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Oil prices drop as China retaliates against Trump tariffs
Oil prices and global stock markets fell again on Friday, as China retaliated against U.S. president Donald Trump's new tariffs. Worries about a long-term trade war increased. The Nasdaq composite was heading toward a bear-market, and the pan-European STOXX 600 confirmed that it was in correction mode as the trade conflict fanned concerns about a global recession. S&P 500 Companies have lost more than $4 trillion since Trump announced his tariffs on late Wednesday. This is a record-breaking two-day drop for the benchmark. It surpasses a two day loss of $3.3 trillion that occurred in March 2020 when the pandemic ravaged global markets. While the dollar recovered on Thursday, some investors turned to government bonds for safety. China responded to Trump's new tariffs by imposing additional 34% levies on American goods on Friday, which confirmed investor fears of a global trade war. Trump imposed a tariff of 10% on the majority of U.S. imports, and much higher rates on dozens more countries. This is the highest trade barrier in over 100 years. Rick Meckler is a partner at Cherry Lane Investments in New Vernon, New Jersey, a family-owned investment firm. "For investors who thought it was just a simple negotiation, while this may still be true to some extent, it is getting incredibly deeper and more dangerous for businesses." The fact that the U.S. economy created far more jobs in March than was expected did not brighten the mood. Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair, said at a Business Journalists' Conference in Arlington, Virginia that Trump's tariffs were "larger than anticipated" and that the economic fallout would be similar, with higher inflation and slower GDP. He said that the U.S. Central Bank does not predict a decline in its outlook, but acknowledged private sector forecasters are changing their views on this front. Peter Cardillo is the chief market economist of Spartan Capital Securities, a New York-based brokerage. Companies that have exposure to China fell as well. Apple, Nvidia, and Amazon.com all fell sharply. Globally, bank shares fell as concerns about a recession grew. S&P 500 Financial Index was down 6.8% while Energy was down over 8% due to falling oil prices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,953.69, or 4.78% to 38,601.34, while the S&P 500 fell 288.97, or 5.35% to 5,107.55, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 871.79, or 5.25% to 15,678.81. The MSCI index of global stocks dropped by 41.22 points or 5.1% to 766.4. The pan-European STOXX closed 5.1% lower. This was its largest daily loss since COVID-19-driven selloffs in 2020. The index dropped nearly 12% since its all-time March 3 closing high, which confirmed it was in correction. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 2.8% overnight for a second session running. Brent crude futures dropped 6.5% and settled at $65.58. U.S. Crude Futures fell 7.4% and settled at $61.99, their lowest level since April 2021. Powell's cautious tone about future easing helped the dollar recover against the yen and euro. The dollar index rose 0.9% last after Thursday's biggest drop since November 2022. The euro fell 0.81% to $1.096. The dollar gained 0.58% against the Japanese yen to reach 146.9. Investors are unsure where to invest their money after years of massive flows into U.S. stock markets and an booming American economy. This helped to drive a strong rush towards the government bond markets. The yield of the 10-year Treasury bill, which is considered to be the benchmark in the U.S., fell by 12.2 basis points from 3.86% to 3.933%. Prices and yields are inversely related. The benchmark yield for the Eurozone, which is the German 10-year bond, dropped as much as 17 basis points during the day. Money market futures are pricing in a Fed rate cut of 110 basis points by the end this year. This is compared to 75 bps about a week ago. The traders also increased their bets for Bank of England and European Central Bank decreases. Meckler stated that "a lot of investors who I have spoken to said, in this type of environment, we should just go cash and wait,"
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Canada's response to US tariffs
