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Mike Dolan's market thoughts for midweek: Russia's Achilles' heel, stockpickers' territory and Europe's issue of self-esteem

Long/short hedge fund results prove that fundamentals are still important, and Europe continues underestimating its global power.

In this midweek article, I will highlight some key stories that caught me eye?this week and may have been lost in the daily flood of market news.

The pump doesn't work

The late U.S. John McCain said in 2014 that "Russia is just a gas station posing as a nation." If that's the case, reports of Russia's people running out of fuel in the 4.5 year long war with Ukraine seem both absurd and very significant.

The attacks on Russia's infrastructure have led to fuel rationing and rising prices, as well as a growing discontent among the public. Now, Russia is forced to import fuels from India and Kazakhstan.

Gallup, a pollster, said that Russians were more pessimistic than ever before about their economy, according to a study published by the company last month.

However, the fuel shortage is not yet reducing Russia's military threat. The Russian military responded harshly to the repeated Ukrainian attacks on their energy hubs. It began with one of the largest bombardments on Kyiv in the war, which took place last Thursday. This was followed by a second attack on Ukraine’s capital Monday.

Will the Russians' anger over fuel shortages have an impact on the war? Or will it worsen it? Will it increase the risks of more deaths and damage to energy infrastructure in the region?

Investors may have become numb to the conflict because it has been so long, but at some point, it will end. And the length of time still has huge implications for European security, defence, and energy spending.

Wheat and Chaf

The market rally may not be all about "fear of losing out" (FOMO). Goldman Sachs reported on Thursday that fundamental long-short hedge funds -- which use company-by-company analyses to assess financial health -- have just recorded their best quarterly returns since the bank started tracking them. They achieved a gain of 18%.

It's not surprising, if you consider that certain chip stocks have doubled in value during the last quarter. Their forward earnings projections barely changed as the surge in share prices was matched by the revenue forecasts. Some chip and megacap shares ended the quarter in red, but not all stocks moved upwards. The "Magnificent 7" group ended the second half of the year in negative territory.

Short sellers are still on the prowl. Michael Burry is one of the most famous short sellers who has been betting against AI stocks, chipmakers and SpaceX.

The shops that focused on the fundamentals were able to separate the wheat from chaff in a quarter marked by massive changes in energy prices, Fed expectations, and geopolitical conflict. Let's hope they can continue this trend.

PUNCHING UNDER ITS WEIGHT

The NATO summit this week will focus on Europe's precarious situation amid the rise in "geoeconomics", the intersection of industrial, financial, and military policies. In a world of fraying allegiances, rearmament demands and high relative energy costs, Europe faces pressure from both the east and the west, amid an intensifying rivalry between Donald Trump's America, and China.

Europe is facing a slew of threats, including tariff-related protectionionism from the United States and fierce import competition from China. It also faces a huge deficit in technology innovation and rising security risks. The NATO summit will highlight what Europe is doing in order to defend itself, and whether it would be credible if Washington were withdrawing from the transatlantic alliance.

Beatrice Weder Di Mauro is the president of the Centre for Economic Policy Research. She wrote in the IMF magazine Finance and Development that part of Europe’s?problem lies in the fact that it views itself as a'middle-power' instead of fully recognising and mobilizing its economic and military heft.

She writes that "values without power are frail," adding that "many nations in the world do not fully align with either of?the two rival superpowers, and therefore need a powerful "third pole" capable of projecting strength and serving as a stabilizing and moderating force."

She ends with a strong message. "Europe must acknowledge that it is big, capable and consequential --and act accordingly."

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(source: Reuters)