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Taiwan's parliament approves three referendums including one on the caning of sex-criminals
Taiwan's opposition-controlled parliament voted on Friday to hold three referendums, including one ?on caning criminals convicted of sex crimes and ?fraud, and another to support nuclear power, which could be held ?later this year. Taiwan holds referendums?every few year,?generally?after?the citizens sign up for specific proposals. However, lawmakers can also approve these, as in the case of these three votes by lawmakers. The measures must be approved formally by the electoral commission, which will determine the date of the vote. There is no guarantee they will become law if they are passed. A relatively high approval threshold has also been a problem in previous referendums. Taiwan will hold local elections on November 28 for county chiefs, city mayors and other officials. The three referendums may also be held at the same time. The Kuomintang, Taiwan's largest opposition party, proposed both the canning referendum and the nuclear referendum. The third referendum, which was proposed by the tiny Taiwan People's Party, (TPP), that generally votes with KMT, concerns the use of traffic fines for road safety improvement. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party has voted against all three referendums. The opposition believes that the key to a successful referendum is the turnout, and wants them held on the same date as local elections. A referendum must pass if at least 25 percent of the roughly 20 million eligible voters on the island vote in favor. There must be at the very least 5 million "yes' votes and they must outnumber "no' votes. In August last year, an opposition-backed stand-alone referendum to reopen Taiwan's final nuclear plant failed because it didn't reach the legal threshold for validity. The Cabinet has three months in theory to submit relevant legislation to the parliament for approval if referendums are successful. Voters in?2018 approved referendums opposing marriage equality. The same-sex marriage was legalised in the year following because Parliament voted to enforce an earlier court ruling that blocking it would be unconstitutional. Ben Blanchard reports.
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France evacuates 525 people as another wildfire strikes southwest pine forests
French authorities evacuated 525 villages after a wildfire broke out in pine woods near an area that was already devastated by major fires this summer. Gilles Clavreul, regional official, told reporters on Friday that the fire had spread within two kilometers (1.2 miles) from the center of Luglon. He said that the situation was "unfavorable" and added?that six aircraft were sent to help. The police have closed the road to the north and the south, putting a stop to traffic in the village. Luglon lies about 100 km (62 mi) south of Arcachon Bay. Two major fires destroyed more than 124,000 acres of land, forcing 220,000 people to evacuate in July. In France's unheard of wildfire season, temperatures will soar to 36° Celsius (97° Fahrenheit) this Friday afternoon. The area burned so far is greater than the previous record of?2022. The Landes region is surrounded by pine forests that are highly flammable once they dry. (Reporting and writing by Stephanie Lecocq, Jean-Stephane Brosse, Inti Landauro; editing by Clarence Fernandez).
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Wildfires in Germany force the evacuation of 1,800 people after reaching a border village
In the early hours of Friday morning, authorities in Germany ordered about 1,800 residents to leave their homes after a wildfire spread from the west to a village near the Belgian border. In a statement issued at 4 am (0200 GMT), officials from the municipality of Strass said that residents should immediately leave the village?of Gey and head to the assistance centre set up in the nearby village Strass. The 'only essentials' were identification documents, medicines and essential belongings. Authorities said that a wildfire in the nearby woods affected about 25 hectares (62 acre) and triggered a major response. The B399 road through the area, which was closed by emergency services and firefighters, was shut down. Weather officials warn that large swathes of Germany face dry conditions with high fire risks. A wetter winter, which fueled growth in vegetation, dried up during rolling heatwaves. (Writing and editing by Clarence Fernandez; Friederike Heine)
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Asian stocks are on track for a strong week-end gain as US rate hike expectations fade
Asian stocks rose on the Friday as they prepared to?have their strongest week in 2 months, as benign inflation data dented expectation of an imminent U.S. interest rate hike. However,?failing talks to end?the war in 'the Middle East will likely keep risk sentiment under control. Brent?futures remained at $87.03 a barrel, following a decline on Thursday, but were on track for a weekly gain of 4%, ending a two-week loss streak. This was after the U.S. warned to increase economic pressure against Iran, including by extending a navy blockade. The markets have, so far, shrugged off the lackluster progress made in ending the Iran War and instead focused on the AI theme following strong earnings which calmed investors' concerns about massive AI expenditure. European stock futures showed a higher opening, while Nasdaq?futures fell 0.1%. The U.S. Inflation Reports this week indicated that pricing pressure was under control. This lowered the chances of a Federal Reserve rate hike next month. Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist at Saxo. He said that risk appetite has held for now, as the immediate Fed rate hike risk was repriced lower. Chanana said, "This is still headline-driven rally and not a risk-free regime." "Without clarity about the Middle East/Hormuz a new oil spike could quickly bring inflation and Fed worries back." MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan gained?0.16%. This is its best performance since mid-June. Japan's Nikkei rose 1.5%. South Korea's KOSPI - a barometer of investor sentiment in the AI trade - rose 1.8%. It is on track to snap a 7 week losing streak by gaining nearly 11%. John Sidawi is a senior portfolio manager at Federated Hermes for fixed income. He said that a feature of the markets over recent months was a growing disconnect between geopolitical uncertainties and asset price volatility. For now, the markets seem to be willing to accept a considerable amount of uncertainty before demanding higher premiums. This equilibrium is not likely to last forever," Sidawi stated. A meaningful escalation of conflict or a path to resolution could finally force the investors off the sidelines. This could trigger a larger volatility reaction than current market pricing implies. YEN STUCK IN INTERVENTION LOOP The yen is at 159.36 to the dollar. This level is close to 160, which traders believe will trigger a new round of yen purchases from Tokyo after last month's joint intervention with the U.S. failed to stabilize the fragile currency. The idea that the Bank of Japan might finally start to "support" the yen has gained traction, with traders pricing in the prospect of a rate increase next month. However, investors could be disappointed by the BOJ's September meeting if it is not perceived as hawkish. Padhraic G Garvey is the head of ING's global rates and debt strategy. He said that the yen was weak because of "an uber cautious Bank of Japan" and a policy interest rate?that remained too low. Garvey said that rate increases can ease this tension. The sooner they are implemented, the better. While this could be construed negatively for the economy, there is also a choice. Do you want to protect the yen or not? Gold was down 0.6% to $4,325 an ounce in commodities. Traders locked in profits following the yellow metal's highest level since June early in the previous session. This is due to a dimming expectation of a short-term increase. CME FedWatch showed that traders now price in a 35% probability of the Fed raising rates next month compared to 55% one week ago.
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Corporate concern over El Nino hits multi-year high
According to an analysis of company filings and earnings calls, the risk of a particularly strong 'El Nino' and how to adapt have risen to the top of discussions in companies. Scientists say that a "very strong" El Nino event is becoming more likely. It could be one of the most disruptive events since 1950. They also said that the impact of El Nino is difficult to predict, as the man-made global heating compounds the natural phenomenon. Companies are challenged to reduce the impact of crop disruptions and changes in energy demand, and to sometimes even profit from them. AlphaSense, a market intelligence company, reviewed 1,443 corporate documents and conference calls from May 1 to August 4. 478 companies mentioned weather phenomena in these documents. 316 companies made mentions during the calls - the highest number since 2019. Companies in the banking, food and chemicals sectors are leading this trend. They focus more on the scope of their exposure, and contingency plans, than they do on a precise estimate of how it will affect sales, earnings, or cash flow. Nearly 900 documents were mentioned by Indian companies, which heavily depend on monsoon rain. This is nearly ten times more than the number of mentions from U.S. based firms. The Philippines, Malaysia, and Brazil followed. Climate change is fueling warmer, drier and more erratic weather conditions, making predictions more difficult, both from a scientific and business perspective. She said that clients are increasingly focused on risk and preparedness, with the firm helping them to stress-test their supply chains. Dartmouth College's study of 2023 found that previous El Ninos had a negative impact on the economy, with losses for 1982-83, 1997-98 and the two events in between being $4.1 trillion and $5 trillion respectively over the next five years. INCREASED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE Juan Carlos Ortiz said, in a July 31, earnings call, that Compania de Mines Buenaventura, a Peruvian mining company, had added $12 million to their capital expenditure plan, to cover El Nino related risks. He added that each mine's safety committee has mapped out the flood risks and will spend their share of extra money on preparation, such as increasing pumping capacities. Bikash Pradosad, Chief Financial Officer of UPL Limited in India, said on a 3 August earnings call that delays in plantings both in India and Europe would push some demand to 'later quarters. Shrikant Kanhere is the chief executive officer of AWL Agri Business Limited. One of India's biggest consumer goods companies. He said El Nino was a "serious concern" and that rural sales could be at risk if agricultural disruptions reduced people's income. Climate Monitor reported that on August 10th, parts of India had already reached temperatures 8 to 9 degrees Celsius higher than the 1961-1990 average. The average temperature in Asia was 3.9 degrees Celsius higher. El Nino is a positive development for some. AES, a U.S.-based energy company, said that higher spot electricity prices and sales in Colombia increased second-quarter revenue by $67 million. Benjamin Bahr of First Eagle Investments, a U.S.-based portfolio manager, says that the prospect of lower harvests in Asia could also boost farmers in the United States. The U.S. harvest will also be completed, I think. "Those who have crops in storage will have less risk, and could even have a greater upside, if crop prices react positively," said he. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; reporting by Simon Jessop)
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MORNING BID EUROPE-Yen stuck in twilight zone
Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the day will bring for the European and global markets. The yen is back in the intervention area, but it's fate now seems to depend on the Fed's policies and the Bank of Japan's aggressive hikes, after the joint operation with the U.S.' failed to stop the currency's fall. The currency is heading for its worst three-month period, with the rate hovering around 159.37 dollars per U.S. Dollar, moving ever closer to 160, which could trigger another round of intervention. Tokyo spent billions to prop up the yen between April and May, as well as with the U.S. by the end of July. It has said repeatedly that it is ready to step in again if necessary. The yen has remained weak, in part because of the interest rate differential between Japan and the other major currencies. The math is not enough. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is still close to 4,7%, while it's only 2.9% for Japanese government bonds. This gap is large enough to maintain the carry trade, no matter how much money is thrown in defense of the yen. The markets now bet that it's the Bank of Japan who will help stop the yen from falling, and traders are betting on an increased pace of interest rate hikes by a central banking institution which some analysts claim has been relatively slow to increase rates. Mitsuhiro Furusawa, Tokyo's former top currency diplomat said that most market players believed the BOJ would raise rates in September. I agree with him. But what is important is for the central bank to communicate the likelihood of an accelerated pace of rate hikes. A recent run of 'benign U.S. inflation data has also helped the yen, lowering the odds of an imminent rate increase from the Federal Reserve. However, the risk remains as long as a deal to end the conflict in the Middle East is still elusive. European stock futures indicate a modestly increased open, as risk appetite was bolstered this week by economic data which showed little pricing pressure. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Friday. France: July inflation figures * EU: Q2 GDP and employment data (Editing Sonali Paul).
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Copper prices set to fall, ending six-week winning streak due to demand concerns
Copper fell on Friday, and it was expected to snap its longest weekly gains since '2020. It and the wider Industrial Metals Complex were weighed down by worries about 'demand prospects. Benchmark three-month Copper on the??London Metal Exchange fell 0.56% to $14,069 per metric ton at 0300 GMT. After six weeks of gains, the metal will end this week at its current level. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract fell?0.33% to 107460 yuan (15,935.82 USD) per ton. Metal demand is still a concern, despite the fact that inflationary pressures are easing and interest rate fears are fading. Fastmarkets analyst, Andy Farida, said that while the demand for base metals appears resilient, it's still questionable whether it can maintain its strong momentum considering how rapidly asset prices have risen and wage growth has been subdued. The benign U.S. data on inflation has helped to reduce the likelihood that a U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates next month. This could have dampened economic activity and weighed down industrial minerals such as copper. According to CME's FedWatch, interest rate traders have reduced the probability of the Fed raising rates during its September meeting from 44% last Friday. The biggest loser was aluminium on Friday. The price of the light metal at the?LME dropped by 0.98%, ending the week with a 1.42% decrease. The price of alumina on the SHFE fell by 1.28%, ending the week at 0.64% less than when it began. The?Middle East's supply recovery prospects eased some of the expected tightness, and the alumina production scale at Norsk Hydro Alunorte in Brazil began scaling back on Thursday after a temporary output reduction that supported the prices. Zinc fell 0.61% on the LME, while lead dropped?0.26%. Nickel also declined 0.66%. Tin also fell 0.28%. Zinc, lead, nickel, and tin all dropped in price.
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Oil prices rise after US threatens to blockade Iran indefinitely
Prices of oil?inched up on Friday, after the United States threatened an indefinite naval blockade against Iran. This rekindled concerns about supply after the previous session's drop on a weakened outlook for demand as well as a large build-up of U.S. stockpiles. Brent futures were up 1 cent or 0.1% to $87.08 per barrel at 0247 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased 6 cents to $81.00 a bar. Brent rallied for six sessions and WTI rose for five, putting the benchmarks on course for a weekly increase of around 4%. Susan Bell, senior Vice President for Oil Commodity Markets at Rystad, said in a recent note that despite the negative crude stock data the geopolitical background is preventing an even greater?price drop. The?United States warned on Thursday that they could continue a naval blocade against Iran indefinitely, and increase economic pressures on Tehran because ceasefire talks have stalled. In an interview with Newsmax's Rob Schmitt, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said: "Watch this space because more announcements are coming next week. We will?apply?measures that have never been?seen in the history of economic isolate of a nation." The latest U.S. threat comes as Iran restricts traffic through Strait of Hormuz. This area carried 20% of world oil before the conflict. Fuel prices are rising and President Donald Trump is under pressure to end the war, which is unpopular in the United States. Hossein TAEB, recently appointed head Iran's Basj Paramilitary Unit, said that the strait was "under the management of and controlled by the Islamic Republic" according to semi-official Fars News. The prospect of a prolonged war constraining the supply was 'offset' this week by OPEC and International Energy Agency lowering their outlooks on demand growth. Data showed that U.S. crude stocks had increased the most in more than three-and-a half years. Tim Waterer, KCM's chief market analyst, said that the two forces were counterweights. The result is that the market remains stable but has a hard time breaking higher as long as these opposing forces remain in place. The state news agency of the United Arab Emirates, WAM, reported that two vessels of the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, were attacked Thursday while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The incident was condemned by the United Arab Emirates as an Iranian attack. Reporting by Mohi Nrayan from New Delhi, and Helen Clark from Perth. Editing by Sonali P. and Clarence Fernandez.
