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China's rare earth magnet exports reached their second highest level ever in November
China's rare-earth exports reached the second highest level ever in November, the first month following the U.S. and China agreement to streamline the exports?of?the elements. Customs data published on Saturday shows that exports reached 6,150 metric tonnes in November. This is up 12% over October, and the highest level since January's record 6,357 tons. China restricted exports of specialised magnets that are used in cars, phones, and weapons in April, during the trade conflict started by U.S. President Donald Trump. This brought parts of the global supply chains to a standstill. Trump?said that he and Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader at a recent summit in South Korea, had agreed to maintain rare earths exports in a deal where he lowered tariffs on Chinese products. China's exports have recovered steadily after a slew of diplomatic agreements culminating in the Trump - Xi summit. This included a special classification meant?to accelerate shipments. China's rare earth magnet exports to America totaled 582 metric tonnes in November. This is down 11% compared to the previous month, but still within the range of the average since July. Exports to Japan, which is embroiled in diplomatic disputes with Beijing, increased by 35%, reaching 305 metric tonnes, the highest amount this year. The exports of rare-earth magnetic materials fell by 2% in the first 11 month of this year to 51.440 tons. Reporting by William Mallard; Editing by William Mallard
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ERG signs long-term supply agreement with Mitsubishi
The Eurasian Resources Group, a mining group, announced on Saturday that it had signed a long-term agreement to supply gallium for Mitsubishi Corporation?RtM Japan Ltd., a subsidiary company of Japanese trading house Mitsubishi?Corp. Kazakhstan, which currently produces no gallium, will become the second largest producer in the world after China when ERG begins production in the third-quarter of 2026. Gallium is a critical mineral for the United States and European Union. It is used to manufacture semiconductors and radar systems for aerospace and defence. In a recent statement, Shukhrat?Ibragimov (CEO and board chairman of ERG) said that gallium was a crucial element. By developing domestic operations, we can?transform strategic resources into competitive products and strengthen Kazakhstan’s position in the market for high technology materials." China announced last month that it had lifted a ban on the export of gallium and antimony to the United States after a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. However, the metals are still subject to broader controls, which require shippers to obtain licenses from Beijing. Luxembourg-headquartered ERG will ?be producing 15 metric tons of gallium per year from the bauxite ?ore it processes to produce alumina in Kazakhstan. These two products are part the aluminium production chain. ERG has not disclosed the amount of gallium that it plans to supply Mitsubishi. In June, it said that the product was going to OECD countries. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, global gallium production reached 760 tonnes last year. China produced the majority of this gallium, with only very small amounts coming from Japan and Korea. (Reporting and editing by Rosalba o'Brien; Polina Devlin)
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MiniMed, Medtronic's diabetes division, files for a US IPO
MiniMed Group, part of Medtronic, filed an initial public offering (IPO) in the United States Friday as the medical device manufacturer moves forward with the spin-off?of its diabetes business. As the capital markets slow down for the holidays, corporate issuers prepare for a possible roadshow launch at the beginning of 2026 when the IPO marketplace kicks back into action. On Friday, the New York IPO paperwork was also filed by ARKO Petroleum, a fuel distributor and Aktis Oncology, a drug developer. MiniMed of Northridge, California, founded by Alfred Mann in 1983, has a range of products from glucose monitors to insulin delivery devices. In 2001, Medtronic acquired MiniMed for $3.3 billion. In recent years, the diabetes unit struggled with quality management and cybersecurity concerns related to certain devices but has now returned to growth. Medtronic announced in May that it would spin off its Diabetes unit via an IPO?of less than 20 percent, followed by a split-off. MiniMed reported net losses of $21million on?sales? of $1.48billion in the six-month period ended October 24 compared to a loss of $23million on sales?of $1.30billion a year ago. Goldman Sachs is the leading underwriter for IPO. BofA Securities?, Citigroup?, and Morgan Stanley? are also involved. MiniMed has selected more than 10 underwriters to help with the offering. The company will be listed on Nasdaq, under the symbol MMED. The company intends to use the proceeds of the offering for debt repayment to Medtronic, among other things. (Reporting by Arasu Kannagi Basil in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli and Shailesh Kuber)
