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Sources: Gunfire and explosions at Niamey's airport and perimeter of the presidency in Niger
According to two witnesses, gunfire and explosions were heard in several parts of the capital city, Niamey on Saturday morning. The cause of the explosions and gunfire is not known. The city, and more specifically the complex that houses the international airport, and the military airbase, experienced major unrest for the third time this year. This highlights the persistent insecurity of the military-led regime which took power in a 2023 coup, promising to restore order. Security sources reported that "terrorists'" attacked the Diori Hamani International Airport and tried to breach the perimeter security around the presidency. Witnesses reported hearing heavy gunfire near the presidency. Bana Wagana Ibrahim is a member of Niger’s Bureau of the Consultative Council, and a delegate in the Alliance of Sahel States Parliament (AES). He said on Facebook that attackers targeted the military base, Base 101, but security forces had recovered control. Ibrahim wrote: "Another cowardly assault on Base 101? and once again, our defence forces and security forces made sure... situation under control." A witness, however, reported that there was 'further gunfire and heavy explosions at the airport in the early morning hours following Ibrahim's posting. Another security source said that security forces launched massive operations, and that attackers were "neutralized", while others fled. We could not independently verify Ibrahim's and the sources of security. The military government of Niger was not available to comment immediately. NIGER IS KEY URANIUM PRODUCER Since a coup in July 2023 that removed President Mohamed Bazoum, the Niger has been ruled militarily. Despite promises by its military leaders to improve security, Burkina Faso continues to fight islamist insurgencies that are linked to?al Qaeda or Islamic State. West Africa's al Qaeda -affiliated group claimed responsibility for a?attack in June on the airport at Niamey, five months after Islamic State Sahel Province had targeted the site. Since gaining power, Abdourahamane Tiani’s?junta shifted away Western partners, deepened ties to Russia, and broke with the regional ECOWAS group, joining Mali, Burkina Faso, and forming the AES breakaway bloc. Niger's unrest comes at a time when authorities are tightening control over the country's uranium industry, after seizing assets from France Orano. Niger was a major supplier of nuclear fuels to Europe, with about 15% of Orano’s uranium at full capacity. According to a government decree, last week the government redistributed former Orano uranium and GoviEx permits to state-backed firms.
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The risk of a lake bursting near the China-Nepal border disaster area is decreasing
Chinese authorities reported on Saturday that the threat of a large lake forming after a 'glacier collapse' near the border between China and Nepal, where a deadly flood occurred earlier this week, has diminished. Satellite images taken from Thursday morning to Saturday morning show that the water flowing through the lake, which straddles the China-Nepal boundary at the confluence two rivers, has been decreasing the reservoir slowly, according to state broadcaster CCTV, citing the Water Resources Ministry. Satellite images of the lake surface at Purepu Tsangpo River showed that it was around the size 14 football fields combined on Saturday morning. This is a 21,000 sqm reduction compared to Thursday's images. A massive glacier slide on Wednesday sent a torrent of rocks, ice, and debris down the Himalayan river systems, washing away a complex of border ports linking China's Tibet with Nepal. Hundreds were killed, while thousands are still missing. Authorities and experts have warned of the high risk of secondary disasters, particularly from the lake formed by glacier debris. This could endanger rescue operations downstream. China Anneng, a state-owned engineering and safety enterprise, has been monitoring Lake Tai since Thursday. On Friday, a 15-member group was sent with reconnaissance drones and portable satellite stations, as well as mobile surveillance cameras, to collect more information about the lake. A lake overflow on Friday temporarily stopped rescue efforts until further assessment determined that the risks were manageable. Authorities have also marked another large body of water below the collapsed glacier. The depth of the mudslide is not known, said Chen Hongqi a senior engineer with the Geological Disaster Technical Guidance Center of Ministry of Natural Resources. An official from Nepal's Disaster Management Authority said that flood risks would?remain" until the two lakes had been completely drained. According to CCTV, in a 'bleak rainy morning on Saturday, more than fifty rescue workers searched through the grey rubble and mud of boulders looking for any survivors and calling out. On Friday afternoon, a first team of search and rescue dogs had arrived at the location of the Gyirong Border Crossing Complex. They described it as nothing but ruins. Xinhua, the state news agency, said that the Chinese relief efforts continue to be challenged by the dangerous conditions in the main disaster area, which are made more complicated because roads and communications have been cut off. China's death toll from the disaster grew to seven early on Saturday morning, with 554 people still missing. Xinhua reported that a total of 555 tourists, including nearly 500 villagers, construction workers and all 555 tourists, have been evacuated from the affected area.
