Special Report-China floods world with gasoline cars that it cannot sell at home

In just a few short years, China's electric vehicle industry has captured more than half of its domestic market. This has led to a decline in sales for gasoline-powered cars from the once dominant global automakers.

Foreign players were not the only losers. Chinese automakers who had been in business for decades also saw their sales plummet and responded by flooding foreign markets with fossil fuel vehicles that they couldn't sell domestically.

While Western policymakers focused on the threat posed by China's heavily subsidized EVs and protected their markets with tariffs; U.S., European, and South African automakers are facing greater competition from China’s gas-guzzlers from Poland to South Africa, to Uruguay. According to Automobility, China's consultancy, fossil-fuel vehicles account for 76% (or more) of Chinese auto exports. Total annual shipments have increased from 1 million in 2020 to over 6.5 million likely this year. A recent examination revealed that the boom in gasoline exports was driven by the same EV policies and subsidies that destroyed the China businesses for automakers such as Volkswagen, GM, and Nissan. These policies and subsidies underwrote scores of Chinese EV manufacturers and ignited a price war. This phenomenon highlights the impact of Chinese industrial policies, as foreign companies struggle to compete with state-backed firms that are chasing Beijing's goal to dominate key sectors in China and internationally.

Industry and government data indicate that China's gasoline vehicle exports last year - without including EVs or plug-in hybrids – were enough to make the nation the largest auto-exporting country by volume. This report on the global expansion of Chinese automakers is based upon a review and analysis of auto sales data from dozens of countries, as well as interviews with over 30 people. These included executives of 11 Chinese and 2 Western automakers, distributor managers for Chinese brands, and industry researchers.

The Chinese gasoline car influx into emerging and secondary markets is a clash between Beijing's current push for electric vehicles and earlier policies that helped build China's domestic gas-vehicle sector by leveraging the technology of foreign automakers.

State-owned giants SAIC, BAIC and Dongfeng, among others, are the largest exporters. They have historically depended on joint ventures to gain engineering expertise and profits from foreign automakers. In the 1980s, Beijing forced these partnerships as a price for foreign companies to enter China. These joint ventures have seen their sales plummet in recent years, as innovative Chinese EV manufacturers, led by BYD, have risen to prominence. SAIC data shows that SAIC-GM China's annual sales fell from more 1.4 million cars to 435,000 vehicles between 2020 and 2024.

These state-owned automakers are now racking up sales on export markets that used to be the sole domain of foreign automakers, who are also their partners in China. SAIC exports, mainly of its own brands and without GM, soared to over a million dollars last year from just under 400,000 in 2020.

Jelte Vernooij is Dongfeng Central Europe's manager. He said that Dongfeng exported nearly 250,000 cars last year. This was an increase of almost four times in just five years.

Dongfeng has seen its annual global sales fall by one million vehicles, from 2020 to less than two million. This is according to company filings. Vernooij, however, is not worried about Dongfeng’s future because Beijing has backed it.

He said that the fact that we are state-owned was important. "There is no doubt that we will survive."

It's also a fact that gasoline cars sell better than EVs in markets with limited charging infrastructure, like those of Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Africa. Beijing aims for EVs and hybrids to be dominant in the world. In the meantime, Chinese automakers build overseas brands by offering customers what they want.

Chery is China's largest auto exporter. Between 2020 and 2024, its global sales soared from 730,000 to 2.6 millions vehicles. Chery - which is owned by both the state and the private sector - has increased its annual exports in the past five years by about one million units. Its sales are mainly gasoline powered vehicles, accounting for four-fifths. Five other state-owned carmakers, as well as two private automakers, Geely Motor and Great Wall Motor are also among China's top ten exporters. They sell more gasoline cars than electric vehicles.

Two of China's top ten auto exporters are exclusively focused on battery-powered cars. Tesla, the pioneer of electric cars in the United States, is one of them. BYD is the other, and it only sells EVs or plug-in hybrids. BYD has become China's second largest exporter this year, and the country's exports are now dominated by plug-in hybrids. China's gasoline vehicle exports will still exceed 4.3 millions and make up nearly two thirds of the total for this year.

Exports are essential for the growth and profitability of Chinese automakers, according to overseas managers from Chery, Dongfeng, and FAW. Giles Taylor is the global vice president of design at FAW. He believes that some rivals in China are just one product away from bankruptcy.

He said, "China is overpopulated with auto companies." It's on the verge of a dog-eats-dog situation.

Managers said that most brands focus on exporting gasoline cars, because it's easier to sell them in many regions. Nic Thomas, Changan’s European Marketing Director said: "We can fine tune our offering for each market."

The National Development and Reform Commission and other top exporters SAIC and BAIC as well as Geely and Great Wall Motor, and the government economic planner did not provide any comments for this report.

