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As rate hike fears increase due to rising Middle East tensions, gold drops by more than 1%
Gold prices dropped more than 1% on Sunday as fresh strikes in the Middle East sparked inflation fears, raising the prospect of longer-term interest rates in the United States. By 9:08 am EDT (1304 GMT), spot gold had fallen 1.4%, to $4.064.02 an ounce. Prices fell for a second consecutive session. U.S. Gold Futures fell 1% to $4 071,80. "I'm not bullish on gold for the short term." The Middle East conflict is causing oil prices to rise, and the Federal Reserve could tighten policy. This is bad for assets that yield nothing, like gold", said?Fawad Rasaqzada at Forex.com. He added that if oil prices continue to rise, gold prices may break down. They could initially 'head towards $3,800 and then possibly $3,500 if'selling pressure' increases. U.S. forces and?Iranian troops exchanged heavy drone and missile attacks over the weekend, and on Monday. Tehran claimed it had hit U.S. military installations across the Gulf, and closed the Strait of Hormuz, which drove oil prices up. Oil prices are likely to fuel inflation because they increase energy and transportation costs across the economy. This could lead central banks to raise interest rates to combat price pressures. CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows that traders believe there is a 69% probability?that the U.S. The central bank is expected to raise interest rates by September. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his first "monetary policy" testimony to Congress on Tuesday. His?remarks will be analyzed by market participants for clues about the future of rates. This week, the U.S. Government will release important data, including retail sales, the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index for June, as well as weekly jobless claims. (Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; Editing by Paul Simao) (Reporting from Ashitha Shivaprasad, Bengaluru. Editing by Paul Simao.)
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The World Bank is threatening to pull back on its climate commitments, despite the record-breaking pledges made by development banks.
A?report? by the EU's lending arm revealed that multilateral development banks had committed a record $162.5 billion to climate finance last year. However, targets for the poorer nations may be in danger after the World Bank decided to abandon important goals. The combined climate finance provided by ten of the largest development banks in the world reached a record of $162.5 billion in 2025. Nearly $103 billion went to developing countries. The European Investment Bank, which published the report said that MDBs are "on track" in meeting climate finance targets set at the COP29 U.N. Climate Change Summit in Baku 2024. The lenders at that meeting projected they would provide an annual climate finance of $120 billion to low-income and middle-income countries, along with $50 billion for high-income economies, by 2030. Ambroise fayolle, vice-president of the EIB, said: "These results demonstrate that multilateral banks are delivering support at scale and where it's most needed." DECISION OF THE WORLD BANK LOOMS Observers have, however, warned that these key COP goals might not be achieved following the World Bank's decision last month to abandon its goal of dedicating 45% to climate change projects. The Bank said it would now focus on the lending outcomes, rather than the input goals, after being under pressure by the Trump administration, to abandon the climate lending targets adopted during Joe Biden’s presidency of 2023. The World Bank's Monday report highlighted the importance of the World Bank in achieving the 2030 goal. The World Bank provided nearly half of the $102.6 billion in climate finance that went to developing nations last year. It has been doing this for five years. The World Bank has not yet commented on the EIB Report. COMMITMENTS TO CLIMATE Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), which provide climate finance to low-and middle-income countries, have doubled their funding over the past five years. The figures released on Monday showed that the mitigation projects in 2025, which include renewable energy and emission-reduction programs, will total $67.8billion. The amount of adaptation finance, which is meant to help countries deal with the increasing severity of climate impacts, has risen by 31%, reaching $34.8 billion. The amount of lending for climate-related projects to high-income countries also increased from $31.1 billion a year ago to $59.9 milliards last year, and an additional $80 million in private sector financing was mobilised. At the COP30 climate conference in Brazil last year, multilateral development banks reaffirmed that they would continue to increase their support for countries pursuing climate-resilient and low-carbon policies. The climate minister of Turkey said in April that the COP31 in Turkey this year will aim to translate past decisions into actions.
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India's trade secretary reports that the India-US talks are progressing well.