Mark Carney, the Canadian Prime Minister, announced on Thursday limited countermeasures to U.S. auto-tariffs. He imposed a 25% tax on vehicles imported from America that do not comply with the U.S. Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement. Carney, the man who succeeded Justin Trudeau last month as Prime Minister, stated that new tariffs will not affect auto parts or vehicle content coming from Mexico. He said that the Canadian tariffs, which are estimated at C$8 billion, before a remission procedure for tariff relief, would go directly to affected auto workers. Donald Trump, the president of the United States, imposed 25% tariffs in March on goods that were not compliant with USMCA. On March 11, he imposed tariffs for steel and aluminum imports. A 25% import tax was implemented on Thursday. Trump spared Canada global tariffs. Here are the retaliatory actions that Canada has taken. First, Trudeau responded to Trump's initial tariffs by imposing 25% tariffs on C$30 Billion ($21.10 Billion) of goods imported from the U.S. annually on 6 March. The C$30 billion is part of a broader retaliation strategy that targets C$155 billion of imports from the U.S. The first batch of retaliation includes 1256 products, including orange juice, peanutbutter, wine, spirits and beer, coffee and other beverages, as well as apparel, footwear and motorcycles. The value of imported products is C$3.5 billion for cosmetics and body products, C$3.4 billion for appliances and household goods, C$3 billion for pulp and paper, and C$1.8 billion in plastics. AUTOS IN ALUMINUM AND STEEL On March 13, Canada increased its tariffs by 25% on additional products worth C$29,8 billion imported from the U.S. The tariffs are expected to stay in place until U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs against Canada are eliminated. Tariffs on steel and aluminum include a variety of products, including candles, glues and umbrellas, as well as kitchenware, gold and platinum jewelry, and other items. Prime Minister's Office announced on April 3 that the new auto tariffs would apply to imports of cars worth C$35,6 billion. Tariffs of 25% will be imposed on vehicles that are not USMCA compliant and on vehicles with non-Canadian or non-Mexican components. Non-tariff Measures Trudeau said Canada was also considering non-tariff measures that could be related to vital minerals, energy procurement, and other partnerships. Carney responded on March 25, when asked if nontariff measures like export taxes or controls were on the table. Canadian provinces have removed U.S. alcohol from store shelves, and Ontario Premier Doug Ford has said that all U.S. companies will not be allowed to participate in government procurement. Ontario has canceled its C$100 million contract with Trump's ally Elon Musk and Starlink. Canada has frozen Musk's Tesla rebate payments and barred the electric vehicle maker from participating in future EV rebates. Toronto has stopped offering financial incentives to Tesla owners who purchase vehicles as taxis or ride-sharing services due to trade tensions with U.S. The PMO announced on April 3 that Canada will also develop a framework to encourage auto production and investment.
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US oil service companies to be hit by Trump tariffs and falling oil prices
Analysts and financial firms warned on Friday that U.S. oilfield services firms were bracing themselves for a blow as President Donald Trump’s tariffs threw supply chains into chaos and the falling oil prices set up a decline in drilling activity. Morningstar, a financial services firm, has lowered its fair-value estimates for SLB, Halliburton and Baker Hughes, the three largest oilfield service companies, following Trump's announcement of tariffs on Wednesday. These firms may see their oilfield revenues drop by 2-3% in 2025. Morningstar estimates that for every dollar of revenue lost, the big three companies could lose $1.25 to $1.35 in operating profit. Ryan Hassler, vice president of Rystad's supply chain research and a specialist in the industry, said that tariffs would have a significant impact on pipes, valve fittings, and sucker rods. SLB shares, the largest oil service firm in the world, fell 12% to $34.60 on Friday, their lowest level since September 2022. This is according to LSEG data. Halliburton's stock fell 10% to just under $20 and Baker Hughes dropped 11% to about $36.40. Trump introduced reciprocal duties on Wednesday. He implemented a 10% base duty on the majority of U.S. imported goods, while some countries such as China faced significantly higher tariffs. Oil prices fell on Friday, after China, which is the world's largest crude importer, increased tariffs on U.S. products. This was the most significant escalation of a global trade conflict that has investors concerned about a possible recession and subsequent drop in oil demand. Crude oil futures were down more than 8% during afternoon trading and headed for their lowest closing since 2021, when the COVID-19 pandemic was in its middle stages. