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Kabul reports dozens of civilian deaths in Pakistani border operation.
Pakistan's security forces said that they killed 29 militants in ground and air operations near the Afghanistan border on Monday. The Afghan Taliban claimed at least 38 civilians were killed by airstrikes. The Pakistani air force launched its second attack on militant targets in Afghanistan, which it claimed belonged to them, on Sunday. This assault threatened to escalate the intermittent conflict between former allies who fought their most intense battle in many years in February. Attaullah Terar, the Information Minister, said that Pakistani airstrikes against three targets in Afghanistan's provinces Paktia Paktika Kunar, killed 25 militants, while destroying a "large quantity" of?weapons, ammunition and other materials. In the Bajaur district, the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa's northern border, four more militants linked to the Jamaat-ul-Ahrar group of Pakistan's Taliban have been killed during ground attacks. Hamdullah fitrat, the spokesperson for Afghanistan's government, stated that the strikes killed 38 civilians, including women and children, and injured 163. He said that the majority of casualties were caused by Pakistani jets which bombed a house in Paktia Province, killing 28 people and injuring another 158. Khalid Ahmad Sajad said that residents rushed to aid the injured when a second airstrike occurred. He told a news conference that "while they were rescuing the victims, Pakistani forces launched a 2nd airstrike at the same location." Tarar said Pakistan is responding to "recent terrorist incidents", including the?Saturday Jamaat-ul-Ahrar gun and bomb attack on a Sindh Rangers' facility in Karachi, which killed three of its soldiers?and injured another four? In a message posted on X, he stated that "Security Forces precisely struck?terrorist camp and safe havens." Islamabad accuses Kabul that it harbours militants, whom it blames for plotting terrorist attacks in Pakistan. The Afghan Taliban rejects the allegations, saying that militancy in Pakistan is a problem. Reporting by Mohammad Yunus Yawar, Bipasha dey, and Shilpa jamkhandikar, in Kabul; writing by Saad sayeed; editing by Chris Reese Kate Mayberry, and Clarence Fernandez
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US and Iran renew their talks following strikes
After a halt to tit-fortat attacks between Iran and the United States, copper prices rose on Monday. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most active copper contract gained 1.32%, closing?daytime?trading?at 103,160 Yuan ($15186.44) per metric ton. As of 0700 GMT, the benchmark three-month copper price on London Metal Exchange increased by 0.34% to $14,403.50 per ton. A U.S. official announced on Sunday that Iran and the United States had agreed to cease recent hostilities and resume talks about?their dispute regarding the Strait of Hormuz. This has raised hopes of salvaging an interim peace agreement. The Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important shipping route for energy, is located in this region. A disruption in the Strait of Hormuz can increase oil prices, cause inflation fears and affect risk appetite. The dollar added to the previous three sessions' decline ?on Monday, providing support ?for the greenback-denominated commodities by making them more affordable for investors using other currencies. The dollar is still near the one-year high it reached on 24th June. Official data released on Saturday showed that industrial profits in China grew less rapidly in May but remained double-digits. National Bureau of Statistics data showed that the growth in profit at China's industrial companies slowed to 21.1% from a previous year in May, down from 24.7% in April. Profits grew 18.8% from January to May, compared to an 18.2% rise in the first 4 months. The non-ferrous ore mining and processing industry's profits jumped by 93.9% between January-May. Meanwhile, downstream manufacturers were still under pressure. Aluminium gained 0.68% on SHFE. Zinc? climbed 2.45%. Lead dropped by 0.12%. Nickel added 0.24%. Tin rose 1.71%. The?LME saw aluminium gain 0.46%. Zinc gained 0.94%. Lead added 0.37%. Nickel firmed 0.63%. Tin increased 1.09%. $1 = 6.7929 Chinese Yuan Renminbi (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair; Lewis Jackson)
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Gold falls as new US-Iran strikes increase oil and Fed rate hike bets weigh
Gold prices?reduced on Monday, as the recent U.S. - Iran?strikes in the Gulf pushed up oil prices. Expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes also weighed on this non-yielding material. As of 0602 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.8%, at $4,057.77 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell 0.6% to $4072.20. Metal was heading for a fourth consecutive monthly loss of 10.5%. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said: "U.S.-Iran were back at it over the weekend with new military strikes reported from both parties. This casts doubt on how long oil will remain at these low?levels, and thus the outlook of inflation and interest rates." After Iran launched missiles, drones and other weapons at U.S. military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain early Sunday morning, just a few hours after the U.S. Donald Trump has threatened to eliminate the Iranian leadership, if it does not adhere to the agreement that ends their war. Axios reported that Tehran and Washington had agreed to cease recent hostilities and resume talks about their dispute regarding the Strait of Hormuz. In a high-interest-rate environment, gold loses its appeal because it is a non-yielding investment. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders expect three Fed rate increases this year. They are pricing in an 80% chance that a December hike will occur. Investors will be watching for the June ADP employment data and the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls data due this week to gauge the Fed's policy stance. Waterer said that "Gold could reach $5,000 again this year, but it would depend on a further de-escalation of the conflict and oil moving back to its pre-war level to reduce the inflationary impact. Silver fell by 0.9% per ounce to $58.64, platinum rose 0.1% to 1,616.55 while palladium rose 1.0% to $1,221.29. (Reporting and editing by Sherry Phillips, Subhranshu Sahu, and Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru)
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Sources say China is accelerating plans to launch sulphur futures contracts as the Iran war increases price swings.
