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Trump tariffs cause trade war, stocks fall and dollar soar

Asian stock markets fell on Monday, and U.S. equities futures were sharply lower as a result of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China. This sparked fears of a global trade war that could harm the growth in the world.

The U.S. Dollar soared to a new record high in offshore trading against the Chinese Yuan, the strongest level since 2003 versus Canada's currency, and the highest since 2022 against Mexico's Peso.

Japan's Nikkei average fell as much as 2,3% in the opening minutes of trading. Australia's benchmark, which is often used as a proxy to Chinese markets, also dropped more than 2%.

Hong Kong shares open later today, while mainland markets are closed until Wednesday due to Lunar New Year holiday.

Trump levied duties on Canada, Mexico, and China at the weekend as he threatened to do last month. He said the measures were necessary to fight illegal immigration and drug trafficking.

Canada, Mexico and China immediately pledged retaliatory actions. China also said that it would challenge Trump’s tariffs at the World Trade Organization.

Three executive orders containing tariffs are set to come into effect at 12:01 am. Tuesday, ET (0501 GMT).

Capital Economics' Paul Ashworth said that Trump's first move could be the beginning of a global trade war, and a spike in U.S. prices would be "even faster and larger than what we originally expected."

Greg Daco, chief economist at EY, has developed a model to gauge the economic impact of Trump’s tariff plan. It suggests that it will reduce U.S. GDP by 1.5 percentage points in 2018, throw Canada and Mexico into a recession and bring about "stagflation".

Barclays strategists estimated previously that tariffs would create a drag of 2.8% on S&P 500 earnings, including projected fallouts from retaliatory actions from the target countries.

S&P futures fell 1.7% after the cash index lost 0.5% on Friday. The White House reiterated Trump’s intention to announce tariffs Saturday. Nasdaq's futures fell 2.5% after Friday's loss of 0.3% for the cash index.

Early in Asia morning, the U.S. Dollar advanced 0.7% on the offshore market to 7,2552 yuan. It had earlier reached a record high of 7,3765 yuan. Due to the holidays, there will be no onshore official trading.

The U.S. dollar rose 2.3% to 21,15 Mexican pesos, crossing the 21-peso mark for the first since July 2022. It also rose 1.4% to C$1.4755, the highest level since 2003.

The euro fell as much as 2,3% to $1.0125, the lowest level seen since November 2022. Trump could also be targeting Europe with his tariffs.

The yen of Japan was a more resilient currency, losing only 0.2% and reaching 155.53 dollars.

Cryptocurrency bitcoin fell as much as 5.8%, to a low of $96,191.39.

Brent crude futures rose 1%, to $76.40 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 2.4%.

(source: Reuters)