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Heatwave in Australia's south causes bushfires
Australia's southern region was sweltering in a brutal heatwave Wednesday. Temperatures reached above 40 degrees Celsius, or 104 degrees Fahrenheit, in some cities. This triggered health warnings and caused power grids to strain. Meteorologists stated that conditions were the worst they had seen in six years when bushfires devastated large areas of southeast Australia and killed 33 people. This was known as the Black Summer. The National Weather Bureau issued extreme or severe heat warnings to the states of New South Wales and Victoria. The weather bureau also warned about extreme fire danger in Victoria and South Australia. Sarah Scully, Senior Meteorologist said: "These elevated fire dangers are driven by an extremely hot air mass that extends from Western Australia and has temperatures exceeding 45 degrees." Authorities in Victoria, where temperatures can reach up to 44 C and 41 C at the state capital Melbourne, have advised residents to remain indoors and stay hydrated. Tim Wiebusch, Victoria's Emergency management Commissioner, said that firefighters are battling multiple fires throughout the state. The conditions will worsen on Friday. He said that the conditions are now spreading across the entire state. "We have already sent out a statewide warning for heatwaves of severe to extreme intensity," he explained. "We want Victorians in particular to be aware of their conditions, and to stay cool." The temperatures also reached 31 C in Sydney, 32 in Perth, and 43 in Adelaide. Some public places, like libraries, extended their opening hours to keep residents cool. Others?like Monarto Safari Park had to close for the day. In Adelaide, more than 2,000 households lost power. I think you need to be calm and not panic in the heat. It's just two or three days. Valdine, a resident of Adelaide, told ABC that it would go down again.
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Nickel prices remain high despite copper nearing record levels
Nickel remained near multi-month highs as expectations of tighter supplies from Indonesia, the top nickel producer, kept it steady at record levels. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded?copper contracts closed the daytime trade?0.11%?higher, at 103410 yuan (14,800.13 dollars) per metric ton. This is still below a previous record of 105500 yuan. As of 0700 GMT the benchmark three-month price of copper at the London Metal Exchange was down 0.87%, to $13,122.50 per ton. This is after it reached an all-time record high of $13,387.50 a ton on Tuesday. Citi raised its copper price forecast for the near term to $14,000 per ton on Tuesday, citing a strong market that exceeded both its baseline and bullish outlook in its December projection. The bank's average 2026 forecast remained at $13,000. Citi stated that January could be the 'peak for copper prices in this year. Without fresh market catalysts supporting its $15,000 bull case scenario, prices will likely 'decline towards a sustainable level of around $13,000. Nickel prices rose to a 19-month high after the Indonesian government cut the mining quotas for 2026. Shanghai nickel closed the daytime trading at 147,720 Yuan per ton. This is the highest level since June 2024. London nickel climbed 0.11% to $18,545 per ton after reaching its highest level since June 2024 at $18,785. Analysts at Sucden?perceive the metal's increase as "more susceptible to near-term profits-taking", citing a weaker fundamental basis. Shanghai tin rose 5.33%, while the London benchmark added 1.22%. Investors will also be evaluating the Federal Reserve interest rate path in this month to get a better idea of how commodities are moving. Fed Governor Stephen Miran stated on Tuesday that the interest rates were too restrictive and that a cut of "more than 100 basis point" is needed to support growth this year. The U.S. attack against Venezuela and the capture President Nicolas Maduro are still in the spotlight. Other base metals in the SHFE rose by 1.18% for aluminium, 0.81% for zinc, and 1.83% for lead. The LME's other base metals saw a drop of 0.37% in aluminium, a dip of 0.28% in zinc, and 0.19% increase in lead. $1 = 6.9871 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Lewis Jackson, additional reporting by Dylan Duan.
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BlueScope Steel shareholders seek price increase for $9 billion purchase offer
BlueScope Steel's investors are hoping for a A$13.2billion ($8.92billion) buyout bid from SGH or U.S. based Steel Dynamics to win their support in selling Australia's biggest steelmaker. BlueScope shares closed?1.12% higher at A$29.87 on Wednesday, a fractional amount below the A$30 offer per share made public on Monday. The BlueScope board has yet to deliver an official recommendation on the all-cash bid, which was the fourth approach from Steel Dynamics put to the Melbourne-headquartered firm since late 2024. According to the agreement, SGH, owned by Australian billionaire Kerry Stokes would purchase BlueScope, and then sell the North American assets of the steelmaker to Steel Dynamics. BlueScope's shares trading near the offer price suggest that the market is expecting the deal to proceed. However, some investors believe the price should be raised to gain their support. Jamie Hannah, VanEck's deputy head of investments, said: "It is good to see some interest in BlueScope. However, looking at the valuations, we think it is not enough." "I think that the way things are going, they will have to increase their offer if they hope to convince any of the shareholders to sign." AustralianSuper, BlueScope’s largest shareholder with a 12,5% stake, refused to comment. The bid could not proceed without its backing, since Australian pension funds are often active in corporate transactions. AustralianSuper rejected Brookfield's bid of $10.6 billion for Origin Energy 2023, saying that the offer was too low. SGH's spokesperson stated that its bid for BlueScope will give shareholders an "immediate, certain?opportunity?to realise a material increase in value and a high attractive premium." BlueScope Steel Dynamics and Steel Dynamics have not responded to our requests for comment. Joseph Koh is the portfolio manager of Blackwattle Investment Partners which owns BlueScope stock and SGH. Macquarie analysts stated in a research report that they felt investors perceived the price to be low, but the deal prospects were real. They said that "a shift in economics and terms is likely to occur as time goes on."