Sources say that China plans to launch the first sulphur contracts this year in an effort to hedge against price fluctuations?and to increase its pricing strength in the global market for a key material used in agriculture and mining. Two sources who are familiar with the issue said that the Dalian Commodity Exchange may?list? the sulphur contracts in the fourth-quarter of this year. However, the timeframe has not been finalised, and there are still more approvals needed. The Dalian exchange has not responded to multiple requests for comment. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSR), which usually approves?exchanges to launch futures contracts of a new product?, did not respond immediately to a'request for comments. One source said that the exchange had long planned to introduce these contracts. However, work has increased since the Iran War exacerbated volatility and highlighted the need for an hedging tool. China, the world's biggest consumer of sulphur imports around 50% of its supply every year. Customs data revealed that imports during the first five month period had more than halved from the previous year. Sulphur can be used in the production of fertilisers, in nickel and copper refining and mining, and for other applications. The sulphur price had been increasing for many years prior to the war with Iran, because half of the world's seaborne shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The spot price of solid sulphur was 11,850 yuan (1,743.16) per ton in eastern China earlier this month. However, they slid to 9,043.5 yuan (?9,043.5) per ton last Friday, as sulphur transited the Strait again, according to Shanghai Metals Market data. Prices are still 292% higher than they were at the same point last year. Analysts at Huatai Futures stated in a Friday?note that the futures contracts could help users hedge the risk of price swings. The note did not specify a specific date but referred to the plans. They added that the contracts will help to strengthen China's pricing strength in the global sulphur market by allowing the industry to have visible commercial inventories on the exchange.
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MORNING BID EUROPE - Markets pivot on technology, Mideast anxiety
Ankur Banerjee gives us a look at what the European and global markets will be like today. The latest tit for tat attacks in the Middle East were stopped, causing a nervous reaction on the markets. Persistent unease about stretched 'tech valuations' and the prospect?of higher rates for longer added to doubts over a ceasefire which has been struggling to hold. The oil prices have risen on the back of renewed hostilities, but they've also slowed down as new talks raise hopes for an interim agreement. This helped lift U.S. stock futures and European stock prices, though Asian equities remain under pressure due to investors' concerns over stretched tech valuations as well as the drag of a stronger dollar. Investors are unsure if massive investments in AI infrastructure will be a success. Apple's price increases underscored that while?Micron’s strong earnings forecast from last week indicated an insatiable desire for memory chips. The dollar was hovering near its one-year high and cast a shadow over most currencies, but none more than the Japanese yen at 161,78 per dollar. The only thing that keeps the 'fragile yen' from falling below the 40-year lows at 161,96 is the prospect of another round of intervention. The Japanese government intervened in the market in order to stop the decline of the yen in April and early May, but as with previous episodes in the years 2022 and 20,24, the intervention failed to alter the trajectory of the yen. Markets are betting that the Federal Reserve will raise rates this year. The yen, therefore, needs a dramatic move from 'the Bank of Japan' to make a real comeback. Economic events in the Eurozone: Euro zone sentiment surveys, June (By Ankur banerjee from Singapore Edited by Shri Navaratnam).
