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Nickel surges after new mine disruptions and copper reaches record highs
The price of copper soared on Tuesday, as concerns about supply fueled a rally in the early part of the year. Nickel also reached a 15-month high above $18,000 per metric ton due to?Indonesia’s mine production curbs. In official open-outcry trading on the?London Metal Exchange, benchmark three-month copper was up 1.8% to $13,225 per ton. It had earlier jumped by as much as a whopping 3.1% to $13,387.50. Red metal prices have already increased by 6.6% since 2026. On Monday, they crossed $13,000, after a 42.2% increase last year. Ewa Mannthey, ING analyst, said that "Copper's?"move above $13,000" is driven by a growing discrepancy between a structurally tight supply of copper and a accelerating demand for it from?electrification projects and data centres. "Years underinvestment and mine disruptions continue to leave the market with little cushion." A strike at Capstone Copper’s Mantoverde gold and copper mine in northern Chile?has re-invigorated supply concerns. Meanwhile, Chinese copper producer Tongling Nonferrous reported a delay to the?launch of its Ecuadorian mine's second phase. LME Copper Stocks Inventory levels on the Comex exchange have dropped to their lowest level since November 17. The price of copper is expected to rise due to the possibility of a U.S. tariff on the metal, resulting in a shortage of supplies outside the United States. Nickel jumped 6.1% to $18,045 per ton. This is the highest price since October 7, 2024, due to?Indonesia’s plans to reduce output. Miners can refer to the previously approved quotas for 2026 until March 31, while new quotas will be reviewed. Manthey stated that "Indonesia’s tightening of its grip on production, via slower...approvals and planned quota reductions in 2026, has proven to be?highly efficient at raising prices in the short-term." "But with an expected surplus of a significant amount in 2026, the rally is unlikely to continue unless either supply curbs are deepened or demand improves meaningfully." Aluminium increased by 0.8%, reaching $3,111 per ton. Zinc was up 1.5%, at $3,241.50, after hitting its highest level since October 2024. Lead climbed 1.2%, to $2,048. The price of tin rose by 4.6%, to $44,400. It had previously risen as high as 7.4% and reached its highest level since march 2022. (Reporting and editing by Janane Vekatraman, Joe Bavier and Lewis Jackson; Additional reporting and editing by Lewis Jackson and Dylan Duan)
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Venezuelan international bonds continue rallying after Maduro's capture
Venezuela's sovereign international bonds gained?more than 2 cents Tuesday, continuing a rally that began in the previous session. This was fuelled by the optimism of investors following the capture by the U.S. over the weekend of President Nicolas Maduro. Tradeweb data shows that the defaulted 2034 notes accounted for some of the largest gains. They added 2.5 cents to the bid price at 43.01 cents per dollar. Some bonds rose close to 10 cents on Monday. Petroleos de Venezuela bonds also rose in value, with the 2031 bond up by 2 cents and now bid at 42.60cents. Several of the 'bonds are trading at their highest level since Donald?Trump began his first term in January 2017. This marked the beginning of a sharp increase of U.S. sanction regime against Caracas, which saw Venezuela go into sovereign default. Since Trump began his second term, in January 2025, many bonds have nearly tripled in price. Fuelled by Hope For a regime change in Venezuela that would pave the way for a future debt restructuring. Jared Lou, portfolio director at William Blair Investment Management said: "We believe the outlook for debt restructuring could shift significantly, as expectations have improved for the ultimate?recovery of Venezuelan debt." Venezuelan bond values could rise if a credible, structured political transition takes place. This would allow U.S. oil companies to resume operations and enable sovereign debt restructuring. (Reporting and editing by Karin Strohecker; Andrew Heavens, Libby George)
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European stocks are rising, while the dollar is stable. Traders remain optimistic
The European stock markets were up on Tuesday. U.S. stocks?futures also pointed to more gains as traders focused on the key data that will be released later in the week. They showed little reaction?to U.S. President Nicolas Maduro's capture by American forces. The STOXX 600 in Europe closed at a record high on Monday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new all-time record. This was aided by gains made by U.S. financials and oil companies. Tuesday's Asian trading was characterized by a risk-on attitude, while European stocks opened higher. The United States took the Venezuelan president to New York over the weekend and seized him. On Monday, Nicolas Maduro, who was ousted from power in Venezuela, pleaded no contest to charges of narcotics. The markets remained positive Tuesday. At?1217 GMT the STOXX600 was up about 0.2% for the day, after having reached a new high earlier in session. The MSCI World Equity Index rose 0.3% while London's FTSE 100 gained 0.7%. This was largely due to gains in oil and defense stocks. It doesn't seem to be rattling markets in any significant way... Fiona Cincotta is a senior market analyst at City Index. She said that the market does not price in an increase in?risk or a ripple impact of Trump possibly entering other South American