayeed and Saad Schmollinger)
-
Stocks fall as Middle East conflict and volatile oil prices weigh on trading
Investors were worried about inflationary pressures, and the risks of economic growth. Investors were reminded about the vulnerability of 'private credit' after Financial Times reported, citing a source familiar with the issue, that JPMorgan Chase JPM.N marked down the?value? of some loans held in private-credit groups, and tightened its lending policies to the sector. The price of oil was volatile again, but the price movements were relatively mild compared with Monday's record-breaking price swings. The Wall Street Journal reported that the International Energy Agency had proposed the largest release in history of reserves to bring down crude oil prices. Energy ministers from G7 countries said they supported using stockpiles as a way to address the situation. Brent crude futures rose around 2% to $89.47 per barrel after trading as low as $86.24 over night. The MSCI All-World Index eased slightly on the day, as losses in European stocks mounted. This left the STOXX 600 at a loss of 0.7%. It also shrugged off gains in Asia where the Nikkei gained 1.7% and South Korea’s Kospi gained 1.75%. U.S. Stock futures were almost flat on the day. The markets will continue to be influenced by the volatile news flow surrounding Iran and the outlook of oil flows until we move on to the next big event. The narrative is now cautiously optimistic, despite the fact that there are few signs of an imminent resolution to the conflict," said Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank. Investors are on edge, as the Middle East conflict could freeze global energy trading and cause a price spike. This is a threat that world leaders are scrambling to deal with. It is important to know when the Strait of Hormuz will be open again for traffic. This critical chokepoint for oil supplies worldwide, which Iran controls, is an immediate concern. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, said that the central bank will do all it can to control inflation to prevent a repeat in 2022 of the energy price shock. Several ECB officials are urging a wait and see approach before taking any action. SAFE-HAVEN DOLLAR As the war enters its second week, the dollar remains the preferred safe-haven asset for investors. Since the beginning of the conflict, the dollar has gained over 1% compared to a basket other major currencies. This compares with the Swiss Franc, which fell by 1%, and gold, which lost 1.5%. Frank Benzimra is the head of Asia equity and multi-asset strategy at?Societe Generale. "Even gold and Treasuries didn't play this huge role of safe-haven. Treasuries are a good choice because they're inflation-proof, while gold is a great option if you want to offset losses on the stock market. The euro and pound were almost unchanged, at $1.1615 each, and $1.3432 respectively. The yen fell, which led to the dollar rising 0.15%. The rise in bond yields that began the week, due to the possibility of a sustained increase in energy prices, has increased concerns over other areas of the market, which many believe are at risk of overheating. These include private credit, and in particular the huge sums associated with the 'rollout of artificial intelligent. Investors have been withdrawing money from private credit funds, such as BlackRock's HPS Corporate Lending Fund, due to concerns over deteriorating credit. The FT reported that PMorgan is concentrating on lending to the software companies they consider most vulnerable to disruption. U.S. Treasuries dropped again on Wednesday. The yield on the benchmark 10 year note increased 3 basis points, to 4.165%. This was ahead of the February monthly inflation report later that day. (Additional reporting from Rae Wee, Singapore; Editing done by Shri Navaratnam & Pooja Deai)
Take Five: Low Visibility Ahead
Even though the U.S. Government is shut down, this has not stopped stocks from reaching new highs. They are confident that rate cuts that favor bulls will continue to keep momentum. One problem is that it's difficult to see what's happening with the economy. Here is your week ahead from Alden Bentley, Rocky Swift and Amanda Cooper, in London, and Alun, Dhara and Amanda Ranasinghe in New York.
1/ DOLLAR BEAR SHARPENS THEIR CLAWS
The dollar is in a good position to start the final quarter of 2025. After falling in the first two quarterly periods, due to criticism of U.S. exceptionalism, the dollar ended Q3 with an 1% increase against major competitors. The greenback is still down 10% this year, but its stabilisation has brought some calm to the nearly $10 trillion a day FX markets. The immediate threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve, a source of potential dollar stress, has abated. The weak labour market adds to Fed rate cut bets. Dollar bears are unlikely to hibernate long, especially if the U.S. shutdown continues. Experts in FX say that the yen is particularly attractive, while the euro may still reach $1.20, which it was so close to reaching last month.
2/ WHO NEEDS DATA? The U.S. data schedule for next week is light. This means that further market disruptions from the shutdown of the federal government should be minimal. Also, the U.S. Treasury Department will conduct a normal note and bond auction.
The market is likely to make due without the U.S. International Trade Report on Tuesday and Friday's preliminary University of Michigan October sentiment index.
Treasury will sell $58 billion in notes for three years on Tuesday, $39 Billion in 10-year notes on Wednesday, and $22 Billion in 30-year bonds Thursday. Bond market cannot yet calculate the fiscal impact of a furlough of federal employees indefinitely. Demand could be strong as long as the benchmark yield on 10-year bonds is above 4%.
The earnings parade for Wall Street's largest banks will begin the following week with the announcement of the third-quarter results by Delta Airlines, Levi Strauss and other companies.
3/ A SHOT IN THE ARROW Global pharmaceutical stocks that were in trouble have received a boost thanks to a deal struck between Pfizer, the U.S. and Medicaid in which the price of prescription drugs will be lowered in exchange for tariff reductions. U.S. president Donald Trump took aim at the industry over high U.S. drug prices, which sent shares of drugmakers to multi-decades lows. Investors now believe that the agreement, which is more benign, will lead to more deals.
The U.S. Healthcare stocks have gained 5.6% in the past week, their largest weekly gain since over three years. European healthcare stocks are up 7.6% and on track to their best week ever.
It's now time to wait and see if the deals come to fruition, and if they justify this optimism. The U.S. also imposed tariffs on imported kitchen cabinets, furniture and timber. Trump has said that he will impose a 100 percent tariff on all films made overseas which are sent to the U.S.
The oil industry is struggling to cope with the hefty global supply, which only seems to increase. Demand also does not seem to be able to keep up. According to the International Energy Agency, there may be a surplus of 3 million barrels a day by 2026 compared to an excess of 600,000. The OPEC+ Group, which includes OPEC, other exporters, including Russia, met at the weekend. It is expected that the group will accelerate its pace of unwinding production curbs imposed by the pandemic.
Around $65 per barrel, the price of crude oil is about half that it was in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. Geopolitics will continue to be the wildcard for producers, consumers and forecasters alike.
5/ DIRECTION UNDER DOWN
It is almost certain that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rates will be cut next week. How much will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates?
In August, the RBNZ cut interest rates to a low of just 3%. This was the lowest rate in three years. Last month, data showed that New Zealand's second-quarter economy shrank by 0.9% due to uncertainty over tariffs and a weakening housing market. Money markets are fully pricing in a quarter point cut to 2.5% at the RBNZ meeting on October 8. However, the likelihood of a half-point drop has risen to 44.5% compared to about 25% one week ago. The RBNZ's policy divergence from the Reserve Bank of Australia which held rates at the same level in September could cause further weakness for the kiwi. It is already down three years against the Antipodean counterpart.
(source: Reuters)