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Gold continues to fall on fears of an interest rate hike in the US
Gold prices fell on Monday to their lowest level in more than two-months, amid fears of an increase in U.S. interest rates following a positive jobs report. Meanwhile, renewed hostilities across the Middle East drove oil prices up and increased inflation concerns. Gold spot was down 0.3% to $4,315.71 an ounce at 0725 GMT. It had fallen to its lowest level since March 23 during the earlier session. Prices dropped by?3% Friday, reaching a two-month low. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery were down 0.6% to $4,341.10. Kelvin Wong is a senior analyst at OANDA. He said that gold was under pressure due to the increased Treasury yields. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Note rose, after reaching a two-week-high in the previous session. This increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Israel claimed it had struck military targets on the western and central Iranian coasts, despite reports that U.S. president Donald Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to launch any more attacks. Oil prices rose by more than $4 per barrel, causing inflation fears and interest rate increases to rise. Gold is often seen as a hedge to inflation. However, higher interest rates can weigh down on this non-yielding material. The U.S. Economy posted a strong third consecutive month in May. This confirms that the labour market is gaining momentum after last year's stumble. It also gives the central bank more leeway to keep rates stable amid rising inflation caused by the Iran War. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the markets are pricing in an increase by the Federal Reserve before year-end. There is a 72% probability of this happening by December. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated on Friday that the new job numbers showed the labour market was?roughly in balance and close to?full employment', while the continued high inflation could?require the Fed raising rates soon to control it. Silver spot was down by 0.5% to $67.47 an ounce. Platinum fell 0.6% to 1,766.70 while palladium rose 0.3% to $1229. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu sahu in Bengaluru, Sherry Jacob-Phillips).
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Wall Street Journal, June 8,
These are the most popular?stories from the Wall Street Journal. These?stories have not been?verified' and we cannot?guarantee? their?accuracy. Israel and Iran traded missile strikes Monday, after the U.S. brokered a ceasefire in early April. This was their first direct attack since the truce went into effect. - Nvidia is ?teaming up with South Korea's SK Telecom and Naver ?to build gigawatt-scale artificial-intelligence cloud infrastructure in Asia. - Intesa Sanpaolo said ?it has launched a EUR30.66 billion ($35.33 ?billion) unsolicited cash-and-share ?takeover bid for Monte dei Paschi di Siena. Roche has announced that it has signed an exclusive licensing agreement and collaboration with Nurix Therapeutics for the development of blood cancer drug,?bexobrutideg. The deal is worth up to $2.3 Billion. OPEC and their 'allies' agreed to increase oil production?by 188,000??barrels a day in July, amid Middle East tensions which have?disrupted a major oil?shipping?route. Ingredion announced that it had agreed to purchase Tate & Lyle, a British company, for PS2.7 billion ($3.6 'billion) cash. The deal stipulated a price of?595 per share.
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Gold continues to fall on fears of an interest rate hike in the US
Gold prices sank on Monday due to a growing 'fear of an increase in U.S. interest rates? after a positive jobs report. Meanwhile, renewed hostilities across the Middle East drove oil prices up and increased inflation fears. Gold spot fell 1% at $4,287.66 an ounce as of 0544 GMT. Prices dropped about 3% Friday, reaching their lowest level since March 24. U.S. Gold futures for August delivered?were down by 1.2% to $4,311. The market's hawkishness is reflected in the Fed futures, said Kelvin Woong, senior analyst at OANDA. He added that higher Treasury yields are further pushing gold down. The yield on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes rose, after jumping to two-week highs in the previous session. This increased the opportunity cost for holding non-yielding gold. Israel claimed it had struck military targets in western and central Iran, despite the fact that U.S. president Donald Trump reportedly warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to launch any further attacks. Oil prices increased by more than $3 per barrel, causing inflation fears and interest rate increases to rise. Gold is often seen as a hedge to inflation. However, rising interest rates can weigh on this non-yielding precious metal. The U.S. Economy posted a strong third consecutive month of job gains in the month of May. This confirms that the labour market is gaining momentum after its stumble last year, and gives the central bank more room to maintain rates despite rising inflation caused by the Iran War. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the markets are pricing in an increase by the Federal Reserve before year-end. There is a 72% probability of this happening by December. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated on Friday that the new jobs numbers showed the 'labour market is roughly balanced?and close to full employment. Meanwhile, continued high inflation may require the Fed raising rates soon to control it. Silver spot was down by 2.2% to $66.33, platinum fell 2.1% to 1,739.78 and palladium dropped 1.5% to 1,207.50. (Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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Gold continues to fall on fears of an interest rate hike in the US
Gold prices extended their?losses Monday due to a growing?fear of an U.S. rate?hike?following a strong jobs?report, while renewed hostilities and inflation concerns in the Middle East drove oil prices up. By 0429 GMT, spot gold had fallen 0.2% to $4319.09 an ounce. Prices dropped by about 3% Friday, reaching their lowest level since March 24. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery?were down by 0.5% to $4,343.20. The market's hawkishness is reflected in the Fed futures, said Kelvin Woong, senior analyst at OANDA. He added that higher Treasury yields are further pushing gold down. The yield on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes rose, after soaring to a 2-week high in the previous session. This increased the opportunity cost for holding non-yielding gold. Israel claimed it had struck military targets in western and central Iran, despite the fact that U.S. president Donald Trump reportedly warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to launch any further attacks. Oil prices increased by more than $3 per barrel, causing inflation fears and interest rate increases to rise. Gold is often seen as a hedge to inflation. However, rising interest rates can weigh down on this non-yielding precious metal. The U.S. Economy posted a strong third consecutive month of job gains in the month of May. This confirms that the labour market is gaining momentum after its stumble last year, and gives the central bank more room to maintain rates despite rising inflation caused by the Iran War. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the markets are pricing in an increase by the Federal Reserve before year-end. There is a 72% probability of this happening by December. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated on Friday that the new jobs figures show the labour market is roughly in balance and near full employment. However, the continued high inflation could require the Fed raise rates quickly to contain it. Silver spot was steady at $67.86 an ounce. Platinum lost 0.5% at $1,767.42 and palladium remained unchanged at $1.225.67. (Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
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London Copper nears 1-week Low on Continued Inflation Worries
London copper was near its one-week lows Monday due to a combination of 'weaker Chinese metal prices' and a growing expectation that the Federal Reserve will be pushed towards rate hikes by strong U.S. job data and higher oil costs. Benchmark 'three-month copper' on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.38% at $13,570.5 per metric ton as of 0331 GMT. LME copper fell to its lowest level since May 28 due to a rising dollar, and inflation fears. Industrial metals are more dependent on economic growth, so higher interest rates can dampen their prospects. Official data showed that the U.S. economy created 172,000 new jobs in May. This was more than double what analysts expected. The strong data was released less than two weeks before Kevin Warsh made his debut as the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve. According to CME's FedWatch, expectations of a rate hike in December have risen to 78%. The most traded copper contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.5%, to 104160 yuan (15,354.45) per ton. The trend was a sell-off in tech stocks across Asia as China and Hong Kong opened lower Monday, following their U.S. counterparts. The Yangshan Copper Premium The price of copper in China, which reflects the demand for imports, dropped to $64 a ton at the end of Friday's trading, its lowest level since April 30. China has historically been sensitive to high prices. Oil prices increased by?3.68% Monday, after Iran and Israel exchanged?fire Sunday and Monday. Aluminium, zinc, and lead all saw a slight increase. Nickel also increased by 0.4%. Tin, however, fell by 1.48%. On the SHFE, elsewhere, aluminum fell 0.74%. Zinc also dropped 0.74%. Lead dipped by 0.21%. Nickel gained 0.79%. Tin plunged 5.97%.
