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Sudanese RSF forces killed almost 300 in North Kordofan according to activists
Sudanese activists reported on Monday that the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces killed nearly 300 people during attacks that began in North Kordofan State on Saturday. RSF is fighting against the Sudanese Army in this area. It's one of the main frontlines in a civil conflict that has been raging since April 2023. The army has gained control over the east and center of the country while the RSF works to consolidate control in the western regions including North Kordofan. Emergency Lawyers, a human rights organization, said in a Monday statement that the RSF attacked several villages around Bara on Saturday. Bara is under the control of the paramilitary. More than 200 people have been killed in Shag Alnom village by arson and gunshots. They said that looting raids in other villages resulted in the deaths of 38 civilians. Dozens more were reported as missing. The group claimed that the RSF had attacked Hilat Hamid the next day and killed 46 people including children, pregnant women, and other vulnerable individuals. According to the United Nations, more than 3,400 people have been forced to flee. Emergency Lawyers, blaming the RSF leadership, said: "It is clear that these villages targeted were empty of military objectives. This makes clear the criminality of these crimes committed in total disregard for international humanitarian law." Human rights groups and the United States have accused RSF of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity. The RSF has carried out violent raids on territory that it controls across the country. The RSF leadership has said that it will bring to justice those who are found guilty of such crimes. Sudan's civil conflict has caused the largest humanitarian crisis in the world, causing more than half of the population to go hungry and spreading diseases like cholera throughout the country. The humanitarian response has been stretched by a global cut in aid. (Reporting and editing by Sharon Singleton, Sandra Maler and Nafisa eltahir)
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Draft shows EU wants to cap farming subsidies in budget overhaul
Brussels will propose capping the EU subsidy a single farm can receive every year in an effort to redistribute massive farming subsidies to smaller businesses. A draft European Commission proposal, seen by, revealed this. The document will be part of the Commission’s proposal for the next budget of the European Union, which is due to appear on Wednesday. The EU's massive Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which provides farming subsidies, is worth approximately 387 billion euro ($451 billion) today. This represents a third the entire budget of the EU for 2021-2027. According to the draft, the Commission's proposal would try to redistribute subsidies to smaller farms by capping the amount of income-based support that they can receive at 100,000 euros per annum. The amount of money paid per hectare would be gradually reduced for those who receive the most. The draft stated that, for example, if a farmer receives area-based income assistance above 20,000 Euros per year, their payments will be reduced by 25%. Payments above 50,000 Euros per year will be cut in half, and payments over 75,000 euro by 75%. It is not the first attempt by Brussels to cap subsidies and limit payments to large landowners or agroindustrial companies. In the previous CAP approximately 80% of payments were made to only 20% of beneficiaries. Previous proposals were rejected by EU countries concerned about their agricultural industries. The new budget for the period 2028-2034 must be approved by the EU countries as well as the European Parliament. A spokesperson for the Commission did not respond immediately to a comment request on the draft. It could be changed before publication. The draft would establish EU-wide, overarching green targets, which farmers must achieve to qualify for subsidies. However, it would also oblige countries to set local, additional conditions. The draft stated that "the new CAP will be a simplified and more targeted Union Common Policy, with greater flexibility for farmers, and a move from requirements to incentives." The draft didn't confirm the size of a new CAP. The core of the new CAP would remain direct income support to farmers. This would be "ring-fenced", meaning that it could not be used for anything else. The proposal would combine the CAP's two-pillar structure to one fund, a move that is opposed by influential European farmers' group COPA-COGECA. ($1 = 0,8574 euros) Reporting by Kate Abnett Editing Tomaszjanowski
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US Judge delays the transfer of Argentina's 51% YPF stake in order to allow an appeal
