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VEGOILS - Palm up as Dalian oil and Chicago soyoil counter the weak crude.
The price of Malaysian palm oils rose on Thursday for a second session, with Dalian oil, a stronger competitor, supporting the market. Crude oil and Chicago soybean oil were weaker. The benchmark palm-oil contract for September delivery at Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives exchange gained 31 ringgit or 0.76% to $4093 ringgit (US$969.91) per metric ton. Anilkumar bagani, research director at Mumbai-based Sunvin Group, said that the bullish momentum of Chinese vegetable oils during Asian hour supported the market. He added that the gains were capped by a decline in Chicago soyoil and energy prices. Dalian's palm oil contract, which is the most active contract in Dalian, rose by 1.22%. Chicago Board of Trade soyoil fell by 0.05%. As palm oil competes to gain a share in the global vegetable oils industry, it tracks the price fluctuations of competing edible oils. Investors are worried that higher U.S. Tariffs could be reinstated and lower fuel demand. Major producers are also expected to announce a production increase. Palm oil is less appealing as a biodiesel feedstock due to the weaker crude oil futures. The palm ringgit's trade currency strengthened by 0.14% in relation to the dollar. This made the commodity slightly cheaper for buyers who hold foreign currencies. ($1 = 4.2200 ringgit)
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Nornickel, a Russian nickel producer, has lowered its forecast for 2025 nickel excess to 120,000 tonnes
In a review of the metals markets on Thursday, Nornickel said that it expects to have a nickel surplus this year of 120,000 tons. This is 30,000 tonnes less than they had previously estimated. Nornickel, which is the largest producer of palladium in the world and also a major producer for refined nickel, has said that it has lowered its estimate on the nickel surplus, from the 150,000 tons previously estimated to 120,000 tonnes. Nornickel says that the surplus on the palladium markets is expected to reach 130,000 tonnes next year. Nornickel reported that nickel prices have remained steady at $15-$16 per ton this year, whereas other metals markets are more volatile because of the increasing macroeconomic uncertainties. The review stated that the main reason is the improvement in the fundamental indicators of the market. "Despite the continued growth in nickel production in China, Indonesia and other countries, we observe steady demand for Nickel in China." Nornickel stated that at the current nickel prices, about 25% of nickel producers were unprofitable. They also predicted that unprofitable production plants outside Indonesia may close soon. Nornickel stated that despite the uncertainty caused by the new U.S. tariffs on trade and the geopolitical unrest in the Middle East the improved fundamental indicators of the market and the decreased surplus instilled confidence in the nickel market in the short- and medium-term. The company stated that palladium consumption would drop by 2% to 9,1 million ounces this year. Nornickel anticipates that after stabilizing production of the palladium group of metals in Russia by 2025, the output of these metals will grow next year due to the launch of the new Chernogorsk deposit by Russian Platinum.
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Stocks reach record highs ahead of US payrolls; UK bonds remain steady
The dollar strengthened on Thursday, ahead of important U.S. employment data. In Europe, the bond markets in Britain were stable after a previous sell-off triggered by debt concerns. The bulls got a boost overnight from a deal reached between the United States, and Vietnam before the deadline for all U.S. tariffs to be implemented next week. This follows frantic trading in recent weeks. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index advanced 0.4%. MSCI's 47-country main world share gauge is now at its seventh all-time high in eight sessions, and the dollar is close to ending a 4-day slide. The bonds of Britain recovered some of the heavy losses they suffered a day before due to uncertainty about Finance Minister Rachel Reeves future. However, they remain weaker than their recent levels. The 20-year bond yield, which is an indicator of UK government borrowing costs over a longer period, has eased by eight basis points since its highest spike on Wednesday in October 2022, during Liz Truss' ill-fated tenure as premier. The UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' tearful appearance in parliament has sparked doubt about her future, and Britain's finances. After the government was forced into abandoning billions of pounds of welfare spending reductions, it is unclear what will happen to Reeves. Susannah Streeter is the head of money markets and financial services at Hargreaves Lansdown. The focus was also on the U.S. Payrolls Report, which will guide ongoing debates on whether and when the Federal Reserve cuts U.S. Interest Rates. Analysts predict a rise in jobs of 110.000 in June, with the unemployment rate rising to 4,3%. But the stakes are high following a surprise drop in the