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OPEC March crude oil production falls on Venezuela and Iran amid sanctions
A survey revealed that OPEC's oil production fell in March, ahead of a planned increase, as Nigeria cut deliveries to its domestic refineries, and Iranian and Venezuelan supplies dropped due to renewed U.S. efforts to reduce the flow. According to a survey released on Monday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pumped 26,63 million barrels of oil per day in February, a decrease of 110,000 bpd compared to the total for the month of February. The largest declines were recorded by Nigeria, Iran, and Venezuela. OPEC+, a grouping of OPEC, its allies, and Russia, has begun to unwind the most recent cuts in output. The extent of the increase will partly depend on how President Donald Trump's attempts to restrict supply from Iran and Venezuela affect the price. The survey revealed that in March, Nigeria, Iran, and Venezuela each saw their supply fall by 50,000 bpd. The survey concluded that Nigerian exports were higher than expected, but the supply decreased due to lower deliveries to the Dangote Refinery. According to the survey Nigeria is slightly pumping above its OPEC+ targets, with Gabon being the least compliant. Surveys show that the Iranian oil production fell in February from its previous high of September, which was also the highest level since 2018. The slight drop in output comes at a time when the U.S., under Trump, is redoubling its efforts to pressure Iran's oil imports. The survey also found that Venezuela, which was similarly affected by U.S. actions, saw a decline in exports in December, due to Washington's secondary tariffs, and the cancellation of energy licenses. The survey showed that output in Saudi Arabia and Iraq, two of OPEC's biggest producers, increased slightly. Both nations are pumping lower than their OPEC+ target. The output in the United Arab Emirates met its target. The OPEC secondary sources' survey and data from February show that the UAE and Iraq pump close to their quotas. However, other estimates such as the International Energy Agency suggest they pump significantly more. The survey revealed that there was no increase in production last month. The survey aims at tracking supply on the market. It is based upon data provided by LSEG (a financial group), information from companies that track flow, such as Kpler and information provided from sources within oil companies, OPEC, and consultants. (Additional reporting and editing by Emelia Sithole Matarise)
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Stocks drop; White House denies report of tariff pause
The major stock indexes fell on Monday, but they were still off their lows. This was after the White House denied that President Donald Trump had considered a 90-day suspension of tariffs for every country except China. The U.S. Dollar was higher. Wall Street indexes began the day sharply down but reversed their course after a report stating that White House economist Kevin Hassett stated in an interview, that Trump is considering a 90-day tariff suspension. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 469.46, or 1.2%, to 37.845.40. The S&P 500 declined 28.89, or 0.5%, to 5,046.66. And the Nasdaq Composite was down 3.62, or 0.02, points to 15,584.16. The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 12.42 points or 1.63% to 751.87. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 2.58%. The S&P 500 was on track to confirm a decline earlier amid concerns that Trump would not back down from his tariff plans. The Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in May if the recession risk increases. The futures markets have priced in nearly five quarter-point reductions in U.S. interest rates this year. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) rose by 0.72%, to 103.34. However, the euro fell 0.36%, to $1.0919. The dollar gained 0.48% against the Japanese yen to reach 147.64.
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Sefcovic: EU will target imports worth less than EUR26 billion from the U.S.
After taking into account the remarks of member states, EU Trade Commissioner Maros SEFCIOVIC told reporters that the countermeasures taken by the European Union against a list U.S. steel and aluminum imports as a response to Trump's administration's tariffs on these products will amount to less than 28.46 billion euros ($28.46billion) after taking into consideration their remarks. We are talking 26 billion euro when it comes to steel and aluminum, as well as derivatives (...). The list will be finalized tonight (...), but I can assure you that the amount won't reach 26 billion euros because we have listened very carefully to all of our member states," said he to reporters. The EU 27 nations will be hit with 25% tariffs on imports of steel, aluminium, and cars as part of the U.S. Administration's tariff plan. Sefcovic said, "We wanted to ensure that the burden was evenly distributed among all members." Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, spoke earlier in the day Hold a call On Monday, he met with representatives of the metals industry and will speak to the automotive sector later about how to deal with U.S. Tariffs. ($1 = 0.9137 euro) (Reporting and writing by Philip Blenkinsop, GV De Clercq, Editing by Benoit van Overstraeten).
