Latest News
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Report: Global crises disrupt efforts to get millions of people to stop smoking
A report released by 57 advocacy groups on Friday said that the COVID-19 pandemic combined with climate change and wars has hampered global governments' plans for reducing tobacco use. This has stalled efforts to get 95 million people to quit smoking. As part of a plan to achieve global sustainable development goals, governments had hoped to reduce the smoking rate among adults over 15 years old by 30% from 2010 to 2025. The timeline for achieving the goal has been extended by five extra years in 2024, as other priorities have pushed countries away from implementing the World Health Organization tobacco control treaty signed by 168 nations. The report was submitted to the U.N. Economic and Social Council which oversees sustainable development globally. The report states that while governments have reduced the number of smokers globally, they failed to reach the 30% reduction goal. This means 1,207.800,000. people still smoke worldwide, rather than the target of 1.112,400,000. The report, published by Action on Smoking and Health Canada and supported by Cancer Research UK, Campaign for Tobacco Free Kids and others, warned that delays could lead to millions of deaths due to tobacco use. The U.N. acknowledged that the lack of funding, geopolitical tensions, and pandemic-related disruptions had pushed the world away from most of the 17 broad-ranging Sustainable Development Goals. These goals include reducing poverty and hunger, and increasing access to healthcare and educational opportunities. The groups who endorsed ASH Canada’s report urged the government to redouble its efforts in tobacco control policies, such as tax increases or smoking bans.
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Thyssenkrupp puts 20,000 jobs in danger during overhaul, union says
A senior official at Germany's IG Metall union said that a fifth or more of the jobs at Thyssenkrupp are at risk. This is in response to recent plans by the conglomerate to become a holding company. Thyssenkrupp announced on Monday that it will pursue plans to divest minority stakes in at least three of its five business divisions. The other two, submarines and steel, are already being spun off, or partially divested. The plans could result in the loss of more than 20,000 jobs, Juergen Kerner told Sueddeutsche Zeitung. Thyssenkrupp announced that it would cut or outsource as many as 11,000 jobs in its steel division TKSE. It also plans to cut around 1,800 positions at its automotive unit. Kerner stated that the supervisory board of Thyssenkrupp will meet in June and approve the spin-off plan for the group's submarine and warship division TKMS. This is expected to happen later this year. Kerner then turned his attention to the steel industry, criticizing Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky who, last year, bought a stake of 20% in TKSE. He is now in negotiations to buy another 30%, contingent on a deal to reduce jobs with workers. Kerner stated that he now considered Kretinsky to be less and less the right buyer. He added that the billionaire had refused to share his plans for more than an year. (Written by Friederike Hiene and Christoph Steitz, edited by Matthias Williams and Susan Fenton).
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Panama claims that the maintenance plan for First Quantum Copper Mine is not a re-start
A top trade official announced on Friday that Panama had approved First Quantum Minerals’ maintenance plan for the closed copper mine. However, the site was not restarted. The Trade and Industry Minister Julio Molto stated that the plan includes environmental safety measures which are necessary after the abrupt shutdown by government order of the previous administration in late 2023. The mine will not be reopened. Molto said at a press briefing that we are authorizing the implementation the care and safety management plan in order to protect the environment. He did not mention the cost of the plan or the expected timeframe. Molto said that officials from the Environment Ministry and the government would be monitoring the process to make sure that the copper stockpiles could eventually ship. According to him, experts believe that the process could take between three and six months, taking into account environmental measures. Molto stated that "supervision will be conducted to ensure this material can extracted and processed as best as possible so that it may then be exported." Canadian First Quantum said that it would be launching in March. арука - The mine is currently under investigation, with the aim of restarting talks with the Panamanian government about the future use of the site. The closing of the Cobre Panama copper mine, which contributed 1% to the global production of copper, has affected both Panama and the company's prospects. Reporting by Elida Moreno, Writing by Daina Solomon; Editing and proofreading by Aida Pelaez-Fernandez
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Inflation data ahead of the stock market's best month since 2023
The dollar flirted with its first annual rise on Friday, as traders awaited key U.S. data on inflation and Washington's latest fluttering about tariffs. Investors have tried to ride the roller coaster of news this week after a U.S. federal appeals court temporarily restored tariffs that were temporarily blocked by a U.S. district court. The initial decline in European stock prices on Friday was followed by gains of 0.3% to 0.8% despite this. Unexpected dip Mixed results in German retail sales Inflation numbers Wall Street futures fell ahead of the PCE inflation data, which is due to be released before the opening bell. The main MSCI world index has risen over 5% in the last month, while the dollar is tantalizingly near to its first month of positive growth since 2025. