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US consumer prices continue to rise in April

Consumer prices in the United States?rose rapidly for a second consecutive month in April. This resulted in?the largest annual increase in inflation for nearly three years, and further reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at their current level for some time. The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Labor Department reported on Tuesday that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in April after a 0.9% increase in March. The economists polled had predicted the CPI to rise 0.6%. Estimates varied from a gain of?0.4% to 0.9%. Moderation was largely mechanical after the biggest increase since June 20,22. After the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran in March, oil prices soared?above $100 per barrel. They then fell to high levels again after an early April ceasefire. CPI rose 3.8% in the year to April. This was the largest year-on-year rise since May 2023, and it followed a 3.3% increase in March. Back-to-back high inflation rates will increase political risks for Donald Trump and the Republican Party ahead of November's midterm election. Trump won re-election 2024 largely because he promised to reduce inflation. However, Americans are now less enthused about his economic management and blame him for the high prices at the pumps. Oil prices have risen due to the war, and this has been reflected immediately in higher gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel. Economists expect the second round of effects to be felt over the next few months. The report followed news ?last week of a bigger-than-anticipated increase in nonfarm payrolls in April.

The financial markets anticipate that the U.S. Central bank will keep rates unchanged until 2027. Last month, the Fed, which uses the Personal Consumption Spending?price indices to meet its 2% target for inflation, left its benchmark interest rate between?3.50% and 3.75%. The CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.4% in November. This was partly due to a temporary adjustment of rent measures, after the shutdown of the federal gov't last October prevented data collection.

The BLS divides its rental survey into six panels. The BLS samples each panel?every 6 months, on a rotating schedule. The BLS used carry-forward imputation to make up for missing data, which artificially reduced the rent indexes. The so-called core CPI rose 0.2% in March. Most economists think that the tariffs of Trump are likely to have been passed through. In February, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs were invalid and lowered the effective rate. In April, the core CPI inflation rate increased 2.8% compared to March. Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci, and Chizu Nomiyama edited the report.

(source: Reuters)