nations. S&P futures were unchanged, while Nasdaq was?up by 0.2%. Investors bet that Washington would allow U.S. companies access to Venezuelan oil reserves. The raid on Venezuela boosted the stock of big U.S. Oil Companies on Monday. Reports citing a source familiar with the situation said that U.S. president Donald Trump will meet executives of U.S. companies to discuss increasing Venezuelan oil production later this week. Analysts said that it is too early to determine the impact of Venezuela's oil production. Oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday. Brent crude futures rose 0.5% to $62.07 per barrel. UBS analysts stated in a note that Venezuela's energy infrastructure is in serious disrepair. Any meaningful production recovery will take at least several years. Maria Corina Machado, Venezuela's principal opposition leader, has promised to return as soon as possible and declared her movement prepared to win an election free of charge. Trump has not shown much support for Machado. U.S. ECONOMIC DATA WILL SET THE MARKET TANE The U.S. Dollar was stable, and the dollar index was flat at 98.392. The dollar index was flat at 98.392, after having surged up to a four week high the previous session. The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1710. Markets were buoyed by the expectation of interest rate reductions in the United States. The market was focused on the U.S. employment report due Friday. This will affect the monetary policy expectations of the market. According to LSEG, financial markets are pricing two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. Neel Kazhkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, warned in an interview with CNBC on Monday that the unemployment rate could "pop". However, he said the trend for inflation was slowing. UBS analysts stated that "Kashkari's neutrality may slow down rate cut expectations but we believe continued labor-market weakness and soft macroeconomic data will keep FOMC on course for another rate reduction this quarter, and continue downward pressure on the U.S. Dollar." The yields on ten-year German government bonds fell to 2.8503%, while the yield on euro zone government bonds dropped. Spot gold was trading at around $4,464. Copper reached a new high. (Reporting and editing by Hugh Lawson and Aidan Lewis; Reporting by Elizabeth Howcroft)
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Morgan Stanley predicts that gold will reach $4,800 in the fourth quarter of 2026
Morgan Stanley predicted gold would reach $4,800 an ounce in the fourth quarter, surpassing last year's records. They cited falling interest rates, the change of leadership at the Federal Reserve and central bank and fund purchases. Morgan Stanley also stated in a note dated January 5 that the events of Venezuela over the weekend would likely attract buyers who are looking for a safe place to store their money. However, it did not mention this as one reason why its forecast was $4,800/oz. Bullion reached a record-high of $4,499.71/oz in December and ended 2025 at a gain 64%. This was its best performance for the year since 1979. SAFE HAVENS IN TIMES of UPHEAVOR Traders see gold as a store of 'value in times of economic and political turmoil. It also performs well when interest rates are low, because its non-yielding properties?are less of a financial disadvantage. The bank stated that the peak silver deficit would be in 2025. It also added that China's export licence requirements which came into effect at the beginning of this year have increased the "upside risks for silver". Silver's annual gains in 2025 were the highest ever, soaring 147% on the back of a growing industrial and investor appetite, and a structural deficit. The bank stated that it preferred aluminum and copper in the base metals sector, as both are facing supply issues and increased demand. The note stated that "Aluminium supplies are constrained everywhere but Indonesia while the increasing?Midwest premium suggests some U.S. purchasing may be returning." The report also stated that copper supply disruptions in 2025 would continue into 2026, despite the fact that U.S. imports of copper have increased. The London Metal Exchange's benchmark 3-month copper reached a high of $13,387.50 Tuesday. The bank also highlighted the strength of?nickel, which is driven primarily by the risk of supply disruption in Indonesia. However, it noted that much of this can be priced into the market. Nickel rose 5.8% on Tuesday to $17.980 per ton, its highest level since October 8, 2024. (Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; editing by Barbara Lewis)
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The top cases in the US Supreme Court docket
During its current term, the U.S. Supreme Court weighs a number of important cases involving such issues as presidential powers and tariffs, gun rights, race, transgender sportspeople, campaign finance laws, voting rights, LGBT “conversion therapy”, religious rights, capital punishment, and more. The term began in October, and will run through June. Separately, the court has also acted in emergency cases involving challenges against President Donald Trump's policy. TRUMP TARIFFS During arguments on 5 November, the justices raised questions about the legality and impact of Trump’s sweeping tariffs. This case has implications for the global economic system. It is a test of Trump’s power. Conservative and liberal justices questioned the lawyer for Trump's administration on whether or not a 1977 law intended to be used during national emergencies had given Trump