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The tin market is nearing a three-year high on tightness and short-covering
The price of tin jumped on Wednesday to its highest level in almost three years as traders scrambled for supplies and speculators juggled their positions after disruptions in two important tin-rich nations. After an earthquake on Friday that struck Myanmar, the world's third-largest tin producer and producer of tin, a record high was reached on the London Metal Exchange, as well as the Shanghai Futures Exchange. One trader stated that speculators have been buying back short positions or negative positions, particularly in Shanghai. The most active SHFE May futures tin rose as much as 4.7% to 299 990 yuan per metric ton on Wednesday, while LME tin surged to $38,395 per ton after a 30% increase this year. LME data show five large short positions for April futures. One of these represents 10-19% or the total open interest. Tom Price, Panmure Liberum's head of commodities strategy, said: "There are many bullish drivers in this market with the confusion and unease around Myanmar." The tin-mining areas of Myanmar have not been affected by the earthquake, which is the strongest in over a century to strike the Southeast Asian nation. The epicentre of the quake is about 425km away. Mines in Wa State, a tin-rich state that produces 70% of Myanmar's Tin, are located approximately 265 miles (425km) from its epicenter. In August 2023, the state of Wa suspended mining in the areas under its control to protect the resources. Before the earthquake, the state was considering resuming the activity. After Alphamin Resources announced last month that it would cease operations at the third largest mine in the world, located in the Democratic Republic of Congo, due to rebels' advances towards the site. Investors are worried about supply and have bid up the near-term LME Futures. The premium of the cash LME to the three-month futures has reached $264 per ton. This is the highest it's been in a year. Alastair Mudro, senior metals strategist with broker Marex, said: "The term structure suggests a tightening market." He added that "price behavior also attracts a systematic bid", referring to funds which trade using computer programs based on technical signals like momentum. (Reporting and editing by Ed Osmond, Pratima Deai, and Polina Demovitt)
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EBRD will provide 1 billion Euros to Ukraine's energy sector, which has been devastated by war in 2025
Matteo Patrone, vice president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), said that the EBRD plans to give Ukraine about 1 billion euro ($1.1 billion) in this year to rebuild its damaged power sector and to improve energy resilience. In more than three war years, Russia has bombarded Ukraine's infrastructure with drones and missiles, causing damage to transmission and generation facilities, and blackouts. Patrone, in remarks published for publication on Tuesday, said that the EBRD was one of Ukraine's major lenders and that supporting the energy sector would remain a top priority. "... "The energy security program is one of the most important ones, and has already been funded with 2 billion Euros," Patrone said to reporters. These 2 billions of euros will grow substantially by 2025, with the finalisation of the projects and the pipeline that we have in place, especially in the public sector. By the end of this year, it (will) be about 3 billion. Officials have stated that as Russia intensified its attacks in March 2020, Ukraine lost half of its generation capacity. It managed to survive the winter thanks to a mild climate, quick repairs, and funding and equipment provided by Western allies. Ukraine also tries to decentralise, as it rebuilds, modernises and uses more solar, wind and small modular gas turbines. Patrone stated that renewables accounted about 10% of Ukraine’s energy mix, and the EBRD is looking into projects to increase this share. Denys Shmyhal, Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan, said that the EBRD is working on a package with Naftogaz to finance the purchase of natural gas by the company for the winter. Since the beginning of Russia's full scale invasion in February 20, 2022, the EBRD has invested a total amount of 6.4 billion euro in Ukraine. Reporting by Olena Hartmash. $1 = 0.9240 Euros
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Trump's plan to increase domestic mineral production is resisted by an adviser
Unknown advisor to the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation is opposing a plan of President Donald Trump that would use it to increase domestic investment in mining production. Why it's Important: DFC is one of the world's leading sources of development financing. It has more than 50 billion dollars in portfolios of projects ranging from critical infrastructure to food, energy and health. Over 70% of this funding goes to low- and lower middle-income countries. Experts in development are worried that Trump's executive order of March 20, which invoked emergency power to boost domestic production of critical minerals and named DFC a key funding source, could lead the agency to pull back from its international commitments. KEY QUOTES "DFC is focused on countries with low and lower middle-income levels." The DFC does not currently have the authority for investing in the U.S. This could change but would cause pushback from the DFC's most ardent supporters, said Robert Mosbacher who was the former head of Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) under