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Asian stocks are hesitant following Trump's visa crackdown
The dollar was stable on Monday, as traders considered the U.S. policy direction after the Federal Reserve cut rates last week. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump's crackdown on immigration and worker visas held back sentiment. After the Trump administration announced on Friday that it would charge companies $100,000 per year to obtain new H-1B visas, the focus will shift to Indian and tech stocks. This is a blow for the tech sector which relies heavily on skilled workers in India and China. S&P futures fell by 0.1% in the early morning trading. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose 0.09%. Tokyo's Nikkei rose 1% after dropping on Friday. India's $283-billion information technology sector will feel the pinch in the short term as the deteriorating relationship between India and the United States continues. Trump doubled tariffs last month on Indian imports to 50%, in part due to New Delhi's purchase of Russian oil. It's a threat to operating costs and margins. Kyle Rodda is a senior financial analyst with Capital.com. He said that it was possible to increase wages and labour costs. If they are unable to find enough workers within the U.S., tech companies could also face punitive actions. Investors are still keen to assess the U.S. macroeconomic policy after the Fed reduced interest rates last weekend but suggested a future phase of gradual easing. The week will be filled with a number of speeches from policymakers, and data on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is due Friday. This information will set the tone for rates in the near term. Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. He believes that the PCE core price index will rise 0.2% monthly, keeping the annual rate at 2.9%. This is the same as it was in July and higher than the 2.6% lowest level reached in April. The traders are pricing in a 44 basis point easing at the end of this year. The dollar is currently on an upward trend. The dollar index (which measures the U.S. money against six other currencies) was at 97.716. Chris Weston is head of research for Pepperstone. He said that "the USD's trajectory is less clear and the greenback's trading in the near term is a subject of greater debate." Treasury yields may drive USD flows, as a flood of Treasurys will be coming to the market and Fed speakers are scheduled. The Japanese yen is slightly weaker today at 148.20 U.S. dollars after strengthening on Friday, following the Bank of Japan’s hawkish vote where two members of its board voted against maintaining interest rates. The central bank maintained short-term rates at 0.5%. Board members Hajime Tamura and Naoki Tamura proposed, but failed, an increase to 0.75%. Markets interpreted this as a sign of a rise in borrowing costs in the near future. Vasu Menon is the managing director for investment strategy at OCBC. He said that Friday's announcement will be interpreted by markets as an indication that Japan's central bank has begun to become more hawkish. He said that it could lead to "expectations about future rate hikes, and the possibility of higher JGB yields as well as a stronger yen. This may not be good news for Japanese stocks and bonds on the short-term." Brent crude futures rose 0.3% to $66.89 per barrel in the commodities market. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Futures rose by 0.35% to 62.9. Gold prices rose 0.24%, to $3,692.79 an ounce. This is just a little bit short of the record high reached last week. (Editing by Shri Navaratnam).
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Malaysia will lower the RON95 fuel prices from September end in a subsidy adjustment
Anwar Ibrahim, the Prime Minister, announced on Monday that Malaysia would lower the price for its citizens of the popular RON95 fuel. The government is pushing ahead with a long-awaited plan Adjust fuel subsidies to provide relief on the cost of living. Anwar announced at a regular press briefing held at the Prime Minister's Department that, as of September 30, the price of subsidised RON95 will drop to 1,99 ringgit ($0.47) a litre. Anwar explained that the new subsidised price of fuel will be only available to Malaysians who have a valid driving license. Non-citizens are expected to pay 2,60 ringgit per litre at the petrol pump. Anwar revealed that the government would also limit subsidised fuel purchases to 300 litres of fuel per person per month, with ride-hailing drivers being exempted. He said that any savings from the changes in subsidy will go towards improving the public infrastructure and providing aid to the poor. The changes were announced by the government in July. However, they did not go to far as initially planned. Anwar's government has taken several measures to boost revenue, productivity and efficiency, including an increase in the minimum wage, higher electricity tariffs for heavy users, and an Expanded sales and Services Tax
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Oil prices rise as tensions flare up in Europe and the Middle East
