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Middle East risk premium fading as oil falls on Gaza plan
Early Thursday, oil prices dropped after Israel and Hamas reached an agreement on the first phase of the plan to end the Gaza war. This weighed on the war risk premium for oil and pushed investors to sell. Brent crude futures fell 51 cents or 0.77% to $65.74 per barrel at 0002 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 55 cents or 0.88% to $62. U.S. president Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas reached a long sought-after deal on a Gaza ceasefire, including the release of hostages. The plan was to end the war that has raged in the Palestinian enclave for two years. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, said that he will convene the Israeli government on Thursday in order to approve the ceasefire accord. Investors have been weighing the risk of a regional war escalating into a global conflict that could affect oil supplies. Investors viewed the stalled progress in a Ukraine peace agreement as maintaining sanctions against Russia. The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that the total weekly U.S. supply of petroleum products, which is a proxy for U.S. consumption of oil, increased last week to 21,990 million barrels a day, the highest since December 2022. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing in Houston, Georgina McCartney from Houston)
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Sources say that the Indian government is seeking a resolution to the dispute with Tata Charity arm.
Sources told Reuters that two senior Indian ministers intervened in a rare intervention to urge the charity arm of Tata Group to resolve internal boardroom conflicts to ensure stability for the $180 billion business empire they control. Sources say that the discord within Tata Trusts a year after Ratan Tata's death has sparked fears of a repeat in the bitter public spat of 2016 between the charity and Tata Sons which tarnished India's most famous group. Tata Trusts holds a 66% stake of Tata Sons and has the power to make major strategic decisions. Tata Sons is responsible for 30 companies, including consumer goods, autos, and airlines. These include Jaguar Land Rover and Tata Consultancy Services, Tata Motors, and Air India. Two industry sources said that the disagreements within Tata Trusts over the past few weeks have been about which trustees would sit on the Tata Sons Board, the overall business direction of the group, and how to handle the planned exit by minority shareholder Shapoorji Palalonji. TATAS IS ASKED TO RESOLVE ISSUE BY THE INDIAN GOVERNMENT Two Indian ministers met on Tuesday with N. Chandrasekaran, the chair of Tata Sons and Noel Tata, the head of Tata Trusts in New Delhi to discuss and resolve the dispute. This was according to a government official and a source from the industry. Sources said that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman attended the rare direct intervention of the government. Indian media reported that the other senior official was Minister of Home Affairs Amit A Shah. The official who was present at the Tuesday discussions said, "The government wants to restore stability and resolve issues." Sources declined to name themselves as the matter was confidential. Tata Trusts & Tata Sons has not publicly commented on this matter which was widely reported in Indian Media. Both companies did not respond to requests for comment. India's Finance Ministry and Home Affairs Ministry did not respond to comments. Tata Trusts disagreed with Cyrus Mistry, the Tata Sons chairman, and legal battles ensued. Mistry passed away in 2022, but Shapoorji Pallonji still holds an 18% stake of Tata Sons. Tata Trusts trustees are divided over how Shapoorji Pallonji's plan to split with the Tatas, which has been delayed for years, will be implemented and what effect it will have on the conglomerate. Shapoorji pallonji has not responded to our request for a comment. Aditya K. Kalra, Aftab A. Ahmed, Ira Duggal Aditi S. Shah, Khushi M. Malhotra and Joe Bavier contributed to the reporting.
