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MORNING BID EUROPE - The art of using tariffs to grab headlines

Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.

The tariffs seem to be a convenient way for Trump to dominate the news cycle. He is not interested in months of complex, tortuous trade negotiations aimed at a mutually beneficial outcome. Why would you do that, when you could tweet a 30% threat of tariffs on a Saturday morning to dominate the news for a whole weekend?

Assuming that this is a negotiation tactic primarily, the markets in Asia have only eased modestly. S&P futures are down about 0.4%, while most regional indexes are only marginally lower.

The euro has lost a small amount, but European futures are down by 0.7%. It's difficult to imagine how Brussels will ever be able to satisfy Trump's requests, partly because it isn't clear what Trump wants. The EU tariffs against U.S. products are so small that there is not much to be cut. However, granting exemptions to domestic taxes and regulation is politically risky.

The market's stoic response could also be a clever ruse. Investors believe Trump will be willing to ease up on tariffs if the need arises. Trump may think that the markets are on his side now, with U.S. stock prices at record highs, and bond yields down from their peak.

It seems that, at any rate the U.S. effective tariff rate will be similar to the Smoot-Hawley levy that so greatly contributed to the Great Depression. We'll see if Trump was right and that the majority of professional economics were wrong.

The U.S. deficit in trade is not yet solved. China reported today that its trade surplus with the U.S. increased by 48% to nearly $27 billion in June, and its exports exceeded forecasts.

Trump found time to continue his feud against Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He said it would be a "great thing" for Powell to step down, eight years after Trump nominated Powell.

Kevin Hassett, White House economist adviser, warned Trump over the weekend that renovation costs overruns at Washington's Fed headquarters could be grounds for firing Powell.

Analysts believe that a Trump nominee for Fed chief will do what he wants by aggressively reducing interest rates, but whether the other FOMC members would agree with this assumption is still in question.

Investors will likely demand compensation to compensate for the increased risk of inflation. This is what happened in Turkey.

Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact

Piero Cipollone, ECB Board member, appears before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of European Parliament

(source: Reuters)