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Exports of Russian naphtha to Asia drop to a 1-year low and margins are supported

The flow of Russian naphtha to Asia fell to an all-time low in February after new drone attacks on Russian refinery infrastructure. This led to higher prices in the East for the raw plastic material.

Naphtha can be used as a feedstock to produce petrochemicals, which are then used in the production of plastic bottles, electric vehicle components and consumer products. Since Washington announced tougher sanctions against entities in the Russian oil business, Asian refiners have seen their profits from making naphtha increase by around 40%.

Industry sources have said that the risk of Russian supplies could complicate a global naphtha market already complex. Since 2022, when Europe banned Moscow’s oil products imports due to the Ukraine conflict, Russia has moved most of its exports from Europe to Asia.

The preliminary data from LSEG/Kpler ship tracking showed that Russian naphtha exported to Asia in February fell to a record low of 480,000-580,000 tonnes. This trend is likely to continue until the end of May or early June, when supplies will improve after Russian refineries return from their seasonal maintenance.

The data shows that the major buyers of Russian naphtha are companies in China, India and Taiwan.

FGE analyst Yew Jiing Seah stated that the decline in exports was likely due to increased drone attacks by Ukraine on Russian refineries late in January and early in February.

The Volgograd refinery, which produces 340,000 barrels per day, was also attacked as were the Ryazan refinery with 378,000 barrels per day and the Ilsky refinery at 134,000.

Traders in Russia said that some cargoes of January loadings were moved to February due to stormy weather at Black Sea ports. This contributed to the reduced exports. The traders said that Trump's new sanctions may cause some delays in March loadings.

The Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz tensions in the past two years have forced many shipments via east of Suez, to reroute through Africa. This has increased costs and reduced the discount on Russian Naphtha.

A Singapore-based trader of naphtha said that Asia's margins for naphtha have also increased due to concerns about disruptions in the supply of Iranian condensate as a result Trump's new sanctions. Condensate, an ultra-light oil, is typically processed in splitters to make naphtha.

Profit margins in the refining industry Naphtha prices rose to $120 per ton compared to Brent crude on Thursday. They were $85.60 before the announcement of sanctions.

A petrochemical dealer in India said that the current strength of naphtha margins was due to Russian supply risks, but Asia's demand remained subdued as a result of maintenance at crackers in India.

The traders refused to name themselves as they weren't authorized to speak with the media.

Analysts said that exporters from Africa and the Middle East will likely increase shipments to the east, taking advantage of the shortfall in naphtha supplies. According to Kpler, the share of Algerian Naphtha that has arrived in Asia this month is already 28% or 282,000 tonnes higher than it was in January.

(source: Reuters)