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Liontown Resources changes loan and supply agreements with Ford Motor; shares are advanced
Liontown Resources announced on Thursday that it had amended its loan agreements and spodumene supplies with Ford Motor. The aim was to increase near-term liquidity, and gain greater flexibility in the marketing of outputs as production at its Kathleen Valley Lithium project in Western Australia ramps up. Liontown stated that the principal and interest due Ford for fiscal 2026 will be deferred 12 months. All other loan conditions remain unchanged. The S&P/ASX 200 index, which was up 0.3% at 2318 GMT, lagged behind the battery minerals producer, whose shares rose 3.4% to A$1.065. This is the highest share price since mid-June, 2024. Ford will receive 256 250 dry metric tons of spodumene from the company starting in 2027. The company said that no deliveries would be made to Ford during 2027 or 2028. Ford can opt to cancel its "take-or-pay" commitments on the remaining volumes, according to Liontown. Liontown said that the amendments will allow it to sell more products on the spot market, or enter into new strategic partnerships. The revised deal comes after Perth-based Liontown announced it would revise the pricing terms in their long-term agreement with Tesla as the miner wanted a broader exposure to benchmarks for lithium prices. (Reporting and editing by Alan Barona in Bengaluru, with Roshan Thomas reporting from Bengaluru)
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Brazilian Rare Earths sells feedstock to Carester
Brazilian Rare Earths, a company listed in Australia, announced on Thursday it had signed agreements with Carester SAS to supply heavy rare earths for an initial period of 10 years. Carester will provide engineering and technical support for the separation plant that Brazilian Rare Earths plans to build at the Camacari Petrochemical Complex in Bahia, Brazil. Over a ten-year period, the processor will purchase a maximum 150 tonnes of dysprosium or terbium per year from Brazilian Rare Earths. The partnership is designed to address the shortage of the critical minerals dysprosium (as well as terbium), which are essential to the production of permanent magnets with high performance. It comes at a moment when the west wants to reduce its dependence on China's dominant supply chain. Carester is, for example, building a rare-earth separation and recycling facility that has received over 216 millions euros ($251.25million) in funding from the French Government and Japanese entities. Carester's technical expertise and downstream capabilities will allow us to quickly convert our rare earths of ultra-high quality into the essential products that customers demand. said Bernardo da Veiga, CEO of Brazilian Rare Earths. It is becoming more urgent to diversify the supply chain, as China continues to control a large portion of critical minerals that are vital for industries such as electric vehicles, robotics, and national defense. Reporting by Nichiket in Bengaluru, editing by Shailesh Kumar.
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Argentine Treasury burns dollars to defend the peso, as US aid talks loom
The Argentine Treasury is quickly depleting its dollars reserves to defend the Peso. This has strained financial markets Wednesday, as funds from an agricultural exporters' special agreement are running low just weeks before midterm election. According to traders, the Treasury (under the Economy Ministry) has sold about $2 billion over the past few sessions in order to stabilize the peso. The ministry doesn't report publicly its market activities. The Treasury's holdings of hard currency have been rapidly depleted by the interventions. Portfolio Personal Inversiones reported that dollar deposits at the central banks have fallen from $1.44 billion on Friday to only $680 million. This means the intervention capacity is limited to "a few days" at this pace. According to Wise Capital, the Treasury has sold over three quarters of the hard currencies it raised through the export scheme. The government announced that it would be implementing a new plan for the end of last month. Export taxes suspended On grains and their products. In just a few short days, traders had committed to sell $7 billion of crops to China, mostly soybeans. The deal brought in a lot of cash, but it has also fueled tensions between Washington and Beijing, since U.S. Farmers are locked out of the Chinese Market due to a tariff dispute. Pressure is increasing ahead of Argentina’s legislative elections, which will take place on October 26. The libertarian president Javier Milei’s administration will be put to the test. Luis Caputo, the Economy Minister in Washington, is negotiating with a potential agreement to calm the markets. Currency swap of $20 billion deal. Deal. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the IMF The fund works closely with the U.S.A., World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank in order to develop an assistance package for Argentina. The wholesale peso remained at 1,430 dollars per peso on Wednesday. However, the parallel rate for sending money abroad rose to 1,556 dollars per greenback. This increased the gap in exchange rates to almost 9%. Most economists agree that the current strategy of intervention is only a temporary solution until the elections. After the elections, a new and more liberal foreign exchange regime is expected, but its implementation will depend on the results of those elections and whether or not they are backed financially by the United States. On asset markets, the average price of sovereign bonds fell by 1%. The S&P Merval index, on the other hand, reversed its early losses and closed up 1.42 percent. Aluar shares jumped by 2.93% following the announcement of the government. Temporarily suspended Tariffs on metal exports. Walter Bianchi, Buenos Aires. Additional reporting by Rodrigo Campos, New York. Editing by Margueritachoy and David Gregorio.