the authority he claimed in order to impose tariffs, or if the president had stepped into the powers of Congress. Some conservative justices also emphasized the inherent authority that presidents have when dealing with foreign nations, suggesting the court may be divided on the case's outcome. Lower courts ruled Trump had overreached by invoking the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act in order to impose tariffs. This was challenged by 12 U.S. States and various businesses. The ruling is expected to be made by the end of June. Birthright Citizenship The court has agreed to rule on the legality Trump's directive restricting birthright citizenship. This is a controversial part of Trump’s efforts to curb immigration, and would change the way a 19th-century constitutional provision was long understood. The lower court blocked Trump’s executive order, which instructed U.S. agencies to refuse to recognize citizenship for children born in the U.S. when neither parent was an American citizen or a legal permanent resident (also known as a "green-card" holder). The court found that Trump's directive violated the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution and federal law codifying the birthright citizenship rights. This ruling was made in response to a class action lawsuit filed by parents and their children who felt threatened by this directive. Arguments in the case have not been scheduled. LOUISIANA ELECTORAL DISTRICTS The conservative justices of the court signaled on October 15, their willingness to undermine another key section in the Voting Right Act, the 1965 landmark law enacted to prevent racial bias in voting. This was during arguments in a case involving Louisiana's electoral districts. The case centers on Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, which prohibits voting maps that dilute the power of minorities without proof of racism. The lower court ruled that the Louisiana electoral map, which divided the six U.S. House of Representatives district into two districts with a majority of Black people instead of one before, violated the Constitutional promise of equal treatment. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. TRUMP'S FIRE OF FED OFFICIAL On January 21, the justices will hear arguments about Trump's bid to remove Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook. This is the first time a president has attempted to fire a Fed officer, as he questions the independence of the central bank. The court refused to decide immediately on a Justice Department's request to put a judge’s order temporarily blocking Trump from removing Cook. Congress created the Fed in 1913 and passed the Federal Reserve Act, which included provisions that shielded the central bank from political interference. The law required governors to only be removed "for cause" by the president, though it did not define this term or establish procedures for removal. Federal Trade Commission Firing The conservative justices of the court have signaled that they will uphold Trump's legality in firing a Federal Trade Commission Member and also give a historical boost to presidential powers while also threatening a 90-year old legal precedent. On December 8, the court heard arguments in the Justice Department appeal of the lower court's ruling that the Republican President exceeded his authority by dismissing Democratic FTC member Rebecca Slaughter before the term she was due to finish. The conservative justices seemed sympathetic to the Trump Administration's argument that tenure protections granted by Congress to heads of independent agencies illegally infringed on presidential powers under the U.S. Constitution. Trump was allowed to remove Slaughter until the case concluded. The court is expected to make a decision by the end June. LGBT 'CONVERSION THERAPEUTY' The conservatives on the court appeared to be ready to support a challenge to a Colorado statute that prohibits psychotherapists from performing "conversion therapy", which aims to change minors' sexual orientation or gender identities. A Christian licensed counselor challenged this law under First Amendment protections from government abridgment. Colorado said that it regulates professional conduct and not speech and has the legal right to prohibit a healthcare practice they deem unsafe and ineffective. A lower court upheld this law. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. TRANSGENDER SPORTS PARTICIPATION On January 13, the court will hear Idaho and West Virginia's bid to enforce their state laws that ban transgender athletes in female sports teams within public schools. This is another civil rights challenge against Republican-backed "restrictions" on transgender individuals. Idaho and West Virginia appealed lower court decisions siding with transgender plaintiffs. Plaintiffs argued the laws discriminate based sex or transgender status, in violation of Title IX civil rights law that prohibits sex discrimination in schools and the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. HAWAII GUNS LAW On January 20, the justices will hear a challenge against a Hawaii Law that restricts the carrying of handguns in public places, such as businesses. This gives the court an opportunity to expand gun rights. Three Hawaii residents who hold concealed carry licenses, and a gun rights group based in Honolulu appealed the lower court's ruling that Hawaii's measure is likely to comply with the U.S. Constitution Second Amendment right of keep and bear arms. Hawaii's concealed carry law requires that licensees obtain the owner's