Latest News

Data dampens hopes for policy easing as stocks fall and yields rise

Data dampens hopes for policy easing as stocks fall and yields rise

Investors worried that the Federal Reserve would be more cautious in cutting interest rates after Thursday's surprising strong economic data. U.S. Treasury rates rose after the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Commerce Department said that the U.S. economic growth was faster than initially thought in the second-quarter, thanks to a drop in imports and an increase in consumer spending. The second quarter gross domestic products increased at a rate of 3.8% annualized, compared to initial reports that it would be 3.3%. New orders for U.S. manufactured capital goods increased unexpectedly in August. However, a decline in the shipments of those goods suggests a modest pace of growth of business expenditure on equipment in this quarter.

The Labor Department reported on Thursday that new claims for unemployment benefits dropped by 14,000, to 218,000 seasonally-adjusted for the week ending September 20. The economists polled had predicted 235,000 claims for this latest week.

Matt Stucky is the chief portfolio manager of equities for Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company. He said, "If you want to continue fueling equities higher and wider than what we have seen in the past couple of years, then you need the Fed to ease and ease materially until 2026." Austan Goolsbee, the president of the Fed Bank of Chicago, said on Thursday that he supports the interest rate cut last week because the labor markets are cooling. However, he is not keen to do much more policy easing as long as inflation is moving in the wrong direction and is above the target. Stephen Miran, the Fed governor, said in Fox Business' Mornings with Maria that high interest rates are making the U.S. more susceptible to shocks. This is due to unfounded concerns about inflation among Federal Reserve policymakers. Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, said that she "fully supports" the Fed's decision to reduce its policy rate by a quarter point last week. She also expects more reductions in the future. She said that it was difficult to predict the timing of these cuts. After the data and commentary, Wall Street indexes fell to their lowest levels in a week. At 02:41 pm, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 146.95, or 0.32 percent, to 45,975.28, while the S&P500 fell 32.12, or 0.48 percent, to 6,605.85. The Nasdaq Composite also fell 114.50, or 0.51 percent, to 22,383.34.

MSCI's global stock index fell 6.30 points or 0.64% to 973.11, after reaching its lowest level since Sept. 11.

Investors focused on the Fed's comments. Earlier, the pan-European STOXX 600 Index closed down by 0.66%. It had touched its lowest level since September 5. Med-tech stocks were under pressure following news that the U.S. opened new import-related investigations. In government bonds, U.S. Treasury yields rose on Thursday following stronger-than-expected second-quarter economic data that could strengthen the case for a rates pause from the Fed at its October meeting.

Molly Brooks is the U.S. Rates Strategist at TD Securities. She said that the rise in yields on two-year and 10-year Treasury notes was more a reaction to the surprise of the GDP. "But I still think that markets are biased towards a future slowdown of data."

The yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose by 3 basis points, to 4.178% from 4.147% at late Wednesday. Meanwhile, the 30-year bond's yield dropped 0.4 basis point to 4.7536%.

The yield on the 2-year bond, which moves typically in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve), rose by 6.7 basis points, to 3.666% from 3.598%. The dollar rose against the euro and the yen, on the back of signs that the U.S. economic growth was faster than expected in the second quarter. This could have a restraining effect on Fed rate easing. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies, including the yen, euro and others) rose by 0.72%, reaching 98.54. The euro fell 0.71% to $1.1654, and the dollar gained 0.64% against the Japanese yen. The pound fell 0.83%, to $1.3332.

The dollar gained 0.67% against the Swiss Franc after the Swiss National Bank kept interest rates at zero Thursday, its first pause in the past 2023.

The oil price recovered earlier losses and settled near the seven-week high of Wednesday, while economic data dampened optimism about rate cuts.

Brent crude closed at $69.42 a barrel, an increase of 0.16% or 11 cents for the day. U.S. Crude settled at $64.98 per barrel down by 0.02% or 1 cent. Gold, the safe-haven asset, recovered from its early session losses but was still well below Wednesday's high.

Spot gold increased by 0.56%, to $3756.93 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures rose 0.06%, to $3.734.20 per ounce.

Bitcoin, the most popular cryptocurrency, fell by 3.47%, to $109 656.05, after reaching its lowest level since September.

(source: Reuters)