The oil price rose on Monday, mainly due to geopolitical tensions in Europe and Middle East. However, the prospect of increased oil supply and concerns about trade tariffs impacting global fuel demand also weighed. Brent crude futures were up 28 cents or 0.42% to $66.96 a barrel by 0118 GMT, while U.S. West Texas intermediate crude was at $62.88 a barrel, an increase of 20 cents or 0.32%. Michael McCarthy, CEO Moomoo Australia & New Zealand's investment platform, said: "Reports from the weekend that Russia threatened over the Polish border reminded traders of the continuing risks to European energy safety coming from the north-east." Armed forces of NATO member Poland said that Polish and allied planes were deployed on Saturday morning to ensure the security of Polish airspace following Russian airstrikes against western Ukraine near its border. Three Russian military aircraft violated NATO Estonian airspace on Friday for 12 minutes, and on Sunday Germany's Air Force reported that a Russian plane had entered neutral airspace above the Baltic Sea. Diplomats have said that the United Nations Security Council will meet Monday to discuss Estonia's claim that Russian fighter planes violated Estonian airspace. Ukraine has intensified drone attacks against Russia's energy infrastructure in recent weeks. These include terminals and refineries. Meanwhile, U.S. president Donald Trump has asked the European Union not to buy Russian oil or gas. Four Western nations recognized the Palestinian state in Middle East news. This sparked a furious reaction from Israel, and increased tensions in this key oil producing region. Brent and WTI fell more than 1% last Friday, marking a slight drop from the previous week. Concerns about large supply and falling demand overshadowed expectations that the first interest rate cut of the year by the U.S. Federal Reserve will lead to more consumption. McCarthy stated that "there are underlying assumptions about the outlook for the market which include increased supply from USA, OPEC+, and now Russia as a response to a substantial decline in oil revenue." Iraq's oil exports have increased following the gradual unwinding voluntary production cuts in an OPEC+ Agreement, said the country's official oil marketing SOMO on Sunday. According to the Oil Ministry, Iraq exported an average of 3.38 million barrels of oil per day in August. SOMO estimates that September's average oil exports will range between 3.4 million and 3.45 million barrels per day. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing; Florence Tan)
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WSJ reports that Saks Global is in negotiations to sell a 49% stake in Bergdorf Goodman, for approximately $1 billion.
The Wall Street Journal, citing sources familiar with the situation, reported that Saks Global, parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue is in discussions to sell its 49% stake in luxury retailer Bergdorf Goodman, for a price of about $1 billion. The report said that at least four bidders, including Middle Eastern sovereign funds and strategic investors are in the race. A deal could be reached as early as next year. Saks Global is a new company. Last July Hudson's Bay Company's (HBC) $2.65 billion purchase of Neiman Marcus, which combined Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus with other luxury retailing and real estate assets. Journal reported that the proceeds of the deal will help Saks Global reduce its debt from its acquisition by Neiman Marcus. The report also stated that Saks Global was in the process selling real estate worth $600 million and owns property valued at approximately $9 billion. We could not verify the information immediately. Saks Global, Bergdorf Goodman and other retailers did not respond immediately to requests for comments outside of regular business hours. Reporting by Surbhi Misra, Bengaluru. Editing by Cynthia Osterman & Chizu Nomiyama
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Russian Defence Ministry says Ukrainian drones killed two and injured 15 in Crimea resort area
The Russian Defence Ministry reported that a Ukrainian drone attacked a Crimea peninsula resort area on Sunday, killing two people and injuring 15. The Ukrainian military launched a terrorist attack using drones with explosive payloads in Crimea's resort area at around 19.30 Moscow Time (1630 GMT), the ministry said on Telegram. According to preliminary reports, this terrorist attack resulted in the deaths of two civilians and injuries to 15 others of various degrees. The incident was described by the ministry as "a premeditated terrorist act on a civil target". Sergei Aksyonov had said earlier on Telegram, that the attack was against a sanatorium located in the town Foros. Aksyonov reported that a school had been damaged in the town and that fires broke out near Yalta to the north along Crimea's south shore. The Ukrainian authorities did not comment on the incident, and they could not independently confirm the report. In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea after a popular uprising that forced a pro-Russian president to flee Ukraine. Foros was made famous internationally in 1991, when Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, who had been detained by hardliners during a brief attempt to remove him, was temporarily held at a dacha (country house) of the government. (Reporting By)
