Latest News
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US diesel hits $4 per gallon mark as Middle East conflict drags on
As the 'U.S. - Israel 'war against Iran dragged along, the average U.S. diesel price surpassed $4 a litre?for nearly a?two year period on Wednesday. The Middle East conflict has paralyzed the Strait of Hormuz - a major global trade route through which 10% of the world's diesel supply passes. According to data from a market tracker, GasBuddy, the national average price for diesel has crossed $4 per gallon for first time since April 24th 2024. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan said that the average price could rise to $4.25 - $4.45 per gallon in the coming days. However, any new developments may have an impact on the market. U.S. Diesel Futures reached $3.45 on their highest level on Wednesday. This is the highest since September 2024. According to Alex Hodes, StoneX's director of marketing strategy, diesel inventories are in short supply due to a structural shortage in refining capacity. This makes it more sensitive to the conflict in Middle East. Hodes said that the disruption in Middle East crude oil supplies also affects distillate supplies disproportionately because crude oil from this region tends to have higher distillate grades.
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Cuban oil embargo causes blackouts across the country
The national electricity union UNE?said that a power outage had struck a majority of Cuba including Havana's capital on Wednesday. This was as the island's socialist-run government 'faces 'increasing' pressure from the Trump Administration. Cuba experienced several major blackouts over the past few years, before the U.S. stopped oil shipments. Cuba's government has blamed its economic crisis on decades of?economic?sanctions imposed by the U.S. The current shortages have been exacerbated by the recent scarcity of oil due to U.S.-imposed pressure from Venezuela and Mexico. The UNE electricity 'union' said that it was working on restoring services and that the 'blackout' affected the entire island, from Camaguey in the central province to Pinar del Rio at the far western end. Cuba's Energy Ministry said that the Felton 1 thermoelectric plant in Holguin Province in eastern Cuba is still?online, and recovery protocols are in place. Venezuela, Cuba's largest oil supplier, hasn't sent any shipments since the end of December. After the capture of its President,?Nicolas?Maduro in an attack by the U.S. on the capital at the beginning of January, the U.S. now controls the country's oil exports. Mexico announced it would stop supplying oil to Cuba after the U.S. threatened to impose tariffs on countries that supply Cuba with oil. The government has rationed services due to the power cuts. (Reporting and editing by Brendan O'Boyle, Daina Beth Solon and Sandra Gaillard)
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US approves construction of Gates-backed TerraPower nuclear reactor in Wyoming
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission announced on Wednesday that it has approved the construction of a small nuclear reactor in Wyoming, backed by Bill Gates. TerraPower's 345 megawatt sodium-cooled Kemmerer reactor was approved by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, marking the first commercial reactor approval in almost a decade. The reactor is to be constructed near a coal-fired power plant, and will become operational in the early 2030s. TerraPower announced in a press release that it will begin construction within the next few weeks. The NRC stated that the plant includes a system of energy storage to temporarily boost output up to 500 MW. The NRC completed its technical review of the design in less that 18 months. Last year, President Donald Trump issued executive orders to speed up the permitting process by the NRC. He wanted to reduce a multi-year permit process to just 18 months. TerraPower's Natrium nuclear reactor would use a fuel known as high-assay, low-enriched Uranium (HALEU), which is traditionally only produced in Russia. The NRC stated that its staff is expecting to issue the permit shortly. The U.S. Department of Energy has awarded American Centrifuge Operating (a subsidiary of Centrus Energy) and General Matter (backed by tech billionaire, Peter Thiel), $900 million to each of them for the 'development of domestic HALEU. HALEU fuel is uranium enriched to almost 20%, instead of the current 5% level used in reactors. HALEU is only enriched up to 12%, as non-proliferation activists want to avoid militants attempting to make crude nuclear weapons from targeting its supply chain. The Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program of the DOE provides funding up to $2 billion for the Natrium reactor.
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Pentagon seeks fresh supply of 13 essential minerals a day before Iran attack
A document reviewed by? showed that the U.S. Military asked mining companies to boost supplies of 13 critical minerals, which are used in semiconductors, weapons, and other products. This request was made the day before the U.S., Israel and other countries launched their attacks on Iran. It is the latest in a series of recent requests by Washington for greater access to materials widely used in warfare. The Pentagon has asked the Defense Industrial Base Consortium, a grouping of companies, universities, and other suppliers to the military, for proposals by the 20th of March on projects that would mine, process, or recycle "select minerals", according to the document. No indication was given as to whether or not the timing of the strike on Iran was deliberately coordinated. List of 13 minerals wanted includes: arsenic (bismuth), bismuth (germanium), graphite (hafnium), nickel,?samarium(tungsten), vanadium, zirconium, ytterbium and yttrium. The Pentagon requested detailed information on the costs of building a mine or processing plant, including labor,?material and other expenses. According to the request, projects could receive development funds from $100 million up to $500 million. The document didn't specify why these 13 minerals were selected. China, which is the world's largest producer, has imposed export restrictions on some minerals, including graphite, germanium and yttrium. The aerospace industry has been alerted to the shortage of yttrium. As one of 17 rare earths yttrium can be used to create coatings which prevent engines and turbines melting at high temperature. Engines?cannot function without regular application of these coatings. Indonesia is the world's largest producer of nickel. Jakarta has slowed down?exports? of this metal, which is widely used in stainless steel production and battery production. Requests for comments from the White House, DIBC, and Pentagon were not immediately responded to. Separately, on Wednesday, the Defense Logistics Agency, which purchases a wide range of goods for the U.S. Military, asked miners for information on acquiring lithium and chromium for stockpiles. Reporting by Ernest Scheyder, with additional reporting from Jarrett Renshaw and Polina Devitt in London. Editing by Veronica Brown.
