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Russell: China's response to Trump tariffs is likely to change coking coal prices and flows.

Russell: China's response to Trump tariffs is likely to change coking coal prices and flows.

The impact of China's retaliatory duties on U.S. energy exports will be felt most strongly in the seaborne coal market.

Beijing imposed an import tariff of 15% on U.S. coal, liquefied gas (LNG), and crude oil on 4 February after U.S. president Donald Trump imposed an additional 10% tax on all imports.

Tariffs could kill energy trade between China and the United States. The United States is the biggest exporter of LNG, but ranks fourth for coal and crude oil.

The U.S. shares of China's crude oil and LNG imports are small at around 2% each, so the global markets should be able adjust quickly and easily.

The story is different for metallurgical coking coal, which is also called coking coal. It's the primary fuel used to produce steel.

According to Kpler commodity analysts, China's total seaborne coking coal imports in 2024 were 43.02 millions metric tons, with the United States providing 5.02 million, or an 11.7% share.

The United States is the fourth largest supplier of seaborne coal to China. This was behind Australia, with 15.91 millions tons, Russia, with 11.68 millions, and Canada, with 7.79.

The steelmakers in China will need to find alternatives if the new tariffs make U.S. coal uncompetitive.

The U.S. exporters of coking coal could, of course, choose to reduce the price to remain in the China market. However, they would be more inclined to try to sell their cargoes to other buyers, including India, Japan, and South Korea, who are the top importers.

What is the most likely place that China will be able source coking coal in order to replace U.S. supply, assuming its demand for 2025 stays constant from 2024?

The coal could be delivered to the wrong places by overland trucks and trains, as seaborne coal is largely used for coastal steel plants.

It is also doubtful if Russia can increase its production and rail capacity enough to replace U.S. coal.

The only other options are Australia and Canada, both of which have the capacity to meet China's demands.

This may cost more, however, because Chinese steel producers may be forced to offer higher prices to Australian and Canadian miner to divert their supply from other countries.

AUSTRALIA PRECEEDENT

China's informal ban on Australian coal mid-2020 resulted almost in a complete cessation of imports, but prices for seaborne grades rose.

China was forced to pay an additional premium for coal from countries such as Indonesia, the United States and Canada.

China will have to compete with Indian buyers if it wants to replace U.S. coal with Australian and Canadian cargoes.

According to Kpler, India will be the largest coking coal importer in the world in 2024. It is expected to take in 67,6 million tons.

Australia was India's largest supplier, with 34,88 million tons, just over half of the total. Russia came in second with 14,74 million, and the United States was third with 8,4 million.

It is logical that China would want to stop buying coking coal from the United States by increasing its purchases from Australia. India, on the other hand, should buy less from Australia and take more from America.

It is possible, but it will come with a premium price, at least at first.

The price of seaborne coking coal has been falling for the past 16 months. Australian benchmark contracts traded in Singapore went from $363 per ton at mid-October to $188 by February 14, which is a 48.2% drop.

Argus, a commodity reporting agency, assessed U.S. low volatile coking coal in east coast ports at $187.50 per ton on 13 February. This was the same as the Australian benchmark.

It's possible that Australian coking coal prices will be higher than their U.S. counterparts if Chinese buyers switch to buying more Australian or Canadian coking. This is especially true if U.S. producers are scrambling to find alternative buyers for cargoes destined for China.

These are the views of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)