private sector payrolls in the past two years. The traders were also watching to see if the tax and spending bill of U.S. president Donald Trump was passed by Congress within the next 24 hour. According to analysts, the bill will add $3.3 trillion over the next 10 years to the United States national debt of $36 trillion. Wall Street closed Wednesday with record highs, after Trump announced the U.S. has struck a deal with Vietnam that includes a 20% tariff for exports into the U.S. This is still higher than previous tariffs, which were as high as 46%. Vietnamese shares rose 0.5%, the most since April 2022. However, the dong currency fell to a record low at 26,229 dollars per dong. Shane Oliver is the chief economist of AMP. He said, "More deals will be announced soon, but the tariff agreement with Vietnam (20%) does not augur very well. That or even higher could be the norm in some countries, including Europe and Japan." In fact, Japan invoked its national interests when talks with the U.S. stalled, and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung stated on Thursday that U.S. Tariff negotiations looked difficult, but he couldn't say if they could be concluded by next Tuesday. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index closed 0.3% higher. China's blue chip index rose 0.6% as weak services data led to expectations of further stimulus. Japan's Nikkei, meanwhile, finished flat. In Europe, Nasdaq and S&P futures were also broadly flat. JOBS RISK The dollar hovered just above its three-year low versus a basket of major counterparts, up by 0.1% on the day. After a 0.8% drop on Wednesday, the pound recovered 0.2% and reached $1.3662. The U.S. payroll figures will be a major risk factor for the markets. The Federal Reserve's majority members have said that they can wait to cut rates until they are able to gauge the impact of tariffs in real terms on inflation. Tony Sycamore is an analyst at IG. He said, "These labour-market indicators warn that the risk of a spike in unemployment to 4,4%, which would be the highest rate since October 2021, has increased." This would increase the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in July to 70%. Futures indicate that the Fed is only 25% likely to cut rates this month. The Fed hasn't eased its policy in any way this year. This angered Trump, who reiterated on Wednesday his call for Jerome Powell, the Chair, to resign. Trump has repeatedly attacked Powell since his January return to the White House for failing to lower borrowing costs. Trump said that rates should be lowered to 1%, from the current Fed benchmark rate of 4.25%-4.50%. UBS' survey of reserve managers on Thursday revealed that two thirds believe the Fed's independence is in danger and nearly half believe the U.S. rule of law may be deteriorating to the point where it could influence their asset allocation. The Treasuries Market was nervous before the data, as a poor jobs report could send yields sharply down. The yields on 10-year Treasury bonds fell 3 basis points, to 4.265%, and the yields on 2-year Treasury bonds dropped 2 bps, to 3.772%. Oil prices dropped on the commodities market after a 3% increase overnight, as Iran stopped cooperating with U.N.'s nuclear watchdog. Brent crude futures fell 0.8% to $68,64 per barrel. U.S. crude oil was down 0.7% on the day. Gold prices fell 0.1%, to $3352 per ounce. Andy Bruce contributed additional reporting; Emelia Sithole Matarise edited the article.
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Polestar will make new SUVs in Europe starting 2028
Polestar announced on Thursday that it will produce its Polestar SUV model in a Volvo Cars plant in Slovakia. The EV maker is shifting more production out of China to reduce its exposure to high European and U.S. Tariffs. Polestar announced that the two Swedish firms, both controlled and owned by China's Geely, and Li Shufu its owner, had signed an agreement and the new model will be launched in 2028. The company stated that it is expanding its footprint in Europe to diversify its contract manufacturing business. Volvo's Kosice plant in Slovakia will begin production in 2026 with a capacity of 250.000 cars per year. Polestar has not yet made a profit and faces tariffs on cars imported into Europe of 28,8%, as well as more than 100% on those imported into the United States. Last year, the European Union imposed tariffs against EVs made in China because it viewed them as unfairly subsidised by the Chinese government. Beijing rejects these criticisms. Polestar has been hit by tariffs more than other European automakers, because most of its cars are manufactured in China either by Volvo Cars and Geely. Volvo Cars' plant in South Carolina produces some Polestar 3 vehicles in the United States. In early this year, the company ceased to accept new orders for the Polestar 2 which was still being made in China. Polestar 4 will be exported to the United States by the automaker from a South Korean factory, where production should begin in the second quarter of this year. Polestar announced earlier this year that it would take more time to be profitable, and therefore delayed the expansion of its sales into additional countries.