permission before bringing their handguns onto public property. Drug Users and Guns On March 2, the justices will hear arguments from the Trump administration in a Texas case that involves a dual American/Pakistani national to defend a federal gun law which prohibits users of illegal drugs. Hunter Biden, son of former president Joe Biden, was charged under this law in 2023. The Justice Department appealed a lower court ruling which found that the gun restrictions were in violation of the Second Amendment rights to "keep and carry arms" guaranteed by the U.S. Constitution. The Gun Control Act, which was passed in 1968, prohibited gun ownership by drug users. CAMPAIGN FUNDING The court heard arguments in December 9 on a Republican-led attempt to overturn federal limits on spending by parties and candidates coordinated with each other in a case that involved Vice President JDVance. The conservative justices seemed to be sympathetic towards the challenge. However, the three liberal members of the court appeared inclined to maintain the spending limits. The debate centers around whether federal limits on campaign spending coordinated with candidates' input violate First Amendment protections against government abridgment. Vance and Republican challengers have appealed the ruling of a lower court that upheld restrictions regarding the amount of money political parties can spend in campaigns, with input from candidates who they support. This type of spending is called coordinated party expenses. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. MAIL-IN-BALLOTS The Mississippi defense will be heard in the court. Republicans have challenged a Mississippi state law that allows a five-day grace for mail-in votes received after Election Day. This case could lead to stricter voting laws across the United States. A lower court declared illegal the state's law that allows mail-in votes sent by certain voters be counted even if they are postmarked before Election Day, but arrive up to five days after an election. Arguments in this case have not been scheduled. U.S. ASYLUM - PROCESSING: The court agreed to hear Trump's administration's defense that the U.S. government has the authority to limit asylum processing at the ports of entry on the U.S. - Mexico border. The Trump administration appealed the lower court's ruling that the "metering policy" was illegal. This allowed U.S. Immigration officials to stop asylum seekers and refuse to process their claims at the border. Former President Joe Biden rescinded the policy, but Trump has said that he would be open to resuming its use. Arguments in the case have not been scheduled. CRISIS PREGNANCY COUNTER The court seems to be inclined to side with Christian faith-based antiabortion crisis pregnancy centers in New Jersey, in a dispute arising from an investigation by the state attorney general into whether or not these facilities engages in deceptive practice. During the December 2 arguments, a large majority of the Justices appeared to be inclined to revive a lawsuit filed by First Choice Women's Resource Centers against Democratic Attorney General Matthew Platkin's subpoena 2023 seeking information about the organization's doctors and donors. First Choice's facilities are designed to discourage women from getting abortions. The decision is expected to be made by the end June. RASTAFARIAN INMATE The conservative justices seemed inclined to reject the Rastafarian inmate's attempt to sue Louisiana state prison officials after they shaved his head in violation of religious beliefs. On November 10, the case was argued in front of the court under a federal statute protecting incarcerated persons from religious discrimination. Plaintiff Damon Landor whose religion demands that he let his hair grow appealed the decision of a lower court to dismiss his lawsuit, because they found that the statute in question did not allow him?to sue individual officials for financial damages. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. DEATH ROW INMATE The court heard arguments in December in an attempt by Alabama officials in order to pursue the execution for an inmate who was convicted of a murder in 1997 after a lower judge found him intellectually disabled, and therefore ineligible to receive the death penalty. The Republican-led state has appealed a lower court ruling that Joseph Clifton Smith was intellectually disabled based upon his intelligence quotient (IQ), test scores, and expert testimony. In a 2002 Supreme Court decision, the court ruled that executing a person intellectually challenged violated the Eighth Amendment of U.S. Constitution prohibiting cruel and unusual punishment. The Supreme Court is expected to rule by the end June. COX COPYRIGHT DISSERT The court heard arguments in December in an attempt by Cox Communications, a provider of internet services, to avoid financial responsibility in a major copyright lawsuit brought by record labels who accused Cox of allowing its customers to piracy thousands of songs. Justices appeared to be skeptical about Cox's claim that mere knowledge of user piracy was not enough for it to be held liable for copyright violations. A lower court ordered that a new trial be held to determine the amount of money Cox owes Sony Music Group, Warner Music Group Universal Music Group, and other labels in relation to contributory copyright violations. Cox, which is the largest division of privately-owned Cox Enterprises said that the retrial may result in a verdict of up to $1.5 billion against it. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June.