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Gold falls as new US-Iran strikes increase oil and Fed rate hike bets weigh
Gold prices?eased? on Monday, as the recent U.S. - Iran?strikes in the Gulf pushed up oil prices. Expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes also weighed on this non-yielding material. As of 0423 GMT, spot gold was down 0.6%, at $4,062.89 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery fell 0.5% to $4077.50. Metal was heading for a fourth consecutive monthly loss of 10.4%. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said: "U.S.-Iran were back at it over the weekend with new military strikes reported from both parties. This casts doubt on how long oil will remain at these low?levels, and thus the outlook of inflation and interest rates." After Iran launched missiles, drones and other weapons at U.S. military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain early Sunday morning, just a few hours after the U.S. Donald Trump has threatened to eliminate the Iranian leadership, if it does not adhere to the agreement that ends their war. Axios reported that Tehran and Washington had agreed to cease recent hostilities and resume talks about their dispute regarding the Strait of Hormuz. In a high-interest-rate environment, gold loses its appeal because it is a non-yielding investment. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders expect three Fed rate increases this year. They are pricing in an 80% chance that a December hike will occur. Investors will be watching for the June ADP employment data and the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls data due this week to gauge the Fed's policy stance. Waterer said that "gold could reach $5,000 again this year, but it would depend on a further de-escalation of the conflict and oil moving back to its pre-war level to reduce the inflationary impact. Silver spot fell by 1.2%, to $58.47 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.2%, to $1617.15, and palladium increased 0.4%, to $1213.60. (Reporting and editing by Sherry Phillips, Subhranshu Sahu, and Pablo Sinha from Bengaluru)
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Gold falls as new US-Iran strikes increase oil and Fed rate hike bets weigh
Gold prices?reduced on Monday, as the recent U.S. - Iran?strikes in the Gulf pushed up oil prices. Expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes also weighed on this non-yielding material. As of 0242 GMT, spot gold was down 0.7%, at $4,061.35 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery lost 0.5%, to $4076.40. Metal was heading for a fourth consecutive monthly loss of 10.4%. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said: "U.S.-Iran were back at it over the weekend with new military?strikes from both parties. This casts doubt on how long oil will remain at these low?levels, and thus over the broader outlook of inflation and interest rates." Oil prices rose after Iran launched missiles & drones early Sunday morning at U.S. Military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, just hours after U.S. president Donald Trump had threatened to wipe out Iranian leadership if it did not adhere to the agreement for the end of their war. Axios reported that Tehran and Washington had agreed to cease recent hostilities and resume talks about their dispute regarding the Strait of Hormuz. In a high-interest-rate environment, gold loses its appeal because it is not yielding. According to CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in an 80% chance that the Fed will raise rates again this December. Investors will now be watching for the June?ADP Employment Data and the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Data, both due later this week, in order to gauge the Fed's policy. Waterer said that "Gold could reach $5,000 again this year, but it would depend on further de-escalation and oil moving back to pre-war levels to reduce the inflationary effect of the war, as well as a soft dollar." Spot silver dropped 1.1% at $58.51 an ounce. Platinum rose 1% to $1630.13 and palladium increased 0.8% to $1218.92.
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Oil prices rise after renewed US-Iran strikes in Middle East
Oil prices increased on Monday following days of titt-for-tat attacks?by the United States and Iran?in the Middle East, which highlighted the fragility of the interim peace agreement and once again slowed down energy shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures rose 52 cents or 0.672% to $72.51 per barrel at 2313 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up 71 cents or 1.03%, trading at $69.94. Brent crude dropped 10.6% last weekend, its third consecutive weekly decline. Crude shipments through the Strait increased last week to the highest level since February, when the U.S. - Israel conflict with Iran began. Traffic has slowed since Thursday after renewed attacks against ships in the Strait, including an oil tanker linked to Qatar, which triggered strikes by the U.S. ANZ analysts wrote in a report that "the?market will likely re-evaluate their assumption of a rapid recovery of oil supplies from the Persian Gulf." Axios reported that Iran and the United States had agreed to stop recent hostilities and resume talks about their dispute over Strait of Hormuz in Qatar, in order to cap oil price gains. ? Could not confirm immediately the report. Aramco, the Saudi oil giant, resumed crude oil loadings at its Ras Tanura Terminal, west of Strait of Hormuz on Friday after they had been halted for almost four months. They joined a rush to move cargoes following a flurry of activity by Middle East producers who increased oil and gas production and exports in anticipation of an interim agreement. ANZ analysts stated that despite the U.S. Iran deal being a 'turning point' for oil markets, physical flow is constrained by damaged infrastructure, tanker backlogs and production shutdowns. It could be another year before the supply reaches pre-conflict level. Even after the crash of a company helicopter on Sunday on the east coast of the Gulf in Ras Tanura, 14 people were killed, loadings at Aramco's Ras Tanura Terminal continued. State news agency reported that the cause of the accident was unknown.