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Kyiv: EU permits more power imports to Ukraine
The European Union increased the maximum import capacity from Ukraine of electricity by 38.5%. This gives Kyiv an opportunity to earn money for rebuilding power plants destroyed by Russian attack, Ukraine's Energy Ministry said on Thursday. The new limit will remain in effect until August 1 and be reviewed monthly thereafter. Before Russia's invasion of the EU in 2022, Ukraine began exporting large amounts of power to the EU. After Russia damaged Ukrainian power generation facilities, it stopped exports. It resumed them in early this year. German Galushchenko, energy minister of Ukraine, said on Telegram that increasing the maximum export capability is a step which will help balance the Ukrainian energy systems. He also said that it would allow Ukrainian power plants earn an additional profit in order to deal with the effects of Russian attacks as well as prepare for winter. Ukraine lost half its power generation capacity due to Russian drone and missile attacks. Most of it was restored later. ExPro, a Ukrainian consultancy, said this week that Ukraine had increased its exports of electricity to 237 Megawatt Hours in June from 95 MWh around in May. The consultancy claimed that Ukraine exported electricity to Hungary, Slovakia and Moldova. Mark Potter (Reporting and Editing by Pavel Polityuk)
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What if you prayed to stop climate change? Now there's a Catholic Mass to stop climate change
The Vatican published a new rite on Thursday that will allow priests celebrate a Mass exhorting Catholics to care for the Earth. This is the latest effort by the global Church of 1.4 billion members to combat global climate change. Since centuries, Catholic priests can celebrate special Masses in order to pray for their nation, to give thanks following a harvest, or to ask God to stop a natural catastrophe. Two Vatican offices have prepared a new "Mass for caring for Creation" that allows priests pray for Catholics to "lovely care" for the creation and to "learn how to live in harmony with every creature". "This Mass... calls us faithful stewards to what God has entrusted us with - not just in daily choices and policies, but in our prayer and worship and in our way of life in the world," Cardinal Michael Czerny said, presenting the ritual at a Vatican Press Conference on Thursday. Priests can offer Masses to meet a variety of needs. The Vatican has 50 options, including the new rite approved by Pope Leo. Pope Francis, who died in 2016, was a strong advocate of caring for the creation. He was the very first pope who embraced the scientific consensus on climate change, and urged countries to reduce carbon emissions according to the 2015 Paris Climate Accord. Rev. Bruce Morrill is a Jesuit priest at Vanderbilt University and an expert in Catholic liturgy. He said: "This new theme Mass shows the Church's full recognition of the grave threats caused by climate change." The new Vatican Rite comes just two days after Catholic Bishops from Asia Africa and Latin America published a joint call to action, the first of its type, to urge governments around the world to take more action to combat climate change. (Reporting and editing by Saad Saeed; Joshua McElwee)
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News agencies report that Russia is suing for its ownership stake in Uzhuralzoloto's gold producer.
