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UN: Conflict and climate threaten to halt progress in global hunger reduction
A U.N. study released on Monday said that the number of hungry people in 2024 fell for a 3rd straight year, falling from an era of COVID spike. Conflict and climate shocks also exacerbated malnutrition throughout much of Africa, and Western Asia. According to the State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World Report, which was jointly prepared by five U.N. organizations, 673 millions people or 8.2% of the global population will experience hunger in 2024. This is down from 8.5% in the 2023 report. The report, they said, focused on chronic and long-term issues and did not reflect the full impact of the acute crises caused by specific events or wars including Gaza. Maximo Torero is the chief economist of the U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization. He said that improved access to food was responsible for the overall decline, but warned that conflict and other issues in places like Africa and the Middle East could undo those gains. "If the conflict continues to escalate, it is inevitable that vulnerabilities will continue to increase and debt stress will continue to rise," he said on the sidelines a U.N. Food Summit in Ethiopia. In remarks delivered via video link at the summit, U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres stated that conflict continues to drive hunger in Gaza and Sudan. "Hunger feeds future instabilities and undermines peace." The U.N. report stated that the South American and Southern Asian regions will see the greatest progress in 2024. In South America, it fell from 4.2% to 3.8% by 2024. In Southern Asia it dropped to 11%, down from 12.2%. Torero stated that the progress in South America is largely due to better agricultural productivity, social programmes such as school meals and Torero's own words. It was mainly due to the new data that showed more people in Southern Asia had access to healthy food. In 2024, the overall hunger rate was still higher than 7.5% in 2019, before the COVID pandemic. In Africa, the picture is quite different. Productivity gains have not kept up with population growth, conflict, extreme weather, and inflation. Hunger is now more common than 20 years ago. In 2024, one fifth of the population on the continent (307 million) will be chronically malnourished. The report stated that Africa could have 500 million hungry people by 2030, which is nearly 60% of all the world's hungry. The report stated that the gap between global food prices inflation and overall inflation reached its peak in January 2023. This will increase the cost of diets, and hit low-income countries the hardest. It added that the overall adult obesity rate rose from 12% to 16% by 2022. According to the report, the number of people who cannot afford to eat a healthy meal has dropped by a third in the last five years. The figure was 2.76 billion. (Additional reporting by Aaron Ross from Nairobi and Sybille De La Hamaide from Paris. Editing by Andrew Heavens.)
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What are the differences between the US and EU trade agreements?
On Sunday, the European Union and United States announced that they had reached a deal to impose a 15% tariff on most EU exports. This is nearly three months after Britain agreed to a baseline tariff of 10%. Some politicians criticised the deal as being "unbalanced", and worse than Britain’s. Details of both deals are more complex than headline figures, and the EU agreement has not been fully confirmed. Here's a comparison between what we know and don't know about both deals. BASELINE TARIFFS The EU has agreed to a baseline tariff of 15% for the majority of its exports. This is lower than the rate of upto 30% that was threatened by U.S. president Donald Trump but higher than the base tariff rate of 10 % which is applied to British exports. The EU agreement, however, stipulates that the maximum rate is 15%, which is not added to the existing rates. The 10% base rate for Britain is added to the MFN rates, which the U.S. applies to all goods imported from its trading partners. This means that the actual tariff rate can be higher. The UK Fashion and Textile Association, for example, has pointed out that certain luxury goods face an MFN rate of 35% in the U.S. despite having a "baseline' rate of 10%. PHARMACEUTICALS In a few short weeks, the U.S. will announce its results of so-called Section 232 investigations into certain industries and determine tariff rates. Officials from the United States said that the EU-U.S. agreement already determines 15% tariffs for European pharmaceuticals. The results of the investigation will not change this, they added. In their deal with Britain, they said that it would negotiate "significantly preferred treatment outcomes in pharmaceuticals", depending on the results of the 232 investigation. When asked if Britain's pharma sector would be affected by tariffs in August, Trump replied that he would deal with Britain in pharma. He did not think the sector would "block" talks. In the interim, Britain's pharmaceuticals are not subject to tariffs. Britain has also promised to improve the environment for pharmaceutical firms in the country. However, it is still battling with multinationals on drug prices. Von der Leyen stated that the tariffs on EU exports of steel and aluminum will remain at 50%. However, these would be reduced and replaced with a quota-based system in due course. The United States imposes a 25% duty on British aluminium and steel exports. Both sides have agreed that this