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Take Five: A $100 question

Next week, it's all central banks. Interest rate-setters in Tokyo, Washington and London are growing more nervous due to the Middle East war escalate. Oil prices have returned to $100.

Tariffs from the United States are now back on the list of worries for markets that worry about inflation and growth risks due to war.

Rae Wee, Dhara Ranasinghe and Samuel "Indyk" and Alun John are in London. Lewis Krauskopf is in New York.

DOUBLE TROUBLE

Investors are now watching two chokepoints for energy shipping to see how much oil and natural gas comes out of the Middle East.

Houthi attacks may make the Bab el-Mandeb strait inaccessible, which connects the Indian Ocean with the Red Sea. This could also affect the already-squeezed Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel for the first since May on Thursday. The European gas price just reached its highest level since March.

Investors will not only be interested in Gulf news when they update Truth Social, but also a U.S. Iran peace deal.

The U.S. imposed new tariffs on Friday of 10% and 12,5% on goods imported from 60 trading partners including the European Union, China and Canada, increasing market uncertainty.

Earnings Tests 2/ FED

The U.S. market is in for a busy, full week. A U.S. Federal Reserve meeting and several corporate earnings reports from technology giants will be the highlight of this week.

It is expected that the Fed will hold rates at their current level on Wednesday, in its second meeting with new chairman Kevin Warsh.

Warsh shunned giving guidance, but pledged to bring down the inflation rate to its target. Uncertainty remains high because interest rates could rise at some point.

Recent data on consumer and producer prices that were lower than expected by market participants helped calm rate-hike betting, but the resurgence of oil prices has traders raising their stakes once again.

Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon will all be reporting earnings in the coming weeks. Investors are expecting a good quarter for U.S. corporations and are focusing on AI trends.

After Alphabet's stock dropped this week, investors questioned the company about its capital expenditure plans and cash flow.

In the Doldrums

On Friday, the Bank of Japan will meet. Much depends on the policymakers' ability to send a hawkish signal that could lift the yen from its four-decade-low against the U.S. Dollar.

The yen has not been lifted by a well-publicized rate hike, $73 billion in currency intervention, nor the hope that money will return home. It recently fell below 163 to the dollar for the very first time since 1986.

Some BOJ sources believe that the BOJ could raise rates faster than the market consensus of twice a years if the price pressure from a weakening yen or rising energy prices persists.

Tokyo's July Inflation figures are due ahead of the BOJ's Friday policy decision. However, market participants do not expect that the data will change the BOJ's outcome.

What's the hurry?

The Bank of England, unlike the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan has so far refused to raise rates due to the pressure of rising oil prices. The Bank of England is widely expected to raise rates again on Thursday.

The markets expect at least one?rate rise this year, as?inflation rates are expected to pick up. However, signs of weakness in the jobs market suggest that the BoE may adopt a dovish tone.

The rate-setters met just days after Andy Burnham, the new Prime Minister of Britain, entered Downing Street with a promise to reshape Britain. Andrew Bailey, the BoE's chief executive officer, will likely be asked about his views on Burnham’s agenda in the briefing that follows the policy meeting. Economists believe that a decision to reduce the tax on electricity could slow inflation by 0.1 percentage point.

Bond markets will also assess whether John Healey will be a friend or foe.

5/ EUROPE EARNINGS DELEGAGE

Barclays says that Europe is experiencing its busiest earnings week, with 40 percent of the STOXX600 market capital reporting.

LVMH is one of the companies on the list, along with AstraZeneca and Shell.

The second-quarter profit in Europe will increase by 17.3% if you combine the results from companies that have already announced their results with those that are still pending.

This would be the highest growth rate since the 4th quarter of 2022. The surge in oil prices is largely responsible for this. If you exclude them, LSEG I/B/E/S predicts a modest 7.2%.

The ECB's policy could be influenced by the latest euro zone inflation and GDP readings. It left its policy unchanged last Thursday after June's rate hike. (Graphics and Compiled by Yoruk BAHceli, Edited by Dhara Ranasinghe & Christopher Cushing).

(source: Reuters)