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India and central Asian countries express joint interest in rare earths exploration
In a statement released after the India-Central Asia Dialogue's fourth meeting in New Delhi, India and five countries from central Asia expressed an interest in exploring rare earths together. The announcement coincides with global alarm about China's decision not to export rare earth alloys and mixtures. This has affected industries from automotives to clean energy and defence. India and central Asian countries, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan as well as Uzbekistan, also asked "relevant authorities" to convene the India-Central Asia Rare Earth Forum sooner than the September meeting. The statement added that the sides agreed to meet again in 2026. Rare earths is a grouping of 17 elements, whose main uses include the creation of magnets for motion in cars, cellphones and missiles. China produces 90% of the rare earth magnets in the world and mines 60% of it. However, as part of a sweeping response to U.S. tariffs on imports by President Donald Trump, China announced export restrictions for these rare earth magnets. India has been in talks with companies about establishing long-term stocks of rare earth magnets, offering tax incentives to domestic producers, to reduce its dependence on Chinese shipments, according to a report on Thursday. South Asia also plans to offer incentives to recycle 24 essential minerals. The plan is currently being approved as the nation looks to secure minerals for the green energy transition. (Reporting and writing by Shivam Patel; editing by Alex Richardson, David Evans, and Sakshi Dayal)
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US declares Biden fuel efficiency rules exceed legal authority
The Transportation Department has paved the road for looser fuel economy standards in the United States by declaring on Friday that former President Joe Biden’s administration overstepped its authority when it assumed a high uptake of electrical vehicles to calculate rules. The Department made this declaration when it published its final "Resetting of the Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency Program" (CAFE). Fuel economy requirements will be revised by a separate rule issued by the Trump administration. "We make vehicles more affordable in the United States and we are making it easier to manufacture them." In a statement, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said that the previous administration used CAFE standards to mandate electric vehicles. In writing the rule under Biden last year, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration of the Department of Transportation (NHTSA) "assumed that significant numbers of EVs will continue to be manufactured regardless of the standards established by the agency," the department said on Friday. Duffy signed in January an order that directed NHTSA to cancel fuel economy standards set under Biden, for model years 2022-2031. These standards were intended to reduce the fuel consumption of cars and trucks. Late Thursday Senate Republicans have proposed to eliminate fines for failing to meet CAFE standards as part of an extensive tax bill. This is the latest step to make it easier for automakers build gas-powered cars. In 2018, Chrysler's parent company Stellantis, which is owned by Chrysler, paid nearly $400 million in penalties between 2016 and 2019. GM paid $128.2 millions in penalties between 2016 and 2017. Stellantis stated that it backed the Senate Republican proposal, "to provide relief until DOT develops their proposal to reset CAFE standards." The current standards are not in line with the market realities and immediate relief is needed to preserve affordability and freedom. GM has declined to comment. NHTSA, under Biden in June 2024, said that it would increase CAFE requirements for light-duty vehicle to approximately 50.4 miles per liter (4.67 litres per 100 km), from 39.1 mpg at present. Last year, the agency estimated that the rule for cars and trucks could reduce gasoline consumption and emissions by 659 millions metric tons. This would result in a reduction of fuel costs and a net benefit of $35.2 billion. (Reporting and editing by Aidan Lewis, Peter Graff, and David Shepardson)
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Trump approves coal mine expansion for Asia exports
The U.S. The U.S. The Montana-based company can now recover 22.8 million metric tonnes of federal coal, 34.5 millions of adjacent nonfederal coal as well as extend the life of its Bull Mountains mine for nine years. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum is also the co-chairman of Trump's Energy Dominance Council. He said that by unlocking more federally owned coal, it allows the U.S. a chance to strengthen ties with U.S. ally abroad. He said that President Trump's declaration of a national emergency in the energy sector allowed us to act quickly, reduce bureaucratic delays, and secure America’s future by ensuring energy independence and strategic trade. Signal Peak sent its initial plan to expand their mining operations to Office of Surface Mining Reclamation and Enforcement (OSMRAE) in 2020, but it is currently under federal review and subject to litigation. The Interior Department has completed the environmental impact assessment for the mine expansion in accordance with its new policy, which speeds up such reviews by a maximum 28 days. Burgum joined Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin and Japanese and Korean officials in Alaska this week to promote an LNG and other energy exports destined for Asian market. The Bull Mountains Mine, located in Musselshell County and Yellowstone County, employs more than 250 workers, and supplies primarily Japan and South Korea. Environmental groups have attempted to block the expansion due to concerns over water consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Valerie Volcovici)
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Gold drops as US job data clouds prospects for rate cuts
Gold prices slipped on Friday after a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report dampened hopes for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, while silver soared to its highest level since 2012. As of 10:45 am, spot gold was down 0.6%, at $3,333.69 per ounce. ET (1445 GMT), and has risen 1.2% in the past week. U.S. Gold Futures fell 0.6% to $3356.50. According to a report by the Labor Department, non-farm payrolls rose 139,000 in may, as opposed to estimates of a 130,000 increase, according economists polled. The unemployment rate was 4.2% in line with expectations. The data came in line with expectations, which is negative for gold, as it suggests that the Fed will stay on hold for some time, said Marex analyst Edward Meir. Based on the trading of short-term interest rate futures, traders are hesitant to make bets on a Fed third rate reduction by year's-end. Gold is a hedge for inflation and geopolitical unrest. Gold is less attractive as a result of higher interest rates, since it does not yield any return. There was little clarity on trade policy after the call between U.S. president Donald Trump and Chinese leaders Xi Jinping, which took place on Thursday. These are difficult negotiations that won't be resolved over the phone. Meir said that if the headlines on tariffs turn negative, it's good for gold. After hitting a record high of more than 13 years, spot silver dropped 0.3% to 36.04. Silver's gains "appear to have been driven by speculative flow, who saw it as way too cheap in comparison with gold. The break above the 35/oz mark amplify the move," Giovanni Staunovo said, an analyst at UBS. Palladium, meanwhile, rose 3.4%, to $1,039.78, the highest level since March 20, 22. Platinum also rose 3.4%, to $1168.72. Both metals are expected to see weekly gains.