will be reduced to zero after the talks about quotas are completed. These talks have been stymied by "melted and poured", rules that govern where and how the steel is produced. Tata Steel, a British company that shut down its blast furnaces in the past year, has imported steel from India as well as from the Netherlands. The UK is now seeking to exempt itself from an American demand for steel to be "melted" and "poured" locally to qualify for lower duties. The deal reached on Sunday imposes a 15% baseline tariff on car exports from Europe to the U.S. Although the full details of the deal have not yet been released, neither party has mentioned a number for cars that will be covered by the rate. Britain has negotiated for a 10% tariff for its auto sector, but also has a 100,000 vehicle quota that leaves little room for growth in exports. British car exports above that quota are subject to a 25% tariff. AEROSPACE A Section 232 investigation into the aerospace sector is still ongoing, but the EU won't face any U.S. duties on its exports. After the deal reached with Washington, Britain has also eliminated its 10% tariffs in its aerospace industry. Reporting by Alistair Smout, with additional reporting from Jan Strupczewski in Brussels and Philip Blenkinsop. Editing by Giles Elgood.
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Carney: Canada-US talks in a high-intensity phase; some tariffs are likely.
Mark Carney, the Prime Minister of Canada, told reporters that talks between Canada and United States regarding a trade agreement are in a very intense phase. He reiterated that an agreement with no tariffs was highly unlikely. Both sides are working to reach an agreement before August 1, when U.S. president Donald Trump threatens to impose 35% tariffs on certain Canadian imports. The negotiations are in a very intense phase. "It's a complicated negotiation... We will only sign the deal that is right." Carney said. He said in a televised news conference that a landing area is possible. But we need to get there first, and then we'll have to see what happens. The United States has struck a The framework for a better understanding On Sunday, the United States and European Union signed a trade agreement that imposed a 15% tariff on imports of most EU products. Carney stated earlier this month, that Canada, which exports 75% to the United States, would likely be forced to accept tariffs. When asked if Canada would be hit, he replied that it was unlikely there would be any deals made without tariffs. "But it's a question of the level and the size of the tariffs." Reporting by David Ljunggren, Promit Mukherjee and Chizu Nomiyama; editing by Chizu nomiyama
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Gold drops 1% after US-EU agreement boosts risk appetite before Fed meeting
On Monday, gold fell to a three-week-low as a U.S. - European Union trade agreement lifted the dollar and risk-sentiment. Investors awaited new cues about rate policy at this week's Federal Reserve Meeting. As of 10:10 am, spot gold dropped 1% to $3304.87 an ounce. ET (1410 GMT), reaching its lowest level since the 9th of July. U.S. Gold Futures fell 0.6% to $3,320.20 an ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index rose to its highest level in a week, increasing the price of bullion for foreign buyers. "I believe the more trade news we receive, the higher the dollar will rise." These tariff deals lower the appeal of gold, driving the sell-off amid risk-on sentiment. A weekend agreement between U.S. president Donald Trump and the European Commission placed a 15% tax on EU goods. This is half of the initial rate threatened. It eased fears of an escalating trade war. This agreement follows the U.S. - Japan agreement of last week, and U.S. & Chinese officials will resume their talks in Stockholm, Sweden, on Monday to try and extend their 90-day trade truce. A U.S. Trade Representative said that no major breakthroughs were expected with China. Discussions would be focused on monitoring and implementing current commitments. Meir said that the gold price is not moving much because of the uncertainty surrounding the implementation or the unrealistic nature of the deals. When its two-day meeting ends on Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve will likely keep its benchmark interest rate between 4.25% and 4.50%. The markets continue to factor in a possible September rate cut. In an environment of low interest rates, gold tends to perform well. Other than that, silver spot was down by 0.2% to $38.05 an ounce. Platinum fell by 1.8% to $1375.88, and palladium rose 0.5%, reaching $1,226.25. (Reporting and editing by Ros Russell in Bengaluru, Sherin Elizabeth Vaghese from Bengaluru)
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Panel of OPEC+ stresses the need to comply with all output limits