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US sanctions Maduro's family and associates
As Washington intensifies its pressure against?the Venezuelan President, the United States imposed sanctions Friday on family members and associates. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement that the U.S. Treasury Department had imposed sanctions against seven individuals it believed were linked to Maduro, his wife and other officials. Bessent issued a statement saying, "We won't allow Venezuela to flood our nation with deadly drugs." "Maduro, and his criminal accomplices, threaten the peace and stability of our hemisphere." The Trump Administration will keep targeting the "networks" that support his illegitimate regime." The Venezuelan Information Ministry did not respond immediately to a request for comment. Maduro, his government and the United States have all denied any links with crime. The U.S. is seeking a regime change to gain control of Venezuela's vast reserves of oil. The move comes at a time when U.S. president Donald Trump has increased pressure on Maduro. He is campaigning to remove him and executing an extensive military buildup in southern Caribbean. The Trump?administration carried out strikes on suspected drug vessels, seized a sanctioned tanker off the?coasts of Venezuela and declared a?blockade' of all sanctioned tankers entering or?leaving Venezuela. Trump has said repeatedly that he will soon launch a land attack in Venezuela. Friday's actions?sanctioned the relatives of Carlos Erik Malpica Flores. The?nephew Maduro's spouse who, according to the U.S., was involved in a?corruption plot at the state oil company. Washington sanctioned him last week. On Friday, sanctions were imposed on Maduro, his mother, who also happens to be the sister of Maduro’s wife, as well as his father, sister and wife.
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Rubio is not worried about an escalation of tensions with Russia regarding Venezuela
U.S. Secretary Marco Rubio told reporters on Friday that the United States was not worried about an escalation in Venezuela with Russia, while?President Donald?Trump?s administration is building up military forces throughout the Caribbean. The Trump administration sent thousands of soldiers to the Caribbean, along with an air carrier, warships, and fighter jets. Rubio said to reporters that he was not worried about an escalation between Venezuela and Russia. Rubio said, "We have always expected Russia to give rhetorical support for the Maduro government... but it is not a factor when we look at this whole thing." Foreign Ministry of Russia On Thursday, Moscow expressed its hope that Trump's government would not commit a?fatal mistake? over Venezuela. It also said that it was worried about U.S. actions that threatened international shipping. Venezuela and Russia are close allies, but a Trump strategy document said that the United States would reassert their dominance in the Western Hemisphere. It also argued the U.S. needed to revive the 19th Century. Monroe Doctrine Washington declared the Western Hemisphere as its zone of influence. The Trump administration also conducted strikes against suspected drug vessels in the region. It seized an oil tanker sanctioned off the coasts of Venezuela and declared it a "blockade" All sanctioned oil tanks entering and departing Venezuela. Trump has repeatedly said that he will'soon' launch a land attack in Venezuela. Democrats have claimed that Trump's administration has only provided limited information on the operations in the region. Rubio stated, "Nothing that has occurred requires us to notify Congress, get congressional approval or even cross the threshold of war," Rubio. Reporting by Simon Lewis and Daphne Psaledakis. Idrees A. Ali (Writing, Editing by Deepa B. Babington).
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Sources: Antofagasta and China smelter have agreed to zero copper charges in 2026.