Executives from global automakers have acknowledged that China's rising rivals are a serious threat to their business, but mainly in relation to the innovative and affordable EVs they produce rather than gasoline-powered models. Toyota, Ford Nissan and Hyundai representatives did not make any comments on China's export boom.

Some of the old-timers say they are ready to fight. Alexander Seitz said that he has "no fears of the Chinese."

He said, "I respect them for being competitors." "They are welcome to join us." Volkswagen wants to export more cars made in China overseas to counter the competition from China.

A GM spokesperson referred to comments made by CEO Mary Barra in October, that the company aims "to compete with Chinese competitors" with the "right technology at the right price."

IDLE FACTORIES FUEL SURGE

The government's policies have created an excess of factory capacity for building them, which has led to the rush by Chinese automakers to export gasoline vehicles.

Bill Russo, CEO of Automobility, says that China's rapid EV expansion has idled assembly plants capable of producing 20 million gasoline powered cars per year. These unproductive overheads increase costs and force automakers to use capacity for exports.

Russo stated that "that excess capacity is being directed back to the rest of world".

AlixPartners, a consultancy, predicts that Chinese automakers will increase their annual sales outside China by 4,000,000 vehicles by 2030. This will result in them gaining large market share in South America and the Middle East. They also expect to gain significant market shares throughout Africa, Southeast Asia, South America and the Middle East. Chinese automakers will control 30% of global auto sales in five years, including expected growth in China - the world's biggest car market.

Stephen Dyer is the joint head of AlixPartners China.

Beijing's policies encouraged automakers over the past decade to build new electric vehicle plants instead of converting existing gasoline-vehicle facilities. Reports claim that local governments subsidized the boom in factory construction as they competed with each other to attract EV manufacturers, all for Beijing's economic purposes. Cities and provinces that wanted to show development financed automakers' EV factories at a low cost.

Local governments prepare the land, build the factories and allow companies to "move in" with only a suitcase. Liang Linhe is the chairman of Sany Heavy Trucks, one of China's biggest truck manufacturers.

The result is massive overcapacity. Su Bo, China’s former vice-minister of industry, urged the regulators at a March EV Conference to encourage the conversion of gasoline car factories into battery-powered models. Su Bo, China's former vice minister of industry, urged regulators to promote the conversion of gasoline-car factories into battery-powered models at a March EV conference.

He said that the declining gasoline car sales are "leaving significant capacity underutilized" and "plummeting the sector into an essential survival crisis."

The real battle in autos: Emerging markets

While EV startups were building factories in China, the legacy Chinese automakers searched for new markets for gasoline cars to maintain their underutilized plants.

In Warsaw, Poland on a sunny September day, new SUVs bearing chrome "BEIJING' logos lined up the Plaza dealership. These SUVs were powered by gasoline engines made by BAIC, an automaker owned and operated by the Beijing city government.

BAIC is one of 33 Chinese brands to have announced or launched Poland sales, with many selling exclusively or primarily gasoline-powered cars, according to company announcements. GlobalData's sales figures also show that BAIC was among the first Chinese brands in Poland. Jerzy Przadka is BAIC's Poland Manager. He said that there are so few Chinese midsized SUVs with distinguishable features, and many of them look alike, that Poles cannot tell the difference.

Marcin Slomkowski is the country manager of GAC and Geely at Jameel Motors. He called the new Chinese competitors that have entered Poland a "simple madness" and said local market expertise would be the "key to survival."

Inchcape is a global distributor of autos. Most of the contracts it has signed recently are with Chinese automakers who have entered emerging markets.

Older manufacturers are also joining the global market, as they struggle to meet Beijing's EV development mandates and maintain gasoline-car profit margins. Exports must be tailored to the market, which is usually gasoline cars in emerging economies.

Tait stated that "the model you use with China will not necessarily work in Costa Rica or Peru, Indonesia, Greece, or Indonesia." You have to accept the world for what it is and not as you would like it to be.

Even in more developed economies, Chinese brands are still a major player when it comes to fossil fuel vehicles. Chery sold almost all its cars in Australia with gasoline engines. Only recently has the company begun to offer plug-in hybrid models.

The pragmatism of China's automakers in the engine field created new fronts for their battle to gain market share with foreign competitors. Many automakers have historically concentrated their marketing and engineering efforts on the biggest or wealthiest markets, such as the United States, Europe and China.

In the developing world they focused on cheaper cars with older technology. This has left companies like Stellantis, GM, and VW vulnerable to a flood of cheap Chinese imports with better software and safety features, according to Felipe Munoz of JATO Dynamics, a research firm.

"Legacy automobile manufacturers were sleeping." "Now they are paying for it," said he. "The real fight between Chinese automakers and legacy carmakers does not take place in Europe. It is not taking place in the United States. "It's happening in emerging market countries."