A panel of OPEC+ members on Monday emphasized the importance of full compliance with oil production agreements, in advance of Sunday's separate meeting of eight OPEC+ member countries to decide whether or not to increase oil output for September. Online, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which is composed of top energy ministers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, as well as their allies, led by Russia convened for a brief discussion. The JMMC is a two-monthly meeting that has the authority to call a full OPEC+ meeting to discuss market developments if necessary. In a press release issued after the meeting, OPEC stated that "the committee reiterated the importance of achieving complete conformity and compensating", Compensation cuts are the ones that certain countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan are asked to implement to compensate for previous overproduction. The JMMC requested that countries who are not fully compliant submit updated compensation plans before August 18. In a late Friday post on X, OPEC said that the committee did not have decision-making power over production levels and its role was limited to "monitoring conformity with production adjustment and reviewing overall market condition". OPEC+ has cut production to support the oil market for many years. It reversed its course in order to regain the market share and when U.S. president Donald Trump asked OPEC to pump more oil to keep gasoline prices down. Since April, eight members have increased their output. The most recent decision is to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels a day in August. Three OPEC+ source said last week that the eight countries will hold a separate gathering on August 3. They are likely to agree on a further 548,000 bpd for September. By September, OPEC+ will have undone its latest production cut of 2.2 millions bpd and the United Arab Emirates will have delivered a quota increase of 300,000 bpd ahead of schedule. The oil prices are still being supported despite OPEC+'s increases, thanks to the summer demand. Some members have also not increased production as much in line with the headline quota increases. Brent crude traded above $70 per barrel on Monday. Reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar and Olesya Astakhova. Alex Lawler. Mark Potter edited the report.
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Medvedev accuses the EU-US of being 'anti-Russian" over possible fallouts for Russian oil
Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president, said that the framework agreement between the European Union (EU) and the United States is "anti-Russian", comparing it to a ban de facto on the purchase of Russian oil and natural gas. On Sunday, the U.S. and the EU reached a deal that imposes a 15% tariff on the majority of EU goods. Ursula von der Leyen said, in a subsequent statement, that the agreement will help the EU phase out Russian fossils fuels and replace them with American alternatives. The purchase of U.S. Energy Products will help to diversify Europe's supply sources and increase its energy security. Von der Leyen stated that we will purchase significant amounts of U.S. oil, LNG and nuclear fuels to replace Russian oil and gas. Russia has said repeatedly that U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas is more expensive than Russian LNG. The EU has been trying for years to reduce its Russian oil and gas purchases, despite the sweeping sanctions it has imposed on Moscow due to its conflict in Ukraine. Medvedev stated that Trump "wiped the floors" with the EU but that the agreement is not good for Russia as well. Medvedev wrote in Telegram that the "deal" is anti-Russian and prohibits the purchase of Russian oil and gas. He said that the impact on Europe and its people would be negative, as they will have to pay more money for their energy. Medvedev stated that "one can only feel sympathy for ordinary Europeans." (Reporting and editing by Andrew Osborn)
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Ghana cancels $1.2 billion bauxite deal, eyes global partnership, sources say
Three sources with direct knowledge said that Ghana had cancelled a $1.2billion bauxite leasing agreement with Rocksure International and was instead seeking a partnership with a large overseas company in order to tap into one of West Africa’s richest deposits. Two sources indicated that potential partners could be Dubai-based Emirates Global Aluminium or a Chinese company. Ghana has made a strategic shift by terminating the agreement. The country holds 900 million tons of bauxite - the 7th largest in terms of global reserves - but has struggled with attracting sustained investment into mining and refinery infrastructure. Rocksure's lease covers the Nyinahin Hills, central Ghana. These hills are home to approximately 376 million tonnes of bauxite - the raw material for aluminium. The Asante Bauxite Company Joint Venture was based on a joint-venture between Rocksure, the state-owned Ghana Integrated Aluminium Development Corporation and GIADEC to build a mining and alumina refining facility. Rocksure held 70% of the JV. GIADEC owned 20%, and the government 10%. A 2019 Supreme Court decision declared the lease null and void because it was never ratified in parliament. One source said that, "by the Exton Cubic decision, without ratification you have no lease", adding that the Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources informed Rocksure. GIADEC refused to comment citing ongoing discussions. The Lands Ministry did not reply to comments. Rocksure declined to comment as well. One source said that the company had not received a formal notification of termination. Only that GIADEC would be leaving the JV. Ghana, Africa's largest gold producer, is lagging behind other regional countries like Guinea in terms of bauxite output. Guinea is a global leader in bauxite. The GIADEC source stated that GIADEC is actively courting new investors including EGA, and several Chinese companies. EGA lost its mining licence in Guinea due to delays in building a refining plant. In June, it signed a Memorandum of Understanding with GIADEC to explore opportunities in Ghana. In an email reply to questions, the company said: "EGA expressed interest in developing bauxite in Ghana. It is currently assessing technical and commercial parameters for such a collaboration." EGA