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Gold reaches all-time high as gold prices rise amid Fed reforms
The global equities market rose on Friday, as investors held on to the belief that U.S. rates could fall even further this year. European shares posted their largest weekly gain in twelve weeks due to a strong performance by banking stocks. U.S. Gold Futures reached a record-high due to uncertainty about whether U.S. Import Tariffs will apply to the most common sizes of gold bars. Investors were looking for signs of an upcoming ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine after hearing that the United States was working with Russia to end the conflict in Ukraine. The expectation of a possible truce put pressure on oil prices. They were also under pressure due to a tariff-hit economy outlook. Stephen Miran, the chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, was nominated for a temporary board seat by President Donald Trump after Adriana Kugler abruptly stepped down. Miran shares the same views as Trump who has criticized Powell for cutting rates "too late", despite the fact that growth is still holding and inflation is increasing. Ray Attrill of National Australia Bank, Sydney's head of FX Strategy said: "It locks-in a vote in favor of rate cuts for all meetings from now until the end of the month." He added that "markets are already traveling with a very high expectation of a rate reduction." There is a question over whether he will be able to ratify the agreement in time for September's meeting. Bloomberg News reported on Christopher Waller, the Fed Governor. He was a frontrunner for the Chair. MSCI's global stock index rose by 0.61% and is now nearing the record high set two weeks ago. Wall Street saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise 0.56% to 44216.64. The S&P 500 rose 0.84% at 6,393.37, and the Nasdaq Composite increased 1.01% to 21458.14. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index rose 0.2%, finishing the week with a gain of over 2%. This was due to largely positive corporate results as well as firming bets on more Fed rate reductions. Prices were lifted from their five-week-lows last week. The shares also rose on the optimism that U.S. tariffs, which went into effect Thursday, would be subject to negotiations. The SMI index in Zurich edged up as traders continued to ignore the 39% U.S. tax on Swiss imports. The shock is real. Now the question is, how will it impact the economy, the data and when? Samy Chaar, Lombard Odier's economist, said that up until now the impact has been less than expected. Tariffs are higher than they were in April. The relief over lower than expected duties could be short-lived. Chaar noted that the European Union has a 15% duty instead of the 50% Trump had threatened. "That is the vulnerability on the market. ... It is focused on the good news which is that it is not about getting 50% but rather 15%. The problem is that 15% represents a huge shock, and at some point it will show up in the data. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond is poised to gain for the first time in three weeks, after a string of weak auctions. U.S. Customs and Border Protection published a ruling Friday on its website, which was interpreted by the gold industry as meaning that U.S. import duties could be applied to the U.S.'s most popular sizes of gold bar. The December U.S. Gold Futures settled at $3,491.30 an ounce, up 1.1% from the previous record of $3,534.10 reported by the Financial Times. The spot gold price rose 0.11%, to $3400.69 per ounce. Brent oil futures are on course to drop nearly 5% in the coming week. WTI is also expected to end lower than last Friday's closing price. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes increased 3.9 basis points, to 4.283%. The Japanese yen has weakened by 0.35%. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) edged up by 0.18%. However, the euro fell by 0.05%. The MSCI broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan closed at -0.63% while Japan's Nikkei rose by 1.85%.
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Russian drones hit SOCAR oil depot in Ukraine's Odesa region, sources say
Two industry sources confirmed on Friday that a Russian drone attack in Ukraine's southern Odesa Region damaged an oil depot owned SOCAR by the Azerbaijani state oil company. One source said that four people were injured in the attack. A source from the energy sector said that "multiple drones" struck the oil depot owned by the Azerbaijani SOCAR company this evening. The damage is hard to estimate at this time. "Several people were hurt." SOCAR has 60 fuel stations in Ukraine. In recent months, Russian forces have intensified their drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian cities far from the frontline. Officials in Ukraine said that earlier this week Russia attacked a gas station used to import LNG imported from the U.S.A. and Azerbaijan as part of an attack intended to undermine winter preparations. In July, Ukraine began pumping a small amount of Azerbaijani natural gas via the Transbalkan route. It also announced plans to increase imports of gas from the Azerbaijani SOCAR energy company. Ilham Aliyev, the Azerbaijani president, is in Washington this Friday. He is expected to sign a first peace agreement mediated by the United States with Armenia at a meeting between Donald Trump and President Aliyev. (Reporting and Writing by Olena Hartmash, Editing By Louise Heavens).