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PREVIEW: New York to record Climate Week in spite of Trump's attacks on green agenda
Climate Week will kick off in New York City on Sunday, marking the biggest year ever for the event. Organizers report a record number companies participating and more than ever events to attend. This response was almost unanticipated in an event-hosting country that is the wealthiest nation on the planet. The host has a climate-denying program of increasing fossil fuels and rolling back pollution regulations, and defunding U.S. climate science and action. Climate Week organizers even wondered if people would show up, said Climate Group Chief executive Officer Helen Clarkson. Clarkson stated that there was a lot of enthusiasm. Climate Week, which has been held alongside the U.N. General Assembly every year since 2009, features more than 1,000 events, including panel discussions, presentations and swanky cocktails, hosted by environmental non-profits, companies and wealthy philanthropists. Climate Week last year, on the other hand, featured about 900 events. In an interview, former U.N. Climate Chief Christiana Figueres said that the boost in engagement was "exactly an antidote" to the attitude of the current U.S. Administration toward climate change. Figueres was involved in the creation of the 2015 Paris Treaty, which aims to keep global temperatures within 2 degrees Celsius. The goal is to reach 1.5 degrees Celsius. Figueres noted that ten years ago, national governments were pushing for climate change. However, since then, the situation is drastically different. Figueres stated that "the pull is now coming from stakeholders, the real economy and market forces which are pulling forward." Climeworks, a Swiss carbon capture company, has already booked nearly four times as many events for this year as compared to last year. The company raised $162 millions in February, mainly for the purpose of improving their technology and expanding the business, said Co-Chief executive Christoph Gebald. Gebald stated that "demand for carbon removals is continuing to increase." Climate Week has seen a "higher level of interest" from senior executives. A DIFFERENT WEB Climate Week, which coincides with the U.N. General Assembly Meeting, has become a great opportunity for CEOs and Investors to network with world leaders. On Wednesday, Secretary-General Antonio Guterrez will host a "climate summit" where many leaders are expected announce new climate goals, or Nationally Determinated Contributions. The United States and the European Union, who have led the global climate agenda for many years, will not be present. China, COP30's host Brazil, and other rapidly developing nations have played a greater role in setting the agenda. Climate sources say that China's plan to reduce emissions could be announced at any time, but it may not be as ambitious. The European Union has yet to agree on how ambitious these targets should be, raising concerns about the success of Brazil's COP30 Summit in just seven weeks. Lars Aagaard, Danish Climate Minister, said that Europe is known for being the leader in achieving ambitious goals and also the financial aspect of international agreements. But "Europe's place in the world has shifted." We account for 6% of the global emissions. We are also calling on all parties to the Paris Agreement to take responsibility." The region has made rapid progress with its energy transition. The EU projects a 54% decrease in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 by 2030 - meaning that member countries are almost on track to meet the EU's 55% goal for 2030. Experts say that companies should be part of the conversation as leaders will focus at the COP30 in November on implementing promises made in previous years. According to the non-profit Net Zero Tracker, more than half of the largest companies in the world have committed to achieving net-zero emission by the mid-century. This is in line with global climate goals. According to a study by the TPI Global Climate Transition Centre, at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSEPS), 98% of companies do not have any plans to align their spending with these commitments. "The challenge of New York Climate Week, and beyond, is to get individuals and institutions to come together and reimagine new ways we can work together to combat common threats," said Rajiv Shah. President of The Rockefeller Foundation. The foundation released a survey on Thursday that asked 36,348 respondents worldwide. It found that 86% of people believed that international cooperation is crucial to climate action. Reporting by Simon Jessop, Katy Daigle, and Kate Abnett, in London, Washington, D.C., & Brussels. Additional reporting by Axel Threlfall, London. Editing by Mark Porter.
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Ministry of Information: Israeli drone strikes in southern Lebanon kill five people, including children.
