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Andy Home: Tin prices rise as Indonesia cracksdown on illegal miners
This time, the tin supply chain is in trouble again. The government of Indonesia has launched a massive crackdown on illegal mining. The London Metal Exchange's (LME) 3-month tin price has risen to more than $37,500 per ton. This is the highest since April, when supply was threatened by the Bisie Mine in Democratic Republic of Congo. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto announced the latest price hike, saying that the government plans to close 1,000 illegal mining operations in the tin rich islands of Bangka & Belitung. It is impossible to estimate how much tin these operations produce, but there could be a positive offset if the closure of such operations leads to a higher level of production in the official sector. The price of tin is rising again because it is another drop in the cauldron that is the supply crisis. LONG CAMPAIGN Since the deregulation of the tin industry at the turn of the century, the Indonesian authorities are struggling to regain their control. Many of the tin mined in this country is produced by small-scale and artisanal miners. It's difficult to know who has a licence. The boundaries have blurred so much that PT Timah - the top producer in the country - has been accused of facilitating black market trade. Some illegal "mines", however, are nothing more than rafts that are sent out to dredge tin at night in waters licensed by PT Timah or other operators. The tin ore is then smuggled from the country in small boats. One such boat was seized by the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency this week, which contained 530 gunny sacks weighing 26 tons. Prabowo stated that the latest cracking of the regulatory whip began at the beginning of last month, and it has already led to multiple closures. SHADOW SHADOW PRODUCTION How much tin is produced in Indonesia's shadow industry? As such material is by definition not detected by the country's Customs Service, it exists as a statistical blackhole. Indonesia's official export statistics capture flows of refined Tin, which is the only metal form that is supposed be shipped overseas. Both Chinese and Malaysian customs departments record monthly imports from Indonesia of "ore and concentrates". According to World Bureau of Metal Statistics, Chinese imports totaled 1,192 tons during the first eight month of the year. Malaysia imported 642 tons of metal in the same period. This is just the tip of the Iceberg. The Indonesian Tin Exporters Association's (ITEA) chairman told local media up to 12,000 tonnes of tin is illegally exported every year. Prabowo said that the shadow sector could represent up to 80% of the production in the Bangka Belitung area. Estimates will always differ but there is general agreement that the problem became much worse over the past year. The illegal production boom is reducing the capacity of the official sector. PT Timah attributed a drop of 32% in ore production year-on-year in the first half 2025 to the competition with the shadow industry. The ITEA expects a modest rebound to 53,000 tonnes this year. Last year, Indonesian exports fell to a record low of 46,000 metric tons. In theory, the closure of illegal activities should help compensate the official sector in terms of production. However, it is unclear how much compensation and for what period. CAULDRON Tin price has not been waiting to find out. It has risen by 10% in the last week, as time spreads have tightened. Only a few weeks ago, the LME cash price of tin was trading at $167 below the three-month price. This week, the price has flipped up to $105 as shorts have been forced to buy their positions. The price response to the Indonesian announcement says a lot about the fragility and dependence of the tin chain on a few large producers. One of the largest tin mining operations in the world is still not operational. Man Maw, in the semiautonomous Wa State of Myanmar, is expected to reopen after a two year absence. The flow of raw tin materials to China is still a trickle. This suggests that the mine has not yet reached its previous production level before the authorities closed it for an audit. The Bisie Tin Mine in the Congo has resumed operations after a brief suspension in March, due to the M23 rebels' advance. The threat is still there. M23 appears not to be aware that the United States is leading the effort to resolve the decades-old conflicts in eastern Congo. Kony Ng’ang’a, one of the M23 leaders, was uncompromising in an interview with CNN last month. Tin traders had already enough flash points to worry about. Now they have a new one. These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.