Two sources familiar with the matter confirmed on Friday that Antofagasta, a Chilean miner, has agreed to pay 0 cents and 0 dollars per pound for treatment?and?refining?charges (TC/RCs). After protracted negotiations, the deal was reached. It compares with charges of $21.25 per ton?and 2.125cents per lb?for 2025, agreed in December last year. The agreement matches?a mid-year contract between Antofagasta?and some Chinese smelters?at zero levels. Miners pay smelters?TC/RCs for the copper concentrate they turn into refined metal. A severe shortage of mine supplies?in the past few months sent spot processing fees to negative territory, meaning that smelters had to pay more money for the privilege of processing materials. One source said that talks between Antofagasta, the world's largest copper consumer, and smelters from China have been "tough" and "challenging" this year. Because the negotiations took place in private, the sources refused to identify themselves or to name the smelter who agreed to the deal. Three sources familiar with this matter earlier said that Jiangxi Copper - one of China's largest copper smelters - was due to meet with Antofagasta Friday evening. Last month, the two sides failed to agree on the sidelines of Asia Copper Week in Shanghai when a representative from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association objected to "free and negative treatment of copper concentrate." Antofagasta didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. Reporting by Tom Daly and Pratima Dasai; editing by Kevin Liffey, Louise Heavens and Amy Lv
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After Japan's rate increase, stocks rise worldwide and the dollar gains against the yen.
MSCI's global equity gauge advanced on Friday, with technology leading Wall Street higher. The yen was weaker after the Bank of Japan increased interest rates to three-decade highs and left the door wide open for further tightening. As traders weighed up the impact of a possible disruption of Venezuelan oil supply, U.S. president Donald Trump said in an interview with NBC News published on Friday that he would leave the possibility open. War with the Country On the table. Investors sold the yen after the BOJ raised rates, and some traders took profits. This led them to think about the possibility of an official intervention in order to support the currency. The 10-year bond yield in Japan reached a record high of 26 years and the Nikkei closed 1% higher. In the United States, existing home sales increased marginally in November due to economic uncertainty and mortgage rates that were still elevated. The University of Michigan survey of consumer confidence came in below consensus estimates, but higher than the November number. Gary Schlossberg is a global strategist with Wells Fargo Investment Institute. He said that the economy may be coming out of a "mild soft patch" in terms of economic growth. Consumer price inflation He warned that the CPI could have been distorted due to the 43-day shutdown of government. "We could be still feeding off yesterday's CPI news. This is a significant event, at least on the surface. Schlossberg said that he was "a little sceptical about the extent of improvement we saw in inflation," but added that it appeared to be "peak inflation, at least now." This is good news for both the Fed and markets. MSCI's global stock index .MIWD00000PUS Rose 7.08 points 1 008,26 t The pan-European STOXX® 600 index is a .STOXX Index The rise in the 0.44%. Wall Street 11:42 a.m., Dow Jones Industrial Average Rose 280.23 point 48,232.08 The S&P 500 is a measure of the S&P 500 index. Rose 56.22 points 6,830.98 The Nasdaq Composite Index The rise in the 256.36 point 23,262.72 BOJ RAISES Rates, Yen Slips currencies The yen fell sharply in value against the dollar, and other major currencies. Traders pushed it to levels that could trigger an official buy after the Bank of Japan increased rates?to the highest level for 30 years but didn't provide clarity about future hikes. The Japanese yen is a strong currency. The dollar Strengthened 1.22% 157.44 Dollar index The greenback is measured against a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies. The rise in the price of goods and services rose by 0.2% The euro is a currency that has been in circulation since the year 2000. Down?0.03% 1.1718 Fixed income markets Treasury yields The Bank of Japan increased interest rates on Friday, and investors continued to assess?delayed releases of economic data' and the direction of Federal Reserve Policy. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes increased 2.3 basis points from Thursday's 4.116% to 4.139%. Meanwhile, the 30-year bond yield increased 1.8 basis -points to 4.8181%. The yield on the 2-year note, which is usually in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve rose by 2.3 basis points to 3.483% from 3.46% at late Thursday. Energy markets Oil prices The market was waiting for news of a possible peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, as well as watching U.S. actions regarding Venezuela. It also digested the latest central bank interest rate decisions from around the globe. U.S. crude climbed 0.82%, to $56.61 per barrel. Brent rose 0.72% to $60.25 a barrel. Gold prices fell slightly, as the stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields lowered demand for this non-yielding material. However, bullion is still expected to gain a small amount each week. Spot gold The price of roses 0.26% 4,342.99 An ounce. U.S. Gold Futures The rise in 0.34% 4,354.40 An ounce. (Reporting bySinead carew in New York; Iain Withers, London, and Wayne Cole, Sydney; Editing by Sam Holmes Jacqueline Wong Tomaszjanowski, Chizu Nomiyama