A U.S. Judge on Monday temporarily halted the enforcement of her order requiring Argentina's 51% stake in the oil and gas company YPF as partial satisfaction of a $16.1 Billion court judgment. The U.S. District judge Loretta Preska, while criticizing Argentina's actions and extending the deadline for the completion of the turn-over by three days until July 17, has pushed back Monday's deadline. She stated that the delay was only to allow Argentina to file a complaint with the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals of Manhattan. Argentina filed an Emergency appeal On July 10, the court heard a case. Preska refused to extend the stay. She stated that Argentina "continues its delay and circumvention of its obligations" in relation to the $16.1 billion judgement, citing legislation to prevent the YPF turn over. The Manhattan-based Manhattan judge wrote: "The Republic has abused court accommodations and will not receive additional ones." Requests for comment from an attorney and Argentina's representatives were not immediately responded to. The three-day extension is a temporary relief to the cash-strapped nation, which warned that its economy would be unstable if forced to sell the YPF stake. Argentine president Javier Milei is trying to boost foreign currency reserves, rein in inflation and deal with a heavy debt burden. The dispute arose after Argentina decided in 2012 to take the YPF stake away from Spain's Repsol, without making a bid to minority shareholders Petersen Energia Inversora or Eton Park Capital Management. Burford Capital is representing these shareholders. Burford Capital has stated that it expects to receive between 35% and 73% respectively of Petersen and Eton Park’s damages. Burford's U.S. lawyer and Burford did not respond immediately to requests for comments on the Monday order. Preska has ordered Argentina to pay $1.71 billion and $14.39 billion in September 2023 to Petersen. Argentina appeals this judgment. The U.S. Foreign Sovereign immunity Act protects the YPF shares from being sold. In an emergency appeal, Argentina stated that a YPF turn-over would irreparably damage its sovereignty, violate the international law, and expand U.S. court's power in a wrong way. It said that it would also be unfair to give its controlling stake in country's biggest energy company up now because it would probably be irrevocable, even if they won the case. Burford claimed that Argentina's years of evasion, combined with a commercial immunity exception, was the reason for YPF's turnover. (Reporting and editing by William Mallard, Richard Chang, and Jonathan Stempel from New York)
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Russian rouble, stock market gain after Trump's statement on Russia
The Russian rouble recovered its losses against the dollar, and climbed against China's Yuan after U.S. president Donald Trump warned that he would impose a "very serious tariff" on Russia in 50 days if a deal was not reached on settling pacifically. According to LSEG's data based upon over-the counter quotes, as of 1605 GMT the rouble had fallen 0.2% at 78.10 against the dollar, after reaching 78.75 earlier in the day. The rouble has gained 45% against the US dollar since the beginning of the year, according to LSEG data based on over-the-counter quotes. Trump announced on Monday new weapons for Ukraine and threatened to hit Russian export buyers with sanctions. He expressed frustration at Russian President Vladimir Putin over the lack of progress made in ending the conflict in Ukraine. Artyom Nicholasev, an analyst from Invest Era, said that Trump's performance was below expectations. "He gave the Russian leadership 50 days to come up with an offer and extend the negotiations track. Trump is fond of delaying and extending such deadlines. The rouble gained 0.8% against the Chinese Yuan, which is the most commonly traded currency in Russia. It had fallen by more than 1% Friday. According to the Moscow Stock Exchange, after Trump's remarks, Russian stocks rose by 2.7%. (Reporting and editing by Richard Chang; Gleb Bryanski)
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Britain and Czech Republic will work together to develop small nuclear plants
The UK and Czech Republic announced on Monday that they will explore the possibilities for small modular reactors (SMRs). This partnership could lead to Rolls Royce SMR exporting up to six units into the east European country. Last month, Britain pledged 2,5 billion pounds for the construction of SMRs. It hopes that this will help to increase energy security while helping the country achieve its climate targets and create export opportunities. The SMRs are made in factories with small parts that can be transported by barges or trucks. They are assembled faster and cheaper than large nuclear plants. In a statement issued by the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, which also cited his Czech counterpart, UK Prime Minister Kierstarmer stated: "By working together with our Czech colleagues on small modular reactors we are supporting British engineering, strengthening the industrial base and putting the UK into a leading position for exporting the technologies of tomorrow." Rolls Royce won the contract to build Britain's SMRs last month. Great British Energy, Britain's state owned energy company, is expected to sign the contract and select a location for new plants later this year. Last year, Czech electricity producer CEZ announced that it would acquire a stake in Rolls Royce’s SMR business of around 20%. It also planned to install up to three gigawatts in the country. This is equivalent to six units. Each unit can power approximately one million homes. Starmer and Czech Premier Peter Fiala are hosting a roundtable discussion as part of Fiala's London visit, in order to promote closer links for trade and investment between the two nations. (Reporting by Susanna Twidale, Editing by Aidan Lewis).
