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The bond market continues to sell off after a seismic shift in German spending

The bond market continues to sell off after a seismic shift in German spending

The world financial markets were still in a phase of radical readjustment on Thursday, after U.S. president Donald Trump's shaking up of the transatlantic relations prompted a half-a trillion-euro seismic shift in German infrastructure and defense spending.

The European Central Bank is preparing to lower its interest rates later.

Normaly, that would be enough to grab the attention of traders. This was the most important thing to remember, even though the global bond market is still in full swing. The 10-year German Bund yield has seen its largest increase since the 1990s.

Bund yields are now up by 10 basis points to 2.88% after reaching as high as 2.929 on Wednesday. The euro rested at a four-month high, while European stocks took a break after a 10% rise this year.

Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank said that the Bund yield spike on Wednesday was the largest move since German unification.

This is a seismic change of epic proportions, and only nimble and fast-money investors have responded thus far.

Overnight, the global implications became apparent.

The yield on Japan's 10-year bond, a key factor in the cost of borrowing worldwide, has reached a 16-year high. In addition, the yield on U.S. Treasury notes 10-years also rose for a 3rd day despite increasing bets that Federal Reserve rates will continue to fall.

The focus remained on the global economic war, after Tuesday's 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports were imposed along with new duties on Chinese products.

On Wednesday, however, the White House announced that President Trump will exempt Mexican and Canadian automakers from their respective countries' tariffs for a month so long as they comply with existing free-trade rules.

This had boosted U.S. stock prices and bolstered Asian markets. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose 1.25% while Tokyo's Nikkei closed 0.8% higher.

China's blue chip index grew by 1.4%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index soared over 3% and reached its highest level in three years. The Hang Seng has risen by 20% this year and is the best-performing major stock market worldwide.

RESPONSE OF THE ECB

After the massive rearmament campaign in Germany and Europe, the ECB was expected to cut interest rates.

The euro remained steady at $1.08, just below the four-month high it reached in early Asian trading. The euro is expected to rise by more than 4% in the coming week, which would be its best performance since March 2009.

Julien Lafargue is the chief market strategist of Barclays Private Bank. He said that this (ECB meeting) could be very exciting given the current circumstances.

Lafargue stated that the bank is close to reaching the "neutral" interest rate level after recent reductions. "Christine Lagarde, will be asked how the ECB plans to respond," Lafargue added, to the European increase in defense spending.

Gold prices in commodities were unchanged at $2,921.39 an ounce, as traders awaited the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report on Friday to get hints on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.

The oil prices have been trying to recover after stumbling this week. This was due to a bigger than expected increase in U.S. crude stock, OPEC+'s plans to boost output, and U.S. Tariffs on important oil supplies.

Brent futures hovered near a three-year low reached on Wednesday.

(source: Reuters)