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NYT reports that Iranian intelligence operatives have expressed an openness to dialogue with CIA about ending the war.
The 'New York Times' reported that operatives from Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence had expressed a willingness to talk with the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency about?ending the war. NYT reported that the offer came through a spy agency of an unnamed Middle Eastern nation, and officials from another Western country who spoke on condition of anonymity. Iran's semiofficial news agency, Tasnim, reported that a source in the Iranian intelligence ministry rejected the report. It called it "absolute lies" and "psychological warfare during a?war". The White House - and the CIA - did not respond immediately to a comment request. The report said that officials in Washington were sceptical about whether Iran or Trump's administration was really prepared for a "off-ramp", if not immediately. The Iranian ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva on Tuesday, after Israel and the U.S. launched joint strikes on Iran, ruled out a possible negotiating with the United States. On Tuesday, President Donald 'Trump' said that Tehran was willing to talk with the United States but it was too late as they continued their military campaign against Iran. (Reporting from Anusha in Bengaluru; additional reporting by Dubai Newsroom; editing by Gareth Jones, Emelia Sithole Matarise and Emelia Sithole)
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Aluminum supply problems intensify after Bahrain stops shipments and Qatar shuts down its smelter
Aluminium Bahrain, one of the largest smelters in the world, informed customers that it had halted all shipments because of the "widening" Middle East conflict. This exacerbated supply concerns following a Qatari melter shutdown the day before. After the news, the London Metal Exchange saw an increase of up to 5.1% in aluminium prices to $3,418 per ton, the highest since April 2022. Analysts said that prices could rise even further, since about 8% world supply is made in the region. Goldman Sachs stated on Monday that prices could reach $3,600 per ton if the production in this region is lost for one month. SHIPPING HALTED in the Strait of?HORMUZ Alba declared force majeure Wednesday and informed the affected customers about delays, according to a spokesperson. The shipping through the Strait of Oman between Iran and Oman has almost halted after Iranian vessels retaliated against U.S. We are unable to ship because of what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz. We're producing, but the metals are here in Alba," said the spokesperson. The spokesperson said that "the force majeure... was not caused by any disruption or damage at the smelter." The team is actively working to identify alternative shipping solutions in order to minimize the impact. Alba's website states that its smelter, which is the world's largest outside China, will produce 1.62 million tons of aluminum in 2025. The?price for lightweight metals used in construction and transport, as well as packaging, has risen 9% since Wednesday, following the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran at the weekend. QATARI Smelter? TO SHUT Investors were on edge on Tuesday after the news that Qatari Qatalum smelter began to?shut down? and Norsk Hydro, its shareholder, issued a "force majeure" notice. Hydro has said that the shutdown of its 648,000-metric-ton smelter is expected to be complete by the end of March. A full restart may take up to 12 months. Smelters from Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, as well as the United Arab Emirates, ship more than 5 million metric tons of metal through the Hormuz Strait every year. Bauxite, alumina and other large quantities of metal are transported 'the other way' to feed smelters. The European Aluminium Premiums (paid on top of LME metal prices) have increased to $436 per ton in April EPDc2, which is the highest level for 3-1/2 years. Meanwhile, U.S. Premiums have reached a new record of $1.075.
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SSR Mining, a Canadian company, will sell its Copler mine stake to Turkey for $1.5 billion.
SSR Mining, a Canadian company, announced on Wednesday that it had signed a binding agreement to sell its 80% stake in Turkey’s Copler Mine to Cengiz Holding A.S. in exchange for $1.5 billion. This boosted its stock by more than 12%. The gold miner also said that it was'reviewing its remaining platform in Turkey including a 20% interest in the Hod maden development project. The deal, which is expected to be completed in the third quarter of this year, will cover all SSR's mining licenses and assets located in eastern Anatolia. This includes Copler and nearby satellite deposits. Cengiz Holding A.S., one of Turkey's biggest industrial companies, has operations in copper, gold and aluminium mining and processing. SSR Mining suspended operations in Copler Mine, 2024. This was after a landslide that left at least nine missing miners. The company then conducted a review on the mine. According to RBC Capital Markets' analysts, SSR has spent approximately $149 million in reclamation and remediation activities since the landslide of February 2024. TD Cowen’s Steven Green noted that the purchase price was attractive “for a?what's seen as a?distressed asset." Green said that the deal also "supports" the Canadian miner’s strategic shift to assets in the Americas. (Reporting by Varun Sahay in Bengaluru; Editing by Shreya Biswas)
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Sources say that Chinese investors are considering selling their stake in Redexis Gas Network Operator.