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Earnings and tariffs are a focus for the market, as well as inflation data.
MSCI's global index of equity prices edged lower on Monday, while U.S. Treasury rates edged higher. The latest U.S. Tariff threats kept investors on their toes as they awaited inflation readings due later this week and the beginning of the earnings season. After Donald Trump threatened to impose a 30 percent tariff on imports of goods from the European Union, Mexico and Canada starting August 1, the euro briefly fell to its lowest level in almost three weeks. The dollar index remained stable. The threat of tariffs caused European shares to fall on Monday. The EU announced that it would suspend countermeasures against U.S. Tariffs until early August, and continue to push for a negotiated solution. However, Germany's Finance Minister called for a firm response if levies were implemented. This week the U.S. earnings period begins, and the banks are leading the way. According to LSEG, S&P profits are expected up 5.8% compared to the previous quarter. Now, it's all about the earnings season. They don't know what to expect. They want to remain optimistic. Robert Pavlik is a senior portfolio manager with Dakota Wealth, Fairfield, Connecticut. He said that earnings seasons are usually better than expected. However, he also noted that trading values were "a little expensive compared to the 5-year average". The money manager said that people are waiting to see what happens next, given the recent announcements of tariffs. At 10:54 am on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 53.36 points or 0.12% to 44,318.15, while the S&P500 fell 6.66 points or 0.11% to 6,253.09. The Nasdaq Composite increased 18.05 points or 0.09% to 20,603.58. The MSCI index of global stocks fell 0.12% or 1.07 points to 921.49, while the pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.26%. POWELL PRESSURE Trump has increased political pressure to ease interest rates more aggressively, despite the fact that U.S. Federal Chairman Jerome Powell had signalled patience on this issue. Kevin Hassett, the White House's economic adviser, warned Trump over the weekend that renovation costs at the Fed headquarters in Washington could be a reason to fire Powell. Trump said that Powell's resignation would be great. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes increased by 1 basis point, to 4.433% from 4.423% at the end of Friday. Meanwhile, the 30-year bond's yield rose by 2.2 basis points, to 4.9791%. The yield on the 2-year bond, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve fell by 1.8 basis points, to 3.896% from 3.914% at late Friday. Investors are waiting for the U.S. consumer prices data for June due Tuesday. They will also be watching for any upward pressure coming from tariffs. The data on producer prices and import prices, which are due this week, will provide a glimpse of the impact that tariffs may have on supply chain costs. Retail sales figures will also give a good indication of consumer health. The dollar index, which measures greenbacks against a basket including the yen, euro and yen, increased 0.09% at 97.98. The dollar rose 0.07% against the Japanese yen to 147.5. The Mexican peso fell 0.65% against the dollar to 18.767. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is confident that a deal can be reached by the deadline of August. Bitcoin reached the $120,000 mark for the first and last time. It was up by 1.48% to $120,891.36. Oil prices dropped on Monday, after reaching their highest level in the last three weeks. Investors were watching for further U.S. sanction against Russia and tariffs that could affect global supply. U.S. crude dropped 0.64% to $68.01 a barrel. Brent was down to $70.07 a barrel, 0.41% lower on the day. The gold price has stabilized following a three-week high on Monday, as attention was focused on U.S. data and trade negotiations. Silver prices have climbed to their highest level since September 2011, Spot gold dropped 0.41% to $3341.63 per ounce. U.S. Gold Futures increased 0.04% at $3,357.20 per ounce. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing; Sharon Singleton, Ali Williams, and Ali Williams.