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Foreign Minister says Nepal needs assistance in technical areas and not in search and rescue.
Nepal is in need of foreign assistance in areas such as search and rescue and specialised technical fields, which are not its expertise, following the devastating flood that struck its Himalayan border area with China last week. The collapse of a glacier on Wednesday released a torrent of rocks, ice, debris and mud into the Himalayan river systems. Nearly 600 people were killed in Nepal, China, Tibet, while more than 2,000 are still missing. Shisir khanal stated that Kathmandu needed foreign assistance in areas like rescuing people trapped in tunnels, opening communication and transport services where bridges were destroyed, identifying?dead bodies, DNA testing, and storing corpses for longer periods. Khanal, late Friday night, said that "we have already requested such specialised services as well as technical assistance in the areas where we lack expertise and know-how." The giant neighbours India and China, between whom this poor Himalayan nation is wedged, were asked to allow bailey bridges in the disaster-hit region, where two dozen bridges had been destroyed, to reopen as soon as possible. On Friday, the Nepalese foreign ministry said that Kathmandu was able to manage rescue efforts on its own and had declined foreign involvement. Khanal, when asked about the stance taken by his government, said that there was no need for?assistance in general?search and rescue?which was being done?by Nepali rescuers. He said, "We don't think this needs to be repeated."
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Trump: U.S. oil deal with Venezuela.
On Friday, U.S. president Donald 'Trump' said that the U.S. entered into an oil agreement with Venezuela. Trump said on Truth Social that Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of war Pete Hegseth had secured the majority U.S. ownership of more than 65 BILLION BARRELS of proven oil reserves in Venezuela. This was done at no cost to American taxpayers. Trump claimed that the agreement would double American oil reserves. The U.S. has been promoting American investments in the deteriorated Venezuelan energy industry since January when it?captured? and removed? former President Nicolas Maduro. The Trump administration is under pressure to lower gasoline prices ahead of the midterm elections later this year. This could be achieved by reducing oil supply costs and increasing production. The U.S. has also been searching for ways to?replenish the Strategic Petroleum?Reserve (the oil stockpile), including the possibility of swapping crude with U.S. producers. Reporting by Costas Pittas and Christian Martinez, Editing by Jasper Ward & CaitlinWebber
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Moody's changes Nigeria's outlook from 'negative' to 'positive'
Moody's ?on Friday revised Nigeria's outlook ?to "positive" from "stable", citing the country's improved ability ?to withstand ?external shocks ?due to ?its increased foreign exchange reserves and stronger-than-expected economic growth. Africa's third largest economy, which is also a major oil exporter, has benefited from the rise in crude prices caused by the Middle East conflict, as well as the increase in refined petroleum products exported, boosting its current account surplus. Moody's expects that the West African nation's excess "will?remain substantial even with materially lower oil prices." The World Bank projected Nigeria's economy to grow by 4.2% in 2026. They also said that fiscal discipline, tighter monetary policy, and higher oil revenues could help to?strengthen the macroeconomic stability of Nigeria and contain inflation. Moody's has confirmed the country's rating at "B3", as it reflects fiscal pressures due to limited revenue generation?capacity and weak debt affordability. In May, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria's sovereign rating from "B-" to "B", citing improved creditworthiness and sustained structural reforms. A month earlier, Fitch had affirmed Nigeria's "B" rating with a stable outlook.