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The EU Parliament is planning to further reduce the sustainability law
According to lawmakers and officials, the majority of the European Parliament's member groups reached an agreement late Wednesday night to further cut the EU's Corporate Sustainability Law. Last year, the European Union adopted the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), which requires companies to address human rights and environment issues in their supply chains or face fines up to 5% of their global turnover. After a backlash from Germany, France, the United States, Qatar and Exxon Mobil, Brussels is now working to simplify the rules. Jorgen Warborn is the EPP member leading the negotiations. He said that a key change would be to limit the application of the rules to companies with at least 5,000 employees and a turnover of 1.5 billion euros ($1.74 trillion). CSDDD currently covers companies with 1,000 employees or more and above 450 millions euros in turnover. Warborn stated, "I am focused on ensuring that we bring Europe back to growth so that we can create more jobs and long-term prosperity." Brussels has said that changes are necessary to prevent companies from being overburdened with reporting requirements. The law is due to come into effect in 2027. However, campaigners and companies have warned that the EU could undermine corporate accountability. Initially, the socialist lawmakers were against the plan, but they agreed on Wednesday after the EPP said it would strike a deal instead with far-right legislators and weaken law even further. A spokesperson for the Socialists & Democrats said, "This compromise isn't our preferred option, but the alternative would have been a worse EPP deal with the extreme right." In response, Dutch Socialist legislator Lara Wolters announced that she had resigned from her position as the group's chief negotiator. Un official of the liberal Renew party confirmed that it also supported the agreement. The three groups of legislators hold the majority of seats at the EU Parliament. The EU Parliament will vote later this month on the agreement, before the EU negotiates the final changes to law. $1 = 0.8601 Euros (Reporting and editing by Kate Abnett)
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Dolly Parton: 'I'm not dead yet', after her sister raised alarm
Dolly Parton reassured fans on Wednesday about her health after her sister's comments fueled concerns that the Grammy-winning country singer was near death. Parton, aged 79, captioned an Instagram video with "I ain’t dead yet." Do I look sick to You? The "9 to 5" singer smiled as she said, "I'm working really hard here." She was on a set filming commercials at the Grand Ole Opry. She wore a black top and black fringed pants with a red blouse. Parton announced recently that she would be postponing her Las Vegas shows due to unspecified health concerns. Freida, Parton's sister, posted on social media this week that she had "prayed all night" for the singer. Later, she said that "she didn't mean for anyone to be scared or sound so serious." Parton admitted in the video that she neglected her health while her husband Carl Dean was ill and died, as Parton explained. She said she was working with doctors on some issues. "I want to let you know that I am OK." She said that she had some minor problems, but nothing major, and added, "I am not dying." Parton, a Grammy Award-winning singer, has appeared in films such as "Steel Magnolias," "The Best Little Whorehouse in Texas," and others. In November, she will receive an honorary Oscar.
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Sport Positive Awards for Real Betis, FIS and Liverpool
Sport Positive Awards were announced at a two-day summit on sports sustainability. The winners included Premier League champions Liverpool, and Real Betis of Spain. Real Betis won the Best Campaign Award for its project Sin Azul No Hay Verde, which is a campaign that says "Without Blue There Is No Green". The winners of 12 categories have been announced at the Sport Positive Summit, a two-day event in London in collaboration with United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the International Olympic Committee. Claire Poole, founder of Sport Positive, said: "These winners are a great example of what is possible when sport becomes a force for positive change." As climate impacts increase, their bold actions, innovation, leadership, and are not only protecting sport's future, but also delivering a positive outcome for communities and planet. Over 500 leaders of the sport industry from the biggest events, franchises and NGOs in the world gathered for a discussion on how to make the industry more sustainable and environmentally-friendly. Climate change is affecting sport more and more. This year's FIFA Club World Cup was impacted by intense heat and thunderstorms in the United States, and the Wimbledon Tennis Championships experienced their hottest opening day ever. The warming climate is also threatening to close traditional Alpine ski resorts, while Thomas Bach, former IOC President, said that only 10 countries may be able to host a Winter Olympics in 2040. The International Ski and Snowboard Federation, in partnership with Green Producers Club developed a CO2 calculator designed to assist snow sports stakeholders measure and manage greenhouse gas emissions. This tool won the category award for Inspired Innovation at this year's Sport Positive. Susanna Siff, Director of Sustainability at FIS, stated that the tool is a living one, constantly evolving and improving based on feedback from users. "We didn't simply win the award, but we also developed a tool that can be adapted to better serve our community and reduce carbon emissions." Red Way, Liverpool's ESG (environmental, social and governance) strategy launched in 2021 has helped to increase match-day recycle from 20% up to 90% and reduce carbon emissions by 15 percent. Real Betis’s Sin Azul No Hay Verde, part of LaLiga’s Forever Green Initiative, has raised public awareness of an invasive Asian alga along the Andalusian coastline -- a direct result of climate change. The campaign was centered around the release a special edition football shirt that incorporates textile fibres from algae. Sport Positive said that Real Betis had demonstrated the power of sport to promote environmental responsibility by integrating sustainability in the areas of brand identity, merchandising and community engagement. The other Sport Positive award recipients included Cricket for Climate (a collaborative movement founded and led by Australian Test Captain Pat Cummins); Kicking for Nature (a Brazilian non profit Taekwondo program promoting environmental responsibility); and Logan Waddle who received the Trailblazer Award for his sustainability initiatives in the Indianapolis Motor Speedway as well as across the INDYCAR series of the United States. The Biodiversity Award went to the Ulster GAA Sporting Nature Project, which helped over 30 community clubs create wildlife habitat in Northern Ireland. This included planting trees and wildflower meadows.