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16 people are killed in attacks on Syrian security forces sent out to quell sectarian conflicts
The defence ministry reported that 16 members of Syria's Security Forces were killed in Sweida (a predominantly Druze city), after they were deployed to quell deadly inter-sectarian violence which local media reported resumed on Monday. After months of tensions, Sunday's clashes between Druze tribal fighters and Bedouin militiamen marked the first instance of sectarian violence in Sweida. The defence ministry issued a press release in which it said that "outlawed group", who were not identified, had attacked several of its units before dawn. It claimed that its forces had responded to the attack, and pursued groups who refused to cease hostilities or continued to target security personnel. In a previous statement, the Defence Ministry said that the fighting on Sunday had left 30 dead. This prompted Syria's Security Forces to send units into the city in order to restore calm and ensure safe passage for any civilians who wanted to leave. Sweida24, a local news outlet, reported that violent clashes erupted again on Monday. According to a second source, the Syrian army will try to establish state control in the entire province to stop any further violence. However, this may take several days. The latest bloodshed was a result of sectarian violence in Syria. Minority groups are increasingly afraid since islamist-led rebels ousted President Bashar Al-Assad and installed their own government. Sunni Muslim Arab groups that fought Assad in the war have agreed to dissolve and become part of the Defence Ministry. However, efforts to integrate armed groups from minorities - such as Druze and Kurds – are largely stalled. Israel's policy of not allowing Syria's army to move south of Damascus, and insisting that Sweida along with neighbouring provinces form a demilitarized area has complicated efforts in southern Syria. In a statement published by state media, Interior Minister Anas Khattab stated that "the absence of state institutions, particularly military and security institutions is the major cause of ongoing tensions in Sweida" and its surrounding areas. Witnesses said that the violence on Sunday was a result of a series of kidnappings including Friday's abduction of Druze merchants on the highway connecting Damascus and Sweida. Khalil Ashawi, Maya Gebeily and Nayera Abdallah in Beirut; Tala Ramadan and Aidan Lewis in Dubai contributed to the report.
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US Court of appeal delays the sale of Argentina's 51% YPF share
A U.S. Judge on Monday temporarily halted the enforcement of an order requiring Argentina's 51% stake in oil company YPF as partial satisfaction of a $16.1 Billion court judgment. The U.S. District Court Judge Loretta Preska's decision in Manhattan provides temporary relief for the cash-strapped South American nation, which warned that its economy would be unstable if it was forced to give up YPF's stake. Preska had originally scheduled a turnover for Monday but extended the deadline until July 17 in order to give time to appeal. Argentine president Javier Milei is trying to boost foreign currency reserves, rein in inflation and deal with a heavy debt burden. The dispute arose after Argentina decided in 2012 to take the YPF stake away from Spain's Repsol, without making a bid to minority shareholders Petersen Energia Inversora or Eton Park Capital Management. Burford Capital is representing these shareholders. Burford Capital has stated that it expects to receive between 35% and 73% respectively of Petersen and Eton Park’s damages. Preska has ordered Argentina to pay $1.71 billion and $14.39 billion in September 2023 to Petersen. Argentina is appealing the judgement. Preska, on June 30, ordered that the government turn over its YPF stake in 14 days. Burford said Argentina's years of evasion and a commercial exception justified a turn-over. Argentina said in a filing to the court on Thursday that "the stakes couldn't be higher." It warned that forcing a turn-around would irreparably damage its sovereignty, interfere in foreign relations, violate the international law, and expand wrongly the power of U.S. Courts. The Argentina compared a turn-over to a foreign judge ordering the U.S. Government to ship gold stored at Fort Knox out of the country, because this court misinterpreted U.S. laws. It also claimed that it would be unfair for the country to relinquish its control of the largest energy company in the country, even if it won the case. Reporting by Jonathan Stempel, New York; Editing by William Mallard
Oil, tariffs and wars disrupt central bank's roadmap
Investors are becoming more uneasy about the uncertain economic environment. The shock rate reduction in Norway on Thursday highlighted how U.S. Tariffs, Middle East conflict, and a shaky Dollar make global monetary policies and inflation harder to predict.