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell to as low as $49.90 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), however hit a new low of $64.90. Rystad's Hassler stated that if a lower range of $60 per barrel for WTI is sustained for a prolonged period, the activity in the U.S. Shale space could decrease towards the second half year. JP Morgan, an investment bank, said that it now expects the global economy to enter recession by year's end. This is up from 40%. The curtain is falling on global trade, and the future looks bleak. Investors are fleeing risk assets like oil and stocks, as they fear a recession. (Reporting and editing by Marguerita Choy in Houston)
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Thyssenkrupp Steel Unit cancels contract with HKM and remains open for sale
Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe, the continent's 2nd largest steelmaker, announced on Friday that it had decided to terminate a contract with HKM. This is a step further to sever ties to the business, which it owns in part and wants to sell. Thyssenkrupp has been under pressure to streamline its steel business due to high energy prices and low-cost Asian competitors. It warned that it might have to close or sell HKM, which is a 50-30-20 joint enterprise between Thyssenkrupp and Salzgitter. Dennis Grimm said that due to the market conditions we would have to reduce production capacity from 11.5 million metric tones of steel at the moment to a target shipping of between 8.7 and 9 million metric tones in the future. Grimm added that the cancellation of HKM would result in a savings of up to triple-million euros. The cancellation of the agreement means that TKSE will no longer be obligated to purchase around 2.5 million metric tonnes of steel from HKM per year. This obligation expires on December 31, 2032. Grimm stated that TKSE - in which Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky holds a 20% stake - remained open to discussions with potential buyers after recent talks with a buyer fell through. (Reporting and Editing by Louise Heavens, Christoph Steitz)
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Oil prices fall as China retaliates against Trump tariffs
Oil prices and global stock markets fell again on Friday, as China retaliated against U.S. president Donald Trump's new tariffs. Worries about a long-term trade war increased. The Nasdaq composite was heading toward a bear-market, and the pan-European STOXX 600 confirmed that it was in correction mode as the trade conflict fueled global recession fears. S&P 500 Companies have lost more than $4 trillion since Trump announced his tariffs on late Wednesday. This is a record-breaking two-day drop for the benchmark. It surpasses a two day loss of $3.3 trillion that occurred in March 2020 when the pandemic ravaged global markets. Investors flocked to government bonds for safety, while traders bet on the Federal Reserve cutting rates and other central banks. China responded to Trump's new tariffs by imposing additional 34% levies on American goods on Friday, which confirmed investor fears of a global trade war. Trump imposed a tariff of 10% on the majority of U.S. imports, and even higher rates on dozens more countries. This is the most severe trade barrier in over 100 years. Rick Meckler is a partner at Cherry Lane Investments in New Vernon, New Jersey, a family-owned investment firm. "For investors who thought it was only a negotiation, while this may still be true to some extent, it is getting awfully more detailed and dangerous for companies." The fact that the U.S. economy created far more jobs in March than was expected did not brighten the mood. Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair, said at a Business Journals Conference in Arlington, Virginia that Trump's tariffs were "larger than anticipated" and that the economic fallout would be similar, with higher inflation and slower GDP. He said that the U.S. Central Bank does not predict a decline in its outlook, but acknowledged private sector forecasters are changing their views on this front. Peter Cardillo is the chief market economist of Spartan Capital Securities, a New York-based brokerage. Companies that have exposure to China fell as well. Apple, Nvidia, and Amazon.com all fell sharply. Globally, bank shares fell as concerns about a possible recession increased. S&P 500 Financial Index was down by 6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,601.47 or 3.96% to 38,938.99. The S&P 500 fell 250.57 or 4.64% to 5,144.87. And the Nasdaq Composite lost 787.62 or 4.77% to 15,760.90. The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 37.21 points or 4.61% to 770.43. The pan-European STOXX closed 5.1% lower. This was its largest daily loss since COVID-19 fueled the selloff of 2020. The index dropped nearly 12% since its all-time March 3 closing high, which confirmed it was in correction. