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Shanghai copper reaches record high due to tight supply
Shanghai copper reached a record-high on Thursday. This was boosted by the sharp increase in London Metal Exchange cancellations, which signaled a tightening of supply outside of the United States. Also, bets increased that Federal Reserve rates would drop this month. As of 0240 GMT the most active copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange had risen 2.45% to 91150 yuan (12,893.96) per kilogram, after reaching an all-time-high of 91400 yuan during the morning. The rally was triggered by the record-breaking high reached on Wednesday for LME three-month copper benchmark. London copper rose 0.08% to $11,497 per tonne on Thursday. LME data showed that on Wednesday, 50,725 tonnes of copper were cancelled in South Korea and Taiwan warehouses 0#MCUSTX, which brought the amount of copper on warrant in LME sheds down to its lowest level since July, at 105.275 tons. Analysts at Chinese broker Jinrui stated in a report that the sharp increase in LME warrants cancelled suggested that expectations for tightening of supply on markets outside of the United States were starting to materialise. Glencore cut back its copper production forecast for 2026 on Wednesday but still said that it expected to see a rise by 2035. Goldman Sachs has raised its average LME Copper Price Forecast for the First Half of 2026 from $10,415 to $10,710. The dollar fell on Thursday as a result of mediocre economic data that bolstered the argument for a Fed rate reduction next week. Tin prices have risen to their highest levels in over three and a half years. Shanghai tin rose 3.50% to 320,160 Yuan per ton after reaching its highest level since April 2022, when it was 323,700 Yuan. London tin fell 0.38% to $40,625 per ton after reaching $41,010 earlier. This was also the highest price since April 2022. Aluminium, zinc, and lead all rose in price. Nickel also increased by 0.22%. Aluminium was up by 0.26% in London. Zinc gained 0.10%, while lead and nickel both rose 0.15%. Thursday, December 4, DATA/EVENTS(GMT) 0930 S&P Global PMI: MSC Composite - Output Nov 1330 Initial US Jobless Clm 29, Nov, w/e (1 = 7.0692 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and Editing by Subhranshu, Sahu, and Lewis Jackson)
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Asia markets mixed; sentiment tepid with Fed on the horizon
The dollar fell to a five-week-low on Thursday while Asian stocks had a dull start to their trading session. Weaker-than-expected data from the economy confirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates during its meeting next Monday. The Nikkei rose by 0.8% while MSCI’s broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 0.1%. This was due to declines in Korea, New Zealand, and Australia. S&P 500 futures are little changed as the momentum of U.S. stocks overnight has waned in Asia. The Russell 2000 index rose 1.9% on Wednesday, while the benchmark S&P 500 also gained ground. Gains were made after the U.S. private employment data showed their largest drop in over two-and-a half years. A separate survey by the Institute for Supply Management revealed that its measure of employment in the services sector contracted in November. The subindex of prices received fell to a 7-month low. Henry Russell, an economist at ANZ, said on a podcast that this move is in line with his view that recent supercore inflation will subside and pave the way for a resumption in disinflation by 2026. "We still believe that the Fed should continue to reduce interest rates in response to the downside risks of the labour market," he added, adding that the bank anticipates a cut of 25 basis points at the meeting next week and more easing next. Fed funds futures indicate an 89% implied probability that the U.S. Central Bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting, which is scheduled for December 12. This compares to an 83.4% implied probability a week earlier. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket six currencies, fell last by 0.4% to 98.878, its lowest level in nine consecutive sessions. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond in the United States was last stable at 4.0749% after the Financial Times reported that bond investors had expressed concern to the U.S. Treasury about Kevin Hassett's potential to aggressively reduce interest rates to align himself with President Donald Trump. In Hong Kong, the Chinese yuan remained stable in offshore trading after reaching its highest level against the U.S. Dollar in over a year. The greenback fell to its lowest level against the renminbi in October 2024. The last time it traded was at 7.056 Yuan. The Australian dollar gained 0.1% following official data showing that Australian household expenditure surged the most in nearly two years in October. Meanwhile, the goods trade surplus of the country grew more than expected due to a rise in gold exports for the second consecutive month. The Japanese chip makers in the AI supply chains advanced after reports that Trump met with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang to discuss export control, citing an informed source. Tokyo Electron rose 0.7%. The recent surge in precious metals continues. Silver was up 0.1% to $58.5415 an ounce. Gold was up 0.2% at $4,213.38. The metal had hit a new record high on Wednesday of $58.98. (Reporting and editing by Gregor Stuart Hunter.