Mutual aid networks are growing as Trump cuts disaster response.
In November, the Trump panel will offer reform recommendations
The cities would struggle to replace federal funds
Mutual aid networks report a growing response.
By Carey L. Biron
Her neighbors were also in the same situation - if there were any doors left over after the storm of September 2017, which caused 3,000 deaths and $115 billion worth of damage.
Aviles-Vazquez stated that it felt like residents of the U.S. island territory were all alone, but they also had each other.
She said, "I could hate the neighbor but we couldn't get through this if we didn’t help one another."
Over the next few months, residents built mutual assistance networks and cleared roads, checked up on distant neighbors, and stabilised homes.
It became a chain, said Aviles-Vazquez. He is the founder of Agroecology Institut, which empowers farmers.
As climate change impacts have increased, hyperlocal responses and preparedness for natural disasters has gained more attention.
Now that President Donald Trump is looking to reduce the federal government's role in disaster preparation and response, the focus has increased even further.
In his first few days as president, Trump published a critical review of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. A panel will make recommendations for reforms by November.
Experts are worried that the panel may raise the threshold for requesting assistance or eliminate the agency altogether.
FEMA employees warned last month that the cuts were already having "cascading" effects on their agency's response capabilities.
Abigail Jackson, White House spokesperson, said in an email the FEMA's over-sized role had "created a bureaucratic bloat that disincentivised state investment in resilience."
She wrote that Trump wants to empower the "state and local government by enabling them better understand and plan for their citizens' needs, and finally address those needs."
"PERIOD of Uncertainty"
FEMA's purpose today is in large part a result of Hurricane Katrina, which was the most devastating natural disaster to hit the United States, and when the government response was criticized as being too slow. Sara McTarnaghan co-leads the work on climate change and communities at the Urban Institute.
She said that FEMA is now focusing on encouraging local communities to develop pre-disaster preparedness, especially in poorer areas.
She said that the future is uncertain.
"I have a lot of sympathy for the emergency planners at state and local levels. McTarnaghan stated that we are in an uncertain period and it is not clear yet what responsibilities will be required.
McTarnaghan, her colleagues and themselves found that the Trump administration's proposed changes - like halting federal aid for snowstorms- would result in more than 70% disasters no longer receiving presidential emergency declarations.
SBP, an organization that assists communities in recovering from disasters and helps them identify their priorities, develop plans, and raise money, works with local governments across nine states.
Reese May is the chief strategy and innovation office at SBP. She said that many Americans live in small and medium-sized towns where disasters are a possibility. However, their government has limited resources and cannot go to these communities to get information on their risks.
'LIKE WILDFIRE'
Local and volunteer groups report a surge in interest and demand for their services.
Team Rubicon was formed to aid in Haiti after the 2010 earthquake. It has grown from just a few volunteers to over 200,000 today.
Jeff Byard is the senior vice president for operations. "We do lots of hard, physical labor - repairing homes, removing debris," he said. "We want be the last ones out and first ones in."
Byard stated that Rubicon has increased its local work to prepare for funding and capacity gaps in the wake of federal reforms.
KD Chavez is the executive director of Climate Justice Alliance. This national network, which includes about 100 organizations, has said that communities are becoming more organized and recruiting volunteers as a result of natural disasters.
The alliance has developed a "brigade model" to receive disaster warnings directly from the field, and then respond with a surge of resources.
Chavez stated that "one of the deepest benefits of the Alliance is that we mobilize a lot of people on the ground when we're in the waiting period."
Organizers of another national group, Mutual Aid Disaster Relief say that its decentralized community response network includes hundreds of people who are in communication channels and working groups, and thousands of general volunteers.
It has also supported pop-up clinics and community air filter programs.
Devin Ceartas is an organizer with Triangle Mutual Aid in North Carolina, who participated in the Hurricane Helene response last year.
He said that mutual aid spreads like wildfire when people are passionate about it. It's a magical thing. "People truly come alive."
He said that Triangle Mutual Aid saw a surge in interest, with 500 new volunteers joining the organization after new floods hit the state in late July.
Ceartas hopes to take advantage of the momentum and make preparations, such as building crews or getting licensed to operate radio communication equipment.
Ceartas stated that "there's nothing FEMA can provide that's not already available and that people couldn't give each other."
(source: Reuters)