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The morning bid rally in Europe turns ugly
Rae Wee gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. A sell-off in technology stocks spread across Asia on Monday, as investors slammed brakes on AI's red-hot rally. South Korea's KOSPI fell by more than 8% and triggered circuit breakers. The move?followed?that of the Wall Street shakeout last week, after an explosive U.S. employment report heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes - a bane to growth stocks. According to CME FedWatch, the markets now price in a greater than 70% chance of the Fed raising rates in December. This is up from just 45%?a week earlier. The nonfarm payrolls data released on Friday came only days after Broadcom reported a disappointing result last week. This sent its stock plummeting, and also dragged down the share prices of technology companies. When expectations are so high, a slight miss can be a major blow. Most analysts and investors have dismissed the latest sell-off as "a healthy correction" with concentration risks and leveraged position?amplifying market movements. However, it is still unclear how long this rout will continue. The dollar reached a new two-month high in other markets. This was due to the Fed's bets on a rate hike and the resilience of the U.S. economic system. Investors are on high alert as Tokyo is expected to continue buying yen in order to stem the currency's decline. On Monday, revised gross domestic product figures showed that Japan's economy had lost momentum from the previous quarter to the first three months of this year. This was due to a slowdown in capital expenditure. The data calendar is light for Monday, but the week ahead will be dominated by the SpaceX listing, U.S. Inflation data and a European Central Bank meeting. The war in the Middle East continues, with Israel claiming to have struck military targets on?western Iran and central Iran, despite the fact that U.S. president Donald Trump had reportedly instructed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to launch any further attacks. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact Boeing will?release numbers for May deliveries and orders - Global airline CEOs gathering for an event in Rio de Janeiro France: Reopening the 3-month, 4-months, 6-months and 11-months government debt auctions - Germany: Reopening 5-month and 11 month government debt auctions
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Iran's envoy in Moscow said that the strait of Hormuz will be open, but there will be transit fees.
Iran's ambassador in Moscow was quoted on Monday as saying that the Strait of Hormuz would be open, but with new?conditions set by Iran? and?Oman?, including a?transit fee. The U.S. and Israeli war?on Iran 'has largely reduced oil flows through the strait. Before the conflict, one-fifth the world's crude oil passed through the strait. Recently, several tankers left the Gulf. However, oil and LNG flows remain severely constrained. In an interview published Monday, Ambassador Kazem Jalali said that the strait would be opened, but new conditions would be set by the Iranians and Omanis. We understand that Iran, Oman and other countries provide certain services related to the strait. He said that fees would be charged for?those services? without elaborating. Iran claims that a permanent agreement for peace should allow it the right to charge fees on ships transiting the Strait. These fees would depend on the type of vessel, the cargo, and the conditions. Donald Trump, the U.S. President, is strongly opposed to this position. The U.S. warned Oman in late May not to participate in any effort to impose a tax with Iran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Oman's ambassador had told him there was no plan to impose this toll. Israel announced on Monday that it had struck military targets in central and western Iran even though Trump reportedly asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to launch any more attacks. Japan, which imported?95%?of its oil needs from the Middle East prior to the war, has said that it didn't pay a fee when a crude oil tanker linked to Japan passed through the waterway last May.
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Gold continues to fall on fears of an interest rate hike in the US
Gold prices continued to fall 'on Monday, due to fears of a rate hike in the U.S. after a strong jobs report. Meanwhile, renewed hostilities across the Middle East drove oil prices up and increased inflation concerns. By 0302 GMT, spot gold had fallen 0.4% to $4313.11 an ounce. Prices dropped by about 3% Friday, reaching their lowest level since March 24. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery?were down by 0.7% to $4,336.30. The market's hawkishness is reflected in the Fed futures, said Kelvin Woong, senior analyst at OANDA. He added that higher Treasury yields are further pushing gold down. The yield on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes rose, after reaching a two-week high in the previous session. This increased the opportunity cost for holding non-yielding gold. Israel claimed that it had?hit military targets?in central and western Iran on Monday despite the fact that U.S. president Donald Trump reportedly warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to launch any further attacks. Oil prices increased by more than $3 per barrel, causing inflation fears and interest rate increases to rise. Gold is often seen as a hedge to inflation. However, rising interest rates can weigh on this non-yielding precious metal. The U.S. Economy posted a strong third consecutive month of job gains in the month of May. This confirms that the labour market is gaining momentum after its stumble last year, and gives the central bank more room to maintain rates despite rising inflation caused by the Iran War. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the markets are pricing in an increase by the Federal Reserve before year-end. There is a 72% probability of this happening by December. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated on Friday that the new jobs figures show that the labour market is roughly in balance and near full employment. However, the continued high inflation could require the Fed raising rates soon to control it. Silver spot fell by 0.4%, to $67.56 an ounce. Platinum lost 0.5%, to $1,767.15, and palladium remained at $1,225.66. (Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
OPEC+ kicks the can once again as Trump is added to demand problem: Russell
It was most likely a. relatively easy decision for OPEC+ to as soon as again postpone plans to. boost oil output. The soft state of international need is by itself sufficient factor. to validate the decision at Thursday's meeting of the group to. postpone winding back a few of its production cuts up until at least. April. But weak need growth may be the least of OPEC+'s worries as. the oil market will be hit with the return of Donald. Trump and all the unpredictability and inconsistent policies that. may bring.