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Net-Zero Banking Alliance collapses following mass exodus of members
Net-Zero Banking Alliance will cease operation after a vote. The group had already lost a number of members due to allegations made by some U.S. legislators that its membership violated antitrust laws. In 2021, the alliance was established as the main organisation of the banking sector to lead the global effort by the industry to reduce carbon emissions. In August, after the departure of many large banks, a new structure was proposed to replace the membership-based organization with a "framework project". A spokesperson for the group stated that "as a consequence of this vote, NZBA will cease its operations immediately." The resources developed over a period of several years will be available to banks who are seeking guidance on setting decarbonisation goals. The spokesperson stated that "the Guidance for climate target setting for banks and supporting implementation resources is the most widely-used global banking framework focused on specifically setting decarbonisation goals and will remain publically available." This decision is similar to one made by a climate group in the insurance industry for 2024. After facing similar political pressure, another climate-focused asset management organisation is also evaluating its next steps. It's a bitter disappointment to see that the largest banks in the World voted to step back from their commitments around preventing the worst effects on global warming," said Jeanne Martin. She is co-Director for Corporate Engagement at the non-profit ShareAction. Martin said that senior bankers must use their influence to increase standards of accountability for climate change if they want to see the transition to clean energy become a reality. (Reporting and editing by Virginia Furness, Jane Merriman, and Simon Jessop)
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EU allocates $1.1 billion to Spain as aid for the recovery from the Valencia floods
The European Commission announced on Friday that it had allocated an aid package worth 945 million euro ($1.1 billion) for Spain to recover from the worst flash floods recorded in Spain's history. Nearly 240 people lost their lives in Spain after torrential rainfalls in October last year triggered floods which swept across eastern and southern Spain. Valencia's south suburbs were the most severely affected area, where over 220 people perished. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has announced a 2.3 billion euro aid package to rebuild areas in the region that were affected by flooding, which he said was caused by climate changes. The European Commission announced on Friday that the total amount of aid earmarked for recovery after the floods will be around 1.6 billion euro, with 645 million additional euros coming from Spain’s cohesion fund which would be reallocated. In a statement, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission said: "This commitment reflects a determination to assist member states in building greater resilience and coping with future crises."
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Keep calm and carry on with MORNING BID AMERICAS
What is important in U.S. markets and global markets today By Anna Szymanski, Editor-in-Charge, Open Interest Hello Morning Bid readers! The U.S. shutdown has not affected global equity markets much this week. All three major U.S. indexes reached record highs on the Thursday, and Asian and European markets are on track to post gains for the week early on Friday. This shutdown may delay vital government data and make the Federal Reserve's task even more difficult. Artificial intelligence may be to blame for the Fed's current economic situation, which is characterized by a slow job growth rate and an annualized growth of almost 4%. Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large at ROI Financial Markets, argues, that the U.S. economic system could be affected if the AI equity bubble bursts. The private payrolls for September have been released. Investors, while not putting too much weight on this data (which economists don't tend to do), took note of the largest monthly decline in employment since over two years. Gold's seventh consecutive weekly increase was boosted by hopes of continued Fed easing. Oil prices dropped on energy markets for most of the week due to expectations of increased supply. This could include accelerated production from OPEC+. However, Brent crude fell 1% on Friday morning following the news of a Chevron refinery fire in El Segundo, which is one of the biggest on the U.S. West Coast. Ron Bousso, ROI Energy's Columnist, argues that Big Oil has become more bullish on the future outlook while becoming more bearish in the short term. Clyde Russell of ROI Asia Commodities writes that predicting what will happen on the oil market this year is difficult. Three of the main drivers of crude price are the unwinding OPEC+ cuts in production, China storage flows, and geopolitical conflicts. All of these are hard to predict accurately. Gavin Maguire, ROI Energy Transition columnist, explains how Italy's economic troubles may actually have climate benefits. Clyde Russell explains why the low prices for some minerals do not reflect the importance of these minerals to the global energy transformation. Andy Home, ROI Metals columnist, looks at the fragility in the copper supply chain and highlights the disastrous events that occurred at Freeport McMoRan’s Grasberg Mine last month. Check out what the ROI team recommends you read, watch, and listen to as we enter the weekend. Stay informed and prepared for the coming week. Please contact me at This weekend we are reading... GAVIN MAGUIRE ROI Global Energy Transition: According to this analysis by Carbon Brief, the electricity demand of Great Britain will be fully met by clean energy for an unprecedented period in 2025. This is pretty impressive considering that the country was powered by fossils fuels to a high percentage up until 2010. ANDY HOME: ROI Metals columnist Anjana Ahuja's article in the Financial Times is my read of the week. She discusses groundbreaking work on the concept black hole stars. This raises the cosmological questions of whether black holes or galaxies with matter came first. RON BOUSSO is the ROI Energy Columnist. The book More and more and more by Jean-Baptiste Fressoz provides a fascinating history of energy throughout the centuries. The book argues against the notion