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Wall St. bounces when oil cools and inflation risks keep Fed focused
Stocks in the U.S. rose on Friday, as oil prices fell. This helped to put stocks "on track" to finish a tough week on a positive note. Dell has jumped more than 11%, setting a new record. Hewlett Packard Enterprise jumped nearly 10%, and HP gained around 7% after Oracle's strong results. Gains in the stock market have helped to ease pressure on stocks at a period when fluctuating interest rate expectations, an intensifying Middle East conflict, and high Treasury yields had weighed heavily. After several days of defensive positions, today's movement looks like a regression to mean. "The market might have been temporarily oversold, and now we're seeing some of this unwind," said Andre Bakhos. Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in August after increasing 0.1% the previous month. Consumer inflation increased by 3.4% in the year to August, matching July's gains. Kim Forrest is the chief investment officer of?Bokeh capital Partners. He noted that Thursday's losses may have been exaggerated. The report came after Thursday's slightly higher-than-expected Producer Price Index. According to CME FedWatch, traders?see a 87% chance of an increase?at the Fed’s next meeting. This compares with nearly 70% just before the CPI. Said Haidar is the founder of Haidar Capital Management. He believes that the Federal Reserve should respond in the near future to the concerns of these countries or else risk a repetition of the high inflation experienced during the 1970s. This would be yet another failure for discretionary monetary policies. The time was 11:52 am. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 530.49, or 1.02% to 52,593.73 points; the S&P 500 gained 79.68, or 1.05% to 7,671.38 points; and the Nasdaq Composite rose 318.32, or 1.22% to 26,400.04. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was still on track for its biggest weekly drop since March. Both the S&P 500 (Standard & Poor's 500) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq 100) were set to end their two-week winning streaks. The CBOE Volatility Index (Wall Street's fear gauge) fell by 2.08 points to 15.76. Ten of the eleven major S&P 500 sectors indexes were in green. The communication services and technology sector indexes led the gains. Brent crude futures fell about 3% but were still over $104 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures dropped 3%, but were still close to the $100-a barrel mark. Oracle's stock rose by nearly 1% on Friday after it surpassed estimates for its quarterly results, which showed that the AI investments of Oracle were paying off. ACV Auctions shares soared by 44% following the agreement of online vehicle auctioneer Copart to buy it for nearly $1.9 billion. On the NYSE, advancing issues outnumbered decliners in a ratio of 2.07-to-1 and on the Nasdaq by a ratio of 1.8-to-1. The Nasdaq Composite posted 38 new highs, while the S&P 500 recorded seven new 52-week lows.
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Chevron CEO: Depleted crude oil reserves could lead to higher price
Chevron CEO, Mike 'Wirth' said on Friday that the oil buffers which limited crude prices increases during the Iran War have been exhausted and that the conflict may cause the price to rise further in the coming months. Since the beginning of the war in late February, some countries have released crude stocks to the market. The U.S. has also lifted restrictions on oil that is stored on floating ships from countries subject to?sanctions. Wirth, speaking at the University of Texas?at Austin's energy conference, said that those buffers had now "played themselves out". He said that it was difficult to imagine a scenario in which prices would soften so quickly. "I believe the risks are still to the upside in the coming months." Diesel prices in the United States have averaged $6 per gallon for the first time ever. The average price of diesel in the United States hit $6 a gallon on Thursday for the first time. This was due to the Iran War and Ukrainian attacks against Russian refineries squeezing supply. Brent crude futures are on course for an 8% weekly gain. CHEVRON WONT SEE MANY IMPACTS IN KAZAKHSTAN Wirth stated that President Donald Trump's administration had spoken to Ukraine about the attacks on the?oil-infrastructure in Russia's Black Sea and the company has since seen less impact on its operations. Chevron owns a stake in a 'Caspian Pipeline Consortium' that operates an export pipeline between Tengiz and the Black Sea. Wirth said that the company's planned $7 billion investment in Venezuela will be funded entirely by the cash generated from its existing three joint ventures. Chevron has signed a new contract with Venezuela's government that will allow it to expand into?two new oil fields and to more than double production to 600,000 barrels per day by 2031. Wirth stated that "we'll only live within the means to which those ventures are able to generate cash and not bring cash in from outside."
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Hungary will give subsidies to diesel car owners
The government of Hungary will provide a 'targeted subsidy' to households that use diesel-powered cars as fuel prices have increased. However, the price cap won't be introduced as it could lead to a shortage in supplies. Magyar stated in a post on Facebook that Europe was experiencing a?diesel crisis unprecedented in its history. The global diesel market has tightened dramatically in recent weeks. Industry executives have warned that the supply will remain constrained through 'winter, due to Russia's export embargo, and the approaching peak of 'heating demand. Magyar stated that his government will "provide direct and effective support to the owners of one-million diesel-powered cars and their families." He said that by December, diesel-powered vehicles up to 150 horsepower would receive a total compensation of 20,000 forints (63.96 dollars). Farmers will also get help through refunds of excise taxes. The Middle East has seen its supplies curtailed by the Iran War and the reduced shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Hungarian oil group MOL's main Danube refining facility has been operating at reduced capacity since an October 2025 fire damaged one unit.