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Peru Central Bank sees economy increasing by 3% between 2026 and 2027
The central bank of Peru slightly increased its forecasted economic growth for 2026 from 2.9% to 3.0%. It also forecasted the same 3.0% growth in 2030. The central bank stated that the revised projections of 2026 in its latest inflation report take into consideration the likely impact of the country's forthcoming presidential elections scheduled for April 12th, 2026. Bank of America also increased its forecast for growth this year from 3.2% to 3.3%. Peru's economy has been recovering for the last two years, after a severe recession in 2023 that was caused by political unrest, social unrest and adverse weather conditions. The bank has predicted that consumer prices will rise by 1.5% this year, and then accelerate to 2.0% the following year. Last week, in line with analyst expectations, the bank maintained its interest rate at 4.25%. The bank's target range for inflation is between 1% to 3%. The central bank also projected a fiscal surplus of 1,9% of GDP for 2026. This is less than the 2,2% estimate made this year. The central bank's fiscal deficit estimates for 2027 remain at 1.6% GDP. The?bank has also raised its projections for the trade balance surplus, which is expected to reach another historic record of $32,89 billion this year and an additional $38,21 billion by?2026. This is due to higher mineral prices as well as a greater volume of sales for agricultural and fishing products. Peru is the third largest copper producer in the world. (Reporting and editing by Natalia Siniawski, Aida Pelaez Fernandez and Marco Aquino)
OPEC? faces decisive moment on scheduled output increase: Kemp
In the next few weeks, Saudi Arabia and its OPEC? allies must take a fragile choice about whether to proceed with planned production increases from October, or delay them since of an uncertain financial outlook.
The recent slides in front-month Brent futures prices, calendar spreads and refinery margins, in the middle of issues about the outlook for petroleum consumption, have dramatized the risk of getting it wrong.
Increasing production in spite of downward modifications to usage growth and a continued output boosts from rivals in the United States, Canada, Brazil and Guyana risks another build-up of inventories and depression in rates.
However delaying risks conceding a lot more market share to western hemisphere competitors and appealing some OPEC? members to break ranks and increase output unilaterally.
PREPARED OUTPUT
Saudi Arabia and other OPEC? members are implementing three different tranches of production cuts put in location since late 2022 to drain excess petroleum inventories and assistance prices. All OPEC? members are supposed to be participating in an official collective cut of 2 million barrels daily (b/d). agreed in October 2022 at a time of unpredictability about the. economic and oil market outlook. In addition, some members are meant to be enforcing an. additional voluntary cut of 1.66 million b/d agreed in April. 2023 and another voluntary cut of 2.2 million b/d agreed in. November 2023 to support market stability. In June 2024, ministers accepted loosen up the last of these. voluntary cuts slowly - starting in October 2024 and. finishing by September 2025.
They likewise consented to permit the United Arab Emirates to. increase its output gradually by an additional 300,000 b/d -. beginning in January 2025 and likewise ending up by September 2025.
Under this plan, overall OPEC? production is scheduled to. increase by approximately 180,000 b/d each month in the fourth quarter. of 2024 and then by 210,000 b/d monthly in the very first nine. months of 2025.
From the beginning, however, ministers stressed the. arranged production boosts were conditional and could be. paused or reversed based on market conditions.
In the next couple of weeks, OPEC? should decide whether to proceed,. or customize or hold off these increases in the light of renewed. concerns about the health of the global economy and oil demand.
COSTS AND SPREADS
Oil rates and spreads are presently about the very same or. weaker than they were when ministers accepted the second set of. voluntary cuts in November 2023.
Inflation-adjusted front-month Brent futures have actually balanced. $ 79 per barrel up until now in August 2024 (42nd percentile for all. months considering that 2000) below $84 in November 2023 (49th. percentile).
Brent's six-month calendar spread has actually sold an average. backwardation of $2.50 this month (73rd percentile) rather. more powerful than $1.63 in November (57th percentile).
