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IMF: Oil price is close to April baseline forecast

The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that while oil prices are only 3% higher today than the levels used in its April global growth forecast, physical spot prices continue to be volatile and global reserves keep falling.

Brent crude benchmark futures have dropped in recent days. On Thursday, they were trading at $94.79 per barrel for August delivery, while contracts for delivery in December are currently priced at $86.18. IMF's April World Economic Outlook global growth "reference estimate" was based upon an average oil price per barrel of $82.22 for the year.

The forecast was issued in mid-April, after prices spiked in March. It assumed that the conflict would end quickly, and prices would fall to $76 by 2027. Brent was trading?at $94.80 at the time?the forecast came out.

IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was crucial to the stability of oil prices. She did not say that the IMF reference forecast will hold. She and other IMF officials said previously that the world economy had moved into the "adverse scenario" of the IMF due to the conflict. Growth was expected to fall to 2.5% in this year.

Kozack stated that "the price of oil, and its direction will be very dependent on the length of the war as well as how quickly and when the Strait of Hormuz is reopened."

She stated that the spot price is?higher? than the futures prices, which the IMF uses? to?back up its forecasts. The IMF will therefore take this difference into consideration when it releases its next global forecast update in July. Reporting by David Lawder, Editing by Elaine Hardcastle

(source: Reuters)