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As global tensions increase, crude oil prices fall and shares decline
Crude futures fell?and stocks in Asia declined as markets struggled to deal with the ramifications and fate of Venezuela's petroleum reserves. The oil prices continued to fall after U.S. president Donald Trump announced that Venezuela would "turn over" up to 50 million barrels to be sold at market price, following the capture and toppling of the nation's leaders. Japanese shares fell sharply while gold and industrials metals were near record highs. Geopolitical tensions in South America and China dominated the yen rally, while investors looked for clues on the timing of possible interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Michael McCarthy, CEO Moomoo Australia & New Zealand's investment platform, stated that the most likely outcome of the turmoil in Venezuela is an increase in the global economy. "Clearly, it's negative for oil prices themselves. But energy costs are crucial to your global economy outlook." He added: "On the flip side, the increased uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape could overwhelm any positive economic benefit." U.S. crude oil fell by 1.66%, to $56.18 per barrel. Brent dropped to $59.94 a barrel. This is a 1.25% drop on the day. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 0.6%. Japan's Nikkei stock index slid 1.1%. The S&P/ASX 200, a heavily-weighted index in Australia, which is dominated by commodity producers, rose 0.2%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 1.3% after giving up some gains following a three-day rise. The Euro Stoxx '50 futures for?European equity market rose 0.05%. German DAX Futures rose by 0.2%. FTSE Futures fell 0.24%. The S&P 500 eminis futures in the U.S. were down 0.04%. Trump announced on Tuesday that Caracas has reached an agreement with Washington to export Venezuelan crude oil worth up to $2 billion to the United States. The agreement follows a weekend attack on Venezuela and comments from the White House that they were looking at ways to acquire Greenland, with the U.S. using its military as a means of achieving that goal "always being an option". Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is still awaiting drug charges in a New York prison, whereas opposition leader Maria Corina Machado said that she wanted to return to the country to lead it. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket currencies) fell 0.06%, reducing its?0.2% increase on Tuesday. The euro remained at $1.1691, and the yen gained 0.2%, to 156.42 dollars per yen. China announced a ban on dual-use products that could be used to make weapons for export to Japan. This was Beijing's response to the remarks made by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takayichi regarding Taiwan. Nickel jumped over 10% in the last session as concerns about supply fueled gains?in industrial resources. The key U.S. employment report due on Friday is likely to influence the market's expectations for monetary policy. The current price of two additional Fed rate cuts in this year has been priced into the market. The JOLTS survey, and ADP private pay on Wednesday are two important events that will likely influence the market's monetary policy expectations. Data from the Asian trading day showed that core inflation in Australia slowed a little and consumer prices increased less than expected. In Japan, a private sector survey showed that the service sector grew at its lowest pace since May. Spot gold dropped 1.1% to $4.448.29 per ounce. Copper fell 1.34%, to $13,060.50 per ton. Bitcoin fell by 0.8%, to $92,496.86. Ether also declined by 0.8%, to $3,247.70. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing, Shri Navaratnam and Rocky Swift from Tokyo)
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Indian jewellers' stock shines on the back of strong festive-quarter sale and higher gold prices
The shares of Indian jewellery retailers rose between 2% to 13% after companies reported strong sales growth for the quarter ending December, driven by robust demand during the festive season despite a rise in gold prices. Titan Company shares rose 4.8%, reaching a record high of 4,307.80 Rupees. The company had reported a 40% increase in sales. Kalyan Jewellers & Senco Gold also?also rose 3.7% & 12.2% respectively after their quarterly update. Spot gold prices rose by nearly 12% in the last quarter of the year, closing out a calendar where precious metals saw their steepest increase since 1979. This was due to geopolitical uncertainty, rate reductions and central bank purchases. Dharmesh kant, the head of equity research for?Cholamandalam Securities, said that higher?prices had an impact on volume, but not (on) overall spending. Kant said that jewellery companies also benefited from the increased cash in people's hands as a result fiscal policies such as GST reductions?and income taxes relief as well as low prices.
