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The US pump price may soon return to $4

Americans could soon see gas prices above $4 per gallon as renewed hostilities have led to a rise in energy prices by paralyzing the Strait of Hormuz. This is a vital route for global oil supplies.

GasBuddy's fuel price tracking service showed that the national average gasoline price on Tuesday was $3.84 per gallon. This is up 9.8 cents compared to a week earlier. Prices of gasoline are up by 22.2% on an annual basis. The high price of gasoline has become a political headache to President Donald Trump, and the Republican Party. They will be soon campaigning for their thin majority in the U.S. Congress during November's midterm elections. Last time the $4 mark was crossed, it was in late March after Iran closed down the Strait. In June, prices fell below that threshold after the U.S. signed an agreement with Iran to end the conflict.

Returning to this level would increase pressure on households already under strain from inflation. The price of gasoline has risen along with crude oil since the last week's collapse of the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran and the reimposition by the U.S. of its naval?blockade against Iran. Fuel prices for retail and crude oil tend to move together because crude oil is the main?cost of producing fuel. Shipping data revealed that the number of tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz dropped to its lowest level in over two months in the last day.

Prior to the Iran War, about 20% of the world's oil supply passed through the Strait. The loss of Russian refinery capacity as a result of Ukraine's intensified attacks on energy infrastructure has also contributed to higher fuel prices.

GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan said in a blog on Monday that he expects the average national price of gasoline will reach $4 per gallon within the next seven to ten days, and the average U.S. diesel price to return to $5 per gallon at the end of the week.

De Haan said that drivers in certain states could see gas prices go above $4 per gallon sooner.

REKINDLING INSFLATION FEARS Higher gasoline costs could complicate the outlook for inflation after prices eased more than anticipated in June due to a decline in energy prices. While June's data showed easing of price pressures largely because of lower energy prices, a sustained rise in gasoline?prices through July could change that narrative, said Simon-Peter Massabni.

"The impact?extends beyond fuel alone." Massabni stated that higher gasoline prices affect transportation costs, freight charges, and other logistics expenses. These expenses eventually trickle down to prices for goods and services in the economy.

Mark Zandi said that if the hostilities escalate and the Strait is more or less shut for a few weeks, the already extremely low global oil stocks will be further depleted.

The scenario will see oil prices, gasoline, and other energy forms spike and supply shortages across the world. Reporting by Nicole Jao, New York; editing by Liz Hampton and David Gregorio

(source: Reuters)