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Copper prices rise in the near future due to falling LME stocks
Due to concerns about the near-term supply of copper at the London Metal Exchange, due to the falling stock levels in LME registered warehouses, contracts with shorter maturities have been priced higher than those with longer maturity. A month ago, the discounts on nearby LME copper against forwards with longer dates were converted into premiums as COMEX prices continued to be higher than those of the LME. The premium of cash LME copper over benchmark 3-month futures The price of a ton was $75 on Thursday, but it jumped to $93 at the close. This is the highest level in over two years. The discount was $63 back in early April. The backwardation is a sign of some sort of shortage. "Normally, it's in contango," explained Dan Smith of Commodity Market Analytics. The total copper stock in the LME's warehouse system has been reduced by half since mid-February, to 132.400 tons. This is the lowest level in nearly a year. The 54,600 tonnes of available stocks (those not marked for shipment) are the lowest level since July 2023. Alastair Muuro, Senior Base Metals Strategist EMEA at Marex, explained that the sharp movement in the spread was due to new cancellations of LME stocks. He said that the premium was lower on Friday because there were no new major cancellations of title documents, such as warrants. Stocks continued to leave LME registered warehouses. Recent mine supply disruptions, traders diverting metals to the U.S. and Washington's investigation into the possibility of tariffs on imports of copper are fueling fears. Despite the fact that there is not a dominant holder of LME copper warrants (0#LMEWHL>) ahead of expiration of contracts on Wednesday the third of each month, one party had more than 90% of cash copper contracts as of June 4, helping to maintain the premium. 0#LMEWHC> (Reporting and editing by David Evans; Polina Devitt)
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Fuego volcano in Guatemala spewing ash has forced more than 700 people to evacuate
Guatemala's Fuego Volcano emitted ash miles high into the sky on Friday, as authorities evacuated 700 people as a precaution. Seismology agency INSIVUMEH reported that a lava flow was forming around the crater, which is located about 18 km away from Antigua Guatemala. It added that some ash plumes could reach up to 5 km in the air. Authorities have warned of an increase in activity around the active volcanic cone this week. "We evacuated more than 700 people who spent the night in shelters." "We evacuated them out of caution," said disaster agency CONRED on Friday. It added that people had been relocated from nearby Escuintla and Sacatepequez, as well as Chimaltenango. In a Friday evening report, INSIVUMEH reported that a lava stream could be seen stretching for 1.2 kilometers. It said that "this continues to accumulate in a unstable manner around crater, and in the higher parts of the ravines which could collapse and lead to more pyroclastic flow". Fuego is well-known for its regular activity. Fuego's most violent eruption, in June 2018, killed over 200 people. The Central American nation has 37 volcanoes. Many of these are dormant, or even extinct. Reporting by Sofia Menchu; Writing by Aida Pelaez-Fernandez, Editing by Sarah Morland & Andrew Heavens
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Sinomine, China's copper smelter in Namibia is halted due to a global shortage of concentrates.
Sinomine Resource Group, China, announced on Friday that it had temporarily suspended copper smelting at its Tsumeb facility in Namibia. The group cited a shortage in concentrate due to a rapid expansion of smelter capacities worldwide. Sinomine acquired Dundee Precious Metals' Tsumeb Smelter in 2024, which is one of only a few facilities worldwide that can treat copper concentrates containing arsenic or lead. The smelter has the capacity to process up to 240,000 tons of copper concentrate per year. It previously processed metal from Chile, Peru, and Bulgaria. The global copper smelting industry has grown rapidly in the last few years. This has led to a rapid increase in production, which has outpaced demand for the metal, whose use has been boosted in recent times by its use in technologies that generate renewable energy, such as electric vehicles. Sinomine Tsumeb Smelter's CEO Loggan Lou stated in a press release that the increased smelting capacities in major copper producing regions have "resulted a substantial overcapacity". Lou stated that "this has caused a shortage in copper concentrate and placed pressure on smelters around the world, including Tsumeb." Sinomine plans on upgrading the smelter in order to commercially produce multiple metals and minerals. Sinomine announced in September that the Tsumeb Smelter contained 746 metric tonnes of germanium. This mineral is essential for chipmaking and other applications such as solar cells, infrared technologies, fibre optic cables and infrared technology. The smelter also explores the addition of germanium or zinc smelting to the smelter.
