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Production kicks off jobs-packed week

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and worldwide markets by Amanda Cooper.

Today marks the start of a brand-new week, a brand-new month, a new quarter and a new set of information to get investors going. Friday's. personal consumption expenses cost (PCE) index landed when. most markets were closed, making this the very first genuine opportunity to. absorb the numbers.

The PCE index rose at a yearly rate of 2.5% in February, up. from 2.4% the month previously. The number excluding unpredictable food. and energy prices - the Federal Reserve's preferred procedure -. increased 0.3% on a month-to-month basis, slightly faster than Chair. Jerome Powell had actually prepared for when he said recently that core. inflation would be well listed below 0.3% in February.

However, after the numbers on Friday, Powell said the latest. data was along the lines of what we wish to see.

The first week of the month is always loaded with key jobs. data, culminating in Friday's non-farm payrolls report. After a. hit Q1 for markets, a three-rate-cut soft landing. seems as good as baked into the cake as far as equity. investors are worried. Inflation is behaving, U.S. growth is. powering ahead and it would appear a given that the economy is. generating tasks quickly enough to support consumer spending.

The focus, then, on today's selection of tasks market information. will likely fall on any indicators of wage pressure - something. over which the Federal Reserve has little, to no, influence.

Today's study of March factory activity from the Institute. for Supply Management is expected to show manufacturing. contracted for a 17th straight month - the longest stretch considering that. August 2000, after the dot com bubble burst and pushed the. economy into recession.

That said, the index is anticipated to have increased to 48.4, from. February's 47.8, its greatest since December 2022, according to a. poll of economic experts.

The rates paid component is expected to have increased to 52.6,. from 52.5 the previous month, showing the choice up in the expense. of things like fuel and food that pressed the more comprehensive. producer cost index up by more than expected in March.

Of more interest could be the work sub-index, which. last month can be found in at 45.9. Manufacturing just makes up a small. part of job development - less than 10% of all staff members on. non-farm payrolls work in the factory sector, compared to over. a quarter 50 years ago.

But the study might provide a flavour of the overall pattern in. the jobs market.

Tuesday's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS),. which sets out hirings and shootings, is most likely to provide a better. sense of how tight the employment market is and what investors. might expect to see in regards to average wage growth in Friday's. NFPs.

Key advancements that should provide more instructions to U.S. markets later on Monday:

* March ISM making study

* Three- and six-month Treasury bill auctions

(source: Reuters)