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China's petroleum imports rebound, but it's rates, not consumption: Russell

China's crude oil imports staged a rebound in August, rising to the highest in a year, however the increase is mainly due to previously lower costs instead of any healing in usage.

The world's biggest unrefined importer saw arrivals of 49.1 million metric lots in August, comparable to 11.56 million barrels per day (bpd), according to custom-mades information launched on Sept. 10. This was the greatest monthly total because August last year, and likewise a strong gain on the 9.97 million bpd seen in July, which was the weakest month-to-month total for practically 2 years.

While the August imports look strong, it's worth keeping in mind that they are still down 7% from the very same month in 2023, and imports for the first eight months of this year are 3.1% listed below those for the very same duration in 2015.

The question for the market is whether August's rebound in imports is the start of a recovery in China's crude need, or is it most likely a reflection of the lower oil rates that prevailed when August-arriving cargoes would have been organized.

The buying pattern of China's refiners is that they tend to boost imports when they consider rates to be at a competitive level, and alternatively they draw back when they believe costs have risen too high, or too rapidly.

Cargoes that showed up in August were most likely arranged in May and June, a time when global crude rates were trending lower.

Worldwide benchmark Brent futures reached their greatest level so far this year of $92.18 a barrel on April 12, in the past beginning a sag to a low of $75.05 on Aug. 5.

This suggests that China's refiners would likely have been encouraged to buy more crude throughout this window, implying August and September imports may be fairly strong reasonably to the earlier months this year.

However, Brent crude staged a little rally after the Aug. 5 low, reaching a high of $82.40 a barrel on Aug. 12, and after that staying in a relatively narrow variety either side of $80 until the end of the month.

Since then, global need issues, especially in China, have seen Brent fall sharply to $68.68 a barrel throughout trade on Sept. 10, the lowest level considering that Dec. 21.

IMPORT INCREASE COMING?

The present weakness in global crude prices recommend that China's refiners may increase imports, and if they are buying cargoes now, this boost will appear in arrivals in November, December and even into January.

It's also the case that China's refiners enjoy to develop inventories when prices are low, and even dip into these stockpiles when costs increase.

China does not divulge the volumes of crude streaming into or out of tactical and commercial stockpiles, however a quote can be made by deducting the quantity of crude processed from the overall of unrefined readily available from imports and domestic output.

Utilizing this method, China added about 800,000 bpd to stocks in the first 7 months of the year, and it will not. be a surprise if this pace accelerated in August, provided the. strong imports and the likely ongoing softness in refinery. processing rates. There is maybe a small paradox in the possibility that China. purchases more oil because the cost has actually dropped, just as the. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) trims. its demand forecast for the world's second-biggest economy.

OPEC's most current report, launched on Sept. 10, cut its forecast. for China's demand development for a 2nd straight month, to. 650,000 bpd for 2024 from 700,000 bpd the previous month, and. 760,000 bpd the month before that.

Even the modified projection is likely still too positive,. offered China's crude oil imports for the very first 8 months of. 2024 are 10.98 million bpd, some 390,000 bpd listed below the 11.37. million bpd from the very same period in 2023.

For OPEC's forecast to be understood China's crude imports. would have to rise in the fourth quarter, and while the present. weak prices may well see them increase, it would be a significant. surprise if they rose by the volumes needed to fulfill the OPEC. estimate.

The opinions revealed here are those of the author, a. writer .

(source: Reuters)