India's trade minister said that the talks between India and America are "progressing well" and New Delhi does not see any obstacles to a successful conclusion of a deal. The framework agreement is complete. The framework deal will be signed when the time is right, said Rajesh Agrawal, trade secretary, at a June press conference, as he presented monthly data on exports and imports. In February, both sides agreed on a?18% tariff on Indian goods as a trade-off for New Delhi to lower its trade barriers and buy more American goods. The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling invalidating President Donald Trump’s global tariffs has clouded a final deal. "We're ready to sign, but the deals are all about comparative advantages." Agrawal added that these preferences were versus certain competitors and countries. Following the court order the majority of goods coming from?India now face a 10% U.S. Tariff, just like the rest of the?countries. The 'Trump Administration' is expected to introduce higher tariffs in this month as a result of an investigation into excessive?industrial capacity. Washington has already proposed a new 'tariff' of up to 12.5% for dozens of countries, including India, due to alleged failures to curb the?trade of goods made with forced labour. Agrawal stated that there is no difference or negativity between India and the United States. Reporting by Shivangi Asharya, Editing by YPrajesh and Alison Williams
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Iraqi Prime Minister seeks large energy investment on US visit
Zaidi Bets on US Companies to Stimulate Energy Sector The Iran War has caused a major economic blow to Iraq Zaidi to meet Trump for possible deals By Ahmed Rasheed & Muayad Hameed BAGHDAD (July 13) - Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi hopes to secure significant U.S. investments in the country's oil, gas and power sectors when he visits the White House next week. The Iran War has impacted the state's finances and crude production. Analysts say that Iraq's government has a growing focus on diversifying its international partnerships to better deal with the regional instability. This agenda is expected to take centre stage during the 13-18 July visit. This is one of the most direct attempts to date to attract major U.S. investments into a sector that has long been dominated by Chinese and Russian firms. Iraqi officials, however, reject any suggestion Baghdad was distancing themselves from their close ally Tehran for closer ties with Washington. Ahmed Younis, a political analyst based in Baghdad, said that the Iran war marked a turning-point. It highlighted the dangers of over-reliance on a single regional partner. He said that "Zaidi believes energy is the fastest way to deepen cooperation with Washington." According to Iraqi officials and U.S. government officials, the effort involves negotiations with Chevron on major upstream projects. It also includes support for?U.S. backed power and liquefied gas ventures. HKN Energy, a U.S. company, has signed an agreement to develop the Himreen Oilfield in northern Iraq. The government also authorized the Electricity Ministry, which is responsible for completing a comprehensive agreement of cooperation with General Electric aimed at expanding Iraq’s electricity transmission and generation infrastructure. These deals will be the focus of an upcoming meeting between Zaidi, who is a multi-millionaire and took office as Iraqi Prime Minister in May. Donald Trump has given Zaidi strong support. Zaidi stated in a statement issued before the trip that "we have instructed the Ministries of Oil, Electricity and Communications (MOEC) to give priority to American companies with reputable track records in the fields of energy, telecommunications, and technology." FOCUSING ON US FIRMS VS. CHINESE, RUSSIAN, AND EUROPEAN COMPANIES Analysts say it will be difficult to attract enough investment for the development of oilfields, and fixing infrastructure bottlenecks which have prevented sustained increases in production. A document seen by revealed that the Iraqi Cabinet instructed the Basra Oil Company, the state-run oil company in Iraq, to exempt U.S. companies involved in energy project discussions from certain regulatory requirements relating to preliminary agreements in early June. Mohammed Abbas, an energy consultant and former manager of the Basra Oil Company, said that the recent decisions about Chevron and U.S. operators operating in the Kurdistan Region reflect a deliberate shift in policy. "Zaidi uses Iraq's energy industry to strengthen ties with Washington, and to change the perception of some U.S. major energy companies that Iraq is an unfriendly environment for large-scale investments." Four Iraqi oil officials who are familiar with the talks between U.S. energy firms -- such as Chevron and ExxonMobil -- and Baghdad said that the move underscored Baghdad’s broader efforts to deepen the economic cooperation?with United States. This outreach is coming