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rates, which are a proxy of U.S. borrowing cost, rose again in European trading after falling following soft economic data on Thursday and a strong 7-year bond sale. Investors were also alarmed by a provision that was not widely publicized in Trump's proposed budget. This would have allowed the government to tax foreign investments up to 20 percent. Elias Haddad, a Brown Brothers Harriman strategy, said that the foreign tax provision of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act was alarming. He added that the uncertainty increased the risk of stagflation where the inflation remains high but the economic growth stagnates. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, Personal Consumption Expenditure data (PCE), is due to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. This could influence bets about whether or not the U.S. will cut interest rates again this year. Trump invited Fed Chair Jerome Powell for their first face to face meeting since taking office in January. He told Powell that he had made a mistake by not lowering the interest rates. The Fed has responded with a Statement Its decisions "will be based on the latest economic data". OPTIMISM EMERGING The oil prices are on course for a second successive weekly decline on expectations of a further OPEC+ production hike. However, they were still up on the day as well as for the entire month. Nikkei sank overnight, after a near 2% rise the day before. Investors were also worried about Japan's high debt levels in the wake of a disappointing 40-year bond sale this week and tariffs. The yen gained as much as 2 percent from its Thursday low and was trading at less than 144 dollars per yen in London. The euro and the pound both fell 0.3% and 0.1% to $1.13 and $1.3 respectively. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.2% in Asia. Apple suppliers were also hit by the U.S. reversal of tariffs. Blue chips on the mainland also fell 0.5%, despite both posting solid gains for the month. Korean stocks performed even better than the world index, achieving their best month in November 2023. In the meantime, an index that tracks emerging market currencies has gained 2% in a month. This is the best performance since November 2023. Gold prices on the rise have helped Ghana cedi to rocket by nearly 40% in this month. Rodrigo Catril is a senior FX Strategist at National Australia Bank. He said that Trump's trade agenda was still alive and well, but the legal battle added yet another layer to uncertainty. He said, "The only thing more certain than more uncertainty is more certainty." The Trump administration has said that despite the courtroom dramas, negotiations with the top trading partners are continuing apace. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News in an interview that he would be meeting with a high level Japanese delegation on Friday evening in Washington. However, he admitted that talks with China had "a little stalled".
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Miner Vale missed deadline for expansion of Brazil Nickel complex
After missing the deadline for confirming the bid, Brazilian power grid operator ONS denied Vale's request that it increase electricity consumption at its northern Onca Puma Nickel complex. Vale is preparing to launch a second Onca Puma furnace, a $555-million expansion that will help boost nickel production for the miner in the coming years. Vale said that it would still operate the new furnace, despite being denied the request. From around 160,000 tons of nickel last year, the miner aims to increase its global production to 250,000 tons by 2030. The second Onca Puma furnace is expected to increase annual production by 15,200 tons. ONS documents seen showed Vale asking for an increase in power consumption to 200 megawatts by the beginning of this year. ONS has issued documents over the last year attesting the viability and increase in power consumption at Onca Puma. However, ONS stated that Vale failed to sign the contract by the deadline. Vale submitted a new request to ONS in February. Vale asked for an increase in power consumption at Onca Puma that would begin in June. The national grid operator denied the request saying that the extra power was allocated to a different project in their pipeline. Vale said it was evaluating "technical options" with ONS in order to get its request for Onca Puma expanded approved. The miner expects the matter to be resolved soon. Onca Puma's nominal nickel production capacity is around 27,000 tonnes per year. Vale's nickel production was around 10% at the Onca Puma complex last year. Reporting by Leticia fucuchima from Sao Paulo, and Marta Nogueira from Rio de Janeiro. Editing by Sarah Morland & Chris Reese
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Russia will provide support to the coal industry
The Russian government announced on Friday that it has agreed to support a struggling coal industry by deferring taxes and limiting bonuses and dividends to the top management. Russian coal producers are facing a number challenges, such as international sanctions in relation to Ukraine. According to the Russian government, coal exports dropped by almost 8% last year to 213 millions tonnes, but production increased 1.3% to reach 438 million tons. In 2022, the European Union, who previously relied on Russia to provide around 45% its coal imports for their own use, will ban supplies from Russia. According to the government's measures, Russian coal firms will be granted deferrals of mineral extraction taxes (MET) as well as insurance contributions until 1 December 2025. According to the government, debt-ridden companies may be able to restructure their debts, while taking into consideration the Central Bank of Russia's position. According to NEFT Research, Russia's coal imports are declining because of international sanctions and rising transportation costs. The data cited by the energy ministry showed that, since 2022, the Russian coal industry has lost 1.2 trillion Russian roubles (15 billion dollars) due to sanctions. This includes the loss of lucrative European markets and the difficulty in receiving payment for supplies.