President George W. Bush. "I am optimistic that the reauthorisation will try to strike a balanced and keep the agency focused primarily on development, while increasing its focus on foreign policy goals." CONTEXT: The order follows Trump's decision to cut $76 billion from project funding at the U.S. Agency for International Development. Development analysts and nongovernmental organisations are concerned that the DFC mandate will also be altered. Development experts say that Trump's choice of Ben Black as DFC's CEO, the son of Apollo Global Management's co-founder Leon Black, has not done much to ease concerns. Black wrote a blog in which he disparaged DFC's support of "virtue signalling" green projects, and argued in favor of Greenland's natural resources. WHAT'S NEXT: Mosbacher stated that once appointed, Black would have the ability to contribute to an ongoing review of DFC’s governing rules. The review is expected to be completed by early October. However, any radical policy changes may be moderated by the bipartisan support the current mandate enjoys in both chambers. Last week, it was reported that DFC would be in line to handle a crucial minerals fund Trump proposed as part of the ceasefire talks between Ukraine & Russia. (Reporting and editing by Tomaszjanowski)
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Russian central bank warns US Tariff hikes could slow global growth
The Russian central bank warned on Wednesday that U.S. tariff increases could slow world economic growth, fuel inflation and cause oil prices to be lower than expected for several years due to reduced global demand. On Wednesday, President Donald Trump announced "Liberation Day", a day of celebration in the United States. This would escalate a trade conflict with other countries, increase costs and threaten a decades-old trading order. The Russian regulator warned that "the increase in import duty in the USA, and the retaliatory actions by other countries, have increased the risks of a slowerdown in global growth and an acceleration in inflation." The expectation of a lower global demand is already exerting pressure on commodity prices. It added that the risks of oil prices falling below the baseline forecast for February in the future have increased. The comments, which were published on Wednesday, came from the latest board meeting held on March 21. The participants in the meeting said that although inflationary pressure was lower due to a weaker rouble and a decrease in domestic demand, it remained high. Since the beginning of the year, the rouble has gained around 25% against the U.S. Dollar. The central bank suggested that the rise could be attributed to the ease of tensions between Russia, the United States and other countries. The strengthening of the rouble may have been due to an increased interest in Russian assets in light of a better geopolitical environment. It said that this interest could have been driven by the higher interest rates in Russia in comparison to other countries. Reporting by Elena Fabrichnaya; writing by Gleb Brianski; editing by Mark Trevelyan
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JPMorgan says that tariffs will have a'meaningful impact' on over a third EM companies
Analysts at JPMorgan estimate that more than a third (35%) of emerging market firms will be "significantly" affected by U.S. tariffs once they are implemented. Taking into account the possibility that Chinese and Mexican companies would be hard hit, they estimated that 36 percent of the over 750 firms in the closely watched CEMBI EM Corporate Debt Index by the bank would fall under this bracket. In that bracket, 16% of companies could experience a "significant impact". The 36% figure was described as "not negligible" by the analysts, although they did point out that over half of the companies in the index may only be "minimally " affected. CEMBI's index includes 6,3% of companies from China, and 4,3% from Mexico. A breakdown of the sectors most affected by the CEMBI shows that 9% of firms are industrial and 6.5% are metals and mining. JPMorgan's study also found that the average spread or interest rate premium that investors require to hold EM debt does not currently indicate that markets are pricing the type of tariffs that could cause a U.S. economic recession. The spread is now 226 basis point, up from 190 in recent weeks. However, it's still over 100 basis points lower than its average post-2010 of 320 basis point. The spread could increase to close to 300 basis points if recession fears start to grow, as it did in 2018, when U.S. president Donald Trump sparked the first trade tensions. The CEMBI spread widened by 132 basis points or 60% in just nine months. This was higher than the spreads on EM sovereign debt and U.S. Corporate Credit spreads. The weight of Asia's exposed sectors is now 21%. This is a smaller number than the previous time, when it was 35%. The slightly higher weighting of industrials has been more than offset by the lower contribution of the commodities sector. CEMBI is made up of firms from the region, which make up a little over 40%. It has a large group of tech exporters who may be affected by tariffs. Mexico is the most vulnerable country in Latin America. This is not surprising, given that more than 80% of Mexico’s exports go to the U.S. Other major economies, such as Brazil, should be less at risk. JPMorgan published a report on Wednesday that said: "There will be natural differentiation between countries in terms sectors that are more or less affected, and those with further mitigating factor such as U.S. Operations."