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German union demands Volkswagen commit to 2024 Labour Agreement
A leading union representative in Germany said that IG Metall demands Volkswagen honour a landmark labor deal signed in 2024. He cited fears of mass job losses due to a recent turnaround agreement. Thorsten Groeger, a Hanover-based reporter, told reporters that IG Metall members 'decided on Friday to invoke a clause in the agreement signed?in December of 2024. This move is a significant step in the 'fight for Volkswagen's Future', where management has been pitted against state governments and workers over a plan to double layoffs and dramatically cut production. Volkswagen did not immediately comment on the move. Daniela Cavallo is the head of Volkswagen's works council. After mass walkouts the 2024 agreement resulted in wage concessions and 35,000 layoffs. However, it prevented immediate plant closures by securing job and investment assurances from management. Existing labour agreements prevent IG Metall from striking until the end the year. In recent months, tensions have flared up between the two sides over Oliver Blume's plans for a major overhaul, which includes four threatened plant closures in early 2020. This is as Europe's largest carmaker struggles with Chinese competition, mounting duties and high manufacturing costs. Cavallo called the criticism of German manufacturing costs by management "finger-pointing". Cavallo called for more comprehensive policies to protect the industry from heavily subventioned competitors from China. The labour chief stated that "we in the automotive industry are in fierce competition with players who enter the market under totally different competitive conditions. We simply cannot keep up."
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Copper to experience first weekly decline since June due to US tariff concerns
The copper price was headed for its first weekly decline?since June. They also stabilized on Friday after a steep drop in the previous session following reports?that White House had not yet made a decision on imposing tariffs on the metal. The London Metal Exchange's three-month copper was unchanged at $14,230 per metric ton during the official open outcry. It fell 3.6% on Friday after reaching a record high price of $14,875; it is expected to finish the week at a loss of?1.6%. This would put an end to its 10-week winning streak. Alastair Mudro, senior base metals analyst at Marex said via email that the market had been "caught long". He said that copper stocks were still tight in certain areas and it would take time to move large amounts of money. "We see the potential of further tightness but for now, it's about risk management." Sucden Financial stated that heavy volumes on the decline of Thursday showed "meaningful reduction in risk" but agreed with the fact that fundamental tightness underpinning any selloff should be limited. Copper stocks available on the LME Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks in China, the top metals consumer, were unchanged at 117.600 tons. The weekly decline in exports was 13%, to 54,780 tonnes, the lowest level since January 2024. Stocks on the U.S. COMEX Exchange The price of copper in the United States has dropped, but it is still rising. Three-month LME Copper Spread On Thursday, the market structure?flipped into a contango, where future prices?are higher than those?for immediate delivery, signaling a easing of concerns about near-term supply. Cash contract last traded at a discount of $5.50 per ton from?the forward three-month contract. As rising borrowing costs and inflationary concerns roiled the markets, the rest of the LME Complex was in the red. Aluminium dropped 1.4% to $3.249 per ton. Zinc fell 0.6% to $3.870, and lead lost 0.3% to $1.895. Nickel fell 1.5% to $16,410 and reached a new two-month low. Tin dropped 0.7% to $53,950 and hit its lowest level since July 28.
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Inflation in the US increases in August
U.S. consumer price increases accelerated in August as gasoline prices rebounded after two consecutive monthly drops. This boosted financial market expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week. Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Labor Department announced on Friday that Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in August after increasing by 0.1% in July. Consumer inflation increased by 3.4% in the 12-month period ending August after increasing by the same amount in July. The economists polled predicted that the CPI would increase by 0.4% in the month of August and 3.4% on an annual basis. The CPI increased 0.3% in August after increasing 0.2% the previous month. The core CPI rose 2.4% on an annual basis in August, after increasing 2.5% in July. For its 2% target, the U.S. Central Bank tracks Personal?Consumption Expenditures Price Indexes. The government announced on Thursday that the Producer Price Index rose in August. This was due to strong increases in several key components?that are used in calculating PCE inflation. This, along with the robust August employment report released last week, has boosted expectations for a rate increase next week. After comments made by Fed Governor Christopher Waller last week at a NEXT Newsmaker Event, he said he would be inclined to advocate for a rate hike if the data showed that inflation pressures had cooled. The oil price rose above $100 per barrel again on Thursday. Diesel prices are also at record levels, indicating that inflation is likely to continue and spread. Frustration over inflation is growing Tariffs on imports, including the most recent ones against Canada, one United States' largest trading partners, have caused some economists to see price pressures continuing. The frustration over rising prices, particularly for gasoline and foods, has caused a sharp decline in the approval rating of President Donald Trump and could cost him control of the U.S. Congress during?the midterm elections in November. Following Thursday's PPI, economists estimated that August's core PCE index would rise by as little as 0.15 percent to as much as 0.28%. In July, core PCE inflation increased by 0.2%. The estimates for the increase in core PCE inflation over the past year ranged between 3.2% and 3.3%. Core PCE inflation increased by 3.3% over the past 12 months. Some economists believe that the August?PCE report on inflation will include changes in the methodology. This could reduce the core inflation rate a few basis points. According to the CME's FedWatch, the financial markets had priced in a 70% chance that the Fed would raise rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting on September 15-16. The Fed's overnight benchmark interest rate currently ranges between 3.50% and 3.75%. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said last month that the central bank would "have work to be done" if they don't get the confidence needed to believe inflation will?go down to 2%. Trump has been pressuring the Fed for a rate cut, and posted on social media "LOWER THE RATES OR I'LL STOP TRADER WITH COUNTRIES WHERE WE HAVE A DEFICIT." Economists blamed the rise in yields of long-term U.S. Government bonds on what they called political intimidation. Some people expected the Fed would tighten its policy on Wednesday in order to demonstrate its independence.