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BlueScope Steel shareholders seek price increase for $9 billion purchase offer
BlueScope Steel's investors are hoping for a A$13.2 Billion ($8.92 Billion) buyout offer from SGH and U.S. based Steel Dynamics to gain their support to sell Australia’s largest steelmaker. BlueScope closed Wednesday with a 1.12% increase in its shares at A$29.87. This is a fractional amount below the A$30 offer that was made public on Monday. The BlueScope board has yet to deliver an official recommendation on the all-cash bid, which was the fourth approach from Steel Dynamics put to the Melbourne-headquartered firm since late 2024. SGH, owned by Australian billionaire Kerry Stokes would purchase BlueScope, and then sell the North American assets of the steelmaker to Steel Dynamics. Some investors believe that the price should be raised to ensure their support. Jamie Hannah, VanEck's deputy head of investment, said that while it is good to see some interest in BlueScope's stock, looking at its valuations, we don't think this is enough. "I think that the way things are going, they will have to increase their offer if they hope to convince any of the shareholders to sign." AustralianSuper, BlueScope’s largest shareholder with a 12,5% stake, refused to comment. The bid could not proceed without its backing, since Australian pension funds are often active in corporate transactions. AustralianSuper has rejected Brookfield's bid of $10.6 billion for Origin Energy by 2023, saying that the offer was too low. BlueScope SGH and Steel Dynamics have not responded to our requests for comment. Joseph Koh is the portfolio manager of Blackwattle Investment Partners which owns BlueScope & SGH stock. Macquarie analysts stated in a research report that they felt investors perceived the price to be low, but the deal prospects were real. They said that "a shift in economics and terms is likely to occur as time goes on."
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Andy Home: The US tariff on copper is draining China's warehouses.
China's refined copper exports surged to records levels in the last year, as the world's largest buyer found itself in unusual competitive competition with the U.S. As the market values the possibility of U.S. tariffs, the CME's U.S. Copper contract continues to command an attractive premium over the price on the London Metal Exchange. The decision was deferred to June of this year. The ripple effect of U.S. metal delivery premiums is now emptying China's warehouse zones. China's exports jumped from 698.500 tons to 143,000 tons in November. This is already a record for the entire year. The total for November included 57.700 tons of goods headed to the U.S. All of them were sourced from stocks stored in bonded warehouses located at Chinese ports like Shanghai. The lingering threat of tariffs continues to disrupt global trading patterns. CHINA'S BONDED STOCK RAIDED AGAIN Last year, the arbitrage between the CME and LME was so blown out that traders had a unique opportunity to make money by importing physical copper into the U.S. CME copper stocks have exploded to 450,000 tonnes, more than LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange combined. LME stocks for U.S. delivery of desired brands, notably Chilean metal, are exhausted. Chinese and Russian copper made up 95% of the registered inventory as of?the end November. Metal that was physically unloaded, but had not been cleared by customs to be delivered to mainland buyers has come back to the forefront of attention. This is the second time that this bonded stock has been raided. China exported or rather redirected 120,000 tons refined copper to the U.S. from February through July of last year when import tariffs appeared to be a certainty. The tariff trade was stifled by Donald Trump's decision to impose tariffs on copper products, but not refined copper, in July. Since then, traders have been betting that the threat of tariffs has only been delayed. The increase in November shipments of goods from Chinese ports to United States is a testament to the renewed appeal of U.S. deliveries. Plugging the Gaps China's portside copper inventory will also leave to plug any gaps that may have arisen elsewhere, as traders remove from the supply chain all brands of metal which can be delivered against the CME contract in order to ensure frictionless arbitrage trading. Outbound shipments in November included 16,500 tonnes bound for Italy, as well as smaller tons destined for Germany and Sweden. The rush to get products to the U.S. has caused availability to fall and physical prices to rise everywhere else. Aurubis, Europe's largest producer, has increased its premium for terms sales to $315 per ton from $228 over the LME base price this year. Codelco, a Chilean state-owned producer, is charging its European clients $325 per tonne and its Chinese customers $350 per tonne. This reflects the fierce competition between traders for Codelco's brands. China is still the largest copper importer in the world, but the increase in outbound shipments has caused its net pull of units from other countries to decrease by 11% during the first eleven months of 2025. It has also struggled to compete with U.S. premium brands when it comes to CME delivered brands. China's imports from Chilean metal dropped by 43% on an annual basis between January and November, while those from Peruvian metal declined by 50%. Chinese buyers are increasingly dependent on imports from Russia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, which represented 37% and 11% of the total in the first 11 months of 2025. SIGNAL CONFUSION It's hard to tell how much copper has sat in China's warehouse zones for the past few years. Metals are classified as imports by customs departments, but they only become statistically visible when they're reshipped elsewhere. In that case, it appears on the export side under a special code. It's obvious that there are fewer imports now than before Trump proposed tariffs in February. The removal of China's copper port stocks shows how the threat of U.S. Tariffs has affected global copper flows. This is also a problem for assessing the current state of a market that consistently hits all-time highs in price. The global exchange inventory was above 800,000 tonnes for the first since 2013 which could dampen the bullish market exuberance. The CME is the main driver for higher stocks, as copper continues to arrive daily. The CME, where copper is still arriving daily, has been the main driver of higher visible stocks. The physical supply chain as well as the price signal of inventory are still being distorted by the tectonic movement of copper stocks from Europe to the U.S. As long as Trump's tariff threat causes a CME premium large enough to cover physical shipment costs, the drain on availability elsewhere, including China’s port stocks, could become more acute. Andy Home is an author and columnist. The opinions expressed in this column are Andy Home's. Open Interest (ROI), a data-driven, thought-provoking commentary on the markets and finance. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X.