However inflation-adjusted refinery margins for making two. barrels of gas and one barrel of extract from U.S. crude. have actually been $22 this month (43rd percentile) below $24 in. November (50th percentile).
With the exception of calendar spreads, which are moderately. bullish, other rate signs follow a rough. balance between production and usage at the moment.
Each of these indications has actually damaged materially because. ministers made the provisionary decision to increase production. in June 2024.
INTERNATIONAL STOCKS
Business stocks of crude and improved items in the. innovative economies belonging to the Company for Economic. Cooperation and Development amounted to 2,761 million barrels at. completion of June.
Stocks were 120 million barrels (-4% or -0.71 requirement. deviations) listed below the ten-year seasonal average and the deficit. had actually almost doubled from 66 million (-2% or -0.44 requirement. discrepancies) in November 2023.
The deficit was the best for almost two years since. September 2022, according to data from the U.S. Energy. Information Administration (EIA).
Chartbook: OPEC+ output choice
Considering that late June, U.S. commercial crude stocks have. continued to decline more and quicker than typical, contributing to. proof of a tightening up market.
U.S. unrefined inventories decreased in seven of the eight weeks. considering that June 21 by a total of 35 million barrels, according to the. EIA.
U.S. unrefined stocks normally decline over July and. August as refineries ramp up processing to fulfill elevated need. for gasoline during the summer vacation period.
But the seasonal exhaustion this year was the second-largest. in the last years after 2017, suggesting worldwide materials likely. continued to tighten up at the start of the 3rd quarter.
U.S. crude stocks were 9 million barrels (-2%) below. the ten-year average on Aug. 16 down from a surplus 6 million. barrels (+1%) on June 21.
Most of the depletion happened at refineries and tank farms. in Texas and Louisiana along the Gulf of Mexico, the most. carefully integrated with global oil markets.
Gulf Coast unrefined inventories declined in seven of the last. eight weeks by a total of 25 million barrels, compared with an. average exhaustion of 10 million over the previous decade.
TACTICAL CONSIDERATIONS
By early August, portfolio financiers had cut their integrated. position in crude and fuels to some of the most affordable levels given that. 2013.
Hedge funds and other cash managers held an integrated. position in the six crucial futures and alternatives contracts. comparable to just 226 million barrels (3rd percentile for all. weeks given that 2010) on Aug. 13.
The position was below a current high of 524 million. barrels (40th percentile) at the start of July and 338 million. barrels (14th percentile) in November 2023.
In recent weeks, fund supervisors have actually minimized their positions. in reaction to increased unpredictability about the outlook for the. major economies and worldwide oil intake.
It is unclear to what extent they have actually likewise decreased. positions in anticipation OPEC? would continue with set up. output increases, and therefore just how much of the increase if any. is already discounted in rates.
If the scheduled boost has actually been completely discounted,. postponing some or all of it might spark a sharp rally in rates,. sped up and enhanced as fund supervisors attempt to restore. positions.
If it has not been discounted at all, proceeding risks. sparking an even much deeper fall in prices as funds sell more. agreements.
TACTICAL OPTIONS
Looming over all these tactical considerations is the. outlook for the international economy in the rest of 2024 and in 2025.
Global production and freight activity has actually flat-lined or. compromised since April, which has led to petroleum. consumption growing far more gradually than promised at the. start of the year.
In action to economic softening, it promises the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks will trim rate of interest. to promote consumer and company spending.
OPEC? should decide whether to concentrate on the present softness. ( which favours a post ponement) or the stimulus and prepared for. recovery (which could cause faster oil consumption and favour. pressing ahead).
The most mindful technique would be to wait on the economy. to accelerate and a rise in oil rates before continuing,. postponing some or all of them for a couple of months.
If the group is more positive in the financial and. usage outlook, it might go ahead anyway, daring to show. the hedge fund sceptics incorrect.
Related columns:. - Oil investors cut positions to record low amidst financial. market crisis
(source: Reuters)