Oil, tariffs and war tear apart the central bank's roadmap
Investors are becoming more uneasy about the uncertain economic environment. The shock rate reduction in Norway on Thursday highlighted how U.S. Tariffs, Middle East conflict, and a shaky Dollar make global monetary policies and inflation harder to predict.
Norway's crown fell by about 1% in relation to the dollar and euro, indicating how unexpected this move was. Switzerland's central bank, which warned of a cloudy outlook for the global economy, cut its borrowing costs on Thursday to 0%, surprising some traders who expected a return to negative interest rates.
A day earlier, the U.S. Federal Reserve had kept interest rates at current levels and Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve Board said that "nobody" was confident about the future rate path.
Markets must contend with a new headwind: the uncertainty of monetary policy. This is in addition to geopolitical risks and trade concerns.
A gauge of volatility expected in European equities reached a two-month peak as stocks fell across the region and government bonds - usually safe havens for geopolitical risks - were sold off.
"We are in a period of significant policy and macro-uncertainty," said BlueBay Chief Investment Officer at RBC Global Asset Management, Mark Dowding.
He added that he would not be making active market wagers on the investment portfolios of his group because he could not see a clear interest rate trend.
Investors said that volatility was on the rise because geopolitical factors such as a volatile dollar and fluctuating oil prices made it difficult for central banks to give investors and markets a clear roadmap.
T.S. Davide Oneglia, director of European and Global Macro at Lombard.
BROKEN MODELS
The Fed is not the only central bank that has cut rates. It also faces inflationary threats from President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
The dollar, which is the backbone of global trade, commodity values and asset valuations has become weaker and volatile due to trade war stress, and anxiety about government debt.
Nick Rees, Monex Europe's head of Macro Research and a specialist in macroeconomics, said: "This is a fundamental change that has occurred on the global markets. Everyone is trying to evaluate it."
All of the standard economic rules that we use to forecast are totally broken right now.
The dollar has fallen almost 9% this year against other major currencies, but it has also risen since the war between Israel and Iran broke out.
Francois Villeroy de Galhau, a policymaker at the European Central Bank, said that if oil prices continue to fluctuate for a long time, then it may be necessary to adjust its rate-cutting plans.
Analysts said that the new status quo of markets could be a period of central bank surprises, which would create rapid shifts to market narratives, asset pricing, and volatility trends.
Oneglia stated that "we're entering a new cycle where variables are more volatile because events and human factors play a major role, and not just monetary policy, which is easily predictable."
Kit Juckes, Societe Generale’s head of FX Strategy, said that Norway's surprise cut was due to the fact that the Norwegian crown had been a “runaway top currency” during the trade war era.
The Swiss franc is soaring, as investors search for alternative wealth stores that do not use U.S. dollar. This has led to a drop in import costs and pushed the economy towards deflation.
The franc rose on Thursday against the dollar, as traders viewed the SNB's cuts as being too small to prevent deflation.
Ninety One's multi-assets head John Stopford stated that the risk of global stock prices increasing was a concern and that options that offer protection against incoming volatility appeared to be fairly inexpensive.
He bought bonds in countries where rates and inflation could drop materially. For example, New Zealand. But he was against longer-dated U.S. Treasuries, and German Bunds, where the economic uncertainty is higher, and borrowing by government will likely increase.
After investors relaxed over tariffs, global stocks are still almost 20% higher than their April lows.
Stopford stated that there is more to be concerned about in the near term.
Stopford continued, "The stock exchange feels like a thatched home in a hot land with a high fire risk. People aren't charging a lot to insure this house."
(source: Reuters)