The cost of the Iran war is increasing for India's economy and government finances
India's economy was doing well a few months back. India's economy was humming along nicely a few months ago.
India is now counting the costs of the Iran War, which, according to economists, will continue to rise if the deadlock in the U.S.-Iran conflict?remains unresolved' and if oil supplies are blocked.
India is the third largest oil consumer and importer in the world. It ships about 90% of its crude oil. This makes its economy one of the most exposed to war-related disruptions and war-related wars.
India announced a series of measures on Friday to limit the impact of the rising rupee on foreign exchange reserves and the economy. Analysts say that the overall drag on growth, inflation, and government finances will continue to grow as long as the oil price remains high.
Michael Langham is an emerging markets economist with Aberdeen Investments.
As a result of the Iran War, there will be disruptions in the supply of fertilisers, which could impact important crops such as wheat, at a time when farmers are bracing themselves for the El Nino weather phenomenon, which often signals drought.
Langham stated that the RBI will find it increasingly difficult to "look past the energy price shocks from the Strait of Hormuz" due to the overlap of these supply-side shocks.
Sanjay malhotra, the governor of India's central banking system, spoke at the end last year about an "unusual Goldilocks phase" for India's economy, as it moved into 2026. The inflation rate was falling, and the growth rate remained strong.
The Iran war has changed that.
India's oil and gas import bill increased by 53% from March to April, leading forecasts that the BoP deficit (basically money entering the economy minus money leaving) would balloon.
HSBC believes that the series of measures taken on Friday could help limit currency damage. It had predicted that India's BoP would reach $65 billion by 2026-27. However, the new measures are expected to reduce the deficit by $30 billion. India's BoP was $25.2 billion in?2025-26, or 0.6% GDP.
India has also reduced gold imports. It is urging its citizens to limit their foreign travel, and to use public transport more to reduce oil consumption.
"DIFFICULT POSITION"
The macro-picture is much more difficult.
After the war started on February 28, benchmark international oil prices soared to almost $120 per barrel. Gas prices have fallen, but remain 30% higher than before.
The central bank expects an average inflation rate of 5.1% for the year ending March 2027. This is up from the April reading of 3.48%, while the economic growth will drop to 6.6%, down from 7.7% the year before.
Interest rate swap markets have priced in at least 25 basis points of rates increases over the next three month and over 75 basis points for the next year.
Sat Duhra is the portfolio manager of Janus Henderson Investors' Asia ex-Japan Equity Team.
Duhra stated that the energy shock will?undermine growth and put pressure on government finances.
He said that any attempt to reduce public sector capex in order to stabilize conditions could lead to a further slowdown of growth. This puts policymakers in an awkward position.
Strong OIL DEMAND
India delayed raising fuel retail prices because import costs grew. Petrol and Diesel are only up 10% since then compared to 50% or more for some other oil-importing Asian countries.
The government is the largest shareholder in the major retail companies, and although the prices of petrol and diesel are not regulated, it exerts a significant influence.
High prices in other markets have helped to balance the undersupplied market.
Analysts say that the government's strategy of not compensating fuel retailers will cost it financially, as it would reduce its ability to deal with the crisis.
A government official has said that the government's subsidy on fertiliser is likely to increase by 20% in 2026/27. The agrarian sector of India's economy, which employs nearly half the country, is dependent on fertiliser. However, this may be even more important in 2018 due to El Nino and its potential for drought.
The government has also reduced gasoline and gasoil tax, resulting in a monthly revenue loss of 140 billion rupees.
The government targets a fiscal surplus of?4.3% this year. However, a poll predicted it would rise to 4.7%. Some economists even predict it could reach 5%.
The Indian credit rating agency Crisil anticipates that retail oil prices will continue to rise, but at a slower pace. This will have an impact on a larger audience.
In a report, it stated that "the broader effect" would reverberate throughout the economy due to higher transport costs. This will push up food prices and core inflation.
(source: Reuters)