of an energy shift, arguing that new energy sources have always been added to the world. JAMIE MCGEEVER, Columnist at ROI Markets: United States, Inc. is a compilation of four Project Syndicate Articles that highlight several fundamental flaws when trying to run the U.S. Government like a business. Listening to... The UN General Assembly is examined in depth. Correspondents examine the challenges of global multilateralism in a time when history is changing. "Facing Coming Storms", a podcast produced by the British Army Centre for Historical and Conflict Research and the Project for Study of the 21st Century, is available on iTunes. This episode features a conversation between PS21 Executive Director Peter Apps and Admiral Nils vang, the former head of Denmark's Navy. Sign up for the newsletter to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email. Subscribe to the Morning Bid newsletter Website You can find us on LinkedIn. The opinions expressed are solely those of their authors. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and freedom from bias. (By Anna Szymanski)
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Shares of USA Rare Earth surge after a report miner has been in close contact with the White House
USA Rare Earth's shares rose 10% on Friday in premarket trading after it was reported that its CEO Barbara Humpton had said the company was in discussions with the White House. In an interview on CNBC, Humpton answered a question regarding the company's interest in striking a business deal with the Trump Administration. USA Rare Earth has not responded to our request for comment immediately. In March, U.S. president Donald Trump invoked emergency powers to increase domestic production of vital minerals. This was part of an effort to counter China's near total control of this sector. The Trump administration acquired a 5% share in Lithium Americas earlier this week. It also took a separate 5% interest in the joint venture between General Motors and the company, Thacker Pass, which will be the largest source of lithium in the Western Hemisphere. MP Materials announced a multi-billion dollar deal in July with the U.S. Government to increase production of rare earth magnets. The Defense Department became its largest shareholder. Rare earths is a grouping of 17 metals which are used in magnets to turn energy into motion. China had stopped exports as part of the trade spat between Trump and China in March. However, this dispute showed signs of easing by June as tensions grew. USA Rare Earth is developing a mine at Sierra Blanca in Texas, and a manufacturing facility for neo-magnets in Stillwater in Oklahoma. Both are expected to be commercialized in the first half 2026. The company's market capitalization is about $2.59 Billion as of the last close. (Reporting and editing by Shilpa Majumdar in Bengaluru)
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No payrolls, no problem as stocks hit record highs
The world stock market was on track for a solid gain this week and new record highs as the unstoppable rise in tech stocks and expectations of lower U.S. rates offset uncertainty over the U.S. shutdown. Investors have mostly ignored the 15th shutdown since 1981. But on Friday, it meant that traders were unable to get the most important economic data of the month - the U.S. monthly payroll figures. MSCI's 47-country world share index didn't seem to be bothered by the overnight record highs in Wall Street and Europe on Thursday. Equities have had their best week since early April. The euro also ticked up on Friday thanks to the Eurozone services sector PMIs. They accelerated to a high of eight months due to moderate growth in Germany and Spain. However, France's political uncertainties continued to weigh. Christopher Hodge is the U.S. economist for Natixis. He said that the lack of payrolls later has in some way bolstered forecasters' current views on the possibility of another rate cut this month. Hodge added that the markets had also dealt with shutdowns in the U.S. for a long time. The only difference this time around is that the economic and policy cycle is more ambiguous. Benchmark government bonds yields, the main driver for global borrowing costs, increased in both the U.S. The markets have almost completely priced in a Fed rate cut of 25 basis points this month, and at least four by the end 2026. GOING GOLD The MSCI main Asian share index rose overnight, closing with a weekly gain of 2.3%. It has now increased by about 23% in this year. China and other parts of Asia were closed on holiday. Trading was therefore lighter than usual, although Taiwan reached a new record high. Japan's Nikkei also rose 1.5% before the weekend's crucial vote to determine the next Prime Minister. Wall Street futures also pointed higher. All three major U.S. indices closed at new peaks on Friday, buoyed by the insatiable enthusiasm of investors for AI. Weiheng chen, global investment strategist, J.P. Morgan Private Bank said that investors seem willing to give Washington some time to settle its differences, even though a prolonged shut down may begin to affect the markets. Chen stated that investors are currently more interested in the possible impacts of the Fed rate-cutting cycles, immigration and trade policy, economic data and corporate earnings. Investors have relied on alternative data, both public and private, to gauge the state of the U.S. labor market. The dollar is now under pressure. The dollar index, which compares it to six other major currencies, is down again in Europe. It's on track for its largest weekly drop since august. The Japanese yen is the most significant beneficiary of the drop in the dollar, although it fell 0.3% on Friday to 147.74 dollars after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Umeda failed to provide any clues as when the Bank will raise interest rates next. Oil prices in commodities recovered slightly for the day, but are on track to experience their biggest weekly decline in more than three months. Brent crude futures were at $64.81 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $61.30 a barrel. Gold, on the other hand, is on track to reach a record high of $3.896 per ounce, which was set on Thursday. Low interest rates make it a popular asset in times of uncertainty. The stock has risen 47% in the past year. Gold is the best safe haven as the U.S. Dollar's position as the world reserve currency is being tested. We continue to see gold as the ultimate asset diversifier, said Greg Hirt.