Lebanon's Health Ministry said that an Israeli drone struck Bint Jbeil in southern Lebanon on Sunday and killed five people including three children. Israel has targeted Hezbollah's positions in southern Lebanon, since the truce brokered by the United States between Lebanon and Israel in November. This was after more than a decade of conflict caused by war in Gaza. Lebanon's official news agency reported that the strike injured two people and damaged a motorbike. In a press release, Parliament Speaker NabihBerri stated that the father and three of his children had been killed. The mother was also injured. He stated that they were U.S. citizens. Israel has not yet responded to the report. Nawaf Salm, the Lebanese prime minister, said on X that "what happened was a blatant criminal act against civilians" and "a message of fear aimed at our people who are returning to their villages down south". Hezbollah is being pressured by the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Hezbollah’s rivals in Lebanon to disarm. Hezbollah said that it would be a grave mistake to even discuss disarmament when Israel continues airstrikes against Lebanon and occupies large areas of its southern territory.
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Iranian and European officials will meet in Vienna, as a re-imposition of sanctions is imminent
Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araqchi will meet officials from Britain France and Germany (the so-called E3) in Vienna, Iran’s state-run Nournews reported on Sunday. International sanctions against Tehran for its nuclear program are due to be reimposed by the end of the month. The agency did not give a date for the trip but said that the mutual negotiations and issues related to Iranian relations with Europe would be discussed. Last week, Iranian and European Ministers held discussions in an effort to avoid the reimposition sanctions against Tehran. According to two European and one Iranian diplomat, the talks failed to produce any significant breakthroughs. At the end of August, the E3 began a 30-day procedure to reimpose U.N. Sanctions. The E3 set up conditions that Tehran must meet in September to convince them not to use the "snapback" mechanism. The European trio proposed a conditional six-month delay on the reimposition sanctions against Iran. This offer is conditional on Iran allowing access to United Nations inspectors who are tasked with verifying and accounting for Iran's large stockpiles of enriched Uranium. Iran will also be expected to enter into negotiations with the United States. Since June, after Israel and the United States bombed Iranian nuclear sites, the status of Iran's reserves of enriched uranium has been uncertain. The West claims that Iran's nuclear program is not purely for civilian purposes, but Tehran insists it only wants to use nuclear energy peacefully. (Reporting and Editing by Ros Russel)
MORNING BID EUROPE - China markets are the latest to catch AI fever
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.
The market has had a difficult start to the month of September, with Wall Street away on vacation and much of Asia down. S&P futures are flat during what is usually a poor month. European share futures are hardly moving, but China is still well supported by liquidity seeking a home in the low-yielding world.
Chinese blue-chip stocks rose more than 10% in the last month. This was aided by reports that Beijing is pushing companies to create a domestic alternative to Nvidia AI chips.
Alibaba's Hong Kong shares jumped nearly 19%, the largest one-day gain since early 2022. This was due to optimism about its cloud business. DeepSeek was also reported to have chosen Huawei chips for some of its AI model training.
This may have led to some profit-taking in Japanese chip company Advantest. The stock fell 9.1% and gave back some of its near-50% gains in the last three months. SoftBank Group, an AI-focused investor, also fell 6%. This contributed to the Nikkei's 2% decline.
Chinese investors may also find it encouraging that President Trump's tariff policies are facing legal challenges. The tariffs will remain in effect until the Supreme Court hears the case in October. This could cause trading partners to delay negotiations with the White House.
Few, if any, of the supposedly agreed trade "deals", have actually been signed or ratified. They are more like concepts for a framework deal. The talks with Japan are stuck over rice while the negotiations with South Korea have been stymied despite recent meetings of leaders.
The markets seem to assume that the conservative majority of the Supreme Court can find a solution for Trump to maintain the tariffs. If the judges upheld the ruling of the appeals court, many deals would have been canceled and Trump's ability to negotiate new deals would be greatly reduced.
Treasury will also be required to borrow the $100 billion that was collected. Since it will likely be spent, this money would have to come from somewhere else. It would be a logistical nightmare and the money would not go to American consumers, but rather the importers that paid the tariffs.
Would importers reduce any price increases to the pre-tariff level or would they keep them high to increase margins? What happens to the 3 trillion dollars or more that taxes were supposed bring in for tax cuts?
Who knew that trade law could be so entertaining?
Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact
- European PMIs in August, EU unemployment figures for July
- Speech by ECB president Christine Lagarde. Piero Cipollone, Isabel Schnabel and other ECB Board Members will be making appearances.
(source: Reuters)