Latest News

Stocks extend record run despite Fed pressures as dollar falls to 3-year low

The dollar fell to its lowest level in three years, while the world stock market reached its second record high within three days after a report that Donald Trump planned to select the next Federal Reserve Chief early fueled fresh bets about U.S. interest rate cuts.

Dollar selling continued as U.S. trade picked up after Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. President - who had been urging Fed to reduce rates faster – was toying with idea of choosing Chair Jerome Powell’s successor in the next few month before his formal departure in May.

The greenback was down by nearly 0.5% Thursday, and over 10% for the entire year. If the greenback continues to fall in the coming days, it will be the biggest half-year drop since the beginning of the free-floating currency era in the early 1970s.

Wall Street's major markets opened modestly up, keeping MSCI's world stock benchmark at a record high for the year.

The euro was at its highest level since 2021, and Washington is preparing to hold trade tariff negotiations next week ahead of the July 9 global deadline set by Trump.

Michael Metcalfe, State Street's chief economist, said: "The dollar has struggled to appreciate in virtually any market regime."

He added that the economy was in a "structural decline" and cited State Street data showing investors are now more negative than ever about the dollar, or "underweight", in banking-speak. This is since the COVID Pandemic.

Euro traders were also encouraged by the NATO summit on Wednesday, where members agreed to spend 5% of their output on defense - 3.5% for troops and weapons, and 1.5% for looser defence-related measures.

The U.S. president Trump also announced plans for talks with Iran to be held next week in order to get Tehran to commit to curtailing their nuclear ambitions.

SHADOW MOVEMENTS

Overnight, Nikkei shares in Tokyo rose 1.65%, reaching their highest level since last January. MSCI's Asia-Pacific index outside Japan also finished marginally higher.

In the currency markets, the Swiss Franc strengthened to a decade high while the Japanese yen grew again and passed 144 per US dollar.

Trump has also intensified his criticisms of the Fed for not acting quickly enough.

He has repeatedly attacked Fed chief Powell. His idea to name a successor before Powell leaves his office could create a cloud over Powell's head and undermine him.

Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. He said: "It's a certainty that Trump's choice to replace Powell will be someone who sits on the dovish side of the political spectrum and will support Trump’s agenda of lowering rates."

"The problem with this (is) that it will bring back questions raised earlier in the year about the Fed's independent, which, we saw, undermined confidence in the Fed, and the USD."

After its decline this year, the dollar index, which compares the U.S. currency to six other currencies, is now at its lowest point since March 2022.

The markets are also watching as Trump's deadline of July 9 for a trade deal to be reached approaches. If not, sharply higher import tariffs will take effect.

The CME FedWatch tool shows that traders now price in nearly 25% of the chance that the Fed will cut rates at its meeting on the last day of July, up from 12.5% the previous week.

The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury, which moves typically in line with expectations of interest rates, fell by 1.5 basis points to 3.74%. This was its lowest level for seven weeks. Germany's benchmark, which is used for Europe as well, was about the same with 1.83%.

Oil prices are back on the upswing after a sharp drop following the Trump-brokered truce between Middle East rivals Israel and Iran early this week.

Brent crude futures increased 0.6% to $68 a barrel, U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI), gained 1% to $60.60, while gold fell to $3,323 per ounce.

(source: Reuters)