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The oil price outlook is weakened by OPEC+ and lingering trade worries
A poll revealed that analysts have revised their oil price predictions down for the third month in a row as OPEC+'s soaring supply and the uncertainty surrounding the impact of trade wars on fuel demand continue to weigh on prices. In a survey conducted by 40 economists and analysts, a forecast of Brent crude at $66.98 per bar in 2025 was lowered from the $68.98 estimate made in April. U.S. crude, however, is forecast to be $63.35, which is lower than last month's $65.08 estimate. According to LSEG, prices have averaged around $71.08 and $67.56 so far this year. Tobias Keller is an analyst at UniCredit. He said that while tensions between the U.S. Keller said that "on the supply side oil prices are heavily influenced by OPEC+'s production decisions while geopolitical tensions... continue to pose risks of disruption and volatility in price." Eight OPEC+ member countries began to unwind their output cuts in the first quarter of this year. They agreed on higher-than-expected increases for May and July, totaling 411,000 bpd. Sources have said that the members could decide to increase output for July during a Saturday meeting. The move is "driven by a desire not to support oil prices, but rather punish members who do not comply." Compliance will be difficult to enforce, particularly in Kazakhstan", said Suvro Sarkar. Lead energy analyst at DBS Bank. Analysts polled by predict that global oil demand will grow an average of 775, 000 barrels per day by 2025. Many cite elevated trade uncertainty and economic slowdown risk as the main concerns. The International Energy Agency forecasted a 740,000 barrels per day average growth in 2025. Norbert Ruecker is the head of Economics & Next Generation Research at Julius Baer. He said that with U.S. and China oil consumption constrained by fuel-efficiency gains, economic insecurity and the shift towards electric mobility, the "growth of demand" comes primarily from the resource countries themselves. The war between Russia and Ukraine continues to increase the geopolitical risks for oil. Analysts claim that markets have priced in uncertainty. Sarkar said that "potential de-escalation and the possibility of lifting Russian oil sanctions could further lower prices."
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Nigeria offers tax reductions on oil to reduce costs
The Nigerian president Bola Tinubu signed an executive order that introduces a framework based on performance for operators in the oil sector. This is designed to tie tax incentives to cost savings that can be verified. The new Upstream Petroleum Operations cost Efficiency Incentives order 2025 will provide tax relief to operators who implement cost reductions that are industry standard in shallow-water, onshore and deep-offshore fields. The tax credit will not exceed 20% of the operator's tax liability. Tinubu stated in a press release that "This Order sends a message to the world: We are building an efficient and competitive oil and gas industry for Nigerians." It is about creating jobs and securing the future of Nigeria. Analysts believe that success is largely dependent on the implementation. President Tinubu stressed the importance of aligning government agencies in his announcement. Clementine Waltlop, director of Horizon Engage's sub-Saharan Africa division, said that if Nigeria succeeds in this area it could have a significant impact on the country's appeal to investors. This order is an important part of the ongoing reforms by the government to boost competitiveness in the sector. In order to increase the appeal of offshore drilling, Nigeria last year offered a 25% allowance on gas-utilisation investments for equipment and plants for both new and ongoing projects. It also began streamlining its contracting process. While these incentives haven't resulted in new investments, they have encouraged a few farmers to return to their existing fields. (Reporting and editing by David Evans; Isaac Anyaogu)
IMF lowers its 2025 Middle East and North Africa growth forecast by 2.6% due to global risks
The International Monetary Fund announced on Thursday that it expects the Middle East and North Africa economy to grow only 2.6% by 2025, as uncertainty stemming a trade war in the world and lower oil prices are weighing on this region.
The new projection was a significant downgrade from the October projection, which predicted 4% growth. This comes at a time when the region is grappling with geopolitical tensions and a softer external market.
In an interview, Jihad Azour said, "Uncertainty can impact real economy, consumption and investment... All these elements have led to a softerening of projections."
The direct impact of tariffs is limited due to the limited integration of trade between the U.S. and the region.
In its latest Regional Economic Outlook released in Dubai, the IMF pointed out a gradual improvement in oil production as well as protracted regional conflict and delayed structural reforms in Egypt.
The report stated that "the ongoing conflicts in MENA have left profound economic scars and deep humanitarian costs," adding that it has had a severe impact on the region's oil-importing economies.
In 2025, the MENA non oil importers will see a real GDP increase of 3.4%, compared to an earlier forecast that predicted 3.6%.
DIVERGING OUTLOOKS
The growth of non-Gulf Cooperation Council (non-GCC) oil exporters will slow down by one percentage point - a sharply downward revision – before staging a modest rebound in 2026.
The GCC economy is projected to grow, but at a slower rate than in October. This is due to the extended OPEC+ production cuts that will continue through April. There will also be a gradual phase out by 2026 and a weaker non-oil sector.
Azour stated that "with all these changes and obstacles, it is important to also seek new trade partners," referring to GCC. The GCC comprises Bahrain, Kuwait Oman, Qatar Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates.
IMF predicts GCC GDP growth of 3.2% for 2025, down from the 4.2% it predicted in October.
GCC countries are stepping up their efforts to diversify economies. Initiatives like Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, and the UAE’s push in tourism, logistics, and manufacturing aim to reduce reliance on hydrocarbons.
Azour stated that "trade diversification, structural reforms accelerated, and productivity improvement are all elements which will help non-oil sectors to maintain a high level of growth." (Reporting by Manya Saini in Dubai Editing by Shri Navaratnam)
(source: Reuters)