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Gold falls 3% after Fed Warsh comments increase rate hike bets
Gold prices reversed their course on Friday and fell over 3% as traders increased bets that interest rates would rise after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh made remarks about curbing inflationary forces. By 01:44 pm EDT (1744 GMT), spot gold had fallen 2.9% to $4,567.23 an ounce, its lowest price since August 20. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled ?2.9% lower at $4,529.9. Bullion is down 2.9% after today, a drop from its more than three-month high price of $4,696.18 on Tuesday. "Gold is being slapped as Chair Warsh confirms that inflation isn't slowing meaningfully and the Fed still has work to do." It may be once again a case of'speak out loud and carry a short stick,' but this will make the price of the September meeting look like a coin toss," said independent analyst Tai Wong. The traders increased their bets for a rate hike in September after Warsh stated that the Fed would "have to work" if they are not confident the underlying inflation will return to the 2% target. This is the closest Warsh has come to admitting interest rate increases may?be necessary to ease the price pressures. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now expect a U.S. interest rate increase in September. This is up from 36% before Warsh's remarks. They also see an 89% likelihood of an increase in December. In an environment of high interest rates, gold tends to lose its appeal as it provides no yield. Dollars rose to a record high of over a week, increasing the price of greenback bullion for holders of other currencies. This week, gold discounts in India fell as the market grew sceptical that the government might consider rolling back a recent increase in import duties. Spot silver dropped 3.5% to $66.21 per ounce. Platinum was down 0.6% to $1,835.07 while palladium rose 5.3% to $1422.25 an inch.
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Author of new study calls the myth that Robusta coffee is climate resilient a "myth".
In an interview, the lead author of the study called the widespread belief that Robusta coffee was more resistant to climate change than other varieties an "internet myth" that was based on flawed studies that ignored the crop's vulnerability and its inability to tolerate drought. Robusta coffee is often viewed as a cheap filler when compared to arabica beans. However, each year, millions of bags are shipped worldwide, with the majority coming from Brazil and Vietnam. The findings published in the Wiley journal Sustainable Development late Thursday are a challenge to those who advocate robusta as an alternative way of coping with 'climate change' in the coffee industry. Any reassessment on robusta's climate resilience will have implications for farmers, traders, and consumers as the demand for robusta increases around the globe. A Vietnamese coffee official said earlier this month that adapting climate change is no longer an issue for the future but a 'urgent necessity' to protect output. The robusta plant's high heat tolerance is often cited by the media, farmers, and researchers as the "coffee industry"s answer to climate change. However, a new paper published in Sustainable Development has found that these previous assessments are at best provisional. The paper cited errors in research, such as treating irrigated farmland as the best growing area. Aaron Davis, the lead author of the paper and senior research leader for crops and global changes at the Royal Botanic Gardens in Kew, said that the "internet myths" about Robusta being more resilient to climate change emerged a decade or so ago. Davis stated, "I found that it was troubling that some people were not interpreting science correctly and were advocating robusta to save the coffee industry from climate change." "Robusta can tolerate more heat than arabica but is not drought-tolerant." The paper concluded that Brazil, Vietnam, and India do not have the right climate to grow robusta. It recommended irrigation as a way to make sure the plants get enough water to be profitable. Previous?studies sought to highlight the robusta's resistance, suggesting that the beans were more resistant to a?drought. They also suggested that they are a boon to farmers. The paper stated that any expansion of robusta production must take into account the crop's vulnerability. It added that "growers" in certain regions already face serious problems with water availability for irrigation. The study concluded that relying solely on irrigation to ensure robusta's survival and profitability is fraught with inherent dangers. Davis stated that "the global coffee supply must undergo major structural and systematic changes if it is to survive for the long-term."
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Sources say that after drone attacks in late August, Russia's gas production dropped to 70% of the domestic demand.
