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OPEC+ kicks the can once again as Trump is added to demand problem: Russell

It was most likely a. relatively easy decision for OPEC+ to as soon as again postpone plans to. boost oil output. The soft state of international need is by itself sufficient factor. to validate the decision at Thursday's meeting of the group to. postpone winding back a few of its production cuts up until at least. April. But weak need growth may be the least of OPEC+'s worries as. the oil market will be hit with the return of Donald. Trump and all the unpredictability and inconsistent policies that. may bring.

Trump's return to the U.S. presidency is likely to alter. the marketplace characteristics for crude, however the issue is no one truly. knows in what methods, and making decisions even trickier for. OPEC+, which combines the Organisation of the Petroleum. Exporting Countries and allies including Russia.

The only thing that is entirely clear from Trump's. rhetoric is that he desires less expensive fuel rates for U.S. customers.

To this end his arrival back in the White Home on Jan. 20. need to be bearish for unrefined costs.

Trump's administration is most likely to reduce policies for the. U.S. oil and gas industry in the hopes that this will lead to. higher production.

It might well help enhance U.S. gas output, especially. if international need for melted natural gas remains robust.

However there's more of an enigma around U.S. crude. production, which is already at record levels and might hit. capacity restrictions.

It's likewise unsure as to why U.S. oil companies would desire. to produce more oil if the impact of this is just to lower. prices.

It becomes a calculation if the extra barrels can. increase revenue and earnings even if rates weaken.

Some of Trump's other possible policies could have opposing. effects on the crude oil market.

Extensive tariffs on U.S. imports might overthrow global flows. if the steps reach crude.

For instance, tariffs on oil imports from Canada and Mexico. could result in higher costs for U.S. consumers and lower. profits for U.S. refiners, both of which are bearish for demand.

If other nations impose vindictive tariffs, U.S. crude. and item exports may be lower, which might be bullish for. prices as it minimizes international supply.

If Trump is successful in bringing peace to Ukraine and at. least a ceasefire to the Middle East, this could be bearish for. crude as it will possibly include more Russian barrels back into. the market as well as lowering the risk premium.

But if Trump goes hard against Iran over its nuclear. programme and increases sanctions and their enforcement, it may. be bullish for rates as it will be harder for the Islamic. Republic to move barrels and may increase geopolitical tensions.

In general, Trump is likely to be bearish for prices, most likely. not because U.S. output will increase but more likely since. his policies will lower global economic growth.

ASIA NEED

It's not just Trump that OPEC+ has to ponder, it's the weak. state of demand in Asia, the top-importing region that purchases. nearly two-thirds of seaborne petroleum. For the first 11 months of the year, Asia's crude imports were. 26.52 million bpd, down 370,000 bpd from the 26.89 million bpd. tracked by LSEG Oil Research for the same duration in 2023.

The decline in imports stands in contrast to OPEC's many. current projection for Asia's oil demand to broaden by 1.04 million. bpd in 2024 from the previous year.

Much of the decline can be blamed on China, the world's top. oil importer, with OPEC and other experts being wrong-footed by. both the soft economy and the increasing structural shift to. electric cars and LNG-powered trucks.

The trend toward electrification is likely to accelerate in. China, and the possibilities are it will broaden across Asia as China. seeks brand-new markets to exploit its leadership in EVs, batteries. and photovoltaic panels.

Overall, OPEC+'s biggest problem is that it can only keep. the oil price around $75 a barrel by extending its existing deep. output cuts of about a total of 5.86 million barrels per day.

However in doing so it successfully subsidises its rivals and. provides the first opportunity to get any increase in international. demand.

The views expressed here are those of the author, a. columnist .

(source: Reuters)