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The spoils of oil
Rocky Swift gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. While Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro waits for his fate in a New York jail, it appears that nearly $2 billion of Venezuela's oil is also destined for the United States. Donald Trump's recent use of military force in achieving policy goals has resulted in the toppling of a?leader? and the country's oil reserves. He has hinted in recent days at possible strikes against Colombia, Mexico and Greenland. The markets have largely taken these events in stride. Crude oil has reacted the most to the prospect that 50 million barrels sanctioned Venezuelan crude will be shipped and sold into the U.S., under a Trump-announced plan. Three sources with knowledge of the plans say that U.S. oil executives will 'visit the White House on Thursday to discuss investments to?Venezuela. Gold's record high has been maintained by rising geopolitical risk, including simmering tensions in China with its neighbours. Supply concerns for industrial metals, such as copper, have caused a price spike. Asian shares were mostly lower. They failed to maintain the momentum that had?driven U.S. benchmarks and European benchmarks overnight to record levels. Japanese shares were particularly weighed down by a diplomatic split with China that resulted in Beijing banning the export of certain goods which can be used to military purposes. This move was deemed "unacceptable" by Tokyo. There's more to life than sabre rattling. This week's main economic event is the release of key U.S. unemployment data on Friday. These numbers will provide hints about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The markets are pricing in at least two rate cuts for this year. As a precursor, the Job Openings?and Labor Turnover Survey(JOLTS) and ADP private payrolls are released on Wednesday. The following developments could have a significant impact on the markets on Wednesday:
UN chief Guterres expresses concern about the instability in Venezuela and legality of US operations
The United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed concern on Monday over a possible increase in instability?in Venezuela following the capture by the U.S. of Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro.
The 15-member Security Council met at the U.N. Headquarters in New York, just hours before Maduro had to appear before a Manhattan federal judge on drug charges - including narcoterrorism conspiracy. Maduro denies any criminal involvement.
Guterres made the statement in a letter to the U.N. Political Affairs chief, Rosemary DiCarlo.
Guterres called for all Venezuelan actors, including the government and opposition parties, to engage in a democratic and inclusive dialogue. He added: "I welcome?all efforts that aim to assist Venezuelans to find a peaceful path forward."
He also expressed his concern that the U.S. Operation to capture Maduro at Caracas, on Saturday, did not respect international law.
'ACTS OF AGGRESSION
The Colombian government, which had requested the meeting on Monday, has condemned "the U.S. Operation" as a violation of Venezuela's sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity.
Colombian U.N. The ambassador, Leonor Zalabata-Torres, addressed the council. "Such acts constitute a grave violation of international law as well as the United Nations Charter."
Legal experts said that the U.S. military operation was illegal, because it did not have U.N. Security Council approval and did not have Venezuelan consent.
The United States is not responsible for any violations committed by the U.N. Security Council. Its mandate is to maintain international peace and safety. Along with Russia, China and Britain, the United States has a veto, so it can 'block any action.
In the founding Charter of the U.N., it states that "members shall refrain from using force or threatening to use force in international relations against the territorial integrity or political independence or any state." The United Nations currently has 193 members.
U.S. Mike Waltz, the U.N. Ambassador on Sunday, cited Article 50 of the U.N. Charter which states that "nothing shall impair the inherent rights?of collective or individual self-defense in the event of an armed attack against a United Nations member." Trump has threatened to launch another strike against Venezuela if it does not open its oil industry or stop the drug flow. Trump has also threatened Colombia, Mexico and Cuba. He said that the communist government of Cuba "looks as if it is ready to fall."
(source: Reuters)