According to two sources in the industry, Russia's gasoline production fell to 70% of its domestic consumption by the end August. This was after a series drone attacks forced major refineries into suspension of operations. Ukraine has intensified its attacks on Russia's infrastructure to reduce Moscow's revenue. This has created a fuel shortage that has forced Russia import petroleum products, and maintain sales restrictions throughout the country. After a short respite in July when local authorities began to?ease or lift restrictions on fuel sale, shortages returned in Russian regions by August. According to sources, gasoline production dropped at the end August?to about the same level as in early July. This was at the height of the first wave, a fuel shortage that had been building since May. Regional authorities have again imposed restrictions. These include limits on the number of purchases per customer, and sales schedules based on vehicle plate numbers. Drivers have avoided non-essential journeys because they are afraid of waiting in long queues or running out fuel. Drones have struck several refineries in the past week and stopped their operations, including those located in Perm and Nizhny Novgorod, which are all major producers of motor fuel. Sources said that the emergency shutdowns increased the gap between gasoline supply and demand to about 35,000 tons per day. This means that the current production, at around 80,000 tonnes per day only compensates for 70% of the domestic demand. The average gasoline production in August was about 90,000 metric tons per day. This is equivalent to approximately 80% of the estimated'summer demand' of 115,000 metric tons per day. The Russian Energy Ministry has not responded to a comment request. Imports are increasing as a result of the fuel shortage. According to participants in the market, seaborne supplies from Asian nations are expected to reach 270,000 tons by?August. Meanwhile, gasoline imports from Belarus will be around 150,000 tonnes during the month. This is roughly 5,000 tons a day. According to?traders, 220,000 tons of 'imported gasoline' have arrived in Russia so far in August. This is an average of around 7,000 tonnes per day. The domestic market may be able to meet 85% of the demand in August with a daily average of 97,000 tons, as gasoline exports are banned until 31 January.
OPEC+ will consider another accelerated increase in oil production for June
Three sources with knowledge of OPEC+ discussions have said that several OPEC+ members are likely to suggest that the group increase oil production in June, for a second month running. This is because a dispute between members about compliance with production quotas has worsened.
Oil prices fell to a four-year-low in April. This was due to a U.S. - China trade war, and a surprise decision by OPEC+ in May that they would increase their output by 411,000 barrels of oil per day - three times what the group had originally planned.
Three sources, without naming specific countries, said that some countries wanted to increase production by the same volume as the increase in May.
On May 5, eight OPEC+ member countries will gather to discuss the output plan for June.
Requests for comments from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the Saudi Arabian Authorities were not immediately responded to.
The oil prices that were positive in the early trading on Wednesday turned negative later. Brent crude, a global benchmark, traded down by more than 2%, to less than $66.50 a barrel.
OPEC+ sources claim that Saudi Arabia pushed to increase output faster in May, after Kazakhstan and Iraq upset the kingdom with their production levels. OPEC+ senior ministers met on April 5, and said that compliance must improve.
Kazakhstan said, however, that it would put national interests ahead of those of OPEC+ in deciding output levels.
The Kazakh Energy Minister said on Wednesday that the country would not be able to reduce the production of independent oil companies on its land and would also not close its own oil fields, as this would harm their future production.
Amrita Sen is the co-founder and CEO of Energy Aspects. She said, "Kazakhstan’s statement confirms our belief that OPEC+ will implement another accelerated unwind for three months again at the May meeting. It may also continue in July or through the summer."
Overproducers
Kazakh oil production fell by 3% in the first two months of April compared to the average of March, but it was still higher than the OPEC+ quota that the country had promised to meet following months of overproduction.
Iraq, the largest producer in the group, has also announced it will reduce output. However, Kpler data shows that exports have increased month-over-month for April.
Not all eight OPEC+ members who are increasing production in response to earlier voluntary cuts do not support a faster increase.
Two separate OPEC+ source said that some countries, such as Russia, prefer to stick with the slower monthly production increases of 135,000 bpd, which were approved earlier, to avoid a crash in prices.
The OPEC+ production increase follows calls by U.S. president Donald Trump to lower oil prices. He also returned to his "maximum-pressure" policy on Iran, whose oil exports Washington wishes to reduce to zero.
Trump will visit Saudi Arabia next May, and calls the country one of America's most important Middle East allies.
The potential increases in May and June are part of an overall plan by Russia and Saudi Arabia to slowly unwind the most recent production cut of 2.2 millions bpd.
OPEC+ has also agreed to cut 3.65 million bpd in other production until the end next year. This will support the market. Reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar and Olesya Astakhova. Editing by Simon Webb and David Goodman.
(source: Reuters)