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MORNING BID EUROPE-Risk-wary markets count down to payrolls

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella Qiu

Threat belief took a hit in Asia on Friday from restored political rumblings in South Korea, rattling investors' nerves as they awaited an important U.S. nonfarm payrolls report that could alter the chances of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month.

As soon as markets captured word that there might be another martial law declaration in South Korea, heavy selling hammered the Korean won and the Seoul share market. The won sank by as much as 1%, the KOSPI dived 1.8% at one point and the Australian dollar, a barometer of risk cravings, was down 0.5%.

South Korean authorities fasted to act. Dealerships said the foreign exchange regulator is believed to have actually sold U.S. dollars to restrict the decline in the won. That would not be unexpected, considering that the authorities have actually promised endless liquidity to stabilise markets which strategy has so far been working.

The nation's special warfare commander likewise came out to say he would decline any brand-new order for martial law, soothing nerves somewhat.

While keeping a wary eye on South Korea, the market's main attention is fixed on U.S. payrolls data due for release later on Friday. Projections are centred on a rise of 200,000 tasks in November, rebounding from soft numbers in October that reflected the effect of hurricanes and strikes. The joblessness rate likely edged up to 4.2% from 4.1%.

Markets are priced for a Goldilocks outcome: neither so strong that it would threaten the prospects of a rate cut, nor so soft that it would stir up concerns about the economy.

Futures suggest a 70% chance of a rate cut by the Fed on Dec. 18, suggesting the market is vulnerable to a hot jobs report, especially after recent soft information pushed the futures to cost in an extra quarter point cut for 2025.

Dollar bulls were also cautious of a sharp pull-back in tasks, which could increase the outlook for rate cuts and wrong-foot a. market that is overwhelmingly long the U.S. currency.

Even the rally in Bitcoin is showing indications of tiredness after. crossing the $100,000 level for the very first time ever.

It pulled back as far as $92,092 before steadying at $97,444. on Friday, up 0.4% for the day and supported by Trump's. visit of former PayPal executive David Sacks to be his. White Home artificial intelligence and crypto czar.

Europe is looking ahead to a lower open with some secondary. data due. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are down 0.4% and FTSE. futures are 0.1% lower. U.S. stock futures are a. fraction easier.

In other news, Trump stated he had actually selected previous Senator David. Perdue to be ambassador to China, tapping a previous political leader. with service experience to help guide relations riven by deep. skepticism and trade tensions.

Secret developments that might affect markets on Friday:

-- Germany commercial output

-- UK Halifax house prices

-- Eurozone revised GDP for Q3

-- U.S. non farm payrolls for Nov

(source: Reuters)