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Russia asks UN agency for help in solving the question of US fuel at Ukraine's nuclear plant
The U.N. nuclear watchdog was asked by Russia on Friday to mediate in the dispute between Moscow and Washington over the fate of U.S. fuel that is stored at an Ukrainian power station controlled by Russian forces. Russia wants to restart Zaporizhzhia, a nuclear power plant that was idled for many years. It is located near the front line of the Ukraine war and produced a fifth or more of Ukraine's electrical output. Fuel is just one of many issues that are preventing the restart. Rafael Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency said this week that it is currently impossible to restart the reactor due to the lack of stable electricity and water cooling. After meeting Grossi, Alexei Likhachev, the Russian chief of nuclear energy, said that Russia would be willing to either use the fuel supplied by the U.S. firm Westinghouse or remove it completely and return it back to the United States. In a televised comment, he stated that Westinghouse and U.S. Energy officials had raised intellectual property concerns in relation to the fuel issue with Russia. Grossi was quoted by the state news agency RIA as saying that the IAEA is willing to mediate. Both Russia and Ukraine accuse the other of bombarding Europe's biggest nuclear power plant, Zaporizhzhia, increasing the risk of an accident. Likhachev stated that Russia had prepared "a comprehensive plan" for a phased commissioning. However, it could only take place if all threats to the military were removed. In March 2022, Russia occupied the facility shortly after its troops invaded Ukraine to start the war. The facility has six reactors. The last one stopped producing electricity in September 2022. (Reporting and writing by Mark Trevelyan, Gleb Stolyarov and Maxim Rodionov)
Tesla falls as Trump-Musk's bromance soured. Stocks are on alert for payrolls
Asian shares were tepid on Friday, as investors prepared for the important payrolls report. Tesla also suffered massive losses due to the public feud between Elon Musk and President Donald Trump.
The markets are wary after a string of weak economic data, and they're worried that a surprise downturn in the payrolls report due later today could add to fears of inflation while increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve.
Tesla shares rose 0.8% after hours trading, after plummeting 14% overnight and wiping out $150 billion of market value. Trump had threatened to stop government contracts for Elon Musk's businesses after the relationship, which was once very close, turned into an angry public feud.
Futures on the Nasdaq were unchanged, while those for S&P 500 rose by 0.1%.
MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 0.1% on Friday, but is still expected to rise 2.2% weekly and hover at just below its eight-month high.
Japan's Nikkei gained 0.3%, but will drop by 0.7% on a weekly basis.
The KOSPI, the South Korean stock index, is closed this week for a holiday. However, it was up 4,2% to a near 11-month high as newly-elected President Lee Jae Myung prepared an emergency package designed to revive the economy. The won also gained 2% to reach an eight-month high this week.
The blue chips in China were flat, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.3% after a phone call between Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping failed to provide any clarity on how to ease the ongoing trade tensions.
Luke Yeaman is the chief economist of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. He said that the U.S. and China agreement to deescalate tensions and the recent telephone call between Trump, and Xi shows both countries are able to tolerate economic pain.
This takes off some serious downside scenarios, but tensions are high and more bouts of escalation will likely occur...we see few prospects that a comprehensive US China trade agreement will be resolved by 14 August."
WAIT FOR PAYROLLS
Payrolls report expectations have been dampened by weaker-than-expected labour data. This includes a 47% jump in Challenger's layoffs year-on-year and a major surprise on the downside in ADP private payrolls.
Forecasts predict a gain of 130,000 new jobs in May with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%.
A sudden weakness in the U.S. economy could trigger a rate cut and cause a massive rally in Treasuries. The futures market indicates that there is little chance of a rate reduction until September. This is 93% priced-in, and another move will likely come in December.
The yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries remained flat at 4.3925 percent, after rising 3 basis points over night to recover from a 1-month low.
In a client note, analysts at TD Securities said that they expect payrolls in May to print below consensus levels of 110,000.
In recent weeks, the markets have been focusing solely on tariffs and debts. Macro has taken a backseat. We may not have enough information to help catalyze a renewed focus on macroeconomics, but we do expect that downside surprises will cause a greater market reaction.
On Friday, the dollar's value against its major counterparts was unchanged. However, it was expected to drop by 0.7% in the coming week due to weak economic data.
After the European Central Bank reduced rates, but also signaled the nearing end of the year-long policy-easing cycle, the euro gained some support overnight and reached a six-week high of $1.1495. Investors have given in to a move for July. The final move is expected in December.
On the commodities market, oil prices are slightly lower than last week but they will likely rise by a large amount this week due to supply concerns. U.S. Crude Futures fell 0.1% to $65.29 per barrel, but were up 2.1% on the week.
Gold prices rose 0.3%, to $3,362 per ounce. They are up 2.2% for the week.
(source: Reuters)