People with knowledge of the discussions said that Chinese investors Guoxin Guotong Fund and CNIC Corporation are considering selling their 33.3% share in Spanish 'gas network operator Redexis' as the country prepares to introduce a new framework for remuneration. Three sources confirmed that the two investors had begun a process of hiring?advisers in order to evaluate the sale. Two sources say that a?deal could value Redexis between 2 billion and 2.5 billion?euros (2.3-$2.9billion). * In 2018, the two Chinese investors bought?33.3% Redexis. According to the website of Redexis, pension funds?Arbejdsmarkedets Tillaegspension?and Universities?Superannuation Scheme own each 33.3%. Sources say that pension funds and infrastructure funds are likely to bid for the stake. * Guoxin Guotong Fund & CNIC Corporation did not reply to a request for comments via email. Redexis declined comment. According to Spain's competition watchdog, a new?"regulatory framework" for?gas pipelines covering the period of 2027-2032 is expected to be approved later this year. Sources said that the'regulatory changes' are expected to lead to more asset sales, as buyers prefer to buy regulated assets at the beginning of the regulatory cycle to reduce uncertainty.
Take Five: Make or Break
The week will be dominated by trade talks between Washington and Beijing, and Canada, as well as central bank decisions from the United States, Canada, and Europe. Meanwhile, Argentina's stock markets are digesting the results of a decisive election for President Javier Milei.
Dhara Ranasinghe, Alden B. Bentley, Lewis Krauskopf, and Rodrigo Campos in New York and Kevin Buckland, in Tokyo, give you all the information about what to expect in the world markets this week.
1/ A MIDTERM DRAMA Argentina’s bonds and shares are expected to rise on Monday, after President Javier Milei’s party won a decisive victory in the crucial midterm elections on Sunday. This is a requirement to keep economic reforms in motion and a U.S. backstop has been put in place. The right-wing president Javier Milei is now expected to consolidate his minority position, after his economic reform program that has crushed inflation and his deepening of ties with Washington delivered some the best returns in emerging markets since he assumed office in December 2023. But despite the unprecedented support of U.S. president Donald Trump, which included direct intervention in the FX market, a central bank swap line worth $20 billion and the prospect for another $20 billion loan, the peso has continued to fall to record lows.
Since mid-April, when the foreign exchange controls were partially lifted, the peso's value has fallen by about 25%. It is also down close to 30% from the beginning of the year.
IT'S AI, STUPID
The earnings of megacap tech companies and growth companies are the highlight of a week full of corporate results in the United States that may shed light on how the "AI trade" is doing. Microsoft, Apple Alphabet Amazon Meta Platforms and Amazon are all "Magnificent 7" megacaps that dominate equity indices. They report earnings. This week, one-third of the S&P 500 companies will report earnings, including oil giants Exxon, Chevron, and Visa and Mastercard.
Investors will also examine data to determine the cost and impact of a shift in U.S. Trade Policy. According to LSEG data, S&P 500 companies have reported a 9.2% increase in Q3 earnings compared to the previous year. A greater than usual number of companies has exceeded profit expectations so far.
3/COUNTING on a CUT The markets are almost certain that the U.S. Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates a quarter point when they conclude their meeting on Wednesday. They are also confident about another reduction in December.
This year-end cut could be less obvious if the shutdown continues, as data-driven policymakers will have no official economic indicators. Trump will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping Thursday, as part of a visit to Asia. The meeting is scheduled to take place on the sidelines the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation CEO Summit.
Trump on Monday
The U.S. will "come away" with a trade agreement.
Recent trade tensions have escalated and there is a dispute over China's export restrictions for rare earths.
U.S. curbs
The Fed will continue to be concerned about the impact of Trump's threats to impose tariffs on all technology exports.
It's not all about the FED. That's correct, the Bank of Canada will also cut rates on Wednesday, despite Trump's announcement to terminate all trade negotiations with Canada. The European Central Bank will meet on Thursday. It appears to be "nothing new to see" as a poll of economics predicts that it will likely leave rates at 2% for the third consecutive meeting and remain on hold through the end of the calendar year. The downside risks of the economy are causing traders to predict a 65% chance that a quarter point cut will be made by mid-2026. However, headwinds are on the horizon. Aside from the trade tensions, France is also experiencing political turmoil and there will be an election on Wednesday in The Netherlands that is dominated by populist currents. ECB head Christine Lagarde could be asked if the bloc is still in a good place.
5/HIKE HOLDED? Bank of Japan will likely hold off on a rate increase next Thursday, opting instead for a hike in December or early January. This is not because of pressure from Japan's new dovish premier. Sanae Takaichi - the new fiscal and monetary dovish premier - is expected to continue tightening monetary policy, according to two-thirds polled. However, she has repeatedly stated that the central banks should align with government policies. Analysts and traders instead point to BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda’s consistently cautious tone. This is especially true on the potential fallout from tariffs, despite his board making a conspicuously aggressive pivot last month.
Most analysts are looking at a December increase as soon as possible, based on his desire to have more data. This includes U.S. holiday shopping trends.
(source: Reuters)