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The world food price index drops as sugar and dairy prices fall, while meat prices rise.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations reported on Friday that global food commodity prices fell in September, as decreases in dairy and sugar offset a new high for meat prices. The FAO Food Price Index (which tracks a basket international traded food commodities) averaged 128,8 points in September. This is down from an August revised to 129,7. The index rose 3.4% over the same period last year. However, it is down nearly 20% from its record high in March 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. Lowest Sugar Prices Since March 2021 Last month, the indicator fell by 4.1%, reaching its lowest level since March 2021. FAO stated that the fall in sugar prices reflected an improved supply outlook with Brazil's production exceeding expectations and India and Thailand's harvest prospects being favorable. The dairy price index of the agency fell 2.6% on a month-to-month basis, mainly due to a steep decline in butter prices in Oceania amid an increase in production prospects. FAO's benchmark cereal price fell 0.6% from August. Wheat prices dropped for the third consecutive month because of large harvests and low international demand. Prices of maize also fell, partly due to a temporary suspension in export taxes. The rice index of the agency also fell by a month due to reduced orders from buyers in Africa and the Philippines. US BEEF MARKET DRIVES RECORD MEAT PRICES Vegetable oil fell in price by 0.7%, as palm and soybean oil quotes declined and offset the increase for sunflower and rapeseed oils. FAO's indicator of meat prices rose 0.7%, reaching a record high. This was due to the increase in beef and lamb meat quotes. The price of beef also reached new heights, boosted by a strong demand in America amid a limited supply. In a separate document, the FAO raised its forecast of global cereal production for 2025 from 2.961 million metric tons last month to 2.971 millions metric tons. It said that the latest forecast showed a 3.8% increase in output compared to 2024, which is the highest annual growth since 2013. The upward revision has been attributed to the higher production prospects of wheat, maize and risotto. Reporting by Gus Trompiz, Editing by Mark Potter
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What is known about Indonesia's radioactive contamination
Indonesia detected radioactive contamination in a sprawling area of industrial zones near Jakarta. The zone was found to contain high levels Caesium 137 (Cs-137), an artificial radionuclide. What we know about the world so far is summarized in these facts: - Two sites in August were found to have high levels of Cs 137 contamination. Indonesia's Environment Minister now states that the contamination was discovered in approximately 10 locations within the Modern Cikande Industrial Estate which is home to various industries. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States say that Cs-137 can be found in medical devices and gauges. Cs-137 is also a byproduct of nuclear fission in nuclear reactors, and of testing nuclear weapons. Indonesia does not have nuclear weapons or reactors. The environment minister stated that the radiation reading at some industrial estates in Indonesia is 1,000 microSieverts (or 1 milliSiervert per hour). The units used to measure radiation are Sieverts. They quantify the amount of radiation that is absorbed by the human tissue. Natural radiation exposure is between 2 milliSievert and 3 milliSiervert. Exposure to 100mSv per year is the level where any increase in cancer risks is evident. One Sievert (1,000 milliSierverts) cumulatively would cause cancer in 5 of 100 people exposed. At least nine individuals have been treated due to exposure at the Indonesian Industrial Estate. It's unclear how long the workers or residents were exposed to the contamination and how much they took in while living near the highest levels. Authorities believe that the metal factory located on the estate is the source of contamination. The estate was investigated first for contamination following the August discovery by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration that a batch exported from Indonesia to the United States contained Cs-137. The shrimp were processed at the industrial estate. The FDA stated that the shrimps did not enter U.S. trade. The FDA has derived an intervention level for Cs137 of 68 Bq/kg. This is lower than the level detected in this shipment. FDA - FDA stated that the product was not a serious hazard for consumers but warned against eating or selling the shrimp imported by this company. The FDA said that avoiding products containing such levels would reduce exposure to low-level radioactivity, which could have adverse health effects with continued exposure. The Indonesian Industrial Estate is still in operation, but the authorities are closely monitoring it and taking steps to decontaminate. In January 2020, Indonesian nuclear agency detected Cs137 contamination near a residential area of Serpong, in South Tangerang. (Reporting and editing by Martin Petty, Clarence Fernandez).
