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Gold and stocks rise as investors wait for Trump tariff clarity

The global stock market rose on Tuesday, following Wall Street’s overnight gains. Gold reached a record high and Treasury yields dropped as markets waited for details about U.S. president Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.

The Japanese yen and Swiss franc held steady as demand for traditional safe-haven assets increased.

The risk-sensitive Australian Dollar also rebounded, after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged, as expected, while warning of a "pronounced" uncertainty in the global economy.

Investors anxiously await April 2, the day Trump has called "Liberation Day", where he promises to reveal a massive tariff plan.

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative published its annual report on Foreign Trade Barriers on Monday. It contained scores of policies and regulations of other countries that it considers as trade barriers.

It was not clear how Trump's tariff reciprocity plans would be affected by the 397-page document.

After the day before, European stocks started stronger, especially in assets that were highly susceptible to U.S. Tariffs. Early trading saw the index rise 0.7%, after rising 5.1% over the first three-months of the year. Pharma and technology stocks led the way.

"We still do not know the countries that will be affected by the tariffs and at what rate. The administration may not yet have a final plan in place," said Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank.

Uncertainty has reached a high level. In the last few days, volatility measures for stock, bonds and currencies have increased sharply, reflecting the difficulty of trading in the unknown.

S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% on Monday but the S&P 500 rose 0.55%, ending a losing streak of three days.

Tony Sycamore is an analyst with IG. He said: "It's possible that a large portion of the rebound last night in key Wall Street indices could be attributed to rebalancing flows at month and quarter ends, as well short covering before Trump's Liberation Day. There's considerable uncertainty as to what will happen next."

The U.S. stock markets are priced to reflect a slower growth rate and lower earnings. They are not priced for recession. If the U.S. enters a recession, U.S. stocks could easily drop another 10%.

Gold reached a new record for the fourth consecutive session. It now stands at $3,148.88 an ounce.

Kyle Rodda is a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com. He said that, in addition to the general risk aversion of investors, they are increasing their allocations to gold, as the Trump administration’s trade policy threatens the dollar’s special reserve status.

The fundamentals of gold remain strong.

DOLLAR UNDER SUBSTRESS

As prices rose on Tuesday, yields on 10-year benchmark notes fell nearly 6 basis points, to 4.188%.

The dollar was held in check by the strong Swiss franc, which strengthened the dollar to 0.883 Swiss francs, a 0.1% drop.

The dollar has been under pressure for the past nine years due to investor caution. Its performance in the first quarter of this year against a basket currency was its worst in nearly four years.

The Aussie fell from its day-highs, trading 0.1% lower to $0.6245. The RBA kept rates at 4.1% after cutting them by a quarter-point in February, for the first cut in four years.

In its statement, the RBA noted that "Geopolitical uncertainty is also pronounced", adding that U.S. Tariffs have an impact on global confidence.

Matt Simpson, senior analyst at City Index, said that the RBA's announcement suggests it is inching toward its next cut but not in a hurry to announce one.

Bitcoin increased by 1.2%, to $83,040.

The oil prices continued to rise, continuing Monday's 2% increase. Brent crude was 0.1% higher at $74.79 per barrel while U.S. Crude rose 0.1% to 71.52.

Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs against Iran and Russian crude oil at the weekend. He warned Iran that he would bomb the country if it did not reach an agreement with Washington on its nuclear program. Kevin Buckland, Himani Sarkar and Kim Coghill edited the article.

(source: Reuters)