At a September investor's event, Antonio Filosa (CEO of Stellantis) was asked how the company would react to Chinese competitors. He said that Stellantis, which has a market share of 24% in South America and the Middle East, would also follow this model for markets such as Africa and the Middle East, by building cars locally to suit local tastes. Stellantis declined to comment on Filosa’s recent remarks. Faced with increasing Chinese competition, GM announced in August that it would develop South American cars jointly with Hyundai to reduce costs.

CHINA'S AUTO IMPORTS GO TO RUSSIA AND MEXICO China is the world's biggest auto exporter. The United States has essentially banned Chinese brand vehicles through trade barriers aimed at safeguarding national and economic security. GlobalData estimates that Chinese automakers will likely end the year with more than 200,000 sales and a 14% share of the market south of the U.S.-Mexico border where there are few EVs sold.

Legacy brands like Fiat, Ford, and Chevrolet are losing market share. GlobalData predicts that Chevrolet Mexico sales will be 52,231 this year. This is a decrease of more than 24% from 2023. Mexico announced in September that it would increase tariffs on Chinese vehicles from 20% to 50%. The government claimed this would protect jobs, but analysts argued the move was an attempt to appease Washington. U.S. officials pressured Mexico to limit trade with China in order to prevent China from using Mexico as an "backdoor" to avoid U.S. tariffs. Analysts called the move a tactic to placate Washington.

Chinese automakers are also facing political challenges in Russia. Mexico became China's largest auto-export destination this year after Moscow increased fees on Chinese imports. GlobalData reports that Russia increased the tax after China overflowed its market. According to GlobalData, China's share grew from 21% in 2020 to 64% or approximately 900,000. These fees have slashed Chinese imports to Russia.

Requests for comments on Chinese auto imports from the governments of Russia and Mexico were not answered.

South Africa, like Russia and Mexico, has an industry at home to protect. This includes global automakers that have a large footprint in manufacturing. The government has encouraged Chinese automakers in South Africa to build factories, while threatening to impose tariffs on cheap imports.

According to JATO Dynamics, Chinese automakers controlled 16% of the South African car market during the first half. This is up from 10% a few years ago. The Chinese sold almost 30,000 gasoline cars - but only 11 electric vehicles.

GlobalData reports that Toyota had the largest South Africa sales decline among traditional automakers, with a drop of almost 15%, or 93,805 cars.

Changan, a state-owned company, is launching five new vehicles in South Africa. This includes two battery-powered models. However, the best-seller, according to Changan, will be its diesel-powered pickup truck, or "bakkie", as it's known locally.

Marinus Venter who manages Changan for Jameel Motors, said that the EV market would take longer.

CHINESE PICKUPS: A NEW FRONTIER

In Chile, there are only a few charging stations scattered along the 2,600 miles (4200 km) of mountains and seaside terrain. According to the local auto-industry association, Chinese automakers now account for almost a third of the market in Chile. GlobalData reports that their growth came at the expense for legacy brands such as Chevrolet, Nissan, and Volkswagen, which saw sales fall between 34%-45% in 2017.

Chinese brands in Chile are more likely to follow the strategy of a traditional automaker like Toyota, which has sold few EVs worldwide.

Vernooij is the Dongfeng manager for Europe. He said that Dongfeng, like other state-owned companies, is actively targeting emerging markets in order to increase sales. Dongfeng offers a wide range of vehicles in Chile, including sedans, vans, pickups, and SUVs. Vernooij stated, "We must win." If you want to be as successful as Toyota, then you can't leave any stone unturned.

According to JATO Dynamics, Chinese brands sold less than 1,000 EVs but more than 25,000 internal combustion vehicles in Chile during the first half.

Dongfeng, a long-time China-based joint venture partner of Nissan, sells a version Nissan's truck in Uruguay. The Dongfeng Rich 6 resembles a Nissan Frontier, but with a different exterior and an older Nissan V6 motor. Nissan's spokesperson confirmed that the Rich 6 was based on the Frontier, and jointly developed by both automakers.

According to Uruguay dealers, the Nissan starts at around $30,990, while the Dongfeng is priced at approximately $21,490.

Mariana Betizagasti (33), from Durazno in Uruguay, bought a Rich 6, to handle the heavy work on a farm, such as hauling feed and transporting animals, that her Renault pickup could not do.

She said that the low price sealed the deal. "You can get two Chinese trucks at the same price as one traditional brand from Uruguay."

Nissan's spokesperson refused to comment on whether Nissan makes money from its overseas sales, or the competition that Chinese automakers pose.

Nevertheless, many Chinese automakers sell their exports at prices that are higher than the ones they receive for similar models on China's fiercely competitive market.

Yan Jun, executive vice president of Jetour International and Chery's Jetour Brand, stated that Chery will maintain a price-conscious policy as the brand expands into every European country before 2027.

In an interview, he stated that "Right Now, not many automakers in China make money." "We do not want to be involved in another price war."

(source: Reuters)