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 2.8% overnight for a second session running. U.S. crude fell 7.74%, to $61.77 per barrel. Brent dropped to $65.33 a barrel, a drop of 6.86%. After the U.S. payroll data, the dollar rose against the euro and the yen. The dollar index rose 0.7% on Friday after Thursday's biggest drop since November 2022. Last time, the euro dropped 0.65% to $1.0979. The dollar gained 0.08% against the Japanese yen to reach 146.18. Investors are unsure where to invest their money after years of massive flows into U.S. stock markets and an booming American economy. This helped to drive a strong rush towards the government bond markets. The yield of the 10-year Treasury bill, which is considered to be the benchmark in the U.S., fell by 12.2 basis points from 3.86% to 3.933%. Prices and yields are inversely related. The benchmark yield for the Eurozone, which is the German 10-year bond, dropped as much as 17 basis points during the day. Traders expect central banks to adopt more accommodating policies. Money market futures are pricing in a cumulative Federal Reserve rate cut of 110 basis points by the end this year. This is compared to about 75 basis points a week ago. The traders also increased their bets for Bank of England and European Central Bank decreases. Meckler stated that "a lot of investors who I have spoken to said, in this type of environment, we should just go cash and wait,"
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Natural gas and soy prices plummet as China reacts
The oil price plunged to its lowest level since 2021 on Friday, and other commodities such as natural gas and soya beans also fell. This was due to China's retaliation against the aggressive tariffs imposed by U.S. president Donald Trump. Beijing announced an additional 34% levy for all U.S. products, retaliating after Trump announced that a 10% minimum duty would be applied to most U.S. imported goods. The duties were significantly higher for dozens countries, including China. Bjarne Shieldrop is chief commodities analyst for SEB. He said, "This is China's first explicit escalation, and they are not backing off, they have upped the game." He expects further retaliation by Trump. As tensions increased, fears grew that tariffs would lead to a trade war worldwide. This could impact the economy and reduce demand for certain commodities. The U.S. levies excluded energy. However, the retaliatory action by China includes all U.S. products, including export restrictions on certain rare earths. According to Kpler data and EIA, the U.S. exports a lot of energy to China. Wall Street benchmarks were heavily sold, with the Dow Jones on course to reach a correction and the Nasdaq set to enter a downturn. Brent futures dropped $5.29 or 7.5% to $64.85 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas intermediate crude futures declined $5.57 or 8.3% to $61.83 per barrel. The benchmarks for oil were set to the lowest close in the last four years, since the beginning of the pandemic. Gas prices have also fallen in Europe and Asia. The European gas price plunged to its lowest level in more than six months. The Dutch front-month contract fell by 3.02 euros or 7.7%, at 36.45 Euros per Megawatt Hour (MWh), or $11.78/mmBtu. The Asian spot prices for liquefied gas (LNG), too, remained at the lowest levels in over six months. SOYBEANS and GRAINS The Chicago Board of Trade Soybean Futures fell by more than 2 percent on Friday, as China's tariffs against U.S. products are expected to stop trade between the two countries. China is the biggest buyer of U.S. soyabeans. CBOT soybeans fell 2.3% to $9.88 per bushel by 1304 GMT, after falling to a three-month low price of $9.84. Prices of grain also dropped. CBOT Wheat fell 1.9% to $5.26 per bushel, while Corn lost 1% at $4.52-3/4 per bushel. Tariffs on Chinese grain and soybeans will prevent sales to China. "There will be no U.S. grain or soybean sales to China until the tariff issue is resolved," said one European trader. The trade war that began during Trump's first presidency in 2018 has already put pressure on the demand for U.S. agriculture products. Beijing raised tariffs last month on U.S. goods worth $21 billion in response to Washington’s earlier round on Chinese products.