stated that no binding agreements had been signed and did not provide investment figures, resource estimations or timelines. According to a third source, EGA considered investing in Ghana as early as 2022. However, it backed out of the deal because they didn't want their Guinea license to be jeopardized. The source stated that they didn't wish for Guinea to think that their focus was shifting to Ghana. EGA stated that "Sourcing Bauxite from Ghana aligns our objective to increase aluminium production by diversified our supply base." GIADEC aims at beginning extraction and offtake from the Block B area - also known as Block B – in the first quarter next year. According to the first source, although no agreements have been signed, discussions with potential partners have advanced. The first source stated, "We are looking at all the options to determine which serves the national interest." Ghana Chamber of Mines predicts that national bauxite production will increase to 2 million tonnes in 2025 from a record-breaking 1.7 million tons last year. (Reporting and editing by Maxwell Akalaare Adombila, Veronica Brown and Susan Fenton).
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Wall Street sets records as euro falls after US-EU trade agreement
Investors welcomed a new trade agreement between the U.S.A. and European Union cautiously, as the markets began a week of intense activity. The STOXX 600 reached a four-month peak with a 0.5% increase, while the euro fell 0.7% against the US dollar. This was the biggest blow to the 10% rally this year since May. The EU will spend $600 billion in U.S. investment and impose a 15 percent import tariff on the majority of EU goods. It will also open up important parts to its market. Chris Turner, an ING analyst, said: "The deal is much better than the 30%-50% tariff rate that was threatened in the last few months. However, it is likely to be as bad as universal tariff rates discussed late last year." The U.S./EU agreement averts a potentially damaging standoff between two blocs that account for almost a quarter of global trade. However, a number European capitals have complained about its lopsidedness in favor of Washington. There are still major deals to be finalised before Trump's deadline of August 1. The U.S.-China talks in Stockholm, Sweden on Monday should lead to an extension of the 90-day trade truce between the two countries. Meanwhile, the deal struck by Europe follows the one with Japan last weekend. MUFG FX Strategist Derek Halpenny stated that the EU deal is ultimately "good from a perspective of financial markets as it further reduces uncertainty ahead of the 1st August which now looks like an insignificant day". Apolline Menut, fund manager Carmignac, called it a victory for the U.S. given the forced purchase of U.S. military and energy equipment and the zero tariff retaliation from Europe. She said: "This isn’t a breakthrough in trade - it’s damage control to the benefit of diplomatic pragmatism." "The economic costs may be painful, but the strategic calculus remains brutally rational." The export-heavy DAX in Germany and the CAC 40 in France had both risen initially, but had slid back into negative territory early afternoon trading. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq's futures indicated that Wall Street would resume with new record highs. As Asian markets reopened the euro also gained strength, but fell further into the red when the dollar pushed higher across the board. The yields on government bonds in the Eurozone, which is a proxy of borrowing costs, have also been pushed down. The benchmark yield for the euro zone, Germany's 10-year bond, fell 0.5 basis points to 2.71%. It had risen more than 10 basis point at the end last week, when the European Central Bank tempered talk of rate cuts imminent. FED, BOJ AWAIT The S&P 500 futures, Nasdaq, and Dow were all between flat and 0.3% up as the EU deal signed at Donald Trump's golf club in Scotland over the weekend added to the ones that were struck in Asia with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines last week. Morgan Stanley analysts said that the likelihood of the S&P reaching its "bull case" by mid-next year of 7,200 points had increased, but was still "not without risk" due to possible tariff-driven inflation and high U.S. long-term bond yields. Overnight, MSCI’s broadest regional share index ended 0.3% lower, while Japan's Nikkei fell more than 1% from its one-year-high last week. The Australian dollar was trading at $0.657 and hovered around its near eight-month high. Traders also await interest rate decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan. They are also looking forward to monthly U.S. payrolls and earnings of megacap companies Apple, Microsoft and Amazon. Investors will need to pay attention to the comments of officials to determine the future interest rate path. The BOJ can now raise rates this year because of the trade agreement with Japan. The Fed will likely be cautious about any further rate cuts, as they are awaiting more data on the impact of tariffs and inflation to make a decision. Trump has repeatedly criticized Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's refusal to cut rates. Two Trump-appointed Fed Board members have outlined reasons to support a rate reduction this month. Oil prices have risen in commodities after the U.S. EU trade agreement. Brent crude futures as well as U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude both rose 0.5%. On reduced demand for traditional safe-havens, gold prices fell 0.1% to $3.334 an ounce. This is their lowest level in almost two weeks.