Take Five: Low Visibility Ahead
Even though the U.S. Government is shut down, this has not stopped stocks from reaching new highs. They are confident that rate cuts that favor bulls will continue to keep momentum. One problem is that it's difficult to see what's happening with the economy. Here is your week ahead from Alden Bentley, Rocky Swift and Amanda Cooper, in London, and Alun, Dhara and Amanda Ranasinghe in New York.
1/ DOLLAR BEAR SHARPENS THEIR CLAWS
The dollar is in a good position to start the final quarter of 2025. After falling in the first two quarterly periods, due to criticism of U.S. exceptionalism, the dollar ended Q3 with an 1% increase against major competitors. The greenback is still down 10% this year, but its stabilisation has brought some calm to the nearly $10 trillion a day FX markets. The immediate threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve, a source of potential dollar stress, has abated. The weak labour market adds to Fed rate cut bets. Dollar bears are unlikely to hibernate long, especially if the U.S. shutdown continues. Experts in FX say that the yen is particularly attractive, while the euro may still reach $1.20, which it was so close to reaching last month.
2/ WHO NEEDS DATA? The U.S. data schedule for next week is light. This means that further market disruptions from the shutdown of the federal government should be minimal. Also, the U.S. Treasury Department will conduct a normal note and bond auction.
The market is likely to make due without the U.S. International Trade Report on Tuesday and Friday's preliminary University of Michigan October sentiment index.
Treasury will sell $58 billion in notes for three years on Tuesday, $39 Billion in 10-year notes on Wednesday, and $22 Billion in 30-year bonds Thursday. Bond market cannot yet calculate the fiscal impact of a furlough of federal employees indefinitely. Demand could be strong as long as the benchmark yield on 10-year bonds is above 4%.
The earnings parade for Wall Street's largest banks will begin the following week with the announcement of the third-quarter results by Delta Airlines, Levi Strauss and other companies.
3/ A SHOT IN THE ARROW Global pharmaceutical stocks that were in trouble have received a boost thanks to a deal struck between Pfizer, the U.S. and Medicaid in which the price of prescription drugs will be lowered in exchange for tariff reductions. U.S. president Donald Trump took aim at the industry over high U.S. drug prices, which sent shares of drugmakers to multi-decades lows. Investors now believe that the agreement, which is more benign, will lead to more deals.
The U.S. Healthcare stocks have gained 5.6% in the past week, their largest weekly gain since over three years. European healthcare stocks are up 7.6% and on track to their best week ever.
It's now time to wait and see if the deals come to fruition, and if they justify this optimism. The U.S. also imposed tariffs on imported kitchen cabinets, furniture and timber. Trump has said that he will impose a 100 percent tariff on all films made overseas which are sent to the U.S.
The oil industry is struggling to cope with the hefty global supply, which only seems to increase. Demand also does not seem to be able to keep up. According to the International Energy Agency, there may be a surplus of 3 million barrels a day by 2026 compared to an excess of 600,000. The OPEC+ Group, which includes OPEC, other exporters, including Russia, met at the weekend. It is expected that the group will accelerate its pace of unwinding production curbs imposed by the pandemic.
Around $65 per barrel, the price of crude oil is about half that it was in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. Geopolitics will continue to be the wildcard for producers, consumers and forecasters alike.
5/ DIRECTION UNDER DOWN
It is almost certain that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rates will be cut next week. How much will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates?
In August, the RBNZ cut interest rates to a low of just 3%. This was the lowest rate in three years. Last month, data showed that New Zealand's second-quarter economy shrank by 0.9% due to uncertainty over tariffs and a weakening housing market. Money markets are fully pricing in a quarter point cut to 2.5% at the RBNZ meeting on October 8. However, the likelihood of a half-point drop has risen to 44.5% compared to about 25% one week ago. The RBNZ's policy divergence from the Reserve Bank of Australia which held rates at the same level in September could cause further weakness for the kiwi. It is already down three years against the Antipodean counterpart.
(source: Reuters)