Russian news agencies, citing sources in law enforcement, reported that the office of Russia’s Prosecutor-General has filed a suit to transfer ownership of certain shares of gold producer Uzhuralzoloto. Russian prosecutors have increased the seizure and confiscation of assets in Russia through the courts. This year they have ordered the transfer to the government of a major grain trader, the Domodedovo Airport, as well as strategic warehouse assets. Uzhuralzoloto (UGC), Russia's fourth largest gold producer and listed on the Moscow Stock Exchange, was down 9.4% at 0829 GMT after falling around 17% in earlier trading. UGC is subject to U.S. sanction. The UGC and the Prosecutors did not respond immediately to a comment request. The woman who answered the telephone at the Russian Prosecutor's General Office said that she couldn't confirm the report, and that her office would only reply to written requests for information. UGC is owned and controlled by Konstantin Strukov. He has been sanctioned by several Western countries including Britain for his role as director of an extractives company in Russia. According to a source from the prosecutor’s office, the lawsuit was filed to transfer Strukov’s shares to state. The Kommersant reported that Strukov is accused of obtaining control of UGC illegally in the lawsuit. The newspaper reported that a preliminary hearing would be held on July 8. Strukov has been contacted by UGC for comment. Since Russia's troops entered Ukraine in February 20, 2022, foreign companies have faced the threat of state seizing their assets. However, Moscow has been increasingly focused on domestic assets, citing domestic security and strategic stability. Last month, Igor Krasnov - the prosecutor general who led the government's effort to seize assets worth 2.4 trillion rubles ($30.46billion) - said that foreign companies returning to Russia would be closely monitored to ensure Russia benefits. $1 = 78.8000 Roubles (Reporting and editing by Andrew Osborn, Barbara Lewis and Anastasia Lyrchikova)
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South African miners say proposed Chrome Export Tax threatens jobs
The Minerals Council of South Africa has warned that the proposed tax on chrome ore exports will reduce profitability for miners and cause job losses in the industry. Africa's most developed economy is the largest exporter of Chrome, which is mainly used to manufacture stainless steel. South Africa used to be a major producer of ferrochrome (a mixture of chrome and iron), but has lost this position to China. This is mainly due to the high cost of electricity, which forced many smelters into closure. As part of its efforts to stem the decline of the chrome industry, the South African cabinet announced on June 26 that it had agreed to lower the power tariffs for the chrome smelters and impose a proposed tax on the export of chrome ore. Minerals Council South Africa (MCSA), which represents the largest miners in the country, stated that the tax would not "achieve the government's goals of maintaining the ferrochrome sector and the preservation jobs". This would "have a detrimental impact on chrome producers, and the significant contribution that this industry makes both to South Africa's economic growth and the jobs they sustain and grow". According to the Minerals Council, the South African chrome industry directly employs 25 000 people and will generate 85 billion rand (4.85 billion dollars) in export revenues by 2024. In 2024, it exported a record number of 20.5 million tons of chrome concentrator, mainly to China, which is the largest importer in the world. South32, Tharisa Plc, and Glencore are among the companies that mine and process chrome in South Africa.
Oil drops on signs of weak US Demand ahead of Key Jobs Report
On Thursday, oil prices fell, reversing the gains of the previous session. This was due to concerns about weak U.S. Demand after data from the government showed an unexpected build-up in inventories.
Brent crude futures dropped 24 cents or 0.35% to $68.87 per barrel at 0044 GMT, after rising 3% on Tuesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 24 cents or 0.36% to $67.21 per barrel, after previously rising 3.1%.
Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that domestic crude stocks rose by 3.8 millions barrels, to 419,000,000 barrels. In a poll, analysts had predicted a drop of 1.8 millions barrels.
The gasoline demand fell to 8,6 million barrels a day, causing concern about the consumption during peak summer driving in the United States. The benchmarks rose on Wednesday, after Iran passed a law that suspended cooperation with the U.N. Nuclear Watchdog. This sparked fears the long-running dispute over Middle East producer Iran's nuclear program could once again escalate into an armed conflict. The U.S. reached a deal with Vietnam that imposes 20% tariffs on most of the Southeast Asian nation's exports. This gives investors a feeling of economic stability in international trade, which could lead to a higher demand for crude oil.
Analysts said that the market will closely monitor the release of Thursday's key U.S. employment report to determine the timing and depth of Federal Reserve interest rate reductions in the second half this year.
Lower interest rates may spur economic activity and, in turn, increase oil demand. Analysts cautioned that there was no correlation between the private payrolls report and government data. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger; Nicole Jao)
(source: Reuters)