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Key EU legislator says 90% emission reduction is too ambitious for 2040 climate goals
Peter Liese is a senior member of European Parliament who believes that the European Union's climate goal to reduce net emissions by 90% by 2040 was overly ambitious. The bloc should lower the target for domestic industries. Liese is a senior EU legislator in the influential European People's Party, the largest lawmaker group of the European Parliament. He said that the group's position was still being developed, but he thought a 90% target would be too burdensome for industries. In an interview, he stated that "Many of the people, especially in Council and Parliament see 90% as ambitious. I would even say too ambitious." "We really think when the 90% is implemented without any flexibility, then it will lead to de-industrialisation." Reports earlier Monday said that the European Commission was drafting a proposal to set the EU's climate target for 2040. It is also considering a softer goal than its previous plan of cutting EU emissions by 90 percent to appease governments and legislators who are concerned about the costs for businesses. Liese is EPP's senior member of parliament for climate policy. The EPP controls 188 out of the 720 seats at the European Parliament. This is crucial for forming the majority required to pass the EU's climate target 2040. The independent climate scientists of the EU have recommended that a goal of reducing emissions by 90% to 95% is achievable. The EU has a new topic on its political agenda: helping European industries struggling with cheaper imports from the US and U.S. Tariffs. Liese suggested that a 90% overall target, which would set a lower target for domestic industry and allow countries to purchase international carbon credits to cover the remainder "could provide a solution". Liese said that the EU must ensure that these credits are of high environmental benefit. According to sources, the Commission is examining this option. Credit-generating projects that claimed to deliver climate benefits have been found to be unable. Liese said that a 85% target for 2040 would still be ambitious. The European Conservatives and Reformists, as well as Socialists and Greens, have been against it. (Reporting and Editing by Bernadettebaum)
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Gold reserves in London vaults rose in March, according to LBMA
London Bullion Market Association said that the gold in London vaults at the end March totalled 8,488 metric tonnes, an increase of 0.1% over the previous month. Outflows from London into New York slowed after the dislocation. Last week, the premium between London gold spot prices and most active Comex futures contracts on Comex decreased after Washington exempted precious metals from U.S. import duties. Market players increased their gold deliveries to the U.S. in order to protect themselves against Washington's possible imposition of tariffs on the import of the metal between December and March. Comex gold stock levels are at record heights, after increasing by $80 billion in the last few months since Donald Trump announced that he would impose tariffs against imports from Canada or Mexico. Additional stocks were sourced from Switzerland and London, which is the largest OTC gold trading hub in the world. This reduced liquidity on the London market. The London bullion markets were compelled to borrow gold from the central banks that store their bullion at the Bank of England vaults. This created a long queue of people waiting to receive the metal. "While gold stocks at London's commercial vaults increased this month, stocks in Bank of England decreased by a similar rate to February," LBMA reported. Sources familiar with the situation told us last week that the waiting period to remove gold from the BoE vaults was reduced to 2-3 weeks by late March, compared to 4-6 weeks during January. After a sharp rise in January and February, the gold lease rates in London have returned to normal in late March. LBMA reported that there were 22,127 tonnes of silver in storage for March, a drop of 1.5% compared to February. The decrease in silver held by the LBMA slowed down from 4.5% in February. (Reporting and editing by Tomasz Janovski and Susan Fenton.
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India's Titan reports a 25% increase in revenue for the fourth quarter due to surging gold prices
Titan Company, an Indian jeweller and timepiece maker, said Monday that it expects to see a 25% rise in its fourth quarter revenue. This represents a higher growth rate than the same period last year, thanks to the rising gold price. Gold's price has increased by about 15% in the past year. This is due to the escalating geopolitical risks and uncertainty over U.S. Tariff policy. It is seen as an insurance against these risks. Even though the gold price has risen, Indians of affluence have continued to spend lavishly on wedding ornaments and gold as an investment. This is despite middle-class Indians cutting back on their discretionary spending. In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Titan said that its jewellery division, which represents about 90% of the total revenue, is dominated by plain gold coins and jewellery, reflecting the strong preference consumers have for this precious metal. Sales of gold coins and plain jewellery are expected to be up 65% and 27% respectively. Titan's revenues grew by 17% last year in the fourth quarter. The company also saw an increase of 19% in its domestic jewellery business. The company's watches division, which represents 7% of its total revenue, and includes brands such as Fastrack and Sonata products, has reportedly grown by 22%. (Reporting from Shivani Tanna, Bengaluru. Editing by Vijay Kishore.)
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Germany's biggest steelmakers demand swift implementation of EU Action Plan
Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe and Salzgitter called on Monday for the EU Commission to implement its action plan as quickly as possible in order to protect the steel sector from the tariffs imposed by U.S. president Donald Trump. In a recent statement, Gunnar Gröbler, CEO at Salzgitter, Germany’s second largest steelmaker, said that Europe must not remain defenseless against the growing pressure of imports. Groebler stated that the EU must act with decisiveness while keeping the dialogue open with the U.S. TKSE, Germany’s largest steelmaker said that the plan is an “important impetus” to strengthen and decarbonise the sector's competitiveness. Dennis Grimm said in a press release that the "current geopolitical environment" made it all the more important to implement this plan. He said that the introduction of minimum binding quotas on "European Content" in public and private procurement should also be highlighted to strengthen domestic markets. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, spoke with representatives from the metals sector on Monday. She then addressed the automotive industry. The calls were made to collect information for future countermeasures, beyond Brussels' response to Washington's new steel tariffs. This will be voted later this week. Import tariffs of 25% on steel, aluminium and automobiles are imposed by the EU27.