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China retaliates against Trump tariffs by dumping oil and stocks
The Nasdaq Composite is heading towards a bear market as China retaliated against U.S. president Donald Trump's new tariffs, and concerns about a trade war escalated. The fact that the U.S. economy created far more jobs in March than was expected did not brighten the mood. China responded to Trump's new tariffs by announcing that it would add an additional 34% tax on American goods. This confirms investor fears of a global trade war. Trump imposed a 10% tariff Wednesday on the majority of U.S. imports, and even higher levies against dozens of other countries. This is the most severe trade barrier in over 100 years. Rick Meckler is a partner at Cherry Lane Investments in New Vernon, New Jersey, an investment family office. "The details are getting more and more complex, which is dangerous for the companies. Investors rushed to government bonds for safety, and traders increased their bets that the Federal Reserve would cut rates. Companies that have exposure to China fell as well. Apple, Nvidia, and Amazon.com were all down sharply. Globally, bank shares fell as concerns about a recession grew. S&P 500 Financial Index was down by 5.1% on Saturday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,230.72, or 3.04% to 39,315.21, while the S&P 500 declined 190.89, or 3.54% to 5,205.34, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 604.27 points, 3.59% to 15,954.66. The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 30.80 points or 3.81% to 776.84. The pan-European STOXX Index fell 5.2%. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 2.8% overnight for a second session running. U.S. crude fell 8.5% to $61.24 per barrel. Brent dropped 7.66%, falling to $64.77 a barrel. After the non-farm payroll data, the U.S. Dollar recovered against the Euro and reduced losses versus yen. The dollar index rose 0.5% Friday, after its worst fall since November 20,22 on Thursday. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 228,000 last month. Economists predicted payrolls would rise by 135,000. Last week, the euro fell 0.47% to $1.0998. The dollar fell 0.4% against the Japanese yen to 145.47. Investors are unsure where to invest their money after years of massive flows into U.S. stock markets and an booming American economy. This helped to drive a strong rush towards the government bond markets. The yield of the 10-year Treasury bill, which is considered to be a benchmark in the U.S., fell by 12.2 basis points from 3.86% to 3.933%. Prices and yields are inversely related. Traders expect central banks to adopt more accommodating policies. Money market futures are pricing in a cumulative Federal Reserve rate cut of 110 basis points by the end this year. This is compared to about 75 basis points a week ago. The traders also increased their bets for Bank of England and European Central Bank decreases. Meckler stated that "a lot of investors who I have spoken to said, in this type of environment, we should just go cash and wait,"
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Trump's tariffs are forcing trading partners into a corner
The only option for U.S. trade partners in the current trade war with Donald Trump is to sue. Most countries that are hit by tariffs of 10%-50% on their exports, to the dominant economic superpower in the world, lack the firepower or political will to fight back, according to government officials, economists, and trade experts. The vast majority of Trump's trading partners didn't immediately respond and instead indicated their willingness to negotiate with him a compromise that would save face. Even those who have counter-measured left the door open to negotiations. China, who on Friday imposed an additional 34% tariff on all U.S. products, and Canada, which took limited retaliation are expected to negotiate sooner or later. This is because U.S. consumer spending is so significant globally - two thirds larger than EU consumption according to World Bank statistics. Governments have few options other than talking to protect their export industries or broader economies. Spending on state aid, or broader economic stimuli -- Spain announced on Thursday a EUR14 Billion ($15.5 Billion) aid package -- or looking for greener pastures in trade are some of the options. German officials are looking at Mexico, Canada and India. It will be difficult for some countries to pay for the subsidies, and other financial assistance required to avoid economic downgrades, warnings of profit, and layoffs. Economists anticipate Beijing will increase fiscal stimulus in order to support the economy. The country sells more than 400 billion dollars worth of goods to the United States each year. According to Chinese policy advisors, it will also attempt to develop other markets for export. One Chinese advisor, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the subject, said: "We must strengthen our coordination with ASEAN and Japan, South Korea, EU, UK." Trump's "Liberation Day", or "Tariff Day", tariffs have increased the tax on Chinese exports imposed since Trump was inaugurated in January to 54%. The trade advisor said that despite China's economic arsenal -- its financial power, dominance of vital mineral and metal production in advanced industries, and centrality to the global supply chain -- a negotiated ceasefire is expected. It could be a long time, given Washington's animosity towards Beijing. However, there are rumors that Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping may meet in the United States by June. Economic shocks may bring countries without China's influence