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Petrobras Brazil sees little chance of additional dividends in this year
Fernando Melgarejo, the Chief Financial Officer of Brazil's state-owned oil giant Petrobras, said that the company has little hope of paying out extraordinary dividends in this year. He cited lower revenues due to a fall in oil prices worldwide. Melgarejo said that the company is not planning to change its dividend policy. The executive said that if revenue was lower, it would be more difficult to pay out extraordinary dividends. This statement came during a conference call with analysts following the company's results for the second quarter. We see low chances of having the extra cash this year to make a payment. Melgarejo confirmed the company's $18.5 Billion capital expenditure forecast for this year but said that certain projects could be revised due to lower oil prices. Petrobras announced on Thursday dividends and interest to equity holders of $8.66 billion reais (1.60 billion dollars) while reporting a net profit for the second quarter of $26.7 billion reais. According to Petrobras the average Brent oil price was $67.82 a barrel during the second quarter of this year, down from $75.66 a barrel during the first three month period. Petrobras' preferred shares traded in Sao Paulo fell by more than 5% Friday. This made the oil giant the worst performer on the benchmark Bovespa index, which dropped 0.2%.
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HSBC increases silver price forecast on the strength of gold and geopolitical risk
HSBC raised its silver price predictions for 2025-2026-2027. It cited strong support from the high gold prices, as well as safe-haven demands in light of geopolitical, economic, and political uncertainty. The bank expects silver prices to average $35.14 an ounce by 2025. This is up from the previous forecast of $30.28. In 2026 they are expecting $33.96 per ounce, as opposed to the earlier forecast of $25.95. And in 2027 they expect $31.79, instead of $28.30. HSBC warned that silver prices are surging, but the surge is due more to silver's relationship with Gold than (to) underlying Fundamentals. Record-high gold exerts a "strong gravity pull" on Silver. Gold spot prices have risen 29% this year, after reaching a record of $3,500 an ounce in April, when the U.S.-China trade war erupted, triggering a move into safe-haven investments. HSBC has said that industrial demand for the metal may decline this year after four years with record growth. However, any decreases will likely be small. HSBC said that industrial demand for silver would recover in 2026 due to key sectors like the photovoltaic and electronic industries. The bank said that the demand for jewellery and silverware is expected to continue to decline due to high prices. Coin and bar demand, meanwhile, has been weakened by recent robust purchases as well as high prices. HSBC reported that the silver mine production continues to grow at a modest rate. According to the bank's model of supply and demand, silver will be in deficit by 206 million ounces by 2025. This is a significant increase from a deficit of 167 million in 2024. This is expected to shrink to 126,000,000 ounces by 2026. HSBC said a weaker U.S. Dollar this year as predicted by HSBC Research is a silver positive. Ongoing debates about Federal Reserve rate reductions and central bank policy could also impact prices in the future. Sherin Elizabeth Varighese in Bengaluru and Noel John, who reported the story; Jan Harvey edited it.