Norway's crown fell by about 1% in relation to the dollar and euro, indicating how unexpected this move was. Switzerland's central bank, which warned of a cloudy outlook for the global economy, cut its borrowing costs on Thursday to 0%, surprising some traders who expected a return to negative interest rates.
A day earlier, the U.S. Federal Reserve had kept interest rates at current levels and Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve Board said that "nobody" was confident about the future rate path.
Markets must contend with monetary policy uncertainties in the face of geopolitical, trade and other risks.
A gauge of volatility expected in European equities reached a two-month peak as stocks fell across the region and government bonds, which are usually safe havens for geopolitical risks, were sold off.
Mark Dowding, chief investment officer of RBC Global Asset Management and BlueBay, said: "We are in a period of significant policy and macro-uncertainty."
He added that he would not be making active market wagers on the investment portfolios of his group because he could not see a clear interest rate trend.
Investors said that volatility was on the rise because geopolitical factors such as a volatile dollar and fluctuating oil prices made it difficult for central banks to give investors and markets a clear roadmap.
T.S. Davide Oneglia, director of European and Global Macro at Lombard.
BROKEN MODELS
The Fed is not the only central bank that has cut rates. It also faces inflationary threats from President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
The dollar, which is the backbone of global trade, commodity values and asset valuations has become weaker and volatile due to trade war stress, and anxiety about government debt.
Nick Rees, Monex Europe's head of Macro Research and a specialist in macroeconomics, said: "That is a massive shift that has occurred on the global markets. Everyone is trying to evaluate it."
All of the standard economic rules that we use to forecast are totally broken right now.
The dollar has fallen almost 9% this year against other major currencies, but it has also risen since the war between Israel and Iran broke out.
Francois Villeroy de Galhau, a policymaker at the European Central Bank, said that if the volatility in oil prices continues for a long time, then it may be necessary to adjust its rate-cutting plans.
Analysts said that the new status quo of markets could be a period of central bank surprises, which would create rapid shifts to market narratives, asset pricing, and volatility trends.
Oneglia stated that "we're entering a new cycle where variables are more volatile because events and human factors play a major role, and not just monetary policy, which is easily predictable."
Kit Juckes, Societe Generale’s head of FX Strategy, said that Norway’s surprise cut was due to the fact that the Norwegian crown had been a “runaway top currency” during the trade war era.
The Swiss franc is soaring, as investors search for alternative wealth stores that do not use U.S. dollar. This has led to a drop in import costs and pushed the economy towards deflation.
The franc rose on Thursday against the dollar, as traders believed that the SNB's cuts were too small to prevent deflation.
Ninety One's multi-assets head John Stopford stated that the risk of global stock prices increasing was a concern and that options that offer protection against incoming volatility appeared to be fairly inexpensive.
He bought bonds in countries where rates and inflation could drop materially. For example, New Zealand. But he was against longer-dated U.S. Treasuries, and German Bunds, where the economic uncertainty is higher, and borrowing by government will likely increase.
After investors relaxed over tariffs, global stocks are still almost 20% higher than their April lows.
Stopford stated that there is more to be concerned about in the near term.
Stopford continued, "The stock exchange feels like a thatched home in a hot land with a high fire risk. People aren't charging a lot to insure this house."
(source: Reuters)