as Iraq struggles with the same challenge that many oil-producing countries face: attracting investments and expanding production, while still being constrained by the OPEC+ producer's group output limits. Although?Iraq has some of the largest crude oil reserves in the world, long-standing production restrictions have complicated efforts to raise revenue to support an ever-growing population. Iraq's strategy has become more important as negotiations with Chevron are a key element. Chevron began exclusive talks with Iraq earlier this year over the West Qurna-2 giant oilfield after Baghdad replaced Russia's Lukoil, the operator. This could have given the U.S. Chevron has taken control of Iraq's largest oilfield. Iraqi legislators and analysts have indicated that the energy initiatives of the government are meant to send a signal to Washington, that Iraq has become a more attractive location for international investment following years of security concerns, bureaucratic obstacles, and legal disputes. The security situation has significantly improved since the defeat of Islamic State a decade or so ago. However, periodic drone attacks and regional tensions still pose a threat to energy infrastructure. Iraqi officials claim that security measures around oil installations have been strengthened since the conflict with Iran. Additional measures are being taken to reassure foreign energy companies. "Prime Minister Zaidi is a businessman and knows that winning over American companies to invest in Iraq, especially with the fragile security situation in the region, is not an easy task," said Murad ISMAEL, a member of Iraq's oil and gas parliamentary committee. (Reporting and editing by Michael Georgy and Aidan Lewis; Reporting by Ahmed Rasheed & Muayad Haeed)
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Copper remains firm as US-Iran conflict weighs on sentiment
The dollar was weaker on Monday, but gains were limited as tensions between the U.S.A. and Iran escalated and oil prices increased, further causing inflationary fears. The benchmark copper price on the London Metal Exchange was 0.1% higher, at $13,501 per metric ton of official rings. The lower dollar makes metals priced in dollars cheaper for holders of currencies other than the U.S. dollar, which could increase demand. After renewed military strikes by the United States and Iran, concerns about energy shipments via the Strait of Hormuz were reignited. The focus was also on falling copper inventories. The copper stocks in LME approved warehouses fell by more than 20 percent since the end of May, to a 4-month low level of 305 200 tons. Metal earmarked for deliveries at 43% or cancelled warrants indicate that another 130,525 tonnes is expected to leave the LME. Sources in the industry say that much of the copper is headed to the United States, where President Donald Trump may impose tariffs on metals used in construction and power industries. Since President Donald Trump launched a national-security probe in February last year, traders and producers have shipped metals to the United States. Since then, the copper stocks in warehouses that were registered with Comex have increased by nearly 600%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange monitors warehouses and has found that copper stocks have dropped by 80% in the last few months. As material leaves warehouses, the rapid fall in stocks creates a higher floor price. This trend is seen across most metals. The markets are anticipating Kevin Warsh's first appearance as Federal Reserve Chair before the?Congress and?U.S. Inflation data can provide clues about the direction of the dollar. Lead fell 1.2% to $1.874, zinc declined 1.5% to $3.563, aluminium rose 0.2% at $3.145, tin increased by 0.1% to $53,200, and nickel dropped 1% to $15,575.
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UK bans two Iranian groups for antisemitic acts in Britain
After a series of antisemitic attacks on British streets, the British government used powers similar to proscriptions in order to combat state-backed threats. This power would effectively ban support for these groups, and give police and intelligence agencies?new powers to combat any threats related to them. Keir starmer, the Prime Minister of Britain, said that "these 'new powers' will make it easier for anyone to be prosecuted and jailed in Britain who is doing their dirty work." Since its establishment in 1979, the IRGC has been an elite military force loyal the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic. The Islamic Movement of Companions 'of the Right', a second Iran-linked group, claimed responsibility for seven antisemitic attacks on Jewish and Israeli communities as well as Persian-language media. This included the arson attack against four Hatzola ambulances at Golders Green, London, which took place on 23 March. The new powers also included the designation of Russia's GRU intelligence agency. Before the?designations can take effect, they must be approved by Parliament.