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India will not raise retail petrol and diesel prices despite tax increases
Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri announced that India raised the excise tax on petrol and diesel on Monday without passing higher costs on to consumers. This would increase government tax collections amid falling oil prices worldwide. Puri, at a recent press conference, said that the increase in excise taxes would be absorbed and not passed on to consumers. He said that higher tax collections from state-owned fuel retailers and private fuel retailers could help New Delhi partially compensate state companies who suffered a revenue loss in 2024/25 of 413.80 trillion rupees (4.8 billion dollars) on sales of local cooking gas below market prices. From April 8, the government increased the excise tax on a litre each of petrol and diesel, bringing the effective tax up to 13 and 10 rupees. Oil secretary Pankaj Jain stated that Indian refiners sell 160 billion litres per year of petrol and diesel. This means the government will earn at least 320 million rupees. The global oil price fell by nearly 4% Monday, as escalating tensions in trade between the United States (US) and China stoked concerns about a possible recession which would lower demand for crude. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is preparing to increase supply. Brent and WTI benchmarks have both fallen to their lowest levels since April 2021. Puri said that, if the global oil price remains at the current level, "we'll have enough headroom to lower the prices of gasoline and diesel". India also increased the retail price of a 14,2 kilogram cooking gas container by 50 rupees. Jain said that the latest rise in the price of cooking gas will help companies recover current revenue losses. The oil ministry will also seek assistance from the finance department to offset the dues for last year. The state refiners, including Indian Oil Corp., Hindustan Petroleum Corp., and Bharat Petroleum (which own 66% and 90% respectively of India's 5,14 million barrels of refining capacity per day and 95,000 retail fuel outlets) have announced that they will not increase the prices of petrol or diesel. Reliance Industries Ltd. and Nayara Energy, private refiners, hold the rest. Prashant Vashisth is senior vice-president at rating agency ICRA. He said that despite the increase in excise duties, oil marketing companies' marketing margins are expected to be healthy due to the recent significant drop in crude oil prices.
The side effects of the morning bid in Europe-Tariff medicines
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.
The Asian stock markets are once again in a rout as President Trump refuses to back down from his tariff plans, despite the conflagration of wealth that has engulfed equity markets.
Investors thought that the threat of losing trillions of dollar would cause Trump to reconsider or shake his aides. But he appears to believe this harsh medicine is going help him in the end. Bill Ackman, a billionaire fund manager who supported Trump's presidential run, said the tariffs would be an "economic winter" for the entire world.
China's blue chips fell almost 7% and the Nikkei index lost another 6%, despite the talk of Beijing stepping in to help with stimulus measures.
Trump's high tariffs have caused a drop of almost 10% in Taiwan's stock market after a long break. Trump's levies are threatening the supply chains on which so many businesses rely. Taiwan's policymakers took action to stop short selling, and circuit breakers in many markets were tripped.
Dealers became increasingly worried that the market losses would force investors into selling profitable assets to cover margin calls. This could lead to a fire sale.
JPMorgan sees 60% probability of U.S. recession, and Fed rate reductions from June until next January. The funds rate will be around 3%. The futures markets also moved in the same direction, with the December Fed Funds contract rising by an astounding 30 basis points this morning before reducing it to 16 ticks.
The markets even suggest that the Fed may ease up to May, despite Powell's repeated statement last week that it was not in a hurry to act.
It's understandable that he is hesitant, given the fact that tariffs will increase prices for everything from food to cars. The U.S. consumer price report for March this week is unlikely to reflect the full impact of tariffs, but it won't be long.
Trump said that many countries are looking for deals to ease tariff pain. The "reciprocal rates" chosen by the U.S. were higher than levies imposed in most other countries, which makes it difficult for them to make deals that are "beautiful".
China is ready to fight in part because they see an opportunity to replace the U.S. as the trusted trade partner. When the trade ministers of the region meet on Monday, there could be further hints about EU reprisals.
This is all happening as U.S. earnings are due to begin with major banks this Friday. It will take a brave CEO to express anything other than caution regarding the outlook for sales and profits.
Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact
Sentix investor's confidence, German industrial production
- Appearances of ECB Board member Piero Cilpollone, and Fed Governor Kugler
(source: Reuters)