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German environmental group sues to block Rosatom-linked nuclear fuel permit
BUND -Niedersachsen, a German environmental group, has filed a lawsuit against the Lower Saxony government to stop the expansion of the Lingen nuclear power plant. They claim that the involvement of Rosatom, based in Russia, poses a security risk. The case challenges the clearance by the regional state for a French subsidiary, Framatome, to produce nuclear fuel in Lingen, a northern German town. This was done under a license agreement with a state-backed Russian company. Lower Saxony’s environment?ministry with the guidance of the federal environment ministry had approved approval subject to certain terms and conditions despite political concerns about Russia’s war in Ukraine. BUND, in collaboration with the anti-nuclear.ausgestrahlt group, claimed that the permit was "the result of procedural mistakes and would pose a risk to security because of Rosatom’s role." They claim that the environmental screening was based on outdated documents, and that Rosatom wasn't fully disclosed. Olaf Bandt, BUND Germany's Chair, said that production and inspection could have been manipulated because Rosatom machines are used in Lingen for both manufacturing and quality control. Berlin said that it viewed the collaboration critically. However, the decision was in line with the current laws. The instrument to address these concerns would be?stricter EU sanctions. Lower Saxony's environment ministry stated that the?legal challenges would be?thoroughly evaluated. The letter also referred to a statement made by Lower Saxony’s environment minister Christian Meyer in July, stating that he was 'fundamentally opposed to working with Rosatom' but 'that there were no legal grounds to deny administrative clearance. Rosatom has not responded to all requests for comment. Framatome said that the collaboration was an interim measure to help customers who operate Russian-designed reactors to diversify their purchases away from direct Russian purchase until it develops own production technology.
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Nabiullina, the Russian central bank's Nabiullina, on interest rates and economy
Elvira Nabiullina, Governor of the Russian Central Bank and Alexei Zabotkin, Deputy Governor held a press conference on Friday following the bank's decision to leave its benchmark interest rate at 14%. Nabiullina and Zabotkin both spoke Russian. The following quotes were translated by into English. NABIULLINA POLICY OPTIONS DISSCUSSED, AND NEXT STEPS We discussed the issue of maintaining the current interest rate. This meeting was different from the last one in that we did not discuss a rate reduction. We will update our assessment of the future room for rate cuts in the October forecast update. We do, however, note that pro-inflationary risk has?increased, and continues to be dominant, and will continue to take this into consideration going forward. NABIULLINA ON THE BUDGET PARAMETERS We haven't yet changed our assumptions, estimates or working hypotheses in relation to our budget and the impact on the fuel market. We haven't received any new information about fiscal policy, and we anticipate that the parameters of the "three-year budget" will be finalized this month. If these parameters differ from those in our "baseline scenario", which assumes a 2% budget deficit this year, and a 1% deficit next year. A 0.5% budget deficit is projected for 2028. And a balanced budget by 2029. We will consider that in the revised forecast we release in October.
Venezuela's PDVSA restarts cracker catalytic at Cardon refinery sources say
Venezuela's state-run energy company PDVSA ?has restarted the fluid catalytic cracker of ?its 310,000-barrel-per-day Cardon refinery, ?three sources said ?on Friday, ?complementing output of the neighboring Amuay refinery, whose catalytic cracker is also in service.
Power outages affected refineries that are part of Paraguana Refining Center earlier this year. Since then, PDVSA has tried to restart the operational units, especially those critical for producing gasoline and Diesel.
Sources said that as of 'this week', Cardon has three crude distillation unit, a naphtha Reformer, and a 'catalytic Cracker, while Amuay has two crude distillation units?and the catalytic cracked, which are operational with a combined processing capacity of 287,000 bpd, or 30% of the installed capacity.
The cracker at the country's small refinery, El Palito (146,000 bpd), remained un-serviced after repeated attempts to restart the machine following the twin earthquakes which affected the facility. A separate source stated that workers were preparing for a major maintenance program which would begin in the coming weeks.
PDVSA didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
To meet the domestic demand, refineries must produce 250,000 bpd gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas. This is in addition to the fuel oil that they export.
(source: Reuters)