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As markets move past Venezuela's turmoil, European stocks are rising and the dollar is steady.
The stock markets rallied in the early European trading of Tuesday as traders' appetite for risk was not dampened by the U.S. raid on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his capture. Europe's STOXX 600 reached a record high on Monday, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Wall Street also hit new records thanks to gains by U.S. financials and oil companies. Tuesday's Asian trading was characterized by a risk-on attitude, while European stocks opened higher. The United States had taken him to New York over the weekend and seized him. On Monday, Nicolas Maduro, the ousted Venezuelan president, pleaded no contest to drug charges. The STOXX600 was up 0.1% at 1000 GMT after touching a new high earlier in session. The MSCI World Equity Index rose 0.2% while London's FTSE 100 climbed 0.4%. It doesn't seem to be a serious market shiver. Fiona Cincotta is a senior market analyst at City Index. She said that the market does not price in an increase in risk or a ripple impact of Trump possibly stepping into other countries in South America. Investors bet that Washington would allow U.S. companies access to Venezuelan oil reserves. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, plans to meet with executives of U.S. companies to discuss increasing Venezuelan oil production later this week, according to a source familiar with the situation. Analysts said that it is too early to determine the impact of Venezuela's oil production. Oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday. Brent crude futures rose 0.3% to $61.94 per barrel. In a research report, UBS analysts stated that "Venezuela’s energy infrastructure is in a state of severe disrepair. Any meaningful production recovery will at best be a multiyear prospect." U.S. ECONOMIC DATA WILL SET MARKET TANE The U.S. Dollar was steady with the dollar index standing at 98.395. The dollar index was at 98.395 in the last session, which is a steady level. It surged to a four-week-high during the previous session. However, it lost all its gains when a measure for U.S. Manufacturing Activity fell to a fourteen-month-low. The euro was barely changed at $1.1715. Markets were buoyed by expectations of U.S. rate cuts. The traders were focusing on the U.S. employment report due Friday. This will affect market expectations on monetary policy. According to LSEG, financial markets are pricing in at least two Federal Reserve rate reductions this year. Neel Kazhkari, Minneapolis Fed president, warned that the unemployment?rate may "pop" up in a CNBC interview Monday. However, he said inflation was slowly on the decline. UBS analysts stated that "while Kashkari’s neutral stance could slow expectations for rate cuts, we believe continued labor market weakness will keep the FOMC in line for another rate reduction this quarter. This will maintain downward pressure on US dollar." PMI data revealed that the euro-zone economy grew at a slower rate last month, but had its best quarterly growth for more than two year's by 2025. Prices rose less than expected in France but 1.8% more in Germany's largest state. After the data was released, euro zone government bond rates dropped. The benchmark German ten-year yield is now at 2.8561%. Gold spot prices were around $4,451, which is a week-high. Copper reached a new high. (Reporting and editing by Elizabeth Howcroft, Hugh Lawson).