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Putin allows Armenian fund to buy Goldman Sachs shares in Russian public companies
According to a Wednesday decree, Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized Armenian investment firm Balchug Capital, to purchase shares held by Goldman Sachs Russian subsidiary, in nine major Russian companies, mainly in the energy sector. Balchug Capital, Goldman Sachs and other companies did not respond immediately to our requests for comments. Balchug Capital is The green light According to a separate order, the U.S. Bank will purchase Goldman Sachs’ subsidiary in Russia by January. This will allow the bank to exit the Russian market, and to extract some of the capital that is stuck there. Since the beginning of the Ukraine war, Moscow has tightened its restrictions on the sale of foreign assets. Any deal involving energy companies or banks requires Putin's approval. The decree was published on the Russian government portal. It stated that Balchug Capital would be able to buy Goldman Sachs International shares in energy companies Gazprom and Rosneft as well as Lukoil and Tatneftegas. They could also purchase shares in NLMK steelmaker, InterRAO electricity operator and Rostelecom telecoms provider. Reporting by Alexander Marrow and in Moscow; Additional reporting by Felix Light, Editing by Mark Trevelyan
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China announces final price guidance on 6 billion yuan of green bonds, according to term sheets
According to a termsheet seen by, China has set final price guidance for green bonds with a three-year and five-year maturity to raise 825 million yuan. The term sheet stated that the price guidance for a three-year bond was 1.88%, and the price guide for a five-year tranche was 1.93%. The green bond issued by China's Ministry of Finance is the first of its type by China in an overseas market. The Chinese finance ministry was not immediately available for comment after regular business hours. According to a termsheet, the initial price guidance for Wednesday was that the bond would be around 2.3% over three years and around 2.35% over five years. The deal size has been limited to 6 billion yuan. The deal was announced by the Ministry of Finance of China on March 19. It followed a China-UK Economic and Financial Discussion in Beijing in January, which was chaired jointly by British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. Reporting by Scott Murdoch, Editing by Andrew Heavens & Hugh Lawson.
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The Russian rouble is weakening slightly amid geopolitical uncertainties
The Russian rouble was slightly weaker against the U.S. Dollar on Wednesday, as the market anticipated further developments in the talks between Russia's and the U.S. regarding Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy is expected to visit Washington later this week. The rouble had fallen 0.3% to 84.25 USD on the OTC market by 1115 GMT. The Russian currency has risen by about 25% this year against the dollar, mainly on expectations that geopolitical tensions will ease. Sources familiar with the plan say that Kirill Dmitriev - a key Kremlin negotiator - is expected to arrive in Washington this week for discussions with President Donald Trump's Administration, including U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff. Denis Popov, an analyst at PSB Bank, said: "The news backdrop is excessively volatile, and we do not believe that it provides clear positive signals. This will continue to limit the demand for rouble-denominated assets." He added that, "due to the increased volatility in exchange rates and the uncertainty of geopolitical outlooks, we will be focusing our attention on sideways movement in the exchange rate in the near term." The rouble, which is the most commonly traded currency in Russia, was down 0.4% to 11.70 at the Moscow Stock Exchange. (Reporting and editing by Gareth Jones.)
CNPC's think tank predicts that China's oil demand will increase by 1.1% by 2025.
China's oil demand will increase by 1.1% to 765 millions metric tons in 2025, a think-tank affiliated with the state energy company China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) announced on Tuesday. This is due to a better than expected growth of the economy and an increasing demand for petrochemicals.
According to Wu Mouyuan of the CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute, China's plastic consumption per capita is still around 60% less than that of developed nations.
Wu said that China's booming electric vehicles (EV) sector will also drive the consumption of plastics. Plastics are used more in EVs than gasoline vehicles.
Wu stated that the use of transportation fuels has reached its peak.
He said that alternative energy sources would grow faster than was previously believed, and electric vehicles and LNG trucks will be owned by more people than they are now. By 2030, the rates of ownership for both these technologies will rise from less than 10% today to over 30% and 15% respectively.
According to CNPC, Brent oil prices are expected to fall from $79 per barrel in 2024 to a range between $65 and $75 this year due to a slowdown in the global economy.
Brent will be between $60 and $70 in the base scenario from 2026 until 2030.
The policies of U.S. president Donald Trump could have a major impact on the global market and tighten supply.
The Trump factor is the biggest uncertainty on the oil market, Wu said. He cited Trump's harsher sanctions against Iran and his threat of 25% tariffs for countries that buy oil from Venezuela or Russia. Reporting by Siyi Liu from Singapore and Colleen Waye in Beijing, with editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman & Kim Coghill
(source: Reuters)