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Chevron will spend up to $ 19 billion in the next year on US and Guyana oil production
Chevron announced on Wednesday that its capital expenditures for 2026 would be between $18 and $19 billion. The oil major is focusing on investments in Guyana and production in the U.S. The range falls at the lower end of the previous guidance, which put annual investments between $18 billion to $21 billion until 2030. Last month, the second-largest U.S. producer of oil outlined a strategy to reduce costs, increase efficiency and boost returns to investors by the end decade. In a recent statement, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth stated that the 2026 capital program would focus on opportunities with the highest return while maintaining discipline and increasing efficiency. This will allow us to increase cash flow and earnings. Around $17 billion is expected to be spent upstream. Of that, approximately $9 billion will go to the United States. Chevron has said that it will spend $6 billion in American shale, and expects to produce 2 million barrels equivalent of oil per day. The offshore production budget will be around $7 billion, which includes projects in the Eastern Mediterranean, Guyana and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Spending on downstream will be around $1 billion. This is a slight decrease from this year. Chevron completed its $55 billion purchase of Hess last July. The main asset was a 30% stake on the Stabroek Block, a prolific oil field in Guyana. The deal included new assets within the Bakken Shale Formation in the U.S.
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NASA study shows that satellite light pollution can interfere with space telescopes
The exponential growth in satellites in low-Earth orbits has led to improvements in telecommunications, including broadband in rural and remote regions around the world. The increase in satellites in low-Earth orbit has also led to an explosion in light pollution, which threatens the work of orbiting astronomical observatory. NASA's new study on four space telescopes, two of which are currently in operation and two more that are planned, estimates that many images taken by these observatories within the next decade will be affected by light emitted by or reflected from satellites orbiting low Earth. Researchers calculated that satellite light could contaminate about 40% of the images taken by NASA Hubble Space Telescope, and 96% of the images taken by SPHEREx Observatory of U.S. Space Agency. The researchers also calculated that images taken by the European Space Agency’s planned ARRAKIHS Observatory and China’s planned Xuntian Telescope could be similarly affected. Researchers said Hubble's narrow field of vision would make it less susceptible to damage. Orbiting telescopes play a crucial role in space exploration. Orbiting telescopes can see a wider spectrum of electromagnetic radiation than traditional ground-based instruments. They also get clearer images because they are not affected by atmospheric disturbances. The study, published in Nature, was led by NASA's Ames Research Center, California. Satellites can cross in front cameras as they stare into the universe, trying to reveal distant galaxies. They leave bright traces of lights that erase the faint signal we receive from space. This problem was well-known for ground-based observatories. "Space telescopes, which are much more expensive than ground-based telescopes and located in pristine locations in space, were believed to be free from light pollution until recently," Borlaff said. In 2019, approximately 2,000 satellites were in low-Earth-orbit. The number is now around 15,000 Borlaff stated that industry proposals foresee 560,000 satellites on low-Earth orbit within the next decade. Borlaff stated that "to give an idea how much this number has increased recently, in the last four-year period - from 2021 to -2025 - we have launched more low-Earth-orbit satellites than in all the previous seven decades in space flight together." Researchers used data from satellite operators, including SpaceX's Starlink and China's Guowang, to simulate orbital layers for each constellation of satellites. The researchers then looked at specific telescope properties such as orbital altitude, trajectory and field of view. Borlaff explained that once we had our simulated telescopes watching our simulated universe we could count how many times the satellites crossed our observatories - or "photobombed" them - and measure their brightness at the time of the event. Satellites emit and reflect multiple types of light. They reflect the light of the Earth and the Moon, which are very bright in low-Earth orbit. Satellites emit not only optical light but also infrared radiation, which is generated by the temperature of the satellite's components. They also reflect radio waves from Earth and their antennas," Borlaff explained. Researchers said that one solution to the problem is to place satellites in orbits lower than the ones where telescopes are located. Some telescopes located in more distant orbits will be better protected from light pollution. The study did not examine the effects of satellites on NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope or the European Space Agency’s Euclid Observatory, nor NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope. They are located much farther from Earth than telecommunication satellites. Borlaff stated that, "for the time being, it is unlikely they will be affected by contamination of this kind." However, these unaffected telescopes only provide a small fraction of the total number of astronomical observations. Borlaff stated that the robots are used only for specific scientific purposes and their operational time is very limited.