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Gold prices continue to decline as Middle East tensions support a higher-for longer rate view
Gold prices fell for a second session in a row on Monday, as renewed?hostilities? in the Middle East fueled inflationary fears and raised expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would keep interest rates high for longer. By 1100 GMT, spot gold had fallen 1.4%, to $4.061.64, while U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery were down by 1.1%, to $4.069.60. U.S. forces and Iranian drones have exchanged heavy attacks, including missiles and drones. Tehran has also hinted at the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. On hearing the news, oil prices rose by over 3%. "Renewed hostilities (in the Gulf) rekindle fears about inflation and the risks of further Federal Reserve tightening. This creates additional headwinds for gold through higher bond yields, and a stronger Dollar," said Ole Hansen, a Saxo Bank analyst. Hansen stated that "focus on the Middle East, higher oil prices and low liquidity during summer holidays are key risks which may cause gold prices to move outside of their current range of $3.900-$4,200." The opportunity cost of non-yielding gold increases as interest rates rise. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in a 69% chance that the U.S. Fed will raise interest rates in September. This is up from a 63% probability last week. This week is packed with U.S. Economic Data Releases, including the June Consumer?Price Index,?Producer Price Index as well as weekly Jobless Claims. Kevin Warsh will make his first appearance as the new?Fed chair before Congress on Tuesday and on Wednesday. This is expected to provide further insight on the economy, inflation and monetary policies. COMEX gold traders reduced their net long position by 1,964 contracts, to 114,854 during the week ending July 7, according to data released on Friday. This was after three weeks of consecutive increases. Silver spot fell 2.4%, to 58.4181 dollars per ounce. Platinum dropped 0.5%, to $1.619.98. Palladium was down 0.8%, to $1.266.60. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis, Hugh Lawson, and Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru)
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Nigerian oil production reached highest level since 2020, says regulator
According to the data released on Sunday by the regulator, Nigeria's crude oil production reached its highest level in more than six years in June, as stable operations and improved reliability of pipelines boosted output. The Nigeria Upstream Regulatory Commission reported that Africa's biggest oil producer, Nigeria, produced an average of 1,56 million barrels of crude oil per day in June, which was 4% higher than the quota set by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Nigeria's total oil production, including condensates that are not subject to OPEC quotas in June, averaged 1.735 millions bpd, up from 1.7 million bpd a month earlier and marking a 4th consecutive month of growth. The crude oil production in June was the highest since April 2020. This is a 74 month high. According to data, stable operations in producing assets and the lack of major pipeline failures helped support production uptime. Nigeria's production has increased steadily in recent months. It went from 1.483 million barrels per day in February to 1.546 million in March, then 1.663 in April, and finally 1.700 in May. The June production was higher by 2.2% than the previous months. Reporting by TifeOwolabi; Writing by ChijiokeOhuocha, Editing by Kirby Donovan
OPEC lowers its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026
* Oil demand growth in 2026 is cut by 190,000 barrels per day (bpd) due to the impact of the Iran war
* OPEC+ production?rises 3 million bpd by June as Hormuz flow starts to?recover
* Reduced geopolitical tensions could give the economy some 'upside' in the second half of the year
Olesya Astakhova & Alex Lawler
LONDON - OPEC lowered Monday its forecast for the world's oil demand growth to 780,000 barrels a day. This is its third consecutive downward revision. The producer group has continued to predict a lower impact on consumption than other forecasters, such as the International Energy Agency. OPEC has said that the world economy could do better for the remainder of the year, and it has 'raised the oil demand growth projections for 2027. The Middle East's oil production was cut by millions of barrels as a result of the war, which effectively closed one of the most important oil routes in the world for several months. The?interim agreement between Iran and United States has led to a?recovery of output, but renewed military strikes have reignited concerns about shipments.
OPEC's report posted on its website stated that "the global economic growth dynamics in the first half 2026 have remained broadly resilient."
If energy markets and trade flow stabilize further, a possible moderation in geopolitical conflicts could provide some upside to global growth in 2026's second half.
Compared to the previous forecast, this year's oil demand is expected to grow by 970,000 bpd. OPEC estimates that oil demand will rise by 1.94million bpd in '2027. This is an increase of?210,000 bpd over the previous forecast.
OPEC+ - which includes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, such as Russia - had agreed to resume production?increases in April. However, the closure of Hormuz has made it impossible for the production to reach the agreed quota levels.
The report says that OPEC+ crude production averaged 36.28 millions bpd, an increase of about 3 million bpd compared to May. It cites'secondary sources' OPEC uses for monitoring its?production as Gulf member countries began to resume their output halted during the Iran War.
The United Arab Emirates left OPEC+ and OPEC on May 1, so the May figures includes them.
(source: Reuters)