to the table earlier. India, which was hit with a 27 percent tariff, has already begun talks and does not intend to retaliate, according to a government official. Government sources say that India made concessions before the new tariffs were announced and is willing to reduce tariffs for more than half of U.S. imported goods worth $23 billion as part of a first phase deal. Vietnam is also expected to prioritize negotiations with little room for trade diversification or subsidies. Leif Schneider, the head of the international law firm Luther, said that it could use the exposure some U.S. companies have in Vietnam to exert pressure on the Trump administration. He added that "Vietnam is likely to prioritize negotiations in order to avoid an economic crisis." It is the sixth largest exporter to the United States despite a 46% tax, due to its popularity as an alternative to China for manufacturers looking to diversify away from China. Southeast Asia as a whole has nowhere to go. The efforts of the government to increase trade with China and Japan, as well as other neighbours, have resulted in an alphabet soup trade groupings that facilitate trade. However they fall short of compensating a U.S. shock. China, Japan, and South Korea met for the first time in five years to discuss regional trade before Trump announced his decision. There is some doubt that it will be successful, especially since these three countries are not net contributors of global demand, but exporting giants. THE LAYOFFS STARTED The European Union is already feeling abandoned by Trump over security. It said that the common market, which has 450 million members, was prepared to retaliate to Trump's tariff of 20% against the EU and to also look at other markets. Robert Habeck, German Economy Minister, said that "Forging Alliances... is the Order of the Day." He singled out Mexico, Canada, and India as places where closer trading relations would be beneficial. But trade deals can take a long time -- time that Europe, and other countries, don't have. After 25 years of talks, the EU and South America’s Mercosur bloc announced a free-trade agreement in December. Trump's tariffs are reciprocal and take effect Wednesday. German economists believe that it takes time to rebuild an economy in order to deal with global protectionism. They say that structural reforms, like more competition and technology investment, are preferable to government stimulus. The economist Robin Winkler of Deutsche Bank said that fiscal and monetary policies could not do much to counter the trade shock in the short-term. The German bank Berenberg claims that a significant part of the U.S. new tariffs could be reversed in negotiations. Europe would offer concessions, such as more contracts for U.S. defense firms. Canada has been spared any additional tariffs, but is still reeling after the 25% U.S. tariffs imposed on its steel, aluminium and auto exports. Canada spends a lot of money on subsidies that are funded by its own tariffs in retaliation, but it still feels the pain. Stellantis NV, a European automaker, announced on Thursday that it would halt production at a Canadian plant. Companies have also reported that they've already begun layoffs, and are shifting their focus to new markets. Some countries have complained to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), but trade experts consider that a weak option, especially since Trump paralysed the WTO's top appeals court in his first term. The Geneva-based body is not seen as an appropriate venue to renegotiate tariff disputes. "If they continue to push protectionism and stick to this one-sided view, I don't think they will be returning to the WTO anytime soon for multilateral negotiation," said Marco Molina of the consulting firm Molina & Associates, and former deputy permanent rep of Guatemala at the WTO. "That's a shame, because the WTO is designed to deal with issues like this."
Oil to have worst week for months due to Trump's new tariffs
Oil prices continued to fall in early Asian trading on Friday. They were on course for their worst week in several months due to U.S. president Donald Trump's tariffs. This stoked concerns about a possible global trade war, which could impact oil demand.
Brent futures were down 31 cents or 0.4% to $69.83 per barrel at 0157 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures fell 32 cents or 0.5% to $66.63.
Brent is on track to suffer its largest weekly percentage loss since the week ending October 14 and WTI since January 21.
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+), which is a group of oil-producing countries and their allies, has decided to move forward with their plan to increase the amount of oil produced. They now aim to return 411, 000 barrels per day in May instead of the 135,000 bpd originally planned.
This brings forward the surplus we expect to see on the oil market in this year. Analysts at ING stated on Friday that more OPEC+ production should lead to a greater medium sour crude and a larger Brent-Dubai differential. This spread has been at a discount unusual for most of the year.
Since Trump's Wednesday afternoon news conference, which he called 'Liberation Day' as he announced an initial 10% tariff on all imported goods to the United States along with higher duties for dozens of its biggest trading partners, both benchmarks have started falling.
The new tariffs on imports of refined products, oil and gas were not applied to these products. However, the policy could increase inflation, slow down economic growth, and intensify trade conflicts, which would impact oil prices. Reporting by Sudarshan Varadhan. Gerry Doyle edited the story.
(source: Reuters)