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Codelco and Glencore partner up on a Chilean smelter
The companies announced on Wednesday that Glencore, a Swiss miner and trader, and Chilean state-owned copper producer Codelco have signed a preliminary agreement to work together on a smelter in Chile. Codelco will provide the copper concentrate, and Glencore will build the smelter, which has a processing capacity of about 1.5 million tons per year, in Antofagasta in the northern part of Chile. Experts in the industry say that a project this large would require an investment of $1.5 billion - $2 billion. Glencore will carry out a feasibility study and the companies aim to finalize the agreement by the first half next year. The companies stated that if the project proceeds, construction would begin in 2030, and operations would begin between 2032-2033. Codelco said that Glencore was selected after a competitive bid process. As part of the agreement, it agreed to provide Glencore with up to 800,000. metric tons per year of concentrate for a minimum of ten years. Chile has only 6% of the global copper smelting capability. It sends most of its copper to China for processing, where it holds half of that capacity. Treatment charges, the fees that miners pay to convert concentrate into metallic metal, have dropped below zero due to China's highly-efficient smelters. This has forced some overseas smelters from business. Chile wants to expand its own smelting capability, which includes a $1.7 billion investment smelter modernization The state-owned mining company ENAMI is the leader. Codelco Chairman Maximo Pacheco stated that the Glencore smelter would be located in the Antofagasta area, where the majority of Chile's mined copper is found, to provide logistical advantages and meet high operational and environmental standards. He said that increasing Chile’s smelting capability was meant to benefit Codelco, as well as "strengthen Chile’s sovereignty and strategic safety." (Reporting and editing by Daina-Beth Solomon and Fabian Cambero, Brendan O'Boyle, Deepa Babington and Kylie Madry)
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Silver scales new record high, gold remains steady
The gold price held steady Wednesday, buoyed up by the weak payroll data, which reinforced expectations for a U.S. rate cut next Monday. Silver also hit a new record high. By 2:03 pm, spot gold had not changed much from $4,202.06 per ounce. ET (1903 GMT), the session high was $4,241.29. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery settled 0.3% higher, at $4,232.50. Silver remained steady after reaching a session high of 58.98 dollars earlier. Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, says that the silver price hitting a record high overnight, coupled with this morning's missed ADP data is supportive of gold. "Gold is currently following silver, while silver has pulled back a bit." ADP's employment report on Wednesday showed that private payrolls in the United States fell by 32,000 positions in November. This was below economists' estimates of a 10,000-job rise. CME's FedWatch shows that there is an 89% probability that the U.S. Central Bank will reduce rates next week. Major brokerages have also predicted a rate reduction at the December 9-10 meeting. The markets are still waiting for the Personal Consumption Spending data from September, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. This data is due Friday. Gold is a non-yielding asset that tends to be favored by lower interest rates. Silver has risen 102% this year, mainly due to fears about market liquidity following outflows into U.S. stocks. It is also included in the U.S. Critical Minerals list. Haberkorn explained that silver's strength is due to concerns about supply at the exchange level, and added that it could reach $60/oz in the near future. The copper price also reached a new record on Wednesday, thanks to a weaker US dollar, concerns about supply and a tightening of the metal available in London Metal Exchange-registered warehouses. Palladium was up 0.4% at $1,466.98 and platinum rose 0.9% to 1,652.03 per ounce. (Reporting and editing by Anmol Mukherjee and Anushree Choubey in Bengaluru. Alan Barona and Leroy Leo)
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Trump proposes a sharp rollback of US vehicle fuel efficiency rules
Automakers and sources have confirmed that the Trump administration will announce on Wednesday a major rollback in fuel economy standards, which former president Joe Biden finalized last summer, as part of its latest push to encourage automakers to offer gasoline-powered vehicles. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration will propose a significant reduction in fuel economy requirements for model years 2022-2031. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration will also make radical changes to the program, including eliminating credit-trading among automakers. It will also end some credits that were given for fuel-saving technologies. The proposal will be unveiled by President Donald Trump, Stellantis CEO of Chrysler and Ford Motor at 2:30 pm EST (1930 GMT) with the help of the CEOs. Karoline Leavitt, White House Press Secretary, confirmed the plan on social media. She said that the administration would propose a "reset" of federal fuel standards. Trump signed a bill earlier this year that eliminated fuel economy penalties. The NHTSA also confirmed the plan, saying they would not be fined for models older than 2022. Credit trading is a risky business. It could harm automakers such as Tesla and Rivian who have sold credit to competitors making gas-powered cars. Ford CEO Jim Farley, in a press release issued ahead of the event praised Trump for "aligning gasoline economy standards with market reality." We can achieve real progress in carbon emissions and energy-efficiency while giving customers choices and affordability. Mary Barra, GM's CEO, said on Tuesday that the auto industry was faced with requirements in some states to have 35% of all new vehicles sold by 2026 be EVs before Congress blocked California’s zero-emission car rules in June. Barra stated that "we were going to shut down plants, because we wouldn't be able build and sell these vehicles." NHTSA increased the Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency requirements in June 2024 during the Biden Administration to around 50.4 miles per galon (21.4 kilometers per liter) for light-duty cars by 2031. This was up from 39.1 mpg last year. This rule didn't increase the requirements for light trucks in 2027 or 2028, but required 2% increases between 2029 and 2031. NHTSA, under Biden's leadership in 2022, increased fuel efficiency for model years 2024-2025 by 8% per year and for 2026 by 10%. Last year, the agency said that the passenger cars and trucks rule would reduce gasoline use by 64 billion gallons. It also cut emissions by 659 millions metric tons. Fuel costs will be reduced and drivers can expect to receive a net benefit of $35.2 billion. It was estimated that the 2022 rule would reduce fuel consumption by more than 200 billion gallon through 2050. Kathy Harris, director for clean vehicles of environmental nonprofit Natural Resources Defense Council said that "the Trump Administration is punishing drivers at the gas pump with higher prices, all in the name of the oil industry... The rules will increase the cost of fuel for drivers by hundreds of dollars every year. Trump has taken a number of steps that will make it easier for gas-powered cars to be sold and to discourage EV production. These include rescinding EV Tax Credits and preventing California from banning traditional gas-powered vehicle sales after 2035.
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Eni's Renewable Unit Buys Energy Customer Portfolio from Italy's ACEA
The Italian energy group Eni's low-carbon division has agreed to purchase some businesses from regional utility ACEA for 587 million euro ($685 millions), both companies announced on Wednesday. The companies stated that the price would be subject to the standard adjustment mechanisms applicable to this type of transaction. Eni's Plenitude, for example, could pay an extra 100 million euros to ACEA if specific performance targets were met by mid-2027. Plenitude will have over 11 million customers in Europe, an amount it had hoped to reach in 2028. The deal is expected to be completed by June of next year. Rothschild advised ACEA on the deal and said that it would focus the proceeds on energy networks, regulated businesses, and ACEA. This transaction will enable us to reinvest into infrastructure, innovation, sustainability, and the development of regulated business, resulting in a positive impact on ACEA's growth and result," ACEA CEO Fabrizio Palaermo stated in a press release. ($1 = 0.8573 euro) (Reporting and editing by Gavin Jones, Francesca Landini)
Markets make a big bet on Goldilocks' payroll number
Kevin Buckland gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.
The markets are in a positive mood as they anticipate that the Fed will continue to reduce rates by this month, and again at year's end.
The previous month's payrolls shockingly high reading sparked speculation that the U.S. would have to change its monetary policy quickly. This time, economists expect a slightly higher reading.
Fed Chair Jay Powell shocked many last month at the closely watched Jackson Hole Symposium with a keynote suggesting a reduction on September 17, unless data get in the way.
Fedspeak has generally been dovish. The window for further comments will close later today, as the central banks enters its blackout period leading up to the policy meeting.
The U.S. Stock Futures are heading higher after the S&P 500 closed at a record high overnight and the Nasdaq Composite was just 6 points away from doing the same.
European futures are also rising, while Asian markets are rising by about 1%.
The bond markets, too, that had become so volatile at first of the week, were calmed down by the recent soft U.S. employment data. This has bolstered the confidence in a non-farm payrolls that will continue the narrative of easier Fed policy.
The yields of Japanese 30-year government bonds have fallen by about half after reaching record highs Wednesday. U.S. Treasury yields of similar maturity have fallen to three-week-lows. Two-year and 10-year yields are at four-month lows.
The yields on British 30-year gilts have returned to their levels of a week earlier, before the spike that lasted four days and reached the highest level since 1998. German and French yields have fallen from their multi-year highs.
Gold is also waiting its turn, hovering just below the all-time high of Wednesday after a seven-day rally that was breathless.
It's clear that a positive reading on U.S. payrolls is crucial. There's little to distract us from the main event, which is the release of German factory data, British sales, and the revised GDP for the euro area.
The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Friday.
Payrolls in the United States
-Canada payrolls
Euro zone GDP revised
German industrial orders and manufacturing output
Halifax house prices, UK retail sales
(source: Reuters)