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India's robust LNG imports are Asia's standout, but higher rates might weigh: Russell

Asia's imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are showing contrasting characteristics in May, with strength in normally pricesensitive buyers like India, but a softer pattern in the developed economies such as Japan and South Korea.

The top-importing continent is on track to receive about 23.61 million metric lots of the super-chilled fuel this month, according to data assembled by product analysts Kpler.

This is up slightly from April's 23.23 million lots, although daily May's arrivals are a touch weaker, while they are more powerful than the 20.75 million from May 2023.

However while the overall LNG import figures are reasonably steady for Asia this month, the breakdown is rather at odds with current motions in the area rate.

India's May imports are approximated at 2.46 million tons, up from 2.03 million in April and the greatest month since October 2020.

The rise in arrivals comes even as the spot cost for shipment to North Asia << LNG-AS > has actually been rallying, rising from a. near three-year low of $8.30 per million British thermal systems. ( mmBtu) in the week to Feb. 23 to a five-month high of $12.30. last week.

What is worth keeping in mind is that the freights getting here in India. in May would have been protected in a window from later February. to early April, a time when area rates were rising but were. still below the $10 per mmBtu level.

Now that the area cost has actually risen decisively above that. level, it raises the possibility that Indian utilities will. downsize purchases as LNG will no longer be competitive in the. domestic market.

There may be some early signs of this with Kpler tracking. 1.13 million tons of arrivals up until now in June, more than half of. that originating from the United States, implying those cargoes would. have actually been secured at rates before the recent surge.

Another South Asian purchaser with robust LNG imports is. Pakistan, with Kpler tracking arrivals of 730,000 loads in May,. which together with the exact same volume in January marks the strongest. result since June 2022.

Qatar is the significant supplier to both India and Pakistan and. it's most likely that the South Asian nations had the ability to protect. competitive terms for spot freights provided the Gulf producer is. likely to have actually seen lower need from Europe in recent months.

LNG vessels have actually been avoiding the Red Sea and Suez Canal. because of attacks on shipping by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi. group, although so far no LNG provider has actually been targeted.

This suggests Qatar's LNG shipments to Europe have actually been. declining, dropping to 870,000 tons in May, the lowest since. August and below a recent peak of 1.23 million loads in. January.

However they might be recovering with Kpler tracking exports of. 1.02 million tons of LNG to Europe up until now for June, and an. ongoing healing in volumes to Europe may cut those available at. discounts to India and Pakistan.

NORTH ASIA REDUCES

In contrast to the strength in LNG imports in South Asia,. those in North Asia were softer in May.

China, the world's leading buyer, is on track to receive 5.96. million tons in May, below 6.47 million in April and the. least expensive month-to-month overall considering that February, according to Kpler.

However, China's imports are likely to go beyond the 5.80. million lots from May in 2015, continuing the trend up until now. this year of greater LNG arrivals amid a recuperating economy and. constrained hydropower output.

Japan, the world's second-biggest LNG purchaser, is expected to. import 4.83 million heaps in May, down from 5.36 million in. April, however higher than the 4.13 million from May last year.

Third-ranked South Korea is on track for May imports of 3.45. million loads, down from 3.99 million in April but greater than. the 3.19 million from May last year.

The overall dynamic for the huge 3 North Asian importers. is that arrivals are trending lower, in line with typical seasonal. moves, however imports are greater on a yearly basis, which does. provide essential support for the higher area rate.

However, the recent spike higher in spot rates might begin to. undermine imports in South Asia from July onwards, along with in. China, where a rise above $10 per mmBtu makes it hard for. LNG to contend in the domestic market.

The opinions revealed here are those of the author, a writer. .

(source: Reuters)