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Indian shares fall from near record levels as Reliance and HDFC Bank weigh
Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank and other heavyweight stocks weighed on the Indian equity benchmarks, which fell from near-record highs Tuesday. Quarterly business updates also influenced stock movements. The Nifty 50 dropped?0.27% at 26,178.7, and the Sensex fell 0.44% at 85,063.34. In two sessions, the indexes have fallen by 0.6% and 0.8%. Ten of 16 major sectors rose. The small-caps and the mid-caps both fell by 0.2%. Reliance Industries' stock, which is the second-heaviest on the benchmarks index, fell 4.5%. This was its steepest percentage drop in a single day since the announcement of the general election results for India, June 4, 2024. Reliance announced that it did not expect Russian crude to be delivered in January, after U.S. president Donald Trump warned Washington would raise tariffs against India for its oil purchases. Vinod Nair is the head of research for Geojit Investments. He said that Trump's negative rhetoric could be detrimental to India's stock market at a time when it was anticipating the capping U.S. Tariffs at 25%, down from 50%, and the finalisation of the full trade agreement. Reliance shares were also affected by concerns about rising competition in the retail segment, following Trent's less-than-expected growth in sales for the December quarter. Shares of the apparel retailer fell 8.6% in one day. CLSA has also removed the Reliance model from its India portfolio. HDFC Bank, India's largest private bank, dropped by 1.6% on Tuesday, adding to the 2.4% drop of Monday, due to concerns about slower deposit growth. ICICI Bank jumped 2,9% and led the financials by 0.3% on optimism?over improvements in credit growth and earnings?for the sector?in December quarter. JSW Steel fell 0.8% while Tata Steel was at a high after reports that companies had violated antitrust laws. Apollo Hospitals rose 3.7% to top the Nifty gainers after Citi raised the price target on the stock due to strong earnings visibility.
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Machado, Maduro's opponent, vows to return and wants elections
Maria Corina Machado, Venezuela's principal opposition leader, has promised to return to Venezuela as soon as possible. She praised U.S. president Donald Trump for toppling Nicolas Maduro her rival and declared her movement prepared to win an election free of charge. "I plan to return to Venezuela as quickly as possible," said Machado. Machado is a 58-year-old lawyer and mother of three who fled Venezuela in October in disguise to accept the Nobel Peace Prize. She dedicated it to Trump. She told Fox News late Monday that she believed the transition should continue. "We won an election in?2024, by a large margin under fraudulant conditions. We will get over 90% of votes in free and fair elections. Machado stated that she hadn't spoken to Trump since the Nobel Prize was announced on October 10. He said that the United States must help Venezuela resolve its problems before holding new elections. We must first fix the country. It's impossible to hold an election. Trump said that there was no way people could vote. VENEZUELA IS STILL RULED BY SOCIALISTS AND PARTY LIYALISTS Machado, in her first interview since Maduro's capture by the U.S. last weekend, did not reveal her location, nor any details about her plans to return to Venezuela where she is wanted for arrest, and Socialist Party supporters remain at power. Trump's lack of support for Machado has disappointed opposition activists as well as the diaspora, which is one fifth of Venezuelans who left the country during the economic collapse under Maduro or his predecessor Hugo Chavez. Trump, the opposition and some international observers believe that the opposition lost the 2024 elections, in which Machado had been banned from running and an ally was chosen instead. However, Trump says she does not have support in Venezuela. The?U.S. The?U.S. Machado stated that Delcy Rodriguez is "one of the principal architects of torture and corruption." Machado said that Delcy Rodriguez is a "main ally, liaison, and agent of Russia, China and Iran. She's not someone who can be trusted by investors from around the world, and she has been rejected by Venezuelans." GRATITUDE AND THANKS TO TRUMP Machado has been a 'full-throated' defender of Trump. She said she would personally award him the Nobel prize. "He has proved to the world what his means. "January 3rd, will be remembered as the day that justice overcame a tyranny", she said about Saturday's raid in Venezuela. "I want to express today, on behalf of Venezuelans, our gratitude for his courage and the historical actions that he took against this narco terrorist regime. It's an important step in the direction of a democratic transformation." Machado said that Venezuela, with the world's