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IMF cuts growth forecasts for Middle East exporters as Gulf exporters suffer from the impact of war

International Monetary Fund announced on Tuesday that the Middle East and North Africa will 'experience a sharply lower growth rate this year due to the oil exporting countries dealing with the 'fallout' of the Iran War. IMF's World Economic Outlook's forecast for the region's real growth in GDP was cut to just 1.1%, which is 2.8 percentage points below its original January projection.

In 2027, growth is projected to return to 4,8%. IMF estimates assume that energy production and transportation will be normalised in the next few months. It noted that the assumption could need to be revised, if the conflict continues. Bo Li, IMF Deputy Managing director said that MENA countries face unprecedented challenges and exceptional uncertainty in their outlook.

"Even if production and exports are normalized by the middle of this calendar year, the MENA countries, their economies, their prospects for growth have already been severely impacted."

The attacks by Iran on Gulf neighbours in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes that began 'late February' have caused major damage to energy facilities, and the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted, as it would normally be handling a little over 20% of global oil, and liquefied natural gas.

Bo said that "for the countries most directly affected by the war, their production will remain below its pre-war trend for the near future and also the medium term."

War has also caused inflationary pressures, and has clouded global economic prospects. The U.S. and Iran talks to end the conflict broke down over the weekend.

SAUDI ARABIA FARING BETTER THAN OTHERS

IMF said it revised GDP projections much lower for countries in the area due to decreased production and exports. It added that the degree of revision was determined by "damage to energy and transport infrastructure, as well as a country's dependence on the Strait of Hormuz as well as availability of alternate export routes."

Saudi Arabia's economy is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2026. This is 1.4 percentage points less than the January estimate. However, the kingdom is expected to be less affected by war than its Gulf neighbors.

Iran's economy will shrink by 6.2% in the fiscal year beginning March 21. The following year, it is expected to grow 3.2%. Prior to the war, it had been expected that Iran's economy would grow by 1.1% this fiscal year.

The IMF report stated that Bahrain, Iraq Kuwait and Qatar will also see their economies contract in this year. The IMF report said that GDP growth revisions for oil and gas importers were milder. Egypt's growth, for instance, is expected to slow from 4.7% to 4.2% by 2026, but then recover to 4.8% by 2027. Staff Reporting; Editing by Edwina Ricci and Andrea Ricci

(source: Reuters)