European stocks gain, euro dips after US-EU strike trade deal
The euro dropped in the early hours of trading on Monday, as investors welcomed a trade deal between the United States an the European Union.
The STOXX 600 index opened 0.7% higher, and the euro was 0.3% lower against the dollar. This is the beginning of what appears to be an important week for President Donald Trump's trade war with the rest of the world.
The EU will spend $600 billion in U.S. investment and impose a 15 percent import tariff on the majority of EU goods. It will also open up important parts to its market.
Chris Turner, an ING analyst, said: "The deal is much better than the 30%-50% tariff rate that was threatened in the last few months. However, it is likely to be as bad as universal tariff rates discussed late last year."
The U.S./EU agreement averts a potentially damaging standoff between two blocs that account for almost a quarter of global trade. However, a number European capitals have complained about its lopsidedness in favor of Washington.
There are still major deals to be finalised before Trump's deadline of August 1. The U.S.-China talks in Stockholm, Sweden on Monday will likely extend the 90-day trade truce. Meanwhile, the deal struck by Europe and Japan last week is expected to be followed closely by the one reached between Europe and the U.S.
MUFG FX Strategist Derek Halpenny stated that the EU deal is ultimately "good news for financial markets as it further reduces uncertainty ahead of the 1st August which now looks like an insignificant day."
Prashant Nnewnaha, TD Securities, called it "a huge win for the U.S." due to the forced purchase of U.S. military and energy equipment as well as "zero tariff retaliation" by Europe.
After the first hour, Germany's exporter heavy DAX, France’s CAC40, Italy’s FTSE MIB, and Spain's IBEX all rose between 0.4% to 0.8%. Meanwhile, S&P500 and Nasdaq Futures point towards new Wall Street record highs when trading resumes.
As the dollar grew across the board, the euro began to fall.
The yields on government bonds in the Eurozone, which is a proxy for borrowing cost, have also been pushed down.
The benchmark yield for the euro zone, Germany's 10-year bond, fell 0.5 basis points to 2.71%. It had risen more than 10 basis point at the end last week, when the European Central Bank tempered talk of impending rate cuts.
FED, BOJ AWAIT
Overnight, MSCI’s broadest regional share index ended 0.3% lower. Japan’s Nikkei fell more than 1% from its one-year high set last week.
The Australian dollar was trading at $0.657 and hovered around its near eight-month high.
The week ahead is packed with action as traders await the interest rate decisions of both the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank and Bank of Japan. They also wait for monthly U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, and earnings from megacap companies Apple and Microsoft.
Investors will need to pay attention to the comments of officials to determine the future interest rate path. The BOJ can now raise rates this year because of the trade agreement with Japan.
The Fed will likely be cautious about any further rate cuts, as they are awaiting more data on the impact of tariffs and inflation to make a decision.
Trump has repeatedly criticized Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's refusal to cut rates. Two Trump-appointed members of the Fed Board have outlined reasons to support a rate reduction this month.
Oil prices have risen in commodities after the U.S. EU trade agreement. Brent crude futures as well as U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose both by 0.5%.
Gold prices fell 0.1% to $3334 per ounce, their lowest level in two weeks due to a reduced appetite for safe-havens.
(source: Reuters)