Trump's return to the U.S. presidency is likely to alter. the marketplace characteristics for crude, however the issue is no one truly. knows in what methods, and making decisions even trickier for. OPEC+, which combines the Organisation of the Petroleum. Exporting Countries and allies including Russia.
The only thing that is entirely clear from Trump's. rhetoric is that he desires less expensive fuel rates for U.S. customers.
To this end his arrival back in the White Home on Jan. 20. need to be bearish for unrefined costs.
Trump's administration is most likely to reduce policies for the. U.S. oil and gas industry in the hopes that this will lead to. higher production.
It might well help enhance U.S. gas output, especially. if international need for melted natural gas remains robust.
However there's more of an enigma around U.S. crude. production, which is already at record levels and might hit. capacity restrictions.
It's likewise unsure as to why U.S. oil companies would desire. to produce more oil if the impact of this is just to lower. prices.
It becomes a calculation if the extra barrels can. increase revenue and earnings even if rates weaken.
Some of Trump's other possible policies could have opposing. effects on the crude oil market.
Extensive tariffs on U.S. imports might overthrow global flows. if the steps reach crude.
For instance, tariffs on oil imports from Canada and Mexico. could result in higher costs for U.S. consumers and lower. profits for U.S. refiners, both of which are bearish for demand.
If other nations impose vindictive tariffs, U.S. crude. and item exports may be lower, which might be bullish for. prices as it minimizes international supply.
If Trump is successful in bringing peace to Ukraine and at. least a ceasefire to the Middle East, this could be bearish for. crude as it will possibly include more Russian barrels back into. the market as well as lowering the risk premium.
But if Trump goes hard against Iran over its nuclear. programme and increases sanctions and their enforcement, it may. be bullish for rates as it will be harder for the Islamic. Republic to move barrels and may increase geopolitical tensions.
In general, Trump is likely to be bearish for prices, most likely. not because U.S. output will increase but more likely since. his policies will lower global economic growth.
ASIA NEED
It's not just Trump that OPEC+ has to ponder, it's the weak. state of demand in Asia, the top-importing region that purchases. nearly two-thirds of seaborne petroleum. For the first 11 months of the year, Asia's crude imports were. 26.52 million bpd, down 370,000 bpd from the 26.89 million bpd. tracked by LSEG Oil Research for the same duration in 2023.
The decline in imports stands in contrast to OPEC's many. current projection for Asia's oil demand to broaden by 1.04 million. bpd in 2024 from the previous year.
Much of the decline can be blamed on China, the world's top. oil importer, with OPEC and other experts being wrong-footed by. both the soft economy and the increasing structural shift to. electric cars and LNG-powered trucks.
The trend toward electrification is likely to accelerate in. China, and the possibilities are it will broaden across Asia as China. seeks brand-new markets to exploit its leadership in EVs, batteries. and photovoltaic panels.
Overall, OPEC+'s biggest problem is that it can only keep. the oil price around $75 a barrel by extending its existing deep. output cuts of about a total of 5.86 million barrels per day.
However in doing so it successfully subsidises its rivals and. provides the first opportunity to get any increase in international. demand.
The views expressed here are those of the author, a. columnist .
(source: Reuters)