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HSBC increases silver price forecast on the strength of gold and geopolitical risk

HSBC raised its silver price predictions for 2025-2026-2027. It cited strong support from the high gold prices, as well as safe-haven demands in light of geopolitical, economic, and political uncertainty.

The bank expects silver prices to average $35.14 an ounce by 2025. This is up from the previous forecast of $30.28. In 2026 they are expecting $33.96 per ounce, as opposed to the earlier forecast of $25.95. And in 2027 they expect $31.79, instead of $28.30.

HSBC warned that silver prices are surging, but the surge is due more to silver's relationship with Gold than (to) underlying Fundamentals. Record-high gold exerts a "strong gravity pull" on Silver.

Gold spot prices have risen 29% this year, after reaching a record of $3,500 an ounce in April, when the U.S.-China trade war erupted, triggering a move into safe-haven investments.

HSBC has said that industrial demand for the metal may decline this year after four years with record growth. However, any decreases will likely be small. HSBC said that industrial demand for silver would recover in 2026 due to key sectors like the photovoltaic and electronic industries.

The bank said that the demand for jewellery and silverware is expected to continue to decline due to high prices. Coin and bar demand, meanwhile, has been weakened by recent robust purchases as well as high prices.

HSBC reported that the silver mine production continues to grow at a modest rate.

According to the bank's model of supply and demand, silver will be in deficit by 206 million ounces by 2025. This is a significant increase from a deficit of 167 million in 2024. This is expected to shrink to 126,000,000 ounces by 2026.

HSBC said a weaker U.S. Dollar this year as predicted by HSBC Research is a silver positive. Ongoing debates about Federal Reserve rate reductions and central bank policy could also impact prices in the future. Sherin Elizabeth Varighese in Bengaluru and Noel John, who reported the story; Jan Harvey edited it.

(source: Reuters)