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Gold hits record high as stocks rise on investors' interest in Fed reform
Global shares rose Friday, as investors held on to the belief that U.S. rates could fall even further this year. U.S. Gold futures also hit a new record high due to uncertainty about whether U.S. import duties would be applied to the most common sizes of gold bar. Reportage The news that the U.S. is planning a truce with Russia sent global benchmark oil prices to a new session low of $1 per barrel. The economic outlook was impacted by tariffs, which added pressure to crude. Dollar was headed for a loss of 1% per week after U.S. president Donald Trump Moved to reshape The U.S. Central Bank announced its decision on Thursday. After Adriana Kugler abruptly left, he nominated Stephen Miran, the chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, for a temporary board seat, narrowing down his list to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who's term ends on May 15. Miran shares the same views as Trump who has criticized Powell for cutting rates "too late", despite the fact that growth is still holding and inflation is increasing. Ray Attrill of National Australia Bank, Sydney's head of FX Strategy said: "It locks-in a vote in favor of rate cuts for all meetings from now until the end of the month." He added that "markets are already traveling with a very high expectation of a rate reduction." There is a question over whether he will be able to ratify the agreement in time for September's meeting. Bloomberg News reported The Fed Governor Christopher Waller is emerging as the leading candidate for the Chair. The MSCI All-Country Index was up by 0.53%. This is just below the record highs set two weeks ago. Wall Street saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise 0.53% at 44,201.25. The S&P 500 rose 0.72% to 6,385.95, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.85% at 21423.01. The European stock market rose on the back of a string of strong earnings and the optimism that U.S. Tariffs Negotiations would take place over the new tax that was introduced on Thursday. The STOXX 600 was up by 0.15%. The European stock market has recovered from its five-week lows on Friday thanks to a combination of largely positive corporate results, and bets that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates. The SMI index in Zurich edged up as traders continued to ignore Switzerland's Tariff of 39% on U.S. products coming into effect. The shock is real. Now the question is, how will it impact the economy, the data and when? Samy Chaar, Lombard Odier's economist, said that up until now the impact has been less than expected. Tariffs are higher than they were in April. The relief over lower than expected duties could be short-lived. Chaar noted that the European Union has a 15% duty instead of the 50% Trump had threatened. "That is the vulnerability on the market. ... It is focused on the good news which is that it is not about getting 50% but rather 15%. The problem is that 15% represents a huge shock, and at some point it will show up in the data," said he. U.S. Customs and Border Protection published a ruling Friday on its website, which was interpreted by the gold industry as meaning that U.S. import duties could be applied to the U.S.'s most popular sizes of gold bar. The Financial Times broke the news that gold futures had hit a new record of $3,534.10. Brent oil futures fell 0.33% to $66.21 a barrel, while U.S. crude dropped 0.5% to $63.56. After weak demand for a 30-year Bond, the benchmark yield on the 10-year U.S. note rose by 3.7 basis points. Auction The latest in a series of disappointing sales this week. The dollar increased by 0.45%, to 147.24 Japanese yen. The dollar index, which measures the greenback's value against other major currencies, rose 0.25%.
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Reports of US-Russian deal cause oil prices to drop
The oil price fell on Friday, and was on track for its steepest weekly loss since late June. Reports of a deal Tariffs and the economic outlook between U.S. Brent crude futures fell 7 cents to $66.36 per barrel at 11:18 am ET (1518 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures fell 21 cents or 0.3% to $63.67. Brent is on course to drop 4.8% this week, while WTI will finish the week 5.5% lower than Friday's closing price. Bloomberg News reported that Washington and Moscow were aiming to strike a deal in order to end the war in Ukraine. This would secure Russia's occupation over territory it seized in its military invasion. The report cited people with knowledge of the situation as saying that U.S. officials and Russian officials were working on an agreement regarding territories for the planned summit between U.S. president Donald Trump and his Russian equivalent Vladimir Putin, which could take place as soon as next week. This potential meeting could bring an end to the conflict in Ukraine and ease sanctions against Russia. It also comes at a time when trade tensions between Trump and Russian oil buyers are on the rise. This week, Trump warned that he would increase tariffs against India if the country continued to buy Russian oil. Trump said that China, which is the biggest buyer of Russian oil, may also be subject to tariffs similar in size to those imposed on Indian imports. In a recent note, ANZ Bank analysts expressed concern about the economic activity and crude oil demand as a result of higher U.S. import tariffs. Neil Crosby is an energy analyst at Sparta Commodities. He said that "there are many non-oil factors at play including concerns over tariffs, and headlines in recent days about a Trump-Putin meeting imminently." The headline risk is very high at the moment, with the flip-flopping of who will attend a meeting on Ukraine and in what circumstances. Trump said Thursday that he also believes in the idea of a Trump Nominate Stephen Miran, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, will serve the last few months of the newly vacant Federal Reserve seat. This is expected to fuel expectations of a more dovish approach in the future. Low interest rates can reduce the cost of borrowing for consumers and boost economic growth as well as demand for oil. The Dollar Firms On Friday, but heading for a weekly drop. The stronger dollar reduces the demand from foreign buyers for crude oil denominated in dollars. (Additional reporting by Colleen Ghaddar and Ahmad Ghaddar, London; editing by David Goodman and Margueritachoy.)