largest oil reserves and the U.S., as its principal ally, would become the hub of energy in the Americas. It would also restore the rule of law, establish open markets, return exiles to their homelands and offer security for foreign investment. Sources said that for now, Trump was told by the CIA, that Rodriguez and senior officials?from Maduro’s government are best suited to maintain stability. The government has ordered the arrests of those who have collaborated in the capture of Maduro. In a sign that the atmosphere is tense in Venezuela, fourteen journalists were briefly detained on Monday while covering events in Caracas. Video footage verified by shows shots fired into the night skies in Caracas. A Venezuelan official claimed that this was done by police to discourage unauthorised drones. In a message to reporters, Simon Arrechider, vice minister of communication, said: "There was not a confrontation. The entire country is calm." MADURO PLEADS NOT GUILTY IN NEW YORK ?COURT Maduro, who is 63 years old, denied the charges of narcotics on Monday. He claimed to be a "decent person" and that he was still President of Venezuela, while shackled around the ankles in orange and beige prison garb. Cilia Flores pleaded guilty to being captured with him. The next court date is March 17, Maduro faces four criminal charges: narcoterrorism, cocaine importation conspiracies, and possession of machine guns and destructive devices. He has denied these allegations for years, claiming they are a ruse to hide imperialist intentions on Venezuela's oil resources. Venezuela is the country with the largest oil reserves in the world - 303 billion barrels of heavy crude, mostly in the Orinoco area. The sector has been declining for years due to mismanagement, lack of investment and the?U.S. The sanctions have resulted in a 1.1 million barrels per day average last year. This is a third less than the output of the 1970s. Maduro's Vice President, Rodriguez, was sworn in to be the interim leader. Officials in Caracas are torn between angered defiance and possible cooperation with Trump who has threatened a military strike again if they do not please him. Russia, China, and Venezuela's socialist allies have condemned Trump's actions. It is the largest U.S. invasion in Latin America since 1989's invasion of Panama. Legal experts have questioned the validity of this action, and many allies are calling for adherence to international law and dialogue. Trump said that the U.S. now controls Venezuela and is working with private companies to revive the oil industry. (Reporting and writing by Bureau worldwide, editing by Timothy Heritage).
Analysts predict that Venezuelan oil production will increase in the future and lower prices.
Oil analysts say that the?crude production?in Venezuela will increase in time, following a 'dramatic U.S. attack and the capture of its President. This is likely to raise?global supplies?and weigh on prices long-term.
American forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas on the weekend. U.S. president Donald Trump announced that Washington would seize control of the oil producing nation, and that the U.S. oil embargo remained fully effective.
According to the London-based Energy Institute, the Organization?of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) member has about 17% global oil reserves or 303 billion barils, ahead of OPEC leader Saudi Arabia.
Venezuela produced a staggering?3.5m barrels of crude oil per day in the 1970s. This was over 7% more than the global output at that time. The production fell below 2,000,000 bpd in the 2010s, and was averaging 1.1 million bpd on average last year. This represents just 1% of global oil output.
JPMorgan analysts, led by Natasha Kaneva, said in a report that Venezuelan oil production could increase to 1.3-1.4m bpd in two years, and possibly reach 2.5m bpd during the next decade. Currently, it is around 800,000 bpd.
The note continued, "These dynamics do not appear in the curve at the back end of oil futures."
Goldman Sachs analysts, led by Daan Stuyven, said in a note dated January 4, that any recovery in production was likely to be gradual and would require substantial investments.
Analysts estimated that oil prices would fall by $4 per barrel in 2030 if Venezuela's crude production rose to 2,000,000 bpd.
Goldman analysts say that Venezuela's oil production in the short-term will be affected by the U.S. sanctions policy.
They added that "we see Venezuela as a source of ambiguous, but modest risks for oil prices on the short term? depending on how U.S. policy changes."
Goldman's forecasts for 2026 oil prices remained unchanged. Brent's average price is $56 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate's at $52 per barrel. Venezuela's oil production in 2026 will remain flat at 900,000. (Reporting and editing by Lincoln Feast, Muralikumar Aantharaman and Florence Tan)
(source: Reuters)