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Citgo parent shares sold at auction in the US to a bidder competing with its own
In a court filing, an officer in charge of the auction process for shares in Citgo Petroleum's parent company in the United States (owned by Venezuela) has revealed that a bidder had submitted a rival offer. The court was holding the auction to pay creditors who were owed money due from expropriations or defaults. Last month, a $7.4 billion offer by a group headed by a subsidiary owned by Canadian miner Gold Reserve, was recommended as the winner of the bidding process. However, the judge still has to decide whether or not to accept it after some creditors and competitors objected. According to a late Thursday filing, Officer Robert Pincus informed the court of the "unsolicited offer." He did not reveal the date or name of the bidder. Gold Reserve announced in a Friday release that the court had allowed Pincus, a bidder identified as "Bidder B," to communicate with it and to reactivate its access to the data room with Citgo's key information. Gold Reserve said that since the unsolicited offer was received, Pincus has "consistently engaged with Bidder B about its progress towards the proposed transaction" and the bidder now is in active discussions, Gold Reserve stated, with parties who consent or agree to the proposed deal. The miner stated that Pincus had not yet deemed this new offer superior to Gold Reserve's recommendation. Marianna Pararagaa is reporting.
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US gold futures reach all-time high due to tariff uncertainty regarding bullion imports
U.S. Gold Futures reached a record-high on Friday amid uncertainty about whether U.S. Import Tariffs will apply to the most common sizes of gold bar. The spot prices eased, but they remained on course for a weekly increase. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection Service released a decision on its website Friday. According to the gold industry, this ruling could mean that a country-specific U.S. tariff may apply to the most commonly traded sizes of gold bar in the U.S. The December U.S. Gold Futures increased 0.9%, to $3,483.70 an ounce, after reaching a record of $3,534.10 per ounce earlier in the day when the Financial Times first reported the news. Susannah Streeter is the head of money markets at Hargreaves Lansdown. She said: "Gold's ascent in panic shows that even safe-haven assets cannot be immune to the volatility unleashed by the confusion of tariff age." Analysts have generally stated that they are waiting for more clarity on this issue. They also noted that a U.S. duty on gold deliveries would be a significant impact on Switzerland given its position as the leading hub in the world for gold refining, and transit. Spread between spot and futures prices has increased to $95. The spot gold price fell by 0.2%, to $3.388,27 per ounce at 10:17 AM ET (1417 GMT), and was up by 0.8% on the week. Short term, this should not have an impact on retail prices, as the U.S. stocks are huge and demand is very low. If and when this changes, the new tariffs could mean a jamboree in the long term for U.S. refiners who are converting large 400-oz bar into retail units, said Adrian Ash. COMEX gold inventory saw huge inflows between December and February, as traders sought to hedge against the possibility of imposing broad U.S. import tariffs. Silver spot rose 0.2% at $38.25 an ounce. Platinum fell 0.6%, to $1,325.46, and palladium dropped 2.4% to $1,123.50.
Kepler, a Brazilian silo manufacturer, reports weak results and looks to Argentina for growth
Kepler Weber, a maker of silos, posted lower quarterly results due to a weaker operational scenario in Brazil. However executives expressed optimism about the company's growth in Argentina. High interest rates and low grains prices have hurt Brazil's business prospects and profitability, but CEO Bernardo Nogueira says Argentina is a new avenue for growth as the economy and inflation in Argentina improve. Nogueira stated that the situation in Brazil was "dismal" as farmers had produced a record-breaking soy crop, which has pushed prices down globally. Brazil is one of the largest producers and exporters of corn, among other staple foods. Kepler reported that its backlog of silo orders increased by nearly 14% in the second quarter. The net profit, however, fell by 61% in comparison to the same period of last year. It was 14.4 million reais (2.65 million). Kepler generates most of its revenue in Brazil. 90% of the net sales generated by the company in the first half 2025 were domestic.
Farmers in Argentina can invest more in storage as the economic crisis subsides.
Kepler management stated that the country already accounts for 30% Kepler's overseas sales, compared to zero in 2023.
Nogueira compared Brazil's most important grain-